• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.18 no.7
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• pp.781-796
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• 2009

The current standard level of Heat Health Watch Warning System consider both daily maximum temperature and daily maximum heat index(HI), but current standard could not consider daily maximum HI due to the difficulties in forecasting when we consider both daily maximum temperature and daily maximum HI and no considering HI because relative humidity could not observed for some regions. So, Newly established standard level of Heat Health Watch Warning System is based on daily maximum temperature exceeding $30^{\circ}C$ for two consecutive days or daily minimum temperature exceeding $25^{\circ}C$ and daily maximum temperature exceeding $30^{\circ}C$. These days are called "extreme heat days". On extreme heat days, the standard of extreme heat advisory is based on daily maximum temperature among exceeding $32.7^{\circ}C$ and not exceeding $34.8^{\circ}C$, and extreme heat warning is based on daily maximum temperature exceeding $34.8^{\circ}C$. ANOVA analysis was carried out using the data of Seoul Metropolitan City in 1994 to check the robustness of the new standard level of Heat Health Watch Warning System from this study, in particular for mortality variable. The results reveal that the new standard specifies excess mortality well, showing significance level of 0.05 in the difference of excess mortality for each phase.

• Journal of Aquaculture
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.129-136
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• 1991

This is a review of the studies on aquaculture and its environments in Jinhae Bay, one of the most productive areas in the south coastal waters in Korea, carried out since 1960's. It's content consists of describing the outlines of, (1) a brief history of shellfish culture development and the study of oceanic environments relating to the aquaculture, (2) the oceanographic studies on the eutrophication, red tides, and the mass mortality of shellfish due to pollution and (3) the studies on forecasting aquaculture and oceanographic conditions, and on the direction of aquacultural oceanographic studies in the near future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.27-38
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• 2020

Climate variations have become worse and diversified recently, which caused catastrophic disasters for our communities and ecosystem including economic property damages in Korea. Heat wave of summer season is one of causes for such damages of which outbreak tends to increase recently. Related short-term forecasting information has been provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration based on results from numerical forecasting model. As the study area, the ◯◯ province was selected because of the highest mortality rate in Korea for the past 15 years (1998~2012). When comparing the forecasted temperatures with field measurements, it showed RMSE of 1.57℃ and RMSE of 1.96℃ was calculated when only comparing the data corresponding to the observed value of 33℃ or higher. The forecasting process would take at least about 3~4 hours to provide the 4 hours advanced forecasting information. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for temperature prediction using LSTM considering the short prediction time and the adequate accuracy. As a result of 4 hour temperature prediction using this approach, RMSE of 1.71℃ was occurred. When comparing only the observed value of 33℃ or higher, RMSE of 1.39℃ was obtained. Even the numerical prediction model of the whole range of errors is relatively smaller, but the accuracy of prediction of the machine learning model is higher for above 33℃. In addition, it took an average of 9 minutes and 26 seconds to provide temperature information using this approach. It would be necessary to study for wider spatial range or different province with proper data set in near future.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.237-248
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• 2008

A thermal index which considers metabolic heat generation of human body is proposed for operational forecasting. The new thermal index, Perceived Temperature (PT), is forecasted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model and validated. Forecasted PT shows the characteristics of diurnal variation and topographic and latitudinal effect. Statistical skill scores such as correlation, bias, and RMSE are employed for objective verification of PT and input meteorological variables which are used for calculating PT. Verification result indicates that the accuracy of air temperature and wind forecast is higher in the initial forecast time, while relative humidity is improved as the forecast time increases. The forecasted PT during 2007 summer is lower than PT calculated by observation data. The predicted PT has a minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of $7-8^{\circ}C$ at 9-18 hour forecast. Spatial distribution of PT shows that it is overestimated in western region, while PT in middle-eastern region is underestimated due to strong wind and low temperature forecast. Underestimation of wind speed and overestimation of relative humidity have caused higher PT than observation in southern region. The predicted PT from the mesoscale model gives appropriate information as a thermal index forecast. This study suggests that forecasted PT is applicable to the prediction of health warning based on the relationship between PT and mortality.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.7
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• pp.3113-3118
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• 2012

Introduction: Cancer is the second cause of death in Kuwaiti people after cardiovascular diseases. This study is the first in the country to describe epidemiological measures related to cancer in this population. Methods: Data obtained from the Kuwait cancer registry included all Kuwaiti patients between years 2000-2009. Analyses were conducted using age-specific rates, the age-standardization-direct method, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), cumulative risk by the age of 74 years, limited-duration prevalence, mortality and forecasting to year 2029. Results: It was noted that the commonest cancer sites were colorectal with an age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 16.1/100,000 in males and breast (49.4/100,000) in the female population. The trend of cancer incidence (1974-2009) showed no statistically significant change. First causes of death due to cancer were female breast 8(6.4-9.6)/100,000 and lung (males) 8.1/100,000 (6.6-10.0). The risk of developing cancer by the age of 74 was 13.4% (1/8) and 14.3% (1/7) in males and females respectively, and the risk of dying from cancer in the same age group was 1/17 and 1/23. By the end of 2009, prevalent cases represented 0.52% of the Kuwaiti population. In the year 2029, the total number of cancer cases is expected to reach 1200 cases compared to 889 cases in 2009. Conclusions and recommendations: The most common cancers in Kuwait (breast, colorectal and lung) are largely preventable. Prompt and effective interventional prevention programs that vigorously involve diet, anti-smoking and physical activity for both sexes are urgently required.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.10
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• pp.6181-6184
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• 2013

