• Title/Summary/Keyword: Mortality prediction

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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The Prognostic Value of the Seventh Day APACHE III Score in Medical Intensive Care Unit (내과계 중환자들의 예후 판정에 었어서 제 7병일 APACHE III 점수의 임상적 유용성)

  • Kim, Mi-Ok;Yun, Soo-Mi;Park, Eun-Joo;Sohn, Jang-Won;Yang, Seok-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Park, Sung-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.236-244
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    • 2001
  • Background : Most current research using prognostic scoring systems in critically ill patients have focused on prediction using the first intensive care unit (ICU) day data or daily updated data. Usually the mean ICU length of stay in Korea is longer than in the western world. Consequently, a more cost-effective and practical prognostic parameter is required. The principal aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the seventh day(7th day : the average mean ICU length of stay) APACHE III score in a medical intensive care unit. Methods : 241 medical ICU patients from July 1997 to April 1998 were enrolled. The 1st and 7th scores were measured by using the APACHE III scoring system and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ APACHE III scores and the mortality risk. Results : 1 )The mean length of stay in the ICU was $10.3{\pm}13.8$ days. 2)The mean $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores were $59.7{\pm}30.9$ and $37.9{\pm}27.7$. 3) The mean $1^{st}$ day APACHE III score was significantly lower in survivors than in non- survivors($49.9{\pm}23.8$ vs $86.3{\pm}32.3$, P<0.0001). 4)The mean $7^{th}$ day APACHE III score was significantly lower in survivors than in non- survivors($30.1{\pm}18.5$ vs $80.1{\pm}30.4$, P<0.0001). 5)The odds ratios among the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores and the mortality rate were 1.0507 and 1.0779 respectively. Conclusion : These results suggest that the seventh day APACHE III score is as useful in predicting the outcome as is such like the first day APACHE III score. Therefore, in comparison to the daily APACHE III score, measuring the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores are also useful for predicting the prognosis of critically ill patients in terms of cost-effectiveness. It is suggested that the $7^{th}$ day APACHE III score is useful for predicting the clinical outcome.

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The Clinical Outcomes of Marginal Donor Hearts: A Single Center Experience

  • Soo Yong Lee;Seok Hyun Kim;Min Ho Ju;Mi Hee Lim;Chee-hoon Lee;Hyung Gon Je;Ji Hoon Lim;Ga Yun Kim;Ji Soo Oh;Jin Hee Choi;Min Ku Chon;Sang Hyun Lee;Ki Won Hwang;Jeong Su Kim;Yong Hyun Park;June Hong Kim;Kook Jin Chun
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.254-267
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    • 2023
  • Background and Objectives: Although the shortage of donor is a common problem worldwide, a significant portion of unutilized hearts are classified as marginal donor (MD) hearts. However, research on the correlation between the MD and the prognosis of heart transplantation (HTx) is lacking. This study was conducted to investigate the clinical impact of MD in HTx. Methods: Consecutive 73 HTxs during 2014 and 2021 in a tertiary hospital were analyzed. MD was defined as follows; a donor age >55 years, left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, cold ischemic time >240 minutes, or significant cardiac structural problems. Preoperative characteristics and postoperative hemodynamic data, primary graft dysfunction (PGD), and the survival rate were analyzed. Risk stratification by Index for Mortality Prediction after Cardiac Transplantation (IMPACT) score was performed to examine the outcomes according to the recipient state. Each group was sub-divided into 2 risk groups according to the IMPACT score (low <10 vs. high ≥10). Results: A total of 32 (43.8%) patients received an organ from MDs. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was more frequent in the non-MD group (34.4% vs. 70.7, p=0.007) There was no significant difference in PGD, 30-day mortality and long-term survival between groups. In the subgroup analysis, early outcomes did not differ between low- and high-risk groups. However, the long-term survival was better in the low-risk group (p=0.01). Conclusions: The outcomes of MD group were not significantly different from non-MD group. Particularly, in low-risk recipient, the MD group showed excellent early and long-term outcomes. These results suggest the usability of selected MD hearts without increasing adverse events.

