• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multiple-indicator Model

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Data-driven Model Prediction of Harmful Cyanobacterial Blooms in the Nakdong River in Response to Increased Temperatures Under Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오의 기온상승에 따른 낙동강 남세균 발생 예측을 위한 데이터 기반 모델 시뮬레이션)

  • Gayeon Jang;Minkyoung Jo;Jayun Kim;Sangjun Kim;Himchan Park;Joonhong Park
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2024
  • Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (HCBs) are caused by the rapid proliferation of cyanobacteria and are believed to be exacerbated by climate change. However, the extent to which HCBs will be stimulated in the future due to increased temperature remains uncertain. This study aims to predict the future occurrence of cyanobacteria in the Nakdong River, which has the highest incidence of HCBs in South Korea, based on temperature rise scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used as the basis for these scenarios. Data-driven model simulations were conducted, and out of the four machine learning techniques tested (multiple linear regression, support vector regressor, decision tree, and random forest), the random forest model was selected for its relatively high prediction accuracy. The random forest model was used to predict the occurrence of cyanobacteria. The results of boxplot and time-series analyses showed that under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)), where temperature increases significantly, cyanobacterial abundance across all study areas was greatly stimulated. The study also found that the frequencies of HCB occurrences exceeding certain thresholds (100,000 and 1,000,000 cells/mL) increased under both the best-case scenario (RCP2.6 (2050)) and worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)). These findings suggest that the frequency of HCB occurrences surpassing a certain threshold level can serve as a useful diagnostic indicator of vulnerability to temperature increases caused by climate change. Additionally, this study highlights that water bodies currently susceptible to HCBs are likely to become even more vulnerable with climate change compared to those that are currently less susceptible.

Estimation of Cerchar abrasivity index based on rock strength and petrological characteristics using linear regression and machine learning (선형회귀분석과 머신러닝을 이용한 암석의 강도 및 암석학적 특징 기반 세르샤 마모지수 추정)

  • Ju-Pyo Hong;Yun Seong Kang;Tae Young Ko
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.39-58
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    • 2024
  • Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM) use multiple disc cutters to excavate tunnels through rock. These cutters wear out due to continuous contact and friction with the rock, leading to decreased cutting efficiency and reduced excavation performance. The rock's abrasivity significantly affects cutter wear, with highly abrasive rocks causing more wear and reducing the cutter's lifespan. The Cerchar Abrasivity Index (CAI) is a key indicator for assessing rock abrasivity, essential for predicting disc cutter life and performance. This study aims to develop a new method for effectively estimating CAI using rock strength, petrological characteristics, linear regression, and machine learning. A database including CAI, uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, and equivalent quartz content was created, with additional derived variables. Variables for multiple linear regression were selected considering statistical significance and multicollinearity, while machine learning model inputs were chosen based on variable importance. Among the machine learning prediction models, the Gradient Boosting model showed the highest predictive performance. Finally, the predictive performance of the multiple linear regression analysis and the Gradient Boosting model derived in this study were compared with the CAI prediction models of previous studies to validate the results of this research.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Somatic Cell Scores of Holsteins Using Multi-trait Lactation Models in Korea

  • Alam, M.;Cho, C.I.;Choi, T.J.;Park, B.;Choi, J.G.;Choy, Y.H.;Lee, S.S.;Cho, K.H.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.303-310
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    • 2015
  • The study was conducted to analyze the genetic parameters of somatic cell score (SCS) of Holstein cows, which is an important indicator to udder health. Test-day records of somatic cell counts (SCC) of 305-day lactation design from first to fifth lactations were collected on Holsteins in Korea during 2000 to 2012. Records of animals within 18 to 42 months, 30 to 54 months, 42 to 66 months, 54 to 78 months, and 66 to 90 months of age at the first, second, third, fourth and fifth parities were analyzed, respectively. Somatic cell scores were calculated, and adjusted for lactation production stages by Wilmink's function. Lactation averages of SCS ($LSCS_1$ through $LSCS_5$) were derived by further adjustments of each test-day SCS for five age groups in particular lactations. Two datasets were prepared through restrictions on number of sires/herd and dams/herd, progenies/sire, and number of parities/cow to reduce data size and attain better relationships among animals. All LSCS traits were treated as individual trait and, analyzed through multiple-trait sire models and single trait animal models via VCE 6.0 software package. Herd-year was fitted as a random effect. Age at calving was regressed as a fixed covariate. The mean LSCS of five lactations were between 3.507 and 4.322 that corresponded to a SCC range between 71,000 and 125,000 cells/mL; with coefficient of variation from 28.2% to 29.9%. Heritability estimates from sire models were within the range of 0.10 to 0.16 for all LSCS. Heritability was the highest at lactation 2 from both datasets (0.14/0.16) and lowest at lactation 5 (0.11/0.10) using sire model. Heritabilities from single trait animal model analyses were slightly higher than sire models. Genetic correlations between LSCS traits were strong (0.62 to 0.99). Very strong associations (0.96 to 0.99) were present between successive records of later lactations. Phenotypic correlations were relatively weaker (<0.55). All correlations became weaker at distant lactations. The estimated breeding values (EBVs) of LSCS traits were somewhat similar over the years for a particular lactation, but increased with lactation number increment. The lowest EBV in first lactation indicated that selection for SCS (mastitis resistance) might be better with later lactation records. It is expected that results obtained from these multi-trait lactation model analyses, being the first large scale SCS data analysis in Korea, would create a good starting step for application of advanced statistical tools for future genomic studies focusing on selection for mastitis resistance in Holsteins of Korea.

