• Title/Summary/Keyword: NCEP

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Predictability Study of Snowfall Case over South Korea Using TIGGE Data on 28 December 2012 (TIGGE 자료를 이용한 2012년 12월 28일 한반도 강설사례 예측성 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Min;Han, Sang-Un;Won, Hye Young;Ha, Jong-Chul;Lee, Jeong-Soon;Sim, Jae-Kwan;Lee, Yong Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2014
  • This study compared ensemble mean and probability forecasts of snow depth amount associated with winter storm over South Korea on 28 December 2012 at five operational forecast centers (CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, KMA, and UMKO). And cause of difference in predicted snow depth at each Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was investigated by using THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. This snowfall event occurred due to low pressure passing through South Sea of Korea. Amount of 6 hr accumulated snow depth was more than 10 cm over southern region of South Korea In this case study, ECMWF showed best prediction skill for the spatio-temporal distribution of snow depth. At first, ECMWF EPS has been consistently enhancing the indications present in ensemble mean snow depth forecasts from 7-day lead time. Secondly, its ensemble probabilities in excess of 2~5 cm/6 hour have been coincided with observation frequencies. And this snowfall case could be predicted from 5-day lead time by using 10-day lag ensemble mean 6 hr accumulated snow depth distribution. In addition, the cause of good performances at ECMWF EPS in predicted snow depth amounts was due to outstanding prediction ability of forming inversion layer with below $0^{\circ}C$ temperature in low level (below 850 hPa) according to $35^{\circ}N$ at 1-day lead time.

The Vertical Distribution of Radiative Flux and Heating Rate at King Sejong Station in West Antarctica (남극 세종기지에서 복사 속 및 복사 가열률의 연직 분포)

  • Lee, Kyu-Tae;Lee, Bang-Yong;Lee, Won-Hak;Jee, Joon-Bum;Lee, Min-Kyung
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 2005
  • The vertical profiles of radiative flux and heating rate at King Sejong Station in West Antarctica were calculated with radiative transfe model by Chou and Suarez (1999) and Chou et al (2001). To run this model, the profiles of temperature, mixing ratios of water vapor and ozone at King Sejng Station were derived from ECMWF Reanalysis data. The surface temperature and albedo were also derived from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and CERES data. The radiative flux strongly depends on the cloud optical path length that was calculated using the measured W-h data and model by Chou and Lee(1996). Durins the period of $2000{\sim}2001$ (12 and 18 UTC), the correlation coefficient between calculated and measured downward solar fluxes at surface was 0.90 and the coefficient for downward longwave flux was 0.61. The calculated net heating rates of surface layer decreased during the same period, the trend of which was in accordance with the decrease of measured temperature.

Comparison of Chronic Disease Risk by Abdominal Obesity in Korean Adult Women - Using Data from the 2013~2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey - (한국 성인 여자에서 복부비만에 따른 만성질환 위험 비교 - 2013~2014년 국민건강영양조사 자료를 이용하여 -)

  • Kim, Mi Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.938-945
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to investigate the risk of chronic disease as predicted by abdominal obesity in Korean adult females. Data on 2,738 adult females aged 40~64 yrs was obtained from the 2013~2014 Korean National Health Nutrition Examination Survey. The subjects were divided into normal (n=1,835), abdominal obesity (AO, n=73), and BMI-diagnosed abdominal obesity (BMI-AO, n=505) groups based on the NCEP-ATP III guidelines and by applying the KSSO definition regarding waist circumference. Triglyceride blood levels, fasting blood sugar levels, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure were higher in the AO and BMI-AO groups than in the normal group. The HDL-cholesterol levels of subjects in the two abdominal groups were lower as compared to those of subjects in the normal group. The mean adequacy ratio was lower among subjects in the AO and BMI-AO groups than among those in the normal group. Moreover, the NAR and INQ scores of some micro-nutrients in both of the abdominal obesity groups were lower than those in the normal group. Both the AO and BMI-AO groups showed significantly higher risks of hypertriglycemia, hyperglycemia, hypertension, hypoHDL-cholesterolemia, and metabolic syndrome than were shown by the normal group. Notably, as compared to the normal group, the AO group showed higher risk of hypercholesterolemia, hyperLDL-cholesterolemia, hypertriglycemia, and metabolic syndrome than did the BMI-AO group. This finding suggests that it is essential to develop prevention programs including programs for those with abdominal obesity despite their having a BMI within the normal range.

