• 제목/요약/키워드: Multinomial Logit Model

검색결과 134건 처리시간 0.576초

Economic Values of Recreational Water: Rafting on the Hantan River (수자원의 휴양가치분석 : 한탄강 래프팅을 사례로)

  • Kwon, Oh Sang;Lim, YoungAh;Kim, Won Hee
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.427-449
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    • 2007
  • This study estimates the recreation benefits of rafting on the Hantan River. A choice experiment is conducted and the economic values of controlling water stream and water quality are estimated. Both the conditional logit and the multinomial pro bit models are estimated. This study rejects the IIA assumption of the conditional log it model and supports using a more flexible model such as the multinomial probit model.

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A Study for the Development of Motion Picture Box-office Prediction Model (영화 흥행 결정 요인과 흥행 성과 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Yon-Hyong;Hong, Jeong-Han
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제18권6호
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    • pp.859-869
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    • 2011
  • Interest has increased in academic research regarding key factors that drive box-office success as well as the ability to predict the box-office success of a movie from a commercial perspective. This study analyzed the relationship between key success factors of a movie and box office records based on movies released in 2010 in Korea. At the pre-production investment decision-making stage, the movie genre, motion picture rating, director power, and actor power were statistically significant. At the stage of distribution decision-making process after movie production, among other factors, the influence of star actors, number of screens, power of distributors, and social media turned out to be statistically significant. We verified movie success factors through the application of a Multinomial Logit Model that used the concept of choice probabilities. The Multinomial Logit Model resulted in a higher level of accuracy in predicting box-office success compared to the Artificial Neural Network and Discriminant Analysis.

Wife-older Marriage and Economic Factors : Empirical Analysis (우리나라 여성연상 결혼의 경제적 요인 : 실증분석)

  • Sung, Nak-Il;Jo, Dong-Hyuk
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2010
  • This study examines difference in age at marriage between spouses and more importantly, investigates into the economic and social factors affecting the ratio or probability of wife-older marriages. Empirical analysis is carried out by applying both logit model and multinomial logit model to an independently pooled cross-section over 2004-2007. The data was collected mainly from the micro data service system of the Statistics Korea. Empirical results indicate that a wife-older marriage was more likely as a wife was more educated and was a larger income earner than a husband. On the other hand, a wife's educational and income level themselves had few systematic relationships with the probability of a wife-older marriage. The probability of a wife-older marriage tended to decrease(increase) when a husband's(a wife's) marriage was the second' The study calculates the average marginal effect of difference in the income level between spouses on the probability of a wife-older marriage, which is -0.007. That is, the probability of a wife-older marriage increases by 0.7% as a husband's income level is 1 million Korean Won less than a wife's. This results presents empirical evidence against widely distributed misconception on wife-older marriage in the mass media.

Valuation and Preference of Urban Agriculture Park using Choice Experiment (도시농업공원 조성에 대한 선호와 가치평가)

  • Heo, Joo-Nyung;Kim, Tae-Gon
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.125-137
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    • 2013
  • The Purpose of this paper is to estimates consumers' willingness to pay for Urban Agriculture Park attributes. we analysis the marginal WTP by choice experiment method. Choice experiment (CE) is designed to elicit the marginal WTP differences among urban agriculture park attributes (garden scales, learning and experience area, leisure and relaxation area and fund). The results of multinomial logit model are meaningful, the total marginal WTP on the urban agriculture park attributes is 18,852 won. gardens scales is 2,949 won, learning and experience area is 11,284 won, leisure and relaxation area is 4,619 won. In the current laws, the facilities related to urban agriculture park is not. Taking advantage of the new urban agriculture park, Amendments of the law is required.

A Study on Users' Travel Behavior Analysis of Transit Transfer (대중교통 이용자의 환승교통수단선택 행태분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Kim, Jae Seok;Kim, Min Seok;Woo, Yong Han
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2013
  • This study developed the transit transfer mode choice model aimed Daegu transit users using multinomial logit model. Dependent variables of estimating multinomial logit model were transit transfer modes such as bus to bus, bus to subway, subway to subway, bus to others, and subway to others, and explanatory variables which affect transit transfer mode choice were sex, age, occupation, handicap, transfer area, purpose of travel and travel time. Also probability regarding explanatory variables was estimated using multinomial logit model and limit marginal analysis was carried out according to explanatory variables(cost, time). In the results, indicating goodness of fit is very reasonable as ${\rho}^2$=0.354. According to the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability, when travel time is increased, users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use subway to subway. Furthermore users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use bus to others and subway to others when travel cost is increased in the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability.

