• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multinomial Logit Model

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Toward Stochastic Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model: Development and Application Experiences (Stochastic Dynamic Assignment 모형의 개발과 활용)

  • 이인원;정란희
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.67-86
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    • 1993
  • A formulation of dynamic traffic assignment between multiple origins and single destination was first introduced in 1987 by Merchant and Nemhauser, and then expanded for multiple destination in the late 1980's (Carey, 1987). Based on behavioral choice theory which provides proper demand elasticities with respect to changes in policy variables, traffic phenomena can be analysed more realistically, especially in peak periods. However, algorithms for these models are not well developed so far(working with only small toy network) and solutions of these models are not unique. In this paper, a new model is developed which keeps the simplicity of static models, but provides the sensitivity of dynamic models with changes of O-D flows over time. It can be viewed as a joint departure time and route choice model, in the given time periods(6-7, 7-8, 8-9 and 9-10 am). Standard multinomial logit model has been used for simulating the choice behavior of destination, mode, route and departure time within a framework of the incremental network assignment model. The model developed is workable in a PC 386 with 175 traffic zones and 3581 links of Seoul and tested for evaluating the exclusive use of Namsan tunnel for HOV and the left-turn prohibition. Model's performance results and their statistical significance are also presented.

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An Analysis of Consumers' Consumption Behavior of Environment-friendly Mandarin and Attributes of Mandarin in Korea (소비자의 친환경감귤 소비실태와 감귤의 선호속성 분석)

  • Ko, Seong-Bo
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.189-204
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this paper is to analyze consumers' consumption behavior of environment-friendly mandarin and attributes of mandarin in Korea. It is also to measure consumers' marginal willingness to pay by the attributes of mandarin and to estimate the market-share by products of mandarin from the data surveyed by a survey research company. The questionnaires for consumers were given randomly by interview to 500 married women lived in Seoul and to 200 wholesaler in Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Kwangju. The conjoint analysis method was used to analyze consumers' preference and suggest several implications for the rational production and marketing policy of mandarin.

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Analyzing Consumer's Preference for the Potential Value of Coastal Wetland Ecotourism Using Contingent Choice Method (갯벌생태관광에 대한 소비자의 잠재가치 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Jeong-In;Lee, Joo-Suk;Shin, Chul-Oh
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2011
  • As tourist are becoming increasingly environmentally conscious, government and related companies need to establish policies or strategies that encourage ecotourism. The aim of this study is to analyze individual preferences and estimate shadow prices, namely, willingness to pay for coastal wetland ecotourism. This study applies a contingent choice method to measuring marginal WTP for each attribute (tour duration, number of visitors, guide, program) of coastal wetland ecotourism. The finding herein contribute to complementing the valuation methods by estimating various attributes of coastal wetland ecotourism and providing policy-makers with useful methodological framework and quantitative information in the decision-making process related to ecotourism.

Gender Difference in Job Mobility in Korean Labor Markets (한국노동시장의 남녀 직장이동 요인별 차이와 직장이동 유형별 임금 변화)

  • Lee, Woojeong;Choi, Minsik
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.117-146
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    • 2012
  • This study demonstrates the gender difference in the factors that affect job changes and the resulting wage changes in the recent Korean labor market. By using the KEAPS (2003-2007), we found that male workers uniquely tend to stay longer at their current jobs when they have families to support. After controlling self-selection bias, we also found that wage changes resulting from switching jobs differ between male and female workers during this studied period.

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Dynamic Interaction of Performance Information and Word-of-Mouth in Film Industry (영화공급사슬 내 성과정보와 입소문 효과의 동적상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Wonhee
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.125-143
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    • 2015
  • When studying the film industry, researchers have seldom addressed the dynamic interaction between marketing information and word of mouth in the motion picture industry mainly because of the limitation of traditional research methodologies. This study explores integration and competition among important variables influencing on audience's choice on movie selection, particularly by using a new method of agent-based modeling including competitive environment. Decision process of moviegoer composed of transition probability based on multinomial logit model, considering marketing and box-office information, critique, and word of mouth from other moviegoers. After validating the fitness of market share among released movies, this study conducted a set of simulation experiments considering several variables such as market size, change of weight between variables, and movie performance under competition. Propositions are derived from the simulation results is also suggested for future research.

Parameter Estimation and Validation of a Multinomial Logit Model for the Prediction of Mode Shift as a Result of TDM Schemes in Seoul (교통수요관리정책의 효과분석을 위한 다항로짓모형의 적용 - 서울시 사례 -)

  • 황기연;김익기;이우철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 1998
  • 본 연구의 목적은 '96년말 서울시에서 실시한 가구통행조사를 이용하여 서울시 수단선택모형을 구축하고 그 예측결과를 남산 혼잡통행료 전후저사자료와 비교하여 보다 구체적으로 그 정확성을 검증한 뒤 향후 서울시 교통수요관리 방안의 시행에 따른 수단선택변화 예측의 기본 모형으로 활용하는데 있다. 5가지의 대안모형의 분석결과 통행비용변수(승용차의 경유 주차요금포함)와 총통행시간변수(OVTT와 IVTT의 합), 승용차, 지하철, 택시상수로 구성된 모형이 최적모형으로 분석되었다. 이모형에 의한 시간가치는 9,395원, 승용차의 비용탄력성은-0.6767로서 기존 연구결과의 범위 내에 속한 것으로 나타났다. 최적모형을 이용하여 승용차통행비용이 증가한 경우를 모사분석결과 남산1,3호 터널 혼잡통행료 징수효과와 유사하게 승용차 분담율이 13% 가까이 감소한 것으로 나타나서 모형의 현실적합성도 비교적 높은 것으로 판명되었다. 향후 본 연구에서 선정된 최적수단선택모형을 통행배정모형과 결합하여 다양한 교통수요관리 방안에 따른 효과를 예측하는데 활용하면 서울과 같은 대도시의 단기적 교통관리의 수준을 한 단계 높이는데 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

