• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.771-781
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to identify major drivers of Myanmar's long-term economic growth and draw implications to implement development policies. This study investigated Myanmar, as the country is the most recently opened economy in Southeast Asia. This study conducted simulation analysis based on scenarios by applying World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model, Penn World Table 9.1, and World Development Indicator data. This study makes extensive use of LTGM and the LTGM-TFP extension to improve the validity of models for data calibration. This study confirms the validity of the model with data calibration and specifies scenarios for simulation analyses by setting the growth trajectory of Vietnam due to common geographical, political, and economic conditions. Main findings include that Myanmar's economic growth rate will continue to fall below 3% in 2040 without proper improvement of growth drivers. The results of this study also provide that total factor productivity growth and female labor participation are key factors for Myanmar's long-term economic growth. This study advises policymakers in Myanmar to strengthen human capital, which is crucial for total factor productivity growth in Myanmar's context and directly affects economic growth. Further, labor market policies to promote female labor participation is important to sustain economic growth.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.146-170
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper addresses the concepts of FDI-Trade-Growth nexus in Myanmar's economy and empirically investigates the interrelationships of trade, investment and economic growth to reveal the growth model of Myanmar's economy. Additionally, this paper also addresses the cooperative strategies between Myanmar and South Korea through a case study related to South Korea's economic growth. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers the interrelationship among FDI, trade, growth, labor force and inflation in Myanmar. This study employs ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) to conduct an analysis of the FDI-Trade-Growth relationships using the time series data from 1970 to 2016 and a conducted case study of South Korea provided for practical implication on cooperative strategies between Myanmar and Korea. Findings - Export equation was chosen through the diagnostic tests. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Export in Myanmar is positively influenced by labor force, FDI, capital formation and negatively impacted by import and instable inflation rate in the long run. In the short run, GDP and import positively influence export. The Granger causality test proves that Myanmar is an FDI/labor force-led Growth economy, where FDI and labor force are main drivers of export followed by GDP in Myanmar. The case study of South Korea provided that Korea's tax and credit system for promoting export-led FDI industries and cooperative units for joint ventures between Korea and Myanmar in export-led FDI industries are recommended. Originality/value - No study has yet to be conducted on the interrelationships of macroeconomic factors from the perspectives of FDI-Trade-Growth Nexus in Myanmar under the assumption of labor force and inflation rate as fundamental conditions. The current study also covered a relatively longer period of time series data from 1970 to 2016. This paper also conducts a case study of South Korea's experience in order to evaluate the findings and provide better policy implications.

• Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.40-55
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• 2016

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has the potential to provide economic opportunities and help raise the social and political status of countries. For developing countries, ICT can be used as a tool for economic growth and social advancement in a short period of time. The benefits of ICT, however, are not only economic in nature. It can help improve professional skills, teaching quality, job creation, agricultural production, community involvement, and information use, personal relationships, and time use. These benefits are examples of how ICT has become an indispensable part of our lives. Myanmar is a developing country and is ranked low in the ICT Development Index. In terms of ICT development, Myanmar today is facing many issues such as a lack of telecommunication infrastructure, ICT awareness, electricity, and budget for ICT development. Among the economic reforms implemented by the recent government, the telecommunications sector has been opened up as a measure of economic reform. As a result of this reform, the telecommunications sector has been growing rapidly. Myanmar, however, remains behind other Asian countries. This paper discusses Myanmar's ICT infrastructure status, progress that has been made in the country's telecommunications over the last fifteen years, and the challenges that lie ahead.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제64권
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• pp.213-237
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• 2014

The medical-device market of Myanmar in the recent Asian region is where the influences of Thailand, China, India and Singapore are being shown considerably with the lift-up of economic sanctions by America and the West. However, although the global capital and liberalization have widened the openness and the international concerns, the relative Myanmar's medical environment demands an active assistance and improvement. The study, recognizing the importance of Medical-Devices and their market conditions emerging as key business for knowledge-based industry, aims to obtain consequential meaningful suggestions, pursuant to relative export-concentration and sustainable market growth of Medical Devices, by analyzing inter-nation trade intensity for key Medical Device items. To do so, this study selected 8 nations in total by reviewing three points: core Medicine-advanced countries, geographically adjacent countries to Myanmar, and relative export-concentration.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.177-201
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• 2011

