• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multinomial Logit Model

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Search for an Optimal-Path Considering Various Attributes (다양한 경로속성을 고려한 최적경로 탐색)

  • Hahn, Jin-Seok;Chon, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 2008
  • Existing shortest-path algorithms mainly consider a single attribute. But traveler actually chooses a route considering not single attribute but various attributes which are synthesized travel time, route length, personal preference, etc. Therefore, to search the optimal path, these attributes are considered synthetically. In this study route searching algorithm which selects the maximum utility route using discrete choice model has developed in order to consider various attributes. Six elements which affect route choice are chosen for the route choice model and parameters of the models are estimated using survey data. A multinomial logit models are developed to design the function of route choice model. As a result, the model which has route length, delay time, the number of turning as parameter is selected based on the significance test. We use existing shortest path algorithm, which can reflect urban transportation network such as u-turn or p-turn, and apply it to the real network.

A Prediction of Forest Vegetation based on Land Cover Change in 2090 (토지피복 변화를 반영한 미래의 산림식생 분포 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Kun;Kim, Jae-Uk;Park, Chan
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2010
  • Korea's researchers have recently studied the prediction of forest change, but they have not considered landuse/cover change compared to distribution of forest vegetation. The purpose of our study is to predict forest vegetation based on landuse/cover change on the Korean Peninsula in the 2090's. The methods of this study were Multi-layer perceptrom neural network for Landuse/cover (water, urban, barren, wetland, grass, forest, agriculture) change and Multinomial Logit Model for distribution prediction for forest vegetation (Pinus densiflora, Quercus Spp., Alpine Plants, Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants). The classification accuracy of landuse/cover change on the Korean Peninsula was 71.3%. Urban areas expanded with large cities as the central, but forest and agriculture area contracted by 6%. The distribution model of forest vegetation has 63.6% prediction accuracy. Pinus densiflora and evergreen broad-leaved plants increased but Quercus Spp. and alpine plants decreased from the model. Finally, the results of forest vegetation based on landuse/cover change increased Pinus densiflora to 38.9% and evergreen broad-leaved plants to 70% when it is compared to the current climate. But Quercus Spp. decreased 10.2% and alpine plants disappeared almost completely for most of the Korean Peninsula. These results were difficult to make a distinction between the increase of Pinus densiflora and the decrease of Quercus Spp. because of they both inhabit a similar environment on the Korean Peninsula.

Prediction of box office using data mining (데이터마이닝을 이용한 박스오피스 예측)

  • Jeon, Seonghyeon;Son, Young Sook
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1257-1270
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    • 2016
  • This study deals with the prediction of the total number of movie audiences as a measure for the box office. Prediction is performed by classification techniques of data mining such as decision tree, multilayer perceptron(MLP) neural network model, multinomial logit model, and support vector machine over time such as before movie release, release day, after release one week, and after release two weeks. Predictors used are: online word-of-mouth(OWOM) variables such as the portal movie rating, the number of the portal movie rater, and blog; in addition, other variables include showing the inherent properties of the film (such as nationality, grade, release month, release season, directors, actors, distributors, the number of audiences, and screens). When using 10-fold cross validation technique, the accuracy of the neural network model showed more than 90 % higher predictability before movie release. In addition, it can be seen that the accuracy of the prediction increases by adding estimates of the final OWOM variables as predictors.

A Review on Dynamic Changes of Consumer's Attributes and Marketing Mix Strategies of Cut Roses in Korea (장미에 대한 선호속성의 동태적 변화와 마케팅 믹스전략 탐색)

  • Kim, Bae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.4328-4336
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    • 2011
  • The aim of this study is to find changes of the attributes that influence the purchase of cut roses during recent five years(2007~2011) and suggest some implications on ways to promote cut roses marketing. For this purpose, a survey was conducted through the Internet among 1,100 randomly chosen people living in Seoul, Inchon and Gyeonggi Province in 2011. A total of 1,023 valid replies were received for the analysis of the survey which was carried out by the subsidiary consulting firm. The survey panels and estimation models to analyze changes of consumers' preference attributes during recent five years are same to them of Kim, et al.(2007). That is, empirical analysis tools such as ordered probit model, multinomial logit model, and conjoint analysis were used according to Kim, et al.(2007). This paper suggests several policy implications to set up the target market of cut roses and marketing mix strategy to specify the best 4P(product, price, place and promotion).