Comparison of LDL-Cholesterol direct measurement with the estimate using various formula

  • Kwon, Se Young;Na, Young-Ak
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2012
  • Low-Density Lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC) is the most important marker for the treatment of hyperlipidemia in NCEP-ATP III(National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III) guideline. Therefore, LDL cholesterol is pathologically meaningful, accurate measurement should be a top priority. Currently, LDLC is directly measured in most cases, but, the estimate is still used in mass health examination or screening test. This study is about the comparison of LDL-Cholesterol direct measurement with the estimate using various formula (Friedewald: [LDL-F=TC-HDL-TG/5], Nakajima: [LDL-N=TC-HDL-TG/4], Hattori: [LDL-H =0.94TC-0.94HDL-0.19TG], Puavilai: [LDL-P=TC-HDL-TG/6], Carvalho: [LDL-C=3(TC-HDL)/4]) for calculating more accurate value. We analyzed total cholesterol (TC), try-glyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), and LDLC levels of 210 subjects between June and November in 2011. Until now, the Friedewald formula is the most commonly used estimate for the LDLC. When Friedewald formula was applied, the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.940, showing high correlation. But, the result of the direct method was significantly different, compared with those of the Friedewald formula in triglyceride levels ${\geq}400mg/dL$(p<0.05). There was the highest correlation when we used LDL-P formula(r=0.947) in triglyceride levels <400 mg/dl. Also there was the lowest mean difference regardless of triglyceride level. Therefore, the study showed that TG/6 is more precise means of calculation than TG/5. On the other hand, the calculation of LDL-Cholesterol was underestimated, compared with direct measurement. It is necessary to have more data and modified Friedewald formula should be used for the accurate calculation.

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Long-range Transport Mechanisms of Asian Dust associated with the Synoptic Weather System

  • Kim, Yoo-Keun;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Moon, Yun-Seob;Song, Sang-Keun
    • Environmental Sciences Bulletin of The Korean Environmental Sciences Society
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    • v.10 no.S_4
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    • pp.197-206
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    • 2001
  • The long-range transport mechanisms of Asian dust were analyzed based on the synoptic weather system and numerical simulation by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and TOMS data during the periods of 1996-2001. We classified the whole weather types of eastern Asia during spring and created the representative weather types during the yellow sand events using cluster analysis and weather charts for the last 6 years(1996~2001). These long-range transport mechanisms were related to various pressure patterns including high and low, trough and ridge, and upper-level fronts. Case studies of the yellow sand events have performed by the simulation of MM5 with meteorological elements such as the horizontal wind of u and v component, potential temperature, potential vorticity, and vertical circulation during the episodic days(2~8 March 2001). In addition, the origin of the long-range transport was examined with the estimation of backward trajectory using HYSPLIT4 Model. In this paper, we concluded that three weather types at 1000 hPa, 850 hPa, 500 hPa, and 300 hPa levels were classified respectively. The dominant features were the extending continental outflow from China to Korea at 1000 hPa and 850 hPa levels, the deep trough passage and cold advection at 500 hPa and 300 hPa levels during the yellow sand events. And also, we confirmed the existence of pola $r_tropical jets in the upper-level, the behavior of potential vorticity over Korea, the estimation of potential vorticity through vertical cross section, and the transport of yellow sand through backward trajectories.es.

