• Title/Summary/Keyword: NCEP-2

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Characteristic Variations of Upper Jet Stream over North-East Asian Region during the Recent 35 Years (1979~2013) Based on Four Reanalysis Datasets (재분석자료들을 이용한 최근 35년(1979~2013) 동북아시아 상층제트의 변동특성)

  • So, Eun-Mi;Suh, Myoung-Seok
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.235-248
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we analyzed the three dimensional variations (latitude, longitude, and height of Jet core) and wind speed of upper Jet stream in the East Asian region using recent 35 years (1979~2013) of four reanalysis data (NCEP-R2, MERRA, ERA-Interim. and JRA-55). Most of Jet core is located in $30.0{\sim}37.5^{\circ}N$ and $13.0{\sim}157.5^{\circ}E$ although there are slight differences among the four reanalysis data. The wind speed differences among reanalysis are about $3m\;s^{-1}$ regardless of seasons, the weakest in NCEP-R2 and the strongest in JRA-55. Although significance level is not high, most of reanalysis showed that the Jet core has a tendency of southward moving during spring and winter, but moving northward during summer and fall. This amplified seasonal variation of Jet core suggests that seasonal variations of weather/climate can be increased in the East Asian region. The longitude of Jet core has a tendency of systematically westward moving and decreasing of zonal variations regardless of averaging methods and reanalysis data. In general, the Jet core shows a tendency of moving south-west-ward and upward, getting intensified during spring and winter regardless of the reanalysis data. However, the Jet core shows a tendency of moving westward and downward, and getting weakened during summer. In fall, there were no distinctive trends not only in wind speed but also three dimensional locations compared to other seasons. Although the significance levels are not high and variation patterns are slightly different according to the reanalysis data, our findings are more or less different from the previous results. So, more works are needed to clarify the three dimensional variation patterns of Jet core over the East Asian region as a result of global warming.

VARIABILITY OF THE LATENT HEAT FLUX DURING 1988-2005

  • Iwasaki, Shinsuke;Kubota, Masahisa
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.289-292
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    • 2008
  • Recently, several satellite data analyses projects and numerical weather prediction (NWP) reanalysis projects have produced the ocean surface Latent Heat Flux (LHF) data sets in the global coverage. Comparisons of these LHF data sets showed substantial discrepancies in the LHF values. Recently, the increase of LHF in during 1970s-1990s over the global ocean is shown by the LHF data that have been developed at the Objective Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes (OAFlux) project. It is interesting to investigate the existence of the increase of LHF over a global ocean in the other LHF products. It is interesting to investigate the existence of the increase of LHF over a global ocean in the other LHF products. In this study, we assessed the consistencies and discrepancies of the inter-annual variability and decadal trend for the period 1988-2005 among six LHF products ((J-OFURO2, HOAPS3, IFREMER, NCEP1,2 and OAFlux) over the global ocean. As results, all LHF products showed a positive trend. In particular, the positive trend in satellite-based data analyses (J-OFURO2, HOAPS3, IFREMER) is larger than that in reanalysis products (NCEP1/2). Also, the consistencies and discrepancies are shown on the spatial patterns of the LHF trends across the six data sets. The positive trend of LHF is remarkable in the regions of western boundary currents such as the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream in all LHF data sets. But, the discrepancies are shown on the spatial patterns of the LHF trends in tropics and subtropics. These discrepancies are primarily caused by the differences of the input meteorological state variables, particularly for the air specific humidity, used to calculate LHF.

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Uncertainty in the Estimation of Arctic Surface Temperature during Early 1900s Revealed by the Comparison between HadCRU4 and 20CR Reanalysis (HadCRU4 관측 온도자료와 20CR 재분석 자료 비교로부터 확인된 1900년대 초반 극지역 평균 온도 추정의 불확실성)

  • Kim, Baek-Min;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2015
  • To discuss whether we have credible estimations about historical surface temperature evolution since industrial revolution or not, present study investigates consistencies and differences of averaged surface air temperature since 1900 between the multiple data sources: Hadley Center Climate Research Unit (HadCRU4) surface air temperature data, ECMWF 20 Century Reanalysis data (ERA20CR), and NCEP 20 Century Reanalysis data (NCEP20CR). Averaged surface temperatures are obtained for the global, polar (90S~60S, 60N~0N), midlatitude (60S~30S, 30N~60N), tropical (30S~30N) region, separately. From the analysis, we show that: 1) spatio-temporal inhomogenity and scarcity of HadCRU4 data are not major obstacles in the reliable estimation of global surface air temperature. 2) Globally averaged temperature variability is largely contributed by those of tropical and midlatitude, which occupy more than 70% of earth surface in area. 3) Both data show consistent temperature variability in tropical region. 4) ERA20CR does not capture warm period over Arctic region in early 1900s, which is obvious feature in HadCRU4 data. Discrepancies among datasets suggest that high-level caution is needed especially in the interpretation of large Arctic warming in the early 1900s, which is often regarded as a natural variability in the Arctic region.