Estimation of Body Weight Using Body Volume Determined from Three-Dimensional Images for Korean Cattle (한우의 3차원 영상에서 결정된 몸통 체적을 이용한 체중 추정)

  • Jang, Dong Hwa;Kim, Chulsoo;Kim, Yong Hyeon
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.393-400
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    • 2021
  • Body weight of livestock is a crucial indicator for assessing feed requirements and nutritional status. This study was performed to estimate the body weight of Korean cattle (Hanwoo) using body volume determined from three-dimensional (3-D) image. A TOF camera with a resolution of 640×480 pixels, a frame rate of 44 fps and a field of view of 47°(H)×37°(V) was used to capture the 3-D images for Hanwoo. A grid image of the body was obtained through preprocessing such as separating the body from background and removing outliers from the obtained 3-D image. The body volume was determined by numerical integration using depth information to individual grid. The coefficient of determination for a linear regression model of body weight and body volume for calibration dataset was 0.8725. On the other hand, the coefficient of determination was 0.9083 in a multiple regression model for estimating body weight, in which the age of Hanwoo was added to the body volume as an explanatory variable. Mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error in the multiple regression model to estimate the body weight for validation dataset were 8.2% and 24.5kg, respectively. The performance of the regression model for weight estimation was improved and the effort required for estimating body weight could be reduced as the body volume of Hanwoo was used. From these results obtained, it was concluded that the body volume determined from 3-D of Hanwoo could be used as an effective variable for estimating body weight.

Bridge load testing and rating: a case study through wireless sensing technology

  • Shoukry, Samir N.;Luo, Yan;Riad, Mourad Y.;William, Gergis W.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.661-678
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, a wireless sensing system for structural field evaluation and rating of bridges is presented. The system uses a wireless platform integrated with traditional analogue sensors including strain gages and accelerometers along with the operating software. A wireless vehicle position indicator is developed using a tri-axial accelerometer node that is mounted on the test vehicle, and was used for identifying the moving truck position during load testing. The developed software is capable of calculating the theoretical bridge rating factors based on AASHTO Load and Resistance Factor Rating specifications, and automatically produces the field adjustment factor through load testing data. The sensing system along with its application in bridge deck rating was successfully demonstrated on the Evansville Bridge in West Virginia. A finite element model was conducted for the test bridge, and was used to calculate the load distribution factors of the bridge deck after verifying its results using field data. A confirmation field test was conducted on the same bridge and its results varied by only 3% from the first test. The proposed wireless sensing system proved to be a reliable tool that overcomes multiple drawbacks of conventional wired sensing platforms designed for structural load evaluation of bridges.

Gender Based Health Inequality and Impacting Factors (성별에 따른 건강불평등 및 관련요인 연구)

  • Song, Mi Young;Lim, Woo Youn;Kim, Jeung-Im
    • Women's Health Nursing
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.150-159
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: This study was aimed to identify gender-based health inequality and explore impacting factors on health inequality in one province in Korea. Methods: This was an explanatory study using the secondary data on Chungnam province from the Fifth Community Health Survey from August 16 to Oct 31, 2012. Variables included in this analysis were education level, poverty, marital status, and residential community for socio-cultural characteristics and subjective health status as an indicator of health inequality. Data were analyzed by ${\chi}^2$-test, t-test, ANOVA, and multiple linear regression. Results: There were gender inequalities and disparities in health, and these inequalities were greater in woman than in man (${\chi}^2$=161.8, p<.001). The impacting factors were education level, poverty, marital status, and residential community, which was accounted for 22.6% of variances of health inequality. Among these variables, gender showed the largest influence in health inequalities. Conclusion: To solve health inequalities, it should be considered gender differences based on social determinants of health. It is necessary to develop long term project based on these results and the social determinants model of World Health Organization.