Background: Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer in males and the fourth most frequent site in females, worldwide. This study is the first to explore the profile of lung cancer in Kuwait. Materials and Methods: Cases of primary lung cancer (Kuwaiti) in Kuwait cancer Registry (KCR) were grouped in 4 periods (10 years each) from 1970-2009. Epidemiological measures; age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), Standardized rate ratio (SRR) and Cumulative risk and Forecasting to year 2020-2029 used for analysis. Results: Between years, 2000-2009 lung cancer ranked the 4th and the 9th most frequent cancer in males and females respectively. M:F ratio 1:3. Mean age at diagnosis (95%CI) was 65.2 (63.9-66.4) years. The estimated risk of developing lung cancer before the age of 75 years in males is 1.8% (1/56), and 0.6 (1/167) in females. The ASIR for male cases was 11.7, 17.1, 17.0, 14.0 cases/100,000 population in the seventies, eighties, nineties and in 2000-2009 respectively. Female ASIR was 2.3, 8.4, 5.1, 4.4 cases/100,000 population in the same duration. Lung cancer is the leading cause cancer death in males 168 (14.2%) and the fifth cause of death due to cancer in females accounting for 6.1% of all cancer deaths. The ASMR (95%CI) was 8.1 (6.6-10.0) deaths/100,000 population and 2.8 (1.3-4.3) deaths/100,000 population in males and females respectively. The estimated Mortality to incidence Ratio was 0.6. Conclusions: The incidence of lung cancer between years 2000-2009 is not different from that reported in the seventies. KCR is expecting the number of lung cancer cases to increase.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.85-111
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• 2010

South Korea has experienced a rapid fertility decline and notable mortality improvement. As the drop in TFR was quicker and greater in terms of tempo and magnitude, it cast a new challenge of population projection - how to improve the forecasting accuracy in the country with a super-low fertility pattern. This study begin with the current status of the national population projection as implemented by Statistics Korea by comparing the 2009 interim projection with the 2006 official national population projection. Secondly, this study compare the population projection system including projection agencies, projection horizons, projection intervals, the number of projection scenarios, and the number of assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration among super-low fertility countries. Thirdly we illustrate a stochastic population projection for Korea by transforming the population rates into one parameter series. Finally we describe the future challenges of the national population projection, and propose the projection scenarios for the 2011 official population projection. To enhance the accuracy, we suggest that Statistics Korea should update population projections more frequently or distinguish them into short-term and long-term projections. Adding more than four projection scenarios including additional types of "low-variant"fertility could show a variety of future changes. We also expect Statistics Korea topay more attention to the determination of a base population that should include both national and non-national populations. Finally we hope that Statistics Korea will find a wise way to incorporate the ideas underlying the system of stochastic population projection as part of the official national population projection.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.71-96
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• 2009

This paper examined the accuracy of the national population projections for the Republic of Korea produced from the 1980s to the early 2000s. Specifically, this study assessed the forecast accuracy of the Total Fertility Rate and life expectancy at birth as well as total and age-group populations. Overall, the data indicated no significant improvement in forecasting total populations. The largest forecast errors were for the young and the elderly, while projections of the working age population were comparatively accurate. The past population projections consistently over-estimated TFR but under-estimated life expectancy at birth. This study also showed that forecast errors in fertility were substantially larger than those in mortality, indicating that behaviorally determined factors are difficult to forecast.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.58 no.4
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• pp.347-354
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• 2019

Temperature-dependent traits of Laodelphax striatellus, rice stripe virus vector, were investigated at 10 constant temperatures (12.5, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, and 35.0 ± 1℃) under a fixed photoperiod (14/10-hr light/dark cycle). Unit functions for the oviposition model were estimated and implemented into a population dynamics model using DYMEX. The longevity of L. striatellus adults decreased with increasing temperature (56.0 days at 15.0℃ and 17.7 days at 35.0℃). The highest total fecundity (515.9 eggs/female) was observed at 22.5℃, while the lowest (18.6 eggs/female) was observed at 35.0℃. Adult developmental rates, temperature-dependent fecundity, age-specific mortality rates, and age-specific cumulative oviposition rates were estimated. All unit equations described adult performances of L. striatellus accurately (r² =0.94~0.97). After inoculating adults, the constructed model was tested under pot and field conditions using the rice-plant hopper system. The model output and observed data were similar up to 30 days after inoculation; however, there were large discrepancies between observed and estimated population density after 30 days, especially for 1^st and 2^nd instar nymph densities. Model estimates were one or two nymphal stages faster than was observed. Further refinement of the model created in this study could provide realistic forecasting of this important rice pest.

• Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.305-310
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• 2014

Ascidian soft tunic syndrome (AsSTS) caused by Azumiobodo hoyamushi (A. hoyamushi) is a serious aquaculture problem that results in mass mortality of ascidians. Accordingly, the early and accurate detection of A. hoyamushi would contribute substantially to disease management and prevention of transmission. Recently, the loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) method was adopted for clinical diagnosis of a range of infectious diseases. Here, the authors describe a rapid and efficient LAMP-based method targeting the 18S rDNA gene for detection of A. hoyamushi using ascidian DNA for the diagnosis of AsSTS. A. hoyamushi LAMP assay amplified the DNA of 0.01 parasites per reaction and detected A. hoyamushi in 10 ng of ascidian DNA. To validate A. hoyamushi 18S rDNA LAMP assays, AsSTS-suspected and non-diseased ascidians were examined by microscopy, PCR, and by using the LAMP assay. When PCR was used as a gold standard, the LAMP assay showed good agreement in terms of sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). In the present study, a LAMP assay based on directly heat-treated samples was found to be as efficient as DNA extraction using a commercial kit for detecting A. hoyamushi. Taken together, this study shows the devised A. hoyamushi LAMP assay could be used to diagnose AsSTS in a straightforward, sensitive, and specific manner, that it could be used for forecasting, surveillance, and quarantine of AsSTS.