Wave Modeling considering Water Level Changes and Currents Effects (수위변화와 흐름효과를 고려한 파랑모델링)

  • Eum, Ho-Sik;Kang, Tae-Soon;Nam, Soo-Yong;Jeong, Won-Moo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.383-396
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    • 2016
  • In this study, wave model was conducted on the presence or absence of water level changes and currents effects in coastal waters coexisting with waves and currents, then the results were compared. The flow field applied the results of the RIAMOM model and the wave model applied the SWAN model. Among ECMWF, NCEP and JMA, wind data applied JMA data sets which agreed well with the observed data comparatively. Numerical simulation was conducted for 8 months from January to August 2016. For each case, the deviation of wave height was calculated for the high wave of more than 2.5 m for comparison with observed data. As a result, the deviation of wave height was not significant both considering water level changes and currents effects or not at wave observation stations installed in deep waters. However, a significant deviation of wave height of 5~10% was obtained depending on water level changes and currents effects at the comparison point in shallow waters.

Evaluation of Clinical Usefulness of Gamma Glutamyl Transferase as a Surrogate Marker for Metabolic Syndrome in Non Obese Adult Men (비만하지 않은 성인 남성에서 대사증후군의 대리 표지자로서 감마 글루타밀 전이효소의 임상적 유용성 평가)

  • Shin, Kyung-A;Kim, Eun Jae
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.10 no.12
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    • pp.146-155
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    • 2020
  • This study was to evaluate the usefulness of gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT) as a surrogate marker predicting metabolic syndrome. 7,155 non obese men over the age of 20 were studied as subjects. The criteria for diagnosing MetS were the National Cholesterol Education Program - Third Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP-ATP III). The risk of developing MetS according to GGT was conducted logistic regression analysis, and the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve was obtained to confirm GGT ability to predict the risk of MetS. Regardless of age and body mass index, MetS had a 7.09 times higher risk of onset in the fourth quartile than in the first quartile of GGT (p<0.001). The AUC (area under the curve) of GGT for the diagnosis of MetS was 0.715, and the cutoff value of GGT was 40.0 U/L, the sensitivity was 65.0%, and the specificity was 70.2%. Therefore, GGT is considered to be a useful diagnostic index for diagnosing MetS.

The Character of Distribution of Solar Radiation in Mongolia based on Meteorological Satellite Data (위성자료를 이용한 몽골의 일사량 분포 특성)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Jeon, Sang-Hee;Choi, Young-Jean;Lee, Seung-Woo;Park, Young-San;Lee, Kyu-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.139-147
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    • 2012
  • Mongolia's solar-meteorological resources map has been developed using satellite data and reanalysis data. Solar radiation was calculated using solar radiation model, in which the input data were satellite data from SRTM, TERA, AQUA, AURA and MTSAT-1R satellites and the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. The calculated results are validated by the DSWRF (Downward Short-Wave Radiation Flux) from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Mongolia is composed of mountainous region in the western area and desert or semi-arid region in middle and southern parts of the country. South-central area comprises inside the continent with a clear day and less rainfall, and irradiation is higher than other regions on the same latitude. The western mountain region is reached a lot of solar energy due to high elevation but the area is covered with snow (high albedo) throughout the year. The snow cover is a cause of false detection from the cloud detection algorithm of satellite data. Eventually clearness index and solar radiation are underestimated. And southern region has high total precipitable water and aerosol optical depth, but high solar radiation reaches the surface as it is located on the relatively lower latitude. When calculated solar radiation is validated by DSWRF from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, monthly mean solar radiation is 547.59 MJ which is approximately 2.89 MJ higher than DSWRF. The correlation coefficient between calculation and reanalysis data is 0.99 and the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is 6.17 MJ. It turned out to be highest correlation (r=0.94) in October, and lowest correlation (r=0.62) in March considering the error of cloud detection with melting and yellow sand.

