• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multiple Model Probabilistic Design

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Multiple-Model Probabilistic Design of Repetitive Controllers (연속반복학습제어의 복수모형 확률설계기법)

  • Lee, Soo-Cheol
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents a method to design a repetitive controller that is robust to variations in the system parameters. The uncertain parameters are specified probabilistically by their probability distribution functions. Instead of working with the distribution functions directly, the repetitive controller is designed from a set of models that are generated from the specified probability functions. With this multiple-model design approach, any number of uncertain parameters that follow any type of distribution functions can be treated. furthermore, the controller is derived by minimizing a frequency-domain based cost function that produces monotonic convergence of the tracking error as a function of repetition number. Numerical illustrations show how the proposed multiple-model design method produces a repetitive controller that is significantly more robust than an optimal repetitive controller designed from a single nominal model of the system.

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Multiple-Model Probabilistic Design for Centralized Repetitive Controllers of Multiple Systems (다물체시스템의 중앙집중 연속학습제어 복수모형 확률설계기법)

  • Lee, Soo-Cheol
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.99-105
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents a method to design a centralized repetitive controller that is robust to variations in the multiple system parameters. The uncertain parameters are specified probabilistically by their probability distribution functions. Instead of working with the distribution functions directly, the centralized repetitive controller is designed from a set of models that are generated from the specified probability functions. With this multiple-model design approach, any number of uncertain parameters that follow any type of distribution functions can be treated. Furthermore, the controller is derived by minimizing a frequency-domain based cost function that produces monotonic convergence of the tracking error as a function of repetition number. Numerical illustrations show how the proposed multiple-model design method produces a repetitive controller that is significantly more robust than an optimal repetitive controller designed from a single nominal model of the multiple system.

Probabilistic study on buildings with MTMD system in different seismic performance levels

  • Etedali, Sadegh
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.81 no.4
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    • pp.429-441
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    • 2022
  • A probabilistic assessment of the seismic-excited buildings with a multiple-tuned-mass-damper (MTMD) system is carried out in the presence of uncertainties of the structural model, MTMD system, and the stochastic model of the seismic excitations. A free search optimization procedure of the individual mass, stiffness and, damping parameters of the MTMD system based on the snap-drift cuckoo search (SDCS) optimization algorithm is proposed for the optimal design of the MTMD system. Considering a 10-story structure in three cases equipped with single tuned mass damper (STMS), 5-TMD and 10-TMD, sensitivity analyses are carried out using Sobol' indices based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Considering different seismic performance levels, the reliability analyses are done using MCS and kriging-based MCS methods. The results show the maximum structural responses are more affected by changes in the PGA and the stiffness coefficients of the structural floors and TMDs. The results indicate the kriging-based MCS method can estimate the accurate amount of failure probability by spending less time than the MCS. The results also show the MTMD gives a significant reduction in the structural failure probability. The effect of the MTMD on the reduction of the failure probability is remarkable in the performance levels of life safety and collapse prevention. The maximum drift of floors may be reduced for the nominal structural system by increasing the TMDs, however, the complexity of the MTMD model and increasing its corresponding uncertainty sources can be caused a slight increase in the failure probability of the structure.

Analysis of the Optimal Separation Distance between Multiple Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Caverns Based on Probabilistic Analysis (확률론적 해석에 기반한 다중 열저장공동의 적정 이격거리 분석)

  • Park, Dohyun;Kim, Hyunwoo;Park, Jung-Wook;Park, Eui-Seob;Sunwoo, Choon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2014
  • Multiple thermal energy storage (TES) caverns can be used for storing thermal energy on a large scale and for a high-aspect-ratio heat storage design to provide good thermal performance. It may also be necessary to consider the use of multiple caverns with a reduced length when a single, long tunnel-shaped cavern is not suitable for connection to aboveground heat production and injection equipments. When using multiple TES caverns, the separation distance between the caverns is one of the significant factors that should be considered in the design of storage space, and the optimal separation distance should be determined based on a quantitative stability criterion. In this paper, we described a numerical approach for determining the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns for large-scale TES utilization. For reliable stability evaluation of multiple caverns, we employed a probabilistic method which can quantitatively take into account the uncertainty of input parameters by probability distributions, unlike conventional deterministic approaches. The present approach was applied to the design of a conceptual TES model to store hot water for district heating. The probabilistic stability results of this application demonstrated that the approach in our work can be effectively used as a decision-making tool to determine the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns. In addition, the probabilistic results were compared to those obtained through a deterministic analysis, and the comparison results suggested that care should taken in selecting the acceptable level of stability when using deterministic approaches.