Thallium-201 Perfusion Scan in Peripheral Arterial Disease (말초성 동맥 질환에 있어서 $^{201}T1$을 이용한 말초혈관 관류스캔의 유용성)

  • Nah, Jung-Il;Woo, In-Sook;Kim, Deog-Yoon;Koh, Eun-Mi;Kim, Jin-Woo;Kim, Young-Seol;Kim, Kwang-Won;Choi, Young-Kil
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.192-199
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    • 1991
  • Peripheral arterial disease, because of it's significant and prolonged morbidity and related mortality is a major medical and surgical problem. Contrast angiogram remains the essential standard for the anatomic demonstration of disease. It does not, however, provide data suitable for quantification or any evaluation of the microcirculation. For these reasons, radionuclide studies are playing an increasingly important role by not only confirming the diagnosis and offering objective data on the physiologic significance of anatomic lesions, but by offering prognosis of healing and prediction of therapeutic results. In addition, radionuclide procedures offer means to safely and repeatedly monitor response to therapy and long term follow up. The object of this study was to evaluate the clinical availability of $^{201}T1$ perfusion scan in patients with peripheral arterial diseases. We performed $^{201}T1$ perfusion scans in patients with five Buerger' s disease (10 legs), six DM gangrenes (12 legs) and classified three perfusion pattern groups. Finally we compared treatment modalities among each groups and compaired T1-201 perfusion scan findings with angiographic findings in six patients with Buerger's disease. The results were as follows: 1) Seven legs showed increased perfusion in stress image and normal or increased perfusion in resting image (type 1). Six legs showed decreased perfusion in stress image and improved in resting image (type II). Of total 13 legs, only 1 leg needed to amputation. 2) Three legs showed decreased perfusion in stress and resting image (type III), and subsequently all cases were received surgical amputation. 3) In six Buerger's disease patients, there were disagreements in two patients (2 legs) between $^{201}T1$ scan and angiography, in which angiograms were normal but $^{201}T1$ scans showed 'type II' perfusion patterns.

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전산화 폐관류주사를 이용한 폐절제술후 폐기능의 예측

  • Oh, Duck-Jin;Lee, Young;Lim, Seung-Pyeung;Yu, Jae-Hyun;Na, Myung-Hoon
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.29 no.8
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    • pp.897-904
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    • 1996
  • A preoperative prediction of postoperative pulmonary function after the pulmonary resection should be made to prevent serious complications and postoperative mortality. There are several methods to predict postoperative lung function but the 99m7c-MAA perfusion lung scan is known as simple, inexpensive and easily tolerated method for patients. We studied the accuracy of the perfusion lung scan in predicting postoperative lung function on 34 patients who received either the resection of one lobe(17 patients) or 2 lobes(2 patients) or pneumonictomy(15 patients). We performed pulmonary function test and lung scan immediately before the operation and calculated the postoperative lung function by substracting the regional lung function which will be rejected. We compared this predictive value to the observed pulmonary function which was done 20 days after the surgery. We also compared the data achieved from 12 patients ho received open thoracotomy due to intrathoracic disease that are not confined in the lung. The correlation coefficient between the predicted value and observed value of FEVI .0 was 0.423, FVC was 0.557 in the pneumonectomy group and FEVI . 0 was 0.693, FVC was 0.591 in the lobectomy group. The correlation coefnclent between the'postoperative value and preoperative value of FEVI .0 was 0.528, FVC was 0.502 in the resectional group and FEVI .0 was 0.871, FVC was 0.896 in the comparatives. We concluded that the perfusion lung scan is accllrate in predicting post-resectional pulmonary function.