Assessment of Climate Change Effect on Drought in Korea (기후변화가 한반도 가뭄에 미치는 영향평가)

  • Kyoung, Min-Soo;Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1457-1461
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    • 2009
  • 기후변화로 인한 강수의 양과 패턴의 변화는 가뭄이나 홍수와 같은 극한사상의 발생가능성을 점차 증가시키고 있다. 이러한 극한사상의 발생에 대비하고자 기후변화가 가뭄이나 홍수에 미치는 영향 평가에 대한 연구가 전 세계적으로 활발히 진행 중이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 월 단위로 IPCC를 통해서 제공되는 Global Climate Model(GCM)중 하나인 BCM2 모형(A2 시나리오 선택)을 기반으로 기후변화가 한반도 가뭄에 미치는 영향평가 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 우선 전구단위 기후모형인 BCM2 모형을 격자단위 관측자료인 NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)자료를 이용하여 서울기상관측소 지점으로 축소하였다. 또한 축소된 강우자료의 편의를 보정하기 위하여 Quantile mapping 기법을 적용하였으며, 최종적으로 제시된 서울지점의 월 강우를 대상으로 표준강수지수(SPI)를 산정하여 기후변화가 서울지점의 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 분석결과 기후변화를 고려할 경우, 전반적인 가뭄의 심도는 크게 깊어지지 않았으나 가뭄의 지속기간이 길어져 가뭄으로 인한 피해가 더욱 증가할 것으로 예상되었다.

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Estimation of Design Rainfalls Considering BCM2 Simulation Results (BCM2 모의 결과를 반영한 목표연도 확률강우량 산정)

  • Lee, Chang Hwan;Kim, Tae-Woong;Kyoung, Minsoo;Kim, Hung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3B
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    • pp.269-276
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    • 2010
  • Climatic disasters are globally soaring due to recent acceleration of global warming. Especially the occurrence frequency of heavy rainfalls is increasing since the rainfall intensity is increasing due to the change of rainfall pattern, This study proposed the non-stationary frequency analysis for estimating design rainfalls in a design target year, considering the change of rainfall pattern through the climatic change scenario. The annual rainfalls, which are regionally downscaled from the BCM2 (A2 scenario) and NCEP data using a K-NN method, were used to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution in a design target year, based on the relationship between annual mean rainfalls and distribution parameters. A Gumbel distribution with a probability weighted method was used in this study. Seoul rainfall data, which are the longest observations in Korea, were used to verified the proposed method. Then, rainfall data at 7 stations, which have statistical trends in observations in 2006, were used to estimate the design rainfalls in 2020. The results indicated that the regional annual rainfalls, which were estimated through the climate change scenario, significantly affect on the design rainfalls in future.

Cluster Analysis of Synoptic Scale Meteorological Characteristics on High PM10 Concentration Episodes in the Southeastern Part of Korean Peninsula (한반도 남동 지역에서 발생한 고농도 미세먼지 사례의 종관 기상학적 군집 특성 분석)

  • Chae, DaEun;Lee, Kangyeol;Lee, Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.447-458
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    • 2020
  • This study presents the K-means clustering analysis-based classification of the meteorological patterns affecting the occurrence of high PM10 concentration in the southeastern region of the Korean peninsula for the last five years (2014-2018). Regional differences in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam related to high PM10 episodes, were clarified through the statistical comparison study using synoptic scale meteorological elements using NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/FNL (Final Operational Global Analysis) re-analysis meteorological data. Meteorological patterns were classified into a total of five categories (C1-C5). The incidence of each cluster was 24.8% (C1), 21.3% (C2), 20.4% (C3), 17.3% (C4), and 16.2% (C5), respectively. The high PM10 concentration in the southeastern region resulted from long and short range transports (C1, C3, C5) from outside of the region, and the emissions (C2, C4) inside the region. In the high PM10 episodes in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, meteorological characteristics such as different geopotential height and wind speed at 500 hPa in each cluster and the change in the location of high pressure over Korean Peninsula is strongly associated with the dispersion of PM10 around inventories in the region and the tendency of long-range transportation of PM10 emitted from outside of region.

The Differences of Metabolic Syndrome Risk Factors according to Obesity and Abdominal Obesity in Elderly Korean Women (한국 노인여성의 비만, 복부비만 기준에 따른 대사증후군 위험요인의 차이)

  • Shin, Kyung-A
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.304-311
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    • 2016
  • The study was performed to examine the metabolic syndrome risk factors in accordance with the obesity types based on body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference cutoffs. The diagnosis of metabolic syndrome closely adhered to the NCEP-ATP III criteria, and obesity was defined using the WHO Asian-Pacific criteria. We used the data from 591 elderly women, all aged over 65 years. They were divided into four groups: The normal group (n=272), the obesity group (n=124), abdominal obesity group (n=19), and obesity-abdominal obesity group (n=176). The obesity-abdominal obesity group was the most prevalent group of low HDL-cholesterol (p=0.009), hypertriglyceridemia (p=0.025), abdominal obesity (p<0.001), and metabolic syndrome (p<0.001). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the obesity-abdominal obesity group had the highest odds ratio in predicting metabolic syndrome (OR: 10.638, 95% CI: 6.053~18.697). Therefore, the obesity-abdominal obesity group was the strongest predictive factor of metabolic syndrome risk in Korean elderly women.