Reliability analysis of nuclear safety-class DCS based on T-S fuzzy fault tree and Bayesian network

  • Xu Zhang;Zhiguang Deng;Yifan Jian;Qichang Huang;Hao Peng;Quan Ma
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.1901-1910
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    • 2023
  • The safety-class (1E) digital control system (DCS) of nuclear power plant characterized structural multiple redundancies, therefore, it is important to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of DCS in different degree of backup loss. In this paper, a reliability evaluation model based on T-S fuzzy fault tree (FT) is proposed for 1E DCS of nuclear power plant, in which the connection relationship between components is described by T-S fuzzy gates. Specifically, an output rejection control system is chosen as an example, based on the T-S fuzzy FT model, the key indicators such as probabilistic importance are calculated, and for a further discussion, the T-S fuzzy FT model is transformed into Bayesian Network(BN) equivalently, and the fault diagnosis based on probabilistic analysis is accomplished. Combined with the analysis of actual objects, the effectiveness of proposed method is proved.

Posterior density estimation for structural parameters using improved differential evolution adaptive Metropolis algorithm

  • Zhou, Jin;Mita, Akira;Mei, Liu
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.735-749
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    • 2015
  • The major difficulty of using Bayesian probabilistic inference for system identification is to obtain the posterior probability density of parameters conditioned by the measured response. The posterior density of structural parameters indicates how plausible each model is when considering the uncertainty of prediction errors. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a widespread medium for posterior inference but its convergence is often slow. The differential evolution adaptive Metropolis-Hasting (DREAM) algorithm boasts a population-based mechanism, which nms multiple different Markov chains simultaneously, and a global optimum exploration ability. This paper proposes an improved differential evolution adaptive Metropolis-Hasting algorithm (IDREAM) strategy to estimate the posterior density of structural parameters. The main benefit of IDREAM is its efficient MCMC simulation through its use of the adaptive Metropolis (AM) method with a mutation strategy for ensuring quick convergence and robust solutions. Its effectiveness was demonstrated in simulations on identifying the structural parameters with limited output data and noise polluted measurements.

Probabilistic fatigue assessment of rib-to-deck joints using thickened edge U-ribs

  • Heng, Junlin;Zheng, Kaifeng;Kaewunruen, Sakdirat;Zhu, Jin;Baniotopoulos, Charalampos
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.799-813
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    • 2020
  • Fatigue cracks of rib-to-deck (RD) joints have been frequently observed in the orthotropic steel decks (OSD) using conventional U-ribs (CU). Thickened edge U-rib (TEU) is proposed to enhance the fatigue strength of RD joints, and its effectiveness has been proved through fatigue tests. In-depth full-scale tests are further carried out to investigate both the fatigue strength and fractography of RD joints. Based on the test result, the mean fatigue strength of TEU specimens is 21% and 17% higher than that of CU specimens in terms of nominal and hot spot stress, respectively. Meanwhile, the development of fatigue cracks has been measured using the strain gauges installed along the welded joint. It is found that such the crack remains almost in semi-elliptical shape during the initiation and propagation. For the further application of TEUs, the design curve under the specific survival rate is required for the RD joints using TEUs. Since the fatigue strength of welded joints is highly scattered, the design curves derived by using the limited test data only are not reliable enough to be used as the reference. On this ground, an experiment-numerical hybrid approach is employed. Basing on the fatigue test, a probabilistic assessment model has been established to predict the fatigue strength of RD joints. In the model, the randomness in material properties, initial flaws and local geometries has been taken into consideration. The multiple-site initiation and coalescence of fatigue cracks are also considered to improve the accuracy. Validation of the model has been rigorously conducted using the test data. By extending the validated model, large-scale databases of fatigue life could be generated in a short period. Through the regression analysis on the generated database, design curves of the RD joint have been derived under the 95% survival rate. As the result, FAT 85 and FAT 110 curves with the power index m of 2.89 are recommended in the fatigue evaluation on the RD joint using TEUs in terms of nominal stress and hot spot stress respectively. Meanwhile, FAT 70 and FAT 90 curves with m of 2.92 are suggested in the evaluation on the RD joint using CUs in terms of nominal stress and hot spot stress, respectively.