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Hunt-Hess and Fisher Grades as Predicting Factors for Chronic Hydrocephalus in Surgically Treated Ruptured Aneurysm (수술적 치료를 받은 파열성 뇌동맥류환자에서의 예후와 뇌실-복강 단락술의 예측인자로써의 Hunt-Hess Grade와 Fisher Grade)

  • Hong, Chang Ki;Park, Chong Oon;Hyun, Dong Keun;Ha, Young Soo
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.60-65
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    • 2001
  • Objective : The popular grading systems in use, such as Hunt-Hess grade and Fisher scale score, are based primarily on the patient's clinical conditions or computerized tomography score after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH). The author investigated whether the need for ventriculoperitoneal(VP) shunt for chronic hydrocephalus and outcome can be predicted by Hunt-Hess grade and Fisher scale. Methods : A series of 146 patients admitted to our hospital from August 1991 to July 1999, who presented with SAH and underwent craniotomy for aneurysm clipping were studied retrospectively. Chronic hydrocephalus was defined as clinically and radiographically demonstrated hydrocephalus that lasted 2 weeks or longer after initial hemorrhage which required shunting. Patients were evaluated based on following factors : Hunt-Hess grade, Fisher scale, age, sex, hypertension, aneurysm location, and intervals from aneurysm rupture to operation. Results : The overall mortality rate of the study group was 8.2%. Hunt-Hess grade(p=0.001) or Fisher scale (p=0.001) at all pretreatment times was significantly correlated with outcome. In addition, there was an increased risk of poor outcome in older age(65<). However, there were statistically no significant relationship between outcome and sex, location of aneurysm, hypertension, and interval from aneurysmal rupture to operation(p>0.05). Of 134 surviving patients, 16 patients(12%) underwent VP shunt placement secondary to chronic hydrocephalus. Hunt-Hess grade(p=0.001) is more predictive of chronic hydrocephalus than Fisher scale(p=0.146). Aneurysm location was significantly correlated with development of chronic hydrocephalus (p<0.05), without significant correlations in sex, age, hypertension. IVH, and ICH. Conclusion : This study suggests that there is a high clinical correlation between outcome and Hunt-Hess grades and Fisher scales on admission, but Hunt-Hess grade is more predictive for chronic hydrocephalus than Fisher scale. In addition, age(<65 yrs) is the significant factor for prediction of outcome. There was a trend of increasing risk for chronic hydrocephalus according to aneurymal location.

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Screening for the 3' UTR Polymorphism of the PXR Gene in South Indian Breast Cancer Patients and its Potential role in Pharmacogenomics

  • Revathidevi, Sundaramoorthy;Sudesh, Ravi;Vaishnavi, Varadharajan;Kaliyanasundaram, Muthukrishnan;MaryHelen, Kilyara George;Sukanya, Ganesan;Munirajan, Arasambattu Kannan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.3971-3977
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    • 2016
  • Background: Breast cancer, the commonest cancer among women in the world, ranks top in India with an incidence rate of 1,45,000 new cases and mortality rate of 70,000 women every year. Chemotherapy outcome for breast cancer is hampered due to poor response and irreversible dose-dependent cardiotoxicity which is determined by genetic variations in drug metabolizing enzymes and transporters. Pregnane X receptor (PXR), a member of the nuclear receptor superfamily, induces expression of drug metabolizing enzymes (DMEs) and transporters leading to regulation of xenobiotic metabolism. Materials and Methods: A genomic region spanning PXR 3' UTR was amplified and sequenced using genomic DNA isolated from 96 South Indian breast cancer patients. Genetic variants observed in our study subjects were queried in miRSNP to establish SNPs that alter miRNA binding sites in PXR 3' UTR. In addition, enrichment analysis was carried out to understand the network of miRNAs and PXR in drug metabolism using DIANA miRpath and miRwalk pathway prediction tools. Results: In this study, we identified SNPs rs3732359, rs3732360, rs1054190, rs1054191 and rs6438550 in the PXR 3; UTR region. The SNPs rs3732360, rs1054190 and rs1054191 were located in the binding site of miR-500a-3p, miR-532-3p and miR-374a-3p resulting in the altered PXR level due to the deregulation of post-transcriptional control and this leads to poor treatment response and toxicity. Conclusions: Genetic variants identified in PXR 3' UTR and their effects on PXR levels through post-transcriptional regulation provide a genetic basis for interindividual variability in treatment response and toxicity associated with chemotherapy.

