• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multiple Probability

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Development of the Risk Evaluation Model for Rear End Collision on the Basis of Microscopic Driving Behaviors (미시적 주행행태를 반영한 후미추돌위험 평가모형 개발)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong;Song, Ki-Han;Park, Chang-Ho;Chon, Kyung-Soo;Kho, Seung-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2004
  • A model and a measure which can evaluate the risk of rear end collision are developed. Most traffic accidents involve multiple causes such as the human factor, the vehicle factor, and the highway element at any given time. Thus, these factors should be considered in analyzing the risk of an accident and in developing safety models. Although most risky situations and accidents on the roads result from the poor response of a driver to various stimuli, many researchers have modeled the risk or accident by analyzing only the stimuli without considering the response of a driver. Hence, the reliabilities of those models turned out to be low. Thus in developing the model behaviors of a driver, such as reaction time and deceleration rate, are considered. In the past, most studies tried to analyze the relationships between a risk and an accident directly but they, due to the difficulty of finding out the directional relationships between these factors, developed a model by considering these factors, developed a model by considering indirect factors such as volume, speed, etc. However, if the relationships between risk and accidents are looked into in detail, it can be seen that they are linked by the behaviors of a driver, and depending on drivers the risk as it is on the road-vehicle system may be ignored or call drivers' attention. Therefore, an accident depends on how a driver handles risk, so that the more related risk to and accident occurrence is not the risk itself but the risk responded by a driver. Thus, in this study, the behaviors of a driver are considered in the model and to reflect these behaviors three concepts related to accidents are introduced. And safe stopping distance and accident occurrence probability were used for better understanding and for more reliable modeling of the risk. The index which can represent the risk is also developed based on measures used in evaluating noise level, and for the risk comparison between various situations, the equivalent risk level, considering the intensity and duration time, is developed by means of the weighted average. Validation is performed with field surveys on the expressway of Seoul, and the test vehicle was made to collect the traffic flow data, such as deceleration rate, speed and spacing. Based on this data, the risk by section, lane and traffic flow conditions are evaluated and compared with the accident data and traffic conditions. The evaluated risk level corresponds closely to the patterns of actual traffic conditions and counts of accident. The model and the method developed in this study can be applied to various fields, such as safety test of traffic flow, establishment of operation & management strategy for reliable traffic flow, and the safety test for the control algorithm in the advanced safety vehicles and many others.

SKU recommender system for retail stores that carry identical brands using collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering (협업 필터링 및 하이브리드 필터링을 이용한 동종 브랜드 판매 매장간(間) 취급 SKU 추천 시스템)

  • Joe, Denis Yongmin;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.77-110
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the diversification and individualization of consumption patterns through the web and mobile devices based on the Internet have been rapid. As this happens, the efficient operation of the offline store, which is a traditional distribution channel, has become more important. In order to raise both the sales and profits of stores, stores need to supply and sell the most attractive products to consumers in a timely manner. However, there is a lack of research on which SKUs, out of many products, can increase sales probability and reduce inventory costs. In particular, if a company sells products through multiple in-store stores across multiple locations, it would be helpful to increase sales and profitability of stores if SKUs appealing to customers are recommended. In this study, the recommender system (recommender system such as collaborative filtering and hybrid filtering), which has been used for personalization recommendation, is suggested by SKU recommendation method of a store unit of a distribution company that handles a homogeneous brand through a plurality of sales stores by country and region. We calculated the similarity of each store by using the purchase data of each store's handling items, filtering the collaboration according to the sales history of each store by each SKU, and finally recommending the individual SKU to the store. In addition, the store is classified into four clusters through PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and cluster analysis (Clustering) using the store profile data. The recommendation system is implemented by the hybrid filtering method that applies the collaborative filtering in each cluster and measured the performance of both methods based on actual sales data. Most of the existing recommendation systems have been studied by recommending items such as movies and music to the users. In practice, industrial applications have also become popular. In the meantime, there has been little research on recommending SKUs for each store by applying these recommendation systems, which have been mainly dealt with in the field of personalization services, to the store units of distributors handling similar brands. If the recommendation method of the existing recommendation methodology was 'the individual field', this study expanded the scope of the store beyond the individual domain through a plurality of sales stores by country and region and dealt with the store unit of the distribution company handling the same brand SKU while suggesting a recommendation method. In addition, if the existing recommendation system is limited to online, it is recommended to apply the data mining technique to develop an algorithm suitable for expanding to the store area rather than expanding the utilization range offline and analyzing based on the existing individual. The significance of the results of this study is that the personalization recommendation algorithm is applied to a plurality of sales outlets handling the same brand. A meaningful result is derived and a concrete methodology that can be constructed and used as a system for actual companies is proposed. It is also meaningful that this is the first attempt to expand the research area of the academic field related to the existing recommendation system, which was focused on the personalization domain, to a sales store of a company handling the same brand. From 05 to 03 in 2014, the number of stores' sales volume of the top 100 SKUs are limited to 52 SKUs by collaborative filtering and the hybrid filtering method SKU recommended. We compared the performance of the two recommendation methods by totaling the sales results. The reason for comparing the two recommendation methods is that the recommendation method of this study is defined as the reference model in which offline collaborative filtering is applied to demonstrate higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The results of this model are compared with the Hybrid filtering method, which is a model that reflects the characteristics of the offline store view. The proposed method showed a higher performance than the existing recommendation method. The proposed method was proved by using actual sales data of large Korean apparel companies. In this study, we propose a method to extend the recommendation system of the individual level to the group level and to efficiently approach it. In addition to the theoretical framework, which is of great value.

