• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multinomial likelihood

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Multinomial Logit Framework to Evaluate the Impact of Seating Position on Senior Occupant Injury Severity in Traffic Accidents (고령탑승자의 좌석별 상해정도에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2017
  • A rapid increase in traffic accidents involving senior vehicle occupants has been an issue in Korea because of the aging of the population occurring at one of the fastest rates in the world; unfortunately, few studies beyond several looking at the effect of senior occupants on the level of accident injury severity can be found in the literature. A Multinomial logit model was estimated with Newton-Raphson algorithm to perform bias-reducing penalized likelihood optimization. Model covariates integral to developing the model were included, but the main focus was on the interaction of seating position and injury to senior vehicle occupants. It was found that the likelihood of an accident resulting in a fatality increased: 2.2 times for the driver seat, 2.7 times for the front passenger seat, and even 6.7 times for the rear seat. A mandatory seatbelt law to be extended to the rear seat needs to pass the assembly as soon as possible, and government, industry, and safety groups should be encouraged to join forces to strongly carry out targeted campaigns for the wearing of seatbelts in all vehicle seats to enhance the safety of senior occupants as well as other occupants who are vulnerable to road traffic accidents.

A Note on Estimation of Multinomial Probabilities when Some Frequency Counts are Merged

  • Lee, Sang-Eun;Park, C.J.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.327-336
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    • 1999
  • In a multinomial sampling scheme some categories may be observed as partially classified because of technical or economic reasons. In this paper the maximum likelihood estimators(M.L.E) of multinomial probabilities are obtained when some frequencies are merged. We obtained the M.L.E and a method to evaluate the information gained by including merged frequencies in M.L.E we obtained an estimator of the covariance matrix and it is used to examine the information gained by including the merged frequency counts in estimating the cell probabilities. When certain individual frequency counts are missing a method is proposed for estimating the cell probabilities using EM algorithms.

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Part-time Jobs of Korean Married Women -The recent change in their state dependence- (기혼여성 시간제일자리의 상태의존성(state dependence) 변화)

  • Chung, Min Su
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.95-128
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    • 2018
  • This study tries to measure the change in the state dependence of the three labor supply choices (part-time, full-time, and the state of unemployed) in Korean married women's labor market by estimating the dynamic multinomial logit model based on MSL (maximum simulated likelihood) method. A component representing individual's unobserved characteristics has been introduced, because it is crucial to control for unobserved heterogeneity in assessing the state dependence. Estimation results show that the state dependences of the three alternatives have strengthened recently. Therefore, part-time job has become more likely to be functioning as an extra option to participate in labor market rather than a bridge(stepping stone) or shelter between unemployment and full-time job.

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Severity Analysis for Occupational Heat-related Injury Using the Multinomial Logit Model

  • Peiyi Lyu;Siyuan Song
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.200-207
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    • 2024
  • Background: Workers are often exposed to hazardous heat due to their work environment, leading to various injuries. As a result of climate change, heat-related injuries (HRIs) are becoming more problematic. This study aims to identify critical contributing factors to the severity of occupational HRIs. Methods: This study analyzed historical injury reports from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). Contributing factors to the severity of HRIs were identified using text mining and model-free machine learning methods. The Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) was applied to explore the relationship between impact factors and the severity of HRIs. Results: The results indicated a higher risk of fatal HRIs among middle-aged, older, and male workers, particularly in the construction, service, manufacturing, and agriculture industries. In addition, a higher heat index, collapses, heart attacks, and fall accidents increased the severity of HRIs, while symptoms such as dehydration, dizziness, cramps, faintness, and vomiting reduced the likelihood of fatal HRIs. Conclusions: The severity of HRIs was significantly influenced by factors like workers' age, gender, industry type, heat index , symptoms, and secondary injuries. The findings underscore the need for tailored preventive strategies and training across different worker groups to mitigate HRIs risks.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Multinomial Parameters with Known or Unknown Crossing Point

  • Lee, Ju-Young;Oh, Myongsik
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.947-956
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    • 1999
  • We define a crossing point $x_0$ such that f(x)$\geq$g(x) for x$\leq$$x_0$ and f(x)$\leq$g(x) for x>$x_0$ where f and g are probability density functions. We may encounter suchy situation when we compare two histograms from two independent observations. For example two contingency tables where initially admitted students and actually enrolled students are classified according to their high school ranking may show such situation, In this paper we consider maximum likelihood estimation of cell probabilities when a crossing point exists, We first assume a known crossing point and find an estimator. The estimation procedure for the case of unknown crossing point is just a straightforward extension. A real data is analyzed for an illustrative purpose.