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Dynamically Induced Anomalies of the Japan/East Sea Surface Temperature

  • Trusenkova, Olga;Lobanov, Vyacheslav;Kaplunenko, Dmitry
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.11-29
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    • 2009
  • Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Japan/East Sea (JES) was studied using complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis. Two daily data sets were analyzed: (1) New Generation 0.05o-gridded SST from Tohoku University, Japan (July 2002-July 2006), and (2) 0.25o-gridded SST from the Japan Meteorological Agency (October 1993-November 2006). Linkages with wind stress curl were revealed using 6-h 1o-gridded surface zonal and meridional winds from ancillary data of the Sea- WiFS Project, a special National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) product (1998-2005). SST anomalies (SSTA) were obtained by removing the seasonal signal, estimated as the leading mode of the CEOF decomposition of the original SST. Leading CEOF modes of residual SSTA obtained from both data sets were consistent with each other and were characterized by annual, semiannual, and quasi-biennial time scales estimated with 95% statistical significance. The Semiannual Mode lagged 2 months behind the increased occurrence of the anticyclonic (AC) wind stress curl over the JES. Links to dynamic processes were investigated by numerical simulations using an oceanic model. The suggested dynamic forcings of SSTA are the inflow of subtropical water into the JES through the Korea Strait, divergence in the surface layer induced by Ekman suction, meridional shifts of the Subarctic Front in the western JES, AC eddy formation, and wind-driven strengthening/weakening of large-scale currents. Events of west-east SSTA movement were identified in July-September. The SSTA moved from the northeastern JES towards the continental coast along the path of the westward branch of the Tsushima Current at a speed consistent with the advective scale.

The Features of Asian Dust Events Originated in Manchuria (만주에서 발원한 황사현상 (II) -2001년 이후 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Sumin;Chun, Youngsin;Kim, Seung-Bum
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.273-286
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    • 2010
  • The northeast part of China(hereafter Manchuria) is one of Asian dust source regions along with Gobi, Inner Mongolia and Loess Plateau. In this study, a geographical survey over the area was carried out to determine its soil characteristics in June 2009. It revealed that some parts of the area, especially near Keerchin desert, consist of alkali clay soil mixed up with sand. Manchuria, where is a vast cornfield, can be a potential source region of Asian dust from fall to following spring after harvesting. The frequency of Asian dust over the region from 1996 to 2009 was examined using 3-hourly GTS SYNOP data and it showed that the occurrence of Asian dust over the region is high in the springtime. It was also revealed that snow cover is the key parameter affecting on the frequency through the analysis of NCEP reanalysis data. To scrutinize the path and structure of Asian dust from Manchuria, the event on 3~4 April 2008 and 25 January 2010 were intensively investigated with regard to features of synoptic weather patterns, satellite imagery, airstream, naked eye-observations, concentrations of PM10, 2.5 and 1.0. For this case, the Asian dust from the area reached to Korea less than a day. However, the duration time of the dust in Korea was short (< 7 hours). The average of hourly PM10 reached up to $340{\mu}g/m^{3}$ at Baengnyeondo during the period. The high PM2.5 and PM1.0 concentrations were also observed at several sites in Korea, indicating that air pollutants could be transported along with the dust.

Inter-comparison of Prediction Skills of Multiple Linear Regression Methods Using Monthly Temperature Simulated by Multi-Regional Climate Models (다중 지역기후모델로부터 모의된 월 기온자료를 이용한 다중선형회귀모형들의 예측성능 비교)

  • Seong, Min-Gyu;Kim, Chansoo;Suh, Myoung-Seok
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.669-683
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we investigated the prediction skills of four multiple linear regression methods for monthly air temperature over South Korea. We used simulation results from four regional climate models (RegCM4, SNURCM, WRF, and YSURSM) driven by two boundary conditions (NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 and ERA-Interim). We selected 15 years (1989~2003) as the training period and the last 5 years (2004~2008) as validation period. The four regression methods used in this study are as follows: 1) Homogeneous Multiple linear Regression (HMR), 2) Homogeneous Multiple linear Regression constraining the regression coefficients to be nonnegative (HMR+), 3) non-homogeneous multiple linear regression (EMOS; Ensemble Model Output Statistics), 4) EMOS with positive coefficients (EMOS+). It is same method as the third method except for constraining the coefficients to be nonnegative. The four regression methods showed similar prediction skills for the monthly air temperature over South Korea. However, the prediction skills of regression methods which don't constrain regression coefficients to be nonnegative are clearly impacted by the existence of outliers. Among the four multiple linear regression methods, HMR+ and EMOS+ methods showed the best skill during the validation period. HMR+ and EMOS+ methods showed a very similar performance in terms of the MAE and RMSE. Therefore, we recommend the HMR+ as the best method because of ease of development and applications.