Analysis of Various Ecological Parameters from Molecular to Community Levels for Ecological Health Assessments (생태 건강성 평가로서 분자지표에서 군집지표 수준까지의 다양한 변수분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Hoon;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to analyze some influences on ecological health conditions, threaten by various stressors such as physical, chemical and biological parameters. We collected samples in 2008 from three zones of upstream, midstream and downstream, Gap Stream. We applied multi-metric fish assessment index (MFAI), based on biotic integrity model to the three zones along with habitat evaluations based on Qualitative Habitat Evaluation Index (QHEI). We also examined fish fauna and compositions, and analyzed relations with MFAI values, QHEI values, and various guild types. Chemical parameters such as oragnic matter (BOD, COD), nutrients (TP, $NH_3$-N), coli-form number (as MPN), and suspended solids (SS) were analyzed to identify the relationship among multiple stressor effects. Using the sentinel species of Zacco platypus, the population structures and condition factors were analyzed along with DNA damages related with genotoxicant effects by comet assay. This study using all these parameters showed that stream condition was degraded along the longitudinal gradient from upstream to downstream, and the downstream, especially, was impacted by nutrient enrichment and toxicant exposure from the point source, wastewater treatment plant. Overall results indicated that our approaches applying various parameters may be used as a cause-effect technique in the stream health assessments and also used as a pre-warning tool for diagnosis of ecological degradation.

The determinants of the Profitability of University Hospitals in Korea (대학병원 수익성에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Yang, Jong-Hyun;Chang, Dong-Min;Suh, Chang-Jin
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.43-62
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    • 2010
  • This study provides an evidence on the determinants of the profitability of university hospital by analyzing university hospital-level data set of hospital performance during the year 2007 (32 university hospitals in total). For the study, a multiple regression model is employed in which profitability index obtained from the DEA computations, operating margin to total asset and gross revenue are used as the dependent variables, and a number of hospital operating characteristics are chosen as the independent variables such as ownership type, location, bed size, period of establishment, bed occupancy rate, admission ratio of outpatients, patients per medical specialist, personnel cost per patient, liabilities to total assets, current ratio, fixed ratio, total asset turnover, medical assistance rate and public indicator. First, the results indicate that the bed occupancy rate and liabilities to total assets are positively and significantly associated with operating margin to total asset. Second, number of beds, the bed occupancy rate and number of patients per medical specialist are positively and significantly associated with operating margin to gross revenue. Third, the bed occupancy rate, number of patients per medical specialist, liabilities to total assets, total asset turnover are positively and significantly associated with profitability index revealed from DEA.

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Approximate Life Cycle Assessment of Classified Products using Artificial Neural Network and Statistical Analysis in Conceptual Product Design (개념 설계 단계에서 인공 신경망과 통계적 분석을 이용한 제품군의 근사적 전과정 평가)

  • 박지형;서광규
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.221-229
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    • 2003
  • In the early phases of the product life cycle, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is recently used to support the decision-making fer the conceptual product design and the best alternative can be selected based on its estimated LCA and its benefits. Both the lack of detailed information and time for a full LCA fur a various range of design concepts need the new approach fer the environmental analysis. This paper suggests a novel approximate LCA methodology for the conceptual design stage by grouping products according to their environmental characteristics and by mapping product attributes into impact driver index. The relationship is statistically verified by exploring the correlation between total impact indicator and energy impact category. Then a neural network approach is developed to predict an approximate LCA of grouping products in conceptual design. Trained learning algorithms for the known characteristics of existing products will quickly give the result of LCA for new design products. The training is generalized by using product attributes for an ID in a group as well as another product attributes for another IDs in other groups. The neural network model with back propagation algorithm is used and the results are compared with those of multiple regression analysis. The proposed approach does not replace the full LCA but it would give some useful guidelines fer the design of environmentally conscious products in conceptual design phase.

Vascular Morphometric Changes During Tumor Growth and Chemotherapy in a Murine Mammary Tumor Model Using OCT Angiography: a Preliminary Study

  • Kim, Hoonsup;Eom, Tae Joong;Kim, Jae Gwan
    • Current Optics and Photonics
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.54-65
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    • 2019
  • To develop a biomarker predicting tumor treatment efficacy is helpful to reduce time, medical expenditure, and efforts in oncology therapy. In clinics, microvessel density using immunohistochemistry has been proposed as an indicator that correlates with both tumor size and metastasis of cancer. In the preclinical study, we hypothesized that vascular morphometrics using optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) could be potential indicators to estimate the treatment efficacy of breast cancer. To verify this hypothesis, a 13762-MAT-B-III rat breast tumor was grown in a dorsal skinfold window chamber which was applied to a nude mouse, and the change in vascular morphology was longitudinally monitored during tumor growth and metronomic cyclophosphamide treatment. Based on the daily OCTA maximum intensity projection map, multiple vessel parameters (vessel skeleton density, vessel diameter index, fractal dimension, and lacunarity) were compared with the tumor size in no tumor, treated tumor, and untreated tumor cases. Although each case has only one animal, we found that the vessel skeleton density (VSD), vessel diameter index and fractal dimension (FD) tended to be positively correlated with tumor size while lacunarity showed a partially negative correlation. Moreover, we observed that the changes in the VSD and FD are prior to the morphological change of the tumor. This feasibility study would be helpful in evaluating the tumor vascular response to treatment in preclinical settings.