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Analyzing Factors to Affect Trip Mode Chaining Behavior Using Travel Diary Survey Data in Seoul (가구통행실태조사 자료를 활용한 서울시 연계수단 통행행태의 영향요인 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Su jae;Choo, Sang ho;Kim, Ji yoon;Han, Jae yoon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.55-70
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as shared transportation services has expanded, integrated mobility services that link personal transportation and public transportation are paid attention. To do this, it is necessary to analyze trip mode chaining behavior. This study analyzed the characteristics of the trip mode chaining behavior using the 2010 travel diary survey in Seoul, and analyzed factors to affect mode choice of trip chaining through the multinomial logit model. The transportation means were classified into passenger cars, city buses, intercity buses, railways, taxis, and others, and 25 trip mode chaining types were identified. Among them, the trip share connected between city bus and railways was the highest. It was also found that the trip mode chaining occurred mainly at commuting and in the morning and afternoon peak. According to the model results, the mode choice of trip chaining is significantly influenced by individual attributes (sex and age), household attributes (car ownership and income), trip attributes (trip purpose, trip time and trip length), and arrival area attributes (number of subway lines and bus lines, ratio of commercial area, land use mix and central region).

A Study on the Choice Factors and Possibility of Traditional Market - Compared to Other Competing Markets Based on Consumer Behavior Analyses - (소비행태분석을 통한 전통시장과 경쟁시장 간 선택요인 및 이용확률 비교분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Joong;Cho, Kyu-Young;Lee, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.81-102
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    • 2010
  • The present study analyzes the choice factors and possibility of traditional and other competing markets through consumer behavior analyses in order to suggest factors that can help reactivate traditional markets. Hence, Multinomial Logit Model is used as it is an optimum model to understand discrete selection. The results suggested some tendencies regarding traditional market. For example, traditional market is more activated when the market is large and has more parking spaces, and when the level of consumer satisfaction is high. While, increased travel distance and time have negative effects on visitor's choice. Governmental supports are turned out to have less to do with the consumer attraction. People with higher incomes tend to prefer other types of market. The results also suggested there is more likelihood of traditional markets being reactivated if the market is not fiercely competing with other types of markets. Internet market is ranked top in consumer's choice possibility, while traditional market is ranked at the bottom. The plausible factors to reactivate traditional market were physical factors(including increasing shops and parking facilities), which is followed by governmental support.

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Calculation of Travel Time Values in Seoul Metropolitan Area Considering Unique Travel Patterns (수도권 통행 특성을 고려한 통행시간가치 산정 연구)

  • KIM, Kyung Hyun;LEE, Jang-Ho;YUN, Ilsoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.481-498
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    • 2017
  • Travel time reduction benefit is the most important benefit item in the feasibility study of transportation infrastructure investment projects and calculated by using the value of travel time. The current feasibility study guideline (5th edition) calculate the value of non-business ravel time in a metropolitan area, using the ratio of the value of non-business travel time to business travel time calculated based on the nationwide inter-regional traffic survey data of 1999. The characteristics of metropolitan trips are different from those of nationwide regional trips. Metropolitan trips have frequent transfers between multiple public transits and long-time commuter trips. Therefore, this research aims to calculate the value of travel time reflecting traffic characteristics in a metropolitan area by improving the limitation of current calculation methods. To reflect these characteristics, this research extracts commuter trips from non-business trips and calculates the value of travel time for commuter trips. The results of the likelihood ratio test for the commuter trip model and the non-business trip model are found to be statistically significant. An integrated public transportation model was also estimated in this study to reflect the trip conditions of the Seoul metropolitan area integrated fare system. The results of comparing coefficients between bus and subway in the integrated public transit model indicated that there were no statistically significant differences between the two modes.

Factors Influencing the Level of Perceived Helpfulness of Country of Origin in Predicting the Safety of Chicken Meat (닭고기의 안전 예측에서 원산지 표시의 도움에 대한 지각도에 미치는 영향 요인 평가)

  • Kang Jong-Heon;Lee Seong-Hee
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.488-495
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    • 2006
  • The purposes of this study were to measure respondent's demographic characteristics, respondent's attitudes toward chicken meat, and factors influencing the level of perceived helpfulness of country of origin in predicting the safety of chicken. The data was collected through a consumer survey during the March 2006. Two hundred fifty meat consumers living in Suncheon, the eastern part of Chonnam, were randomly selected as respondents. Eleven respondents did not complete the survey instrument, resulting in a final sample size of 239. All estimations were carried out using correlation, logistic procedure of SAS package, and plum procedure of SPSS. The level of perceived helpfulness of country of origin in predicting the safety of chicken meat was significantly correlated with trust, antibiotics and salmonella/bacteria among the attitude variables. The proportional odds assumption of the model was violated at p<0.05. The estimated results of the multinomial logit model indicated that income, single, occupation, and education significantly affected helpful perception over not helpful perception, while gender and occupation significantly affected very helpful perception over not helpful perception in the case of the extended model. These study results from this study could be useful in developing marketing and health promotion strategies, as well as government trade policy.

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