The Study of the Effect of Tour Site Personality and Attributes on the Choice of Tour Site (관광지 개성과 속성이 관광지 선택에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Byung-Hoon;Ahn, Kwnag-Ho;Ha, Jae-Won
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.149-168
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of brand personality on the choice of tour site. For this purpose, Japanese, Chinese and Korean tourists visiting Jeju-Ireland were sampled and asked to evaluate the personality dimensions and attributes of six major tour sites in Asia. Factor analysis is applied to 42 personality scales of Aaker and 5 personality dimensions are extracted. Then, Multinomial Logit model is applied to estimate the relative impact of personality dimensions and attributes on the choice of tour sites. Results suggest useful implications. The personality of tour sites has meaningful influence on choice of tour sites, in some cases more important than tour site attributes. Among 5 dimensions of personality, sincerity and excitement are found to be important dimensions in the choice process of tour site. Sophistication of the site, expressed as glamorous, charming, handsomeness, uniqueness, and smooth, is also found to be important in determining intention to visit in the future.

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An Analysis of Multiple-Vehicle Accidents on Freeways Using Multinomial Logit Model (다항로짓모형을 이용한 고속도로 다중추돌사고 특성 분석)

  • Jeon, Hyeonmyeong;Kim, Jinhee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to analyze effects of factors on the number of vehicles involved in traffic accidents on freeway sections. In previous studies about traffic accident severity, the analysis of accidents involving multiple vehicles was insufficient. However, multiple-vehicle accidents are likely to cause casualties and are the main reasons increasing accident duration and social costs. In this study, the number of vehicles involved in an accident was interpreted as the result of the accident, not as the cause of the accident, and the impacts of each accident factor were analyzed using a multinomial logit model. The results indicate that multiple-vehicle accidents are mainly related to following factors: nighttime, driver's faults, obstacles on the road, a downhill slope, heavy vehicles, and freeway mainline sections including tunnels and bridges.

A Study on Choice Behavior of Theme Park Visitors - Application of Nested Logit Model - (주제공원 이용자들의 선택행동 추정에 관한 연구 -Nested Logit Model의 적용)

  • 홍성권
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.96-111
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    • 1997
  • This study was carried out to identify users' choice behavior of theme parks. overland. Lotte World, Seoul Land, Dreamland and Children's Grand Park were selected as study areas. Both multinomial logic model(MNL), nested logic model(NMNL) and joint logit model wet$.$e test using a choice-based sample collected on study areas. Hausman-McFadden test showed that the MNL is not appropriate because the IIA assumption is violated. To avoid the problematic IIA assumption, the NMNL was tested. It splits similar alternatives into groups and nests separate decisions into hierarchical order to avoid the IIA assumption. Cluster analysis and discriminant analysis were conducted to find applicable nest structures. The inclusive value coefficient was 0.7788. It meant that sufficient condition of this model is met and users' choice behavior can be better understood by NMNL than MNL. The $\rho$2 value and accuracy of prediction of this model were 0.402 and 46.33% , respectively. Several comments were suggested to make the NMNL to be more reliable for future research on users' choice behavior of theme park.

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Determinants of Consumer Preference by type of Accommodation: Two Step Cluster Analysis (이단계 군집분석에 의한 농촌관광 편의시설 유형별 소비자 선호 결정요인)