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Predicting Employment Status of Injured Workers Following a Case Management Intervention

  • Awang, Halimah;Mansor, Norma
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.347-351
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    • 2018
  • Background: The success of an injury intervention program can be measured by the proportion of successful return to work (RTW). This study examined factors of successful return to employment among workers suffering from work-related injuries. Methods: Data were obtained from the Social Security Organization, Malaysia database consisting of 10,049 RTW program participants in 2010-2014. The dependent variable was the RTW outcome which consisted of RTW with same employer, RTW with new employer or unsuccessful return. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to test the likelihood of successful return with same employer and new employer against unsuccessful return. Results: Overall, 65.3% of injured workers were successfully returned to employment, 52.8% to the same employer and 12.5% to new employer. Employer interest; motivation; age 30-49 years; intervention less than 9 months; occupational disease; injuries in the lower limbs, upper limbs, and general injuries; and working in the manufacturing, services, and electrical/electronics were associated with returning to work with the same employer against unsuccessful return. Male, employer interest, motivation, age 49 years or younger, intervention less than 6 months, occupational disease, injuries in the upper limbs and services sector of employment were associated with returning to new employer against unsuccessful return. Conclusion: There is a need to strengthen employer commitment for early and intensified intervention that will lead to improvement in the RTW outcome.

Determinants of Consumer Preference by type of Accommodation: Two Step Cluster Analysis (이단계 군집분석에 의한 농촌관광 편의시설 유형별 소비자 선호 결정요인)

  • Park, Duk-Byeong;Yoon, Yoo-Shik;Lee, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2007
  • 1. Purpose Rural tourism is made by individuals with different characteristics, needs and wants. It is important to have information on the characteristics and preferences of the consumers of the different types of existing rural accommodation. The stud aims to identify the determinants of consumer preference by type of accommodations. 2. Methodology 2.1 Sample Data were collected from 1000 people by telephone survey with three-stage stratified random sampling in seven metropolitan areas in Korea. Respondents were chosen by sampling internal on telephone book published in 2006. We surveyed from four to ten-thirty 0'clock afternoon so as to systematic sampling considering respondents' life cycle. 2.2 Two-step cluster Analysis Our study is accomplished through the use of a two-step cluster method to classify the accommodation in a reduced number of groups, so that each group constitutes a type. This method had been suggested as appropriate in clustering large data sets with mixed attributes. The method is based on a distance measure that enables data with both continuous and categorical attributes to be clustered. This is derived from a probabilistic model in which the distance between two clusters in equivalent to the decrease in log-likelihood function as a result of merging. 2.3 Multinomial Logit Analysis The estimation of a Multionmial Logit model determines the characteristics of tourist who is most likely to opt for each type of accommodation. The Multinomial Logit model constitutes an appropriate framework to explore and explain choice process where the choice set consists of more than two alternatives. Due to its ease and quick estimation of parameters, the Multinomial Logit model has been used for many empirical studies of choice in tourism. 3. Findings The auto-clustering algorithm indicated that a five-cluster solution was the best model, because it minimized the BIC value and the change in them between adjacent numbers of clusters. The accommodation establishments can be classified into five types: Traditional House, Typical Farmhouse, Farmstay house for group Tour, Log Cabin for Family, and Log Cabin for Individuals. Group 1 (Traditional House) includes mainly the large accommodation establishments, i.e. those with ondoll style room providing meals and one shower room on family tourist, of original construction style house. Group 2 (Typical Farmhouse) encompasses accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms and each bathroom providing meals. It includes, in other words, the tourist accommodations Known as "rural houses." Group 3 (Farmstay House for Group) has accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms not providing meals and self cooking facilities, large room size over five persons. Group 4 (Log Cabin for Family) includes mainly the popular accommodation establishments, i.e. those with Ondoll style room with on shower room on family tourist, of western styled log house. While the accommodations in this group are not defined as regards type of construction, the group does include all the original Korean style construction, Finally, group 5 (Log Cabin for Individuals)includes those accommodations that are bedroom western styled wooden house with each bathroom. First Multinomial Logit model is estimated including all the explicative variables considered and taking accommodation group 2 as base alternative. The results show that the variables and the estimated values of the parameters for the model giving the probability of each of the five different types of accommodation available in rural tourism village in Korea, according to the socio-economic and trip related characteristics of the individuals. An initial observation of the analysis reveals that none of variables income, the number of journey, distance, and residential style of house is explicative in the choice of rural accommodation. The age and accompany variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 1. The education and rural residential experience variables are significant for accommodation establishment of groups 4 and 5. The expenditure and marital status variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 4. The gender and occupation variable are significant for accommodation establishment of group 3. The loyalty variable is significant for accommodation establishment of groups 3 and 4. The study indicates that significant differences exist among the individuals who choose each type of accommodation at a destination. From this investigation is evident that several profiles of tourists can be attracted by a rural destination according to the types of existing accommodations at this destination. Besides, the tourist profiles may be used as the basis for investment policy and promotion for each type of accommodation, making use in each case of the variables that indicate a greater likelihood of influencing the tourist choice of accommodation.