Current Status and Perspectives in Varietal Improvement of Rice Cultivars for High-Quality and Value-Added Products (쌀 품질 고급화 및 고부가가치화를 위한 육종현황과 전망)

  • 최해춘
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.47
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    • pp.15-32
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    • 2002
  • The endeavors enhancing the grain quality of high-yielding japonica rice were steadily continued during 1980s-1990s along with the self-sufficiency of rice production and the increasing demands of high-quality rices. During this time, considerably great progress and success was obtained in development of high-quality japonica cultivars and quality evaluation techniques including the elucidation of interrelationship between the physicochemical properties of rice grain and the physical or palatability components of cooked rice. In 1990s, some high-quality japonica rice cultivars and special rices adaptable for food processing such as large kernel, chalky endosperm, aromatic and colored rices were developed and its objective preference and utility was also examined by a palatability meter, rapid-visco analyzer and texture analyzer, Recently, new special rices such as extremely low-amylose dull or opaque non-glutinous endosperm mutants were developed. Also, a high-lysine rice variety was developed for higher nutritional utility. The water uptake rate and the maximum water absorption ratio showed significantly negative correlations with the K/Mg ratio and alkali digestion value(ADV) of milled rice. The rice materials showing the higher amount of hot water absorption exhibited the larger volume expansion of cooked rice. The harder rices with lower moisture content revealed the higher rate of water uptake at twenty minutes after soaking and the higher ratio of maximum water uptake under the room temperature condition. These water uptake characteristics were not associated with the protein and amylose contents of milled rice and the palatability of cooked rice. The water/rice ratio (in w/w basis) for optimum cooking was averaged to 1.52 in dry milled rices (12% wet basis) with varietal range from 1.45 to 1.61 and the expansion ratio of milled rice after proper boiling was average to 2.63(in v/v basis). The major physicochemical components of rice grain associated with the palatability of cooked rice were examined using japonica rice materials showing narrow varietal variation in grain size and shape, alkali digestibility, gel consistency, amylose and protein contents, but considerable difference in appearance and texture of cooked rice. The glossiness or gross palatability score of cooked rice were closely associated with the peak, hot paste and consistency viscosities of viscosities with year difference. The high-quality rice variety "IIpumbyeo" showed less portion of amylose on the outer layer of milled rice grain and less and slower change in iodine blue value of extracted paste during twenty minutes of boiling. This highly palatable rice also exhibited very fine net structure in outer layer and fine-spongy and well-swollen shape of gelatinized starch granules in inner layer and core of cooked rice kernel compared with the poor palatable rice through image of scanning electronic microscope. Gross sensory score of cooked rice could be estimated by multiple linear regression formula, deduced from relationship between rice quality components mentioned above and eating quality of cooked rice, with high probability of determination. The $\alpha$-amylose-iodine method was adopted for checking the varietal difference in retrogradation of cooked rice. The rice cultivars revealing the relatively slow retrogradation in aged cooked rice were IIpumbyeo, Chucheongyeo, Sasanishiki, Jinbubyeo and Koshihikari. A Tonsil-type rice, Taebaegbyeo, and a japonica cultivar, Seomjinbyeo, showed the relatively fast deterioration of cooked rice. Generally, the better rice cultivars in eating quality of cooked rice showed less retrogradation and much sponginess in cooled cooked rice. Also, the rice varieties exhibiting less retrogradation in cooled cooked rice revealed higher hot viscosity and lower cool viscosity of rice flour in amylogram. The sponginess of cooled cooked rice was closely associated with magnesium content and volume expansion of cooked rice. The hardness-changed ratio of cooked rice by cooling was negatively correlated with solids amount extracted during boiling and volume expansion of cooked rice. The major physicochemical properties of rice grain closely related to the palatability of cooked rice may be directly or indirectly associated with the retrogradation characteristics of cooked rice. The softer gel consistency and lower amylose content in milled rice revealed the higher ratio of popped rice and larger bulk density of popping. The stronger hardness of rice grain showed relatively higher ratio of popping and the more chalky or less translucent rice exhibited the lower ratio of intact popped brown rice. The potassium and magnesium contents of milled rice were negatively associated with gross score of noodle making mixed with wheat flour in half and the better rice for noodle making revealed relatively less amount of solid extraction during boiling. The more volume expansion of batters for making brown rice bread resulted the better loaf formation and more springiness in rice breed. The higher protein rices produced relatively the more moist white rice bread. The springiness of rice bread was also significantly correlated with high amylose content and hard gel consistency. The completely chalky and large grain rices showed better suitability far fermentation and brewing. The glutinous rice were classified into nine different varietal groups based on various physicochemical and structural characteristics of endosperm. There was some close associations among these grain properties and large varietal difference in suitability to various traditional food processing. Our breeding efforts on improvement of rice quality for high palatability and processing utility or value-adding products in the future should focus on not only continuous enhancement of marketing and eating qualities but also the diversification in morphological, physicochemical and nutritional characteristics of rice grain suitable for processing various value-added rice foods.ice foods.