Naval ship's susceptibility assessment by the probabilistic density function

  • Kim, Kwang Sik;Hwang, Se Yun;Lee, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.1 no.4
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    • pp.266-271
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    • 2014
  • The survivability of the naval ship is the capability of a warship to avoid or withstand a hostile environment. The survivability of the naval ship assessed by three categories (susceptibility, vulnerability and recoverability). The magnitude of susceptibility of a warship encountering with threat is dependent upon the attributes of detection equipment and weapon system. In this paper, as a part of a naval ship's survivability analysis, an assessment process model for the ship's susceptibility analysis technique is developed. Naval ship's survivability emphasizing the susceptibility is assessed by the probability of detection, and the probability of hit. Considering the radar cross section (RCS), the assessment procedure for the susceptibility is described. It's emphasizing the simplified calculation model based on the probability density function for probability of hit. Assuming the probability of hit given a both single-hit and multiple-hit, the susceptibility is accessed for a RCS and the hit probability for a rectangular target is applied for a given threat.

Design and Implementation of OCR Correction Model for Numeric Digits based on a Context Sensitive and Multiple Streams (제한적 문맥 인식과 다중 스트림을 기반으로 한 숫자 정정 OCR 모델의 설계 및 구현)

  • Shin, Hyun-Kyung
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.18D no.1
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    • pp.67-80
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    • 2011
  • On an automated business document processing system maintaining financial data, errors on query based retrieval of numbers are critical to overall performance and usability of the system. Automatic spelling correction methods have been emerged and have played important role in development of information retrieval system. However scope of the methods was limited to the symbols, for example alphabetic letter strings, which can be reserved in the form of trainable templates or custom dictionary. On the other hand, numbers, a sequence of digits, are not the objects that can be reserved into a dictionary but a pure markov sequence. In this paper we proposed a new OCR model for spelling correction for numbers using the multiple streams and the context based correction on top of probabilistic information retrieval framework. We implemented the proposed error correction model as a sub-module and integrated into an existing automated invoice document processing system. We also presented the comparative test results that indicated significant enhancement of overall precision of the system by our model.

Strengthening Risk Evaluation in Existing Risk Diagnosis Method

  • Wong, Shui Yee;Chin, Kwai Sang;Tang, Dawei
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2010
  • An existing risk diagnosing methodology (RDM) diagnoses corporate risk for product-innovation projects. However, it cannot evaluate and compare the risk levels of multiple alternatives in the product development stage. This paper proposes a modified risk diagnosis method to fill the gap of risk evaluation in selections of innovative product alternatives and the application of the method will be also illustrated by a case problem on alternative selections in electrical dimmer designs. With RDM as the foundation, a modified RDM (MRDM) is proposed to deal with the problem of selecting innovative project alternatives during the early stages of product development. The Bayesian network; a probabilistic graphical model, is adopted to support the risk pre-assessment stage in the MRDM. The MRDM is proposed by incorporating the risk pre-assessment stage into the foundation. By evaluating the engineering design risks in two electrical dimmer switches, an application of the MRDM in product innovation development is successfully exemplified. This paper strengthens the existing methodology for RDM in innovative product development projects to accommodate innovative alternatives. It is advantageous for companies to identify and measure the risks associated in product development so as to plan for appropriate risk mitigation strategies.