미얀마는 2011년에 들어 역사상 두 번째 총선거로 신정부가 출범하게 되었으며 경제 특구법 발표, 2009년 한 해에만 190억 달러에 달한 외국인 투자 유입, 사회기반 인프라 구축 프로젝트, 50년 만에 노동조합과 노동자들의 파업권 허용 등 미얀마 정치경제에 큰 변화가 일어나고 있다. 한국의 대 미얀마의 투자 및 교역도 과거와 달리 최근 들어 많이 활발해지고 있지만 아직은 다양하고 많은 분야에서 투자가 이루어지지 않고 있다. 이런 맥락에서 본 연구는 최신 미얀마 통계자료 및 국내외 연구 중심의 조사 방법을 통하여 미얀마의 경제 거시적 변화에 따른 한국의 투자 및 진출에 관한 시사점을 고찰하고자 한다. 연구한 결과는 최근 미얀마는 초기 발전 단계에 있으며 많은 사회 기반 시설에 관련 프로젝트로 철도, 도로, 통신, 건설업 등에 대한 수요가 많아지지만 비교적 투자 규모가 크다. 한편으로 섬유, 봉제 분야는 비교적 투자 규모도 적고 수출촉진, 제3국 수출 확대, 저 임금 노동력 등을 활용할 수 있을 것이다. 다만 수출촉진이나 저임금 노동력 활용을 위해서 미얀마 시장 진출한 기업은 향후 미얀마 내수시장 확보 어려움을 겪을 수도 있다는 점을 유의해야한다. 경기 성장 초기 과정에서 발생하는 수요로 교역이 많아짐으로 무역 분야에 대한 진출도 가능하지만 미얀마는 아직 교통 및 유통 시장에 관한 인프라 부족으로 선정된 품목이나 상품에 대한 유통 비용에 대한 사전 조사가 필요할 것이다. 진출 전략에 대해서 미얀마 수출 지향적 산업, 수입대체산업, 노동집약산업 등에 무게를 두고 있으며 의미는 단순 노동을 가공하여 대량 생산과 수출이 가능한 품목이나 제품에 대한 우선순위를 두고 있다는 것이다. 진출 기업의 목적에 따라 다르다는데 단순한 노동집약적 산업 투자할 경우 합작 투자가 유리한 반면에 기업의 기술력을 바탕으로 진출 할 경우 단독 투자가 적당하다고 본다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.89-102
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• 2022

This study is designed to investigate the effect of inflow FDI on the host country's economic growth and the role of absorptive capacity in this relationship. Eight developing countries in East Asia, including Mongolia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, are analyzed. Year data from 2000 to 2018 are used. Based on the study of Hansen (1999), the panel threshold effect model is used, and human capital, R&D, and infrastructure are set as absorptive capacity by referring to Wang and Hwang (2013). The analysis results are as follows. It is confirmed that FDI has a positive effect on the economic growth of the host country, and absorption capacity strengthens the relationship between FDI and economic growth in a positive direction. At this time, it appears that a threshold exists for the moderating effect of the absorptive capacity. It presents useful implications for economic growth in developing countries.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.3-11
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• 2021

미얀마는 아시아 국가 중 개발 가치가 높은 미개발 국가이다. 이에 미국을 비롯한 다양한 국가에서 시장 진출을 고려하고 있는 상황이다. 이러한 측면에서 부동산 개발 프로젝트의 수요는 외국인들의 유입 증가와 미얀마 경제성장에 따라 증가할 것으로 예측된다. 하지만 미얀마는 국가적 리스크를 포함해 해외 진출기업의 측면에서 위험도가 높은 국가이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 미얀마에 관한 자료분석을 실시해 리스크 유발요인을 추출한 후 전문가(법률, 금융, 기술, 현지 전문가) 심층인터뷰를 실시하였다. 이를 통해 106가지 리스크 요인을 추출하였으며, 친화도법을 활용해 3차에 걸친 그룹핑 작업을 실시하여 최종 리스크 분류 체계를 구축하였다. 그리고 AHP 기법을 활용해 각 요인별 상대적 중요도를 분석하여 제시하였다. 그 결과 해당 국가 관련 리스크, 자금 관련 리스크, 분양 관련 리스크의 중요도가 높게 나타났다. 본 연구결과는 미얀마 부동산 개발형사업의 진출기업에게 리스크관리 기준을 제공할 것으로 기대된다.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.19-40
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• 2013

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) achieved relatively rapid economic growth over the past decade. Sustainable growth among member states, however, is put into question due to macroeconomic challenges, political risk, and vulnerability to external shocks. Developed countries, in contrast, have turned into less labor-intensive technologies to further expand their economies. In this paper, we review the science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies and statuses of the scientific and technological capabilities of the ASEAN member countries. Empirical results based on STI indicators (R&D spending, publications, patents, and knowledge economy indices) reveal considerable variation between the science and technology (S&T) competence and effectiveness of STI policies of ASEAN members. We have categorized nations into clusters according their situations in their S&T productivity. Under the Korean Innovation Model, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei are classified as being in the institutional-building stage, while Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam in the catch up stage, and Singapore in the post-catch up stage. Finally, policy prescriptions on how to enhance the S&T capabilities of the developing ASEAN countries, based on the South Korea development experience, are presented.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
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• pp.37-37
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• 2012