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An Input Domain-Based Software Reliability Growth Model In Imperfect Debugging Environment (불완전 디버깅 환경에서 Input Domain에 기초한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 성장 모델)

  • Park, Joong-Yang;Kim, Young-Soon;Hwang, Yang-Sook
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.9D no.4
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    • pp.659-666
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    • 2002
  • Park, Seo and Kim (12) developed the input domain-based SRGM, which was able to quantitatively assess the reliability of a software system during the testing and operational phases. They assumed perfect debugging during testing and debugging phase. To make this input domain-based SRGM more realistic, this assumption should be relaxed. In this paper we generalize the input domain-based SRGM under imperfect debugging. Then its statistical characteristics are investigated.

An Exploratory Study on User Characteristics of Social Media: From the Perspective of Consumer Innovativeness (소셜미디어 이용자 특성에 대한 탐색적 연구: 소비자혁신성을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Hyunchul;Kim, Yongwon;Kim, Yongkyu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.195-206
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to analyze the effect of consumer characteristics such as consumer innovativeness on using popular social media in Korea. Social media usage is estimated by probit and multinomial probit model with user characteristics using Korea media panel data of 2019. According to the analysis, users with hedonoc innovativeness are likely to use social media, while users with cognitive innovativeness are not likely to use it. Regarding individual social media usage, functional innovativeness increases the probability of using Kakaostory, and hedonic innovativeness increases the likelihood of using Instagram. However, cognitive innovativeness decreases the probability of using Kakaosotry and Naver Band. This study gives insights into finding out specific social media for marketing certain products with innovativeness. In future research, it may be worthwhile to analyze under the assumption that a social media user is using several social media simultaneously.

Comparison of Determinants of Healthy Food Intake Before and After COVID-19 - Based on 2019~2021 Consumer Behavior Survey for Food - (COVID-19 전후 건강식품 섭취 여부 결정요인 비교 - 2019년~2021년 식품소비행태조사 자료 이용 -)

  • Su-yeon Jung;Na-young Kim;Eun-seo Jeon;Keum-il Jang;Seon-woong Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.309-320
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    • 2023
  • This study examined the determinants of healthy food purchases before and after COVID-19 in Korea. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression models were applied to Korea Rural Economic Institute's Food Consumer Behavior Survey data from 2019 to 2021. The analysis revealed a significant decrease in the non-intake of healthy food in 2021 compared to 2019, suggesting the impact of COVID-19 on healthy food consumption. Consumption patterns also changed, with a decrease in direct purchases and an increase in gift-based purchases. Several variables showed significant effects on healthy food intake. Single-person households exhibited a higher probability of eating healthy food after COVID-19. The group perceiving themselves as healthy had a lower likelihood of consuming healthy food pre-COVID-19, but this changed after the pandemic. Online food purchases, eco-friendly food purchases, and nut consumption showed a gradual decrease in the probability of non-intake over time. Gender and age also influenced healthy food intake. The probability of eating healthy food increased in the older age group compared to the younger group, and the probability increased significantly after COVID-19. The probability of buying gifts was significantly higher in those in their 60s, indicating that the path to obtaining healthy food differed by age.