The Usefulness of Liver Fibroscan Test Using Ultrasound Image (초음파영상을 이용한 간탄력도 검사의 유용성)

  • An, Hyun;Lee, Jin-Soo;Im, In-Chul;Yang, Sung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.205-212
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    • 2017
  • Chronic diffuse hepatopathy is one of the important clinical tasks to reduce mortality and morbidity due to liver cirrhosis, liver failure, and liver cancer. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the criteria for predicting liver and chronic liver disease using Fibroscan based on ultrasound diagnosis. Serum and liver stiffness measurement(kPa) were analyzed in 280 patients and cut-off values of liver stiffness measurement for predicting fatty liver and chronic diffuse hepatopathy were determined using ROC curve analysis. Bilirubin and PT(prothrombin time) were not related to disease prediction(p=0.243, p=0.115). Serum glucose and triglyceride levels were significantly higher in the liver (p<0.05). The cut-off value for predicting chronic diffuse hepatopathy was determined as 10.3 kPa(AUC 0.98, sensitivity 94.94%, specificity 94.93%) in the order of control group, fatty liver and chronic diffuse hepatopathy. Therefore, it will be used as a primary tool for the diagnosis of chronic liver disease patients with quantitative evaluation.

Analysis of Relationships Between Prethrombotic States and Cervical Cancer

  • Sun, You-Hong;Cui, Lin;Chen, Jue;Wang, Min;Liu, Jian-Jun;Liu, Xing-Xiang;Huang, Xin-En
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.6163-6166
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    • 2015
  • Objective: To analyze the relationship between a prethrombotic state and the occurrence of thrombosis, as well as survival time for patients with cervical cancer. Methods: Patients with first diagnosis of cervical cancer were subgrouped according to FIGO staging, and two D-dimer levels were assessed. According to the results, patients are divided into an observation group (abnormal) and control group (normal). Results: For 106 patients with cervical cancer, 38 with abnormal D-dimer, the abnormal rate is 35.9%, of which stage I accounted for 6.5%, stage II 38.5%, stage III 50%, and stage IV 61.1% (p=0.013); The level of D-dimers in stageI wass $0.87{\pm}0.68ug/ml$, while in stage II it was $1.50{\pm}1.35ug/ml$, stage III $2.60{\pm}1.86ug/ml$ and stage IV $18.6{\pm}53.4ug/ml$ (P=0.031); after follow-up of patients for 2-30 months, the mortality of observation group is 21.1%, while for control group it was 2.94% (p <0.01). In the observation group, survival time was $15.1{\pm}5.8$ months, while for control group it was $21.0{\pm}5.4$ months, the difference between two groups being highly significant (p=0.000). Conclusion: There is a direct correlation between prethrombotic state and the grade malignancy of cervical cancer. The level is positively correlated with clinical stage, and is inversely related to survival time, so that a prethrombotic state could be used to predict the prognosis for patients with cervical cancer.

Diagnosis and Prognosis of Sepsis (패혈증의 진단 및 예후예측)

  • Park, Chang-Eun
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.309-316
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    • 2021
  • Sepsis is a physiological response to a source of infection that triggers mechanisms that compromise organ function, leading to death if not treated early. Biomarkers with high sensitivity, specificity, speed, and accuracy that could differentiate sepsis from non-infectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) could bring about a revolution in sepsis treatment. Given the limitations and time required for microbial verification of pathogens, the accurate diagnosis of infection before employing antibiotic therapy is important and clinically necessary. Procalcitonin (PCT), lactate, C-reactive protein (CRP), cytokines, and proadrenomedullin (ProADM) are the common biomarkers used for diagnosis. The procalcitonin (PCT)-guided antibiotic treatment in patients with acute respiratory infections effectively reduces antibiotic exposure and side effects while improving survival rates. The evidence regarding sepsis screening in hospitalized patients is limited. Clinicians, researchers, and healthcare decision-makers should consider these findings and limitations when implementing screening tools, future research, or policy on sepsis recognition in hospitalized patients. The use of biomarkers in pediatric sepsis is promising, although such use should always be correlated with clinical evaluation. Biomarkers may also improve the prediction of mortality, especially in the early phase of sepsis, when the levels of certain pro-inflammatory cytokines and proteins are elevated.