A Study on Bicycle Accident Patterns at Urban Intersections (도시부 교차로에서의 자전거 사고유형 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Hoon;Cho, Han-Seon;Kim, Eung-Cheol
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2008
  • Recently, users of bicycles as a green mode are rising sharply, but there are few efforts to increase bicycle safety and to decrease the number of accidents between vehicles and bicycle users. Therefore, this research seeks to improve bicycle safety at intersections by analysing causation factors of bicycle accidents pattern and providing optimal intersection design guidelines. For this study, real bicycle accident data of fifty six occurred in the Incheon metropolitan area in the year of 2005 were collected and field surveys were conducted. In addition, this research developed a bicycle accident pattern model with using multinomial logit model. The model results showed that presence of fatality, presence of traffic islands on the minor road, highway_type, weather, presence of traffic bus_stop on the major road, minor road lane width, victim induce factor are significant for bicycle safety.

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Modal Choice with Travel Time Reliability (통행시간 신뢰도를 고려한 통행수단선택모형에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Doo-Hee;Park, Dong-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2004
  • In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.

Usefulness of In-store Spotting Survey in Developing a Supermarket Location Analysis Model (내점객 인터뷰에 근거한 슈퍼마켓 입지분석 모델의 실용성 평가)

  • 서성무;고윤배
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.5.1-5.11
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    • 1998
  • 이 연구는 2차자료가 부족한 우리나라 슈퍼마켓 업체의 여건을 감안하여 간편하게 활용할 수 있는 입지분석 모델의 가능성을 탐구하였다. 연구모델은 두 가지 기준을 근거로 모두 네가지 모델을 설정하고 비교검토했다. 먼저 표본추출방법에 의해 내점객표본과 지역할당표본으로 분류하고, 이것을 다시 포함하는 변수의 범위에 따라 축소모델과 확장모델로 구분하였다. 공간상호작용모델의 추정에는 MNL(Multinomial Logit)방식을 이용했다. 분석결과 내점객표본으로 조사해서 얻은 응답자의 주거지와 주로 찾는 점포, 그리고 사전적으로 입수한 경쟁점포의 매장면적, 인접점포까지의 거리에 대한 자료만을 이용해서 추정한 가장 간단한 모델이 비교적 만족스러운 결과를 나타냈다.

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Evaluating Proton Accelerator in Korea (양성자가속기시설의 편익분석)

  • Jeong, Kiho;Cho, Jinsam;Kim, Jeeyoung;Kim, Junyeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.741-760
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    • 2006
  • As a part of the 21st Century Frontier Projects, Korea is building a proton linear accelerator complex. Using the discrete choice conjoint analysis method, this study evaluates the complex. Multinomial logit model is employed as an econometric model and Hicks' compensating variation is adopted as a welfare measure. The results show that an average willingness-to-pay (WTP) of a would-be user measured by the compensating variation is estimated by 1.93 million Korean won per hour for the specification of the complex being built.

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A Exploratory Study on the Determinants of Welfare Attitudes of Korean Youth: Focusing on Old Age Responsibility (한국 청소년의 복지의식 결정요인에 대한 탐색적 연구: 노후복지 책임주체를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Shin-Young
    • Survey Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.23-42
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    • 2008
  • This study purports to examine the potential determinants of welfare attitudes of Korean Youth. In a sense, this study could be considered as exploratory since the independent variables for model are chosen in a somewhat arbitrary manner. The independent variables are mostly value orientation of Youth. The welfare attitude is measured by the question asking respondent's nonnative idea on the primary care-giver in the old age. Data has been collected by National Youth Policy Institute as a part of research project, named "Korean Youth Development Indicators". The analysis shows that the welfare attitudes of Korean youth is influenced. by a number of factors. such as parent's education, a proxy for the parents' SES, attitude toward equality. and state's responsibility in general. The author contends that although this is an exploratory kind of study, this study contributes not only to the research in the field, hut also to the welfare policy-makers by providing generalizable outcomes on the value and attitudes of Korean youth on welfare issues. After all, policy needs public supports to be sustained.

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Analysis of Vehicle Demand by Fuel Types including Hydrogen Vehicles (수소차를 포함한 연료유형에 따른 자동차 수요 분석)

  • Yuhyeon Bak;Jee Young Kim;Yoon Lee
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.167-190
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the potential demand for automobiles based on fuel type using survey data in Korea. The dependent variable of the model is the future desired fuel type, including gasoline, diesel, hybrid, electricity, and hydrogen. The main explanatory variables are the respondent demographic characteristics, key reasons for choosing vehicle fuel type and environmental awareness extracted via principal component analysis (PCA). Using a multinomial logit (MNL) model, we find that respondents who consider fuel economy and infrastructure increase the demand for a hybrid car but decrease the demand for electric and hydrogen vehicles. The denial-types increase the demand for gasoline (petrol) and diesel (light oil), and decrease the demand for electric vehicles. The anxiety-types increase the demand of hybrid vehicles, and decrease the demand for electric vehicles. In contrast, in the case of pro-types, the demand for diesel (light oil) hydrogen vehicles decreased.