  • Park, Duk-Byeong;Yoon, Yoo-Shik;Lee, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2007
  • 1. Purpose Rural tourism is made by individuals with different characteristics, needs and wants. It is important to have information on the characteristics and preferences of the consumers of the different types of existing rural accommodation. The stud aims to identify the determinants of consumer preference by type of accommodations. 2. Methodology 2.1 Sample Data were collected from 1000 people by telephone survey with three-stage stratified random sampling in seven metropolitan areas in Korea. Respondents were chosen by sampling internal on telephone book published in 2006. We surveyed from four to ten-thirty 0'clock afternoon so as to systematic sampling considering respondents' life cycle. 2.2 Two-step cluster Analysis Our study is accomplished through the use of a two-step cluster method to classify the accommodation in a reduced number of groups, so that each group constitutes a type. This method had been suggested as appropriate in clustering large data sets with mixed attributes. The method is based on a distance measure that enables data with both continuous and categorical attributes to be clustered. This is derived from a probabilistic model in which the distance between two clusters in equivalent to the decrease in log-likelihood function as a result of merging. 2.3 Multinomial Logit Analysis The estimation of a Multionmial Logit model determines the characteristics of tourist who is most likely to opt for each type of accommodation. The Multinomial Logit model constitutes an appropriate framework to explore and explain choice process where the choice set consists of more than two alternatives. Due to its ease and quick estimation of parameters, the Multinomial Logit model has been used for many empirical studies of choice in tourism. 3. Findings The auto-clustering algorithm indicated that a five-cluster solution was the best model, because it minimized the BIC value and the change in them between adjacent numbers of clusters. The accommodation establishments can be classified into five types: Traditional House, Typical Farmhouse, Farmstay house for group Tour, Log Cabin for Family, and Log Cabin for Individuals. Group 1 (Traditional House) includes mainly the large accommodation establishments, i.e. those with ondoll style room providing meals and one shower room on family tourist, of original construction style house. Group 2 (Typical Farmhouse) encompasses accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms and each bathroom providing meals. It includes, in other words, the tourist accommodations Known as "rural houses." Group 3 (Farmstay House for Group) has accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms not providing meals and self cooking facilities, large room size over five persons. Group 4 (Log Cabin for Family) includes mainly the popular accommodation establishments, i.e. those with Ondoll style room with on shower room on family tourist, of western styled log house. While the accommodations in this group are not defined as regards type of construction, the group does include all the original Korean style construction, Finally, group 5 (Log Cabin for Individuals)includes those accommodations that are bedroom western styled wooden house with each bathroom. First Multinomial Logit model is estimated including all the explicative variables considered and taking accommodation group 2 as base alternative. The results show that the variables and the estimated values of the parameters for the model giving the probability of each of the five different types of accommodation available in rural tourism village in Korea, according to the socio-economic and trip related characteristics of the individuals. An initial observation of the analysis reveals that none of variables income, the number of journey, distance, and residential style of house is explicative in the choice of rural accommodation. The age and accompany variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 1. The education and rural residential experience variables are significant for accommodation establishment of groups 4 and 5. The expenditure and marital status variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 4. The gender and occupation variable are significant for accommodation establishment of group 3. The loyalty variable is significant for accommodation establishment of groups 3 and 4. The study indicates that significant differences exist among the individuals who choose each type of accommodation at a destination. From this investigation is evident that several profiles of tourists can be attracted by a rural destination according to the types of existing accommodations at this destination. Besides, the tourist profiles may be used as the basis for investment policy and promotion for each type of accommodation, making use in each case of the variables that indicate a greater likelihood of influencing the tourist choice of accommodation.

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Factors Influencing on the Perception of Helpfulness of Marking the Country of Origin in Predicting the Quality and Safety of Pork (돼지고기 원산지 표시의 도움에 대한 지각도에 미치는 영향 요인 평가)

  • Lee, Seong-Hee;Kang, Jong-Heon
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to measure the factors influencing on the perception of helpfulness of marking the country of origin in predicting the quality and safety of pork. A total of 239 questionnaires were completed. A multinomial logit model is specified in order to estimate which factors influence the probability that a consumer perceives the country of origin as helpful in assessing food quality and food safety. The estimations were carried out using the logistic procedure of SAS. The results are as follows. The proportional odds assumptions of models were not violated at p<0.05. The effects of age, income, children, occupation and respondents informed on the importance of the country of origin in pork quality model were statistically significant. The effects of age, children, occupation and trust on the importance of the country of origin in pork safety model were statistically significant. The results from this study could be useful in developing marketing and health promotion strategies as well as government trade policies.

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