• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.73-82
• /
• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2005.05a
• /
• pp.21-23
• /
• 2005

NARX(Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input) neural network was used for prediction of nuclear reactor behavior which was influenced by control rods in short-term period and also by xenon and boron in long-term period in load following operations. The developed model was designed to predict reactor power, xenon worth and axial offset with different burnup rates when control rod and boron were adjusted in load following operations. Data of UCN 3 were collected by ONED94 code. The test results presented exhibit the capability of the NARX neural network model to capture the long term and short term dynamics of the reactor core and seems to be utilized as a handy tool for the use of a plant simulation.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.66 no.7
• /
• pp.1001-1006
• /
• 2017

In this study the NARX was proposed as a novel approach to forecast electric load more accurately. The NARX model is a recurrent dynamic network. ISO-NewEngland dataset was employed to evaluate and validate the proposed approach. Obtained results were compared with NAR network and some other popular statistical methods. This study showed that the proposed approach can be applied to forecast electric load and NARX has high potential to be utilized in modeling dynamic systems effectively.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
• /
• 2012.05a
• /
• pp.268-272
• /
• 2012

A propulsion controller for vehicles should be designed to overcome a sensor failure during a flight, and it is necessary to control the system properly at any circumstances. Therefore, the vehicles need to retain reliability on the sensor measurements by implementing extra sensors to replace the original control sensors in case of their failure. This paper presents the MIMO NARX model by simulation which substitutes measured values with estimated ones by the state estimation technique in case of a sensor failure in a turbojet engine. It is also presented that the NARX model can be adapted as an engine model in HILS equipments.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
• /
• 2011.11a
• /
• pp.599-602
• /
• 2011

A propulsion controller for one-time flight vehicles should be designed robustly so that it can complete its missions even in case sensor failures. These vehicles improve their fault tolerance by back-up sensors prepared for the failure of major sensors, which raises the total cost. This paper presents the NARX model which substitutes vehicles' velocity sensors, and detects failure of sensor signals by using model based fault detection. The designed NARX model and fault detection algorithm were optimized and installed in TI's TMS320F2812 so that they were linked to HILS instruments in real-time. The designed propulsion controller made the vehicle to have better fault tolerance with fewer sensors and to complete its missions under a lot of complicated failure situations. The controller's applicability was finally confirmed by tests under the HILS environment.

• Animal Bioscience
• /
• v.34 no.4
• /
• pp.770-782
• /
• 2021

Objective: The aim of the present study was to compare the effectiveness of three approaches (the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average [SARIMA] model, the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous [NARX] artificial neural networks and Wood's model) to the prediction of milk yield during lactation. Methods: The dataset comprised monthly test-day records from 965 Polish Holstein-Friesian Black-and-White primiparous cows. The milk yields from cows in their first lactation (from 5 to 305 days in milk) were used. Each lactation was divided into ten lactation stages of approximately 30 days. Two age groups and four calving seasons were distinguished. The records collected between 2009 and 2015 were used for model fitting and those from 2016 for the verification of predictive performance. Results: No significant differences between the predicted and the real values were found. The predictions generated by SARIMA were slightly more accurate, although they did not differ significantly from those produced by the NARX and Wood's models. SARIMA had a slightly better performance, especially in the initial periods, whereas the NARX and Wood's models in the later ones. Conclusion: The use of SARIMA was more time-consuming than that of NARX and Wood's model. The application of the SARIMA, NARX and Wood's models (after their implementation in a user-friendly software) may allow farmers to estimate milk yield of cows that begin production for the first time.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.1103-1120
• /
• 2015

A self-sensing magnetorheological (MR) damper with embedded piezoelectric force sensor has recently been devised to facilitate real-time close-looped control of structural vibration in a simple and reliable manner. The development and characterization of the self-sensing MR damper are presented based on experimental work, which demonstrates its reliable force sensing and controllable damping capabilities. With the use of experimental data acquired under harmonic loading, a nonparametric dynamic model is formulated to portray the nonlinear behaviors of the self-sensing MR damper based on NARX modeling and neural network techniques. The Bayesian regularization is adopted in the network training procedure to eschew overfitting problem and enhance generalization. Verification results indicate that the developed NARX network model accurately describes the forward dynamics of the self-sensing MR damper and has superior prediction performance and generalization capability over a Bouc-Wen parametric model.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
• /
• v.54 no.9
• /
• pp.567-569
• /
• 2005

NARX(Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input) neural network was used for prediction of nuclear reactor behavior which was influenced by control rods in short-term period and also by the concentration of xenon and boron in long-term period in load following operations. The developed model was designed to predict reactor power, xenon worth and axial offset with different burnup states when control rods and boron were adjusted in load following operations. Data of the Korea Next Generation PWR were collected by ONED94 code. The test results presented exhibit the capability of the NARX neural network model to capture the long term and short term dynamics of the reactor core and the developed model seems to be utilized as a handy tool for the use of a plant simulation.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.40 no.3
• /
• pp.303-314
• /
• 2020

The hydrological characteristics of watersheds and hydraulic systems of urban and river floods are highly nonlinear and contain uncertain variables. Therefore, the predicted time series of rainfall-runoff data in flood analysis is not suitable for existing neural networks. To overcome the challenge of prediction, a NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), which is a kind of recurrent dynamic neural network that maximizes the learning ability of a neural network, was applied to forecast a flood in real-time. At the same time, NARX has the characteristics of a time-delay neural network. In this study, a hydrological model was constructed for the Taehwa river basin, and the NARX time-delay parameter was adjusted 10 to 120 minutes. As a result, we found that precise prediction is possible as the time-delay parameter was increased by confirming that the NSE increased from 0.530 to 0.988 and the RMSE decreased from 379.9 ㎥/s to 16.1 ㎥/s. The machine learning technique with NARX will contribute to the accurate prediction of flow rate with an unexpected extreme flood condition.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
• /
• v.39 no.5
• /
• pp.289-295
• /
• 2021

Recently, owing to the development of autonomous vehicles, research on precisely determining the position of a moving object has been actively conducted. Previous research mainly used the fusion of GNSS/IMU (Global Positioning System / Inertial Navigation System) and sensors attached to the vehicle through a Kalman filter. However, in recent years, new technologies have been used to determine the location of a moving object owing to the improvement in computing power and the advent of deep learning. Various techniques using RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), and NARX (Nonlinear Auto-Regressive eXogenous model) exist for such learning-based positioning methods. The purpose of this study is to compare the precision of existing filter-based sensor fusion technology and the NARX-based method in case of GNSS signal blockages using simulation data. When the filter-based sensor integration technology was used, an average horizontal position error of 112.8 m occurred during 60 seconds of GNSS signal outages. The same experiment was performed 100 times using the NARX. Among them, an improvement in precision was confirmed in approximately 20% of the experimental results. The horizontal position accuracy was 22.65 m, which was confirmed to be better than that of the filter-based fusion technique.