The study aims to evaluate the complexity of relationships between the riparian states - China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia - in the Mekong River Basin since the mid-1990s with special reference to the discourse on hydropower development. A special emphasis will be put on the influence of China on hydropower development. Although a variety of issues on the river basin have been discussed among the riparian states, none of them has been effectively implemented owing to the lack of China's commitment to the discussions for sustainable water management. Now, a new turning point is observed in the region with emergence of the issue on hydropower development, not only in the upper basin but also in the lower basin. The discourse on hydropower in Mekong has quickly drawn attention of the public, accelerated by the onset of construction of the Xayabury Dam in Laos since November 2010. The influence of China as the upstream country with its political, economic, and military power has increasingly grown in the region over the last few decades, and such trend recently intensifies together with an expansion of Chinese commercial interests in the region. Since the establishment of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) in 1995, the four MRC members have striven to push forward a sustainable use of water resources in the basin. But the legitimacy of the MRC system has been eroded due to the lack of participation by Myanmar and China, and in particular, the Chinese absence has made the four riparian states blind about the change of water regime due to the Chinese dams upstream. Environmental damages due to hydropower development might be possible, including a drop of fish yields, crop production, and damages to the river's ecosystems. Vietnam and Cambodia have already expressed their concerns over the dam construction towards China as well as Laos by pointing out detrimental impacts of the dams to their economies. China's move to collaborate with the other riparian states since 2010 has given a positive signal in terms of sustainable water management in the river. However, this phenomenon never confirms China's proactive contribution to the cooperative activities within the framework of the MRC system. Laos' initiative to build a new dam in the lower basin alarms those who are opposed to dam construction in the fear of its far-reaching damages to the environment. The question goes back to the year-long debate on policy priorities given to economic growth or the environment. The riparian states require wisdom based on a consensus about sustainable water use rather than hydropower development based on individual growth dreams.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.41-63
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• 2017

외국인 직접투자는 국내투자와 함께 생산과정에 흡수되어 생산유발효과를 창출할 수도 있고, 아니면 외부요인으로 존재하면서 GDP의 변동성을 키우는 경우도 있다. 이러한 외국인 투자의 상이한 역할에 대하여 연구하는 것이 본 논문의 목적이다. 경제이론으로는 내생적 성장론을 사용하였고, 통계분석방법으로는 GARCH와 VAR모형을 이용하였다. 실증연구 대상으로는 미얀마를 선택하였는데, 미얀마는 장기간 군사정부 상태로 있었고 2011년 4월 민선정부가 출범하였다. 군사독재정부시절에는 외국인 직접투자는 주로 석유 가스와 전력산업에 투입되었고, 2011년 문민정부로 전환됨과 동시에 서방의 경제제재가 완화되면서 외국인 직접투자가 동남아에서 가장 활발한 국가이다. 한국도 이에 동참하고 있어 미얀마 국가의 경제발전과 한국과 미얀마의 경제적 상호관계의 발전을 위하여 본 연구가 필요하다. 산업별 패널분석의 결과에 의하면, 미얀마에서 외국인 투자가 주로 이루어진 산업은 석유 가스 부분인데, 산업유발효과보다는 수입을 위한 달러조달의 의미가 크다. 생산유발효과가 높은 제조업에는 외국인 직접투자는 낮은 수준이고 생산량 변화와의 관계를 찾을 수가 없었다. 시계열 분석은 결과는 민선정부 출범이전 기간(2006.01~2011.12)에서는 GARCH의 존재가 확인되지만 외국인 직접투자가 미얀마 국내총생산에 영향을 주지 않는 것으로 판단되었다. 민선정부 출범이후 기간(2011.04~2015.12)에서는 외국인 직접투자가 미얀마 국내총생산에 영향을 주는 것으로 판단되었고, GARCH의 존재가 확인되었다. 그러나 외국인 직접투자가 국내총생산에 기여하는 정도는 상당히 낮은 것으로 판단되었다. 그랜저 인과관계 검증을 통하여 GARCH에 외국인 직접투자가 영향을 주는 것으로 추정되었는데, 이는 외국인 직접투자가 국내총생산의 변동성을 키운 것을 의미한다. VAR에 의하여도 외국인 직접투자가 국내 총생산에 영향을 주지만 그 영향은 적고 기간도 길지 않았다. 본 연구에 의하여 외국인 직접투자는 국내총생산에 내부화되는 부분과 잔차항의 변화를 증대시키는 부분으로 구분될 수 있다는 사고가 검증되었고, 미얀마의 경우는 후자가 더 큰 것으로 나타났다.