INTRODUCTION OF J-OFURO LATENT HEAT FLUX VERSION 2

  • Kubota, Masahisa;Hiroyuki, Tomita;iwasaki, Shinsuke;Hihara, Tsutomu;Kawatsura, Ayako
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.306-309
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    • 2007
  • Japanese Ocean Flux Data Sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO) includes global ocean surface heat flux data derived from satellite data and are used in many studies related to air-sea interaction. Recently latent heat flux data version 2 was constructed in J-OFURO. In version 2 many points are improved compared with version 1. A bulk algorithm used for estimation of latent heat flux is changed from Kondo (1975) to COASRE 3.0(Fairall et al., 2005). In version 1 we used NCEP reanalysis data (Reynolds and Smith, 1994) as SST data. However, the temporal resolution of the data is weekly and considerably low. Recently there are many kinds of global SST data because we can obtain SST data using a microwave radiometer sensor such as TRMM/MI and Aqua/AMSR-E. Therefore, we compared many SST products and determined to use Merged satellite and in situ data Global Daily (MGD) SST provided by Japan Meteorological Agency. Since we use wind speed and specific humidity data derived from one DMSP/SSMI sensor in J-OFURO, we obtain two data at most one day. Therefore, there may be large sampling errors for the daily-mean value. In order to escape this problem, multi-satellite data are used in version 2. As a result we could improve temporal resolution from 3-days mean value in version 1 to daily-mean value in version 2. Also we used an Optimum Interpolation method to estimate wind speed and specific humidity data instead of a simple mean method. Finally the data period is extended to 1989-2004. In this presentation we will introduce latent heat flux data version 2 in J-OFURO and comparison results with other surface latent heat flux data such as GSSTF2 and HOAPS etc. Moreover, we will present validation results by using buoy data.

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Incidence and Related Factors of the Metabolic Syndrome in a Korean Medicine Hospital (한방병원 건강검진 수진자의 대사증후군 발생과 관련요인 연구)

  • Choi, Seong-Hwan;Ahn, Jung-Jo;Jo, Hyun-Kyung;Yoo, Ho-Ryong;Seol, In-Chan;Kim, Yoon-Sik
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.563-572
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate incidence and related factors of the metabolic syndrome in a Korean medicine hospital. The 716 subjects were analyzed using biochemical data and survey who took medical examination in Daejeon Korean Medicine Hospital for general health check-up. This investigation was conducted from February in 2008 to July in 2010. The metabolic syndrome was diagnosed according to the definition by the NCEP ATP III. The abdominal obesity guidelines for waist circumference applied by the WHO Western Pacific Region, IASO and IOTF: The Asia-Pacific Perspective in 2000. Incidence of metabolic syndrome was 12% (14.6% in men, 8.2% in women). The groups that have two metabolic risk factors were 21.9% in men and 7.5% in women. The incidence increased with ageing. The mean of metabolic syndrome`s triglyceride was in hypertriglyceridemia, and that of their BMI in men was in primary obese and that of their AST, ALT, ${\gamma}$-GTP means were in abnormal liver function. Smokers in men have metabolic syndrome 10 times more than non-smokers in men. Exercisers that do the exercise once or twice a week in women have metabolic syndrome 0.2 times more than non-exerciser in women. Women that have family history of stroke, were associated with metabolic syndrome by $x^2$-test. Men that have family history of hypertension, have metabolic syndrome 4 times more than otherwise men. Men that have family history of diabetes mellitus, have metabolic syndrome 3 times more than otherwise men.