• 제목/요약/키워드: Monthly performance simulation

검색결과 44건 처리시간 0.023초

입자 필터를 이용한 월 물 수지 모형의 시간변화 매개변수 추정: 하천유량 자료의 동화 (Estimating time-varying parameters for monthly water balance model using particle filter: assimilation of stream flow data)

  • 최정현;김상단
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제54권6호
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    • pp.365-379
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    • 2021
  • 수문 모형 매개변수는 모형 모의에 필수적이며, 지형, 기후조건, 기후변화와 인간 활동으로 인해 시간에 따라 달라질 수 있다. 결과적으로 고정된 매개변수의 사용은 부정확한 하천유량 모의로 이어질 수 있다. 본 연구의 목표는 하천유량 관측자료를 이용하여 시간에 따라 변하는 매개변수를 추정하는 방법을 살펴보고, 하천유량 자료가 모형에 동화될 때 모의 효율성이 어떻게 변하는지 분석하는 것이다. 자료 동화 방법은 변화하는 다양한 환경에 적응하여 수문 모형의 매개변수를 자동으로 추정하기 위하여 사용될 수 있다. 입자 필터를 이용하여 하천유량 관측치를 2개 매개변수 월 물 수지 모형에 동화했다. 자료 동화 방법으로 시간변화 매개변수를 사용한 모의 결과는 SCEM 방법으로 고정 매개변수를 사용한 모의 결과와 비교되었다. 먼저 다양한 시나리오에 기반한 합성 실험을 수행하여 입자 필터 방법이 시간에 따라 변화하는 매개변수를 적절하게 추적할 수 있는지를 살펴보았다. 이후 실제 유역에 적용하여 시간에 따라 변화하는 매개변수와 고정된 매개변수를 사용하였을 때의 하천유량 예측성능과 비교하였다. 본 연구를 통해 얻은 결론은 다음과 같다. (1) 전체적인 월 하천유량 시계열의 예측성능은 입자 필터 방법과 SCEM 방법이 서로 비슷하였다. (2) 우기를 제외한 시기의 월 유출고 예측성능은 자료 동화 방법을 이용한 주기적으로 변화하는 매개변수에 의한 모의가 더 우수하였다. (3) 동화에 사용되는 하천유량 관측자료의 불확실성은 입자 필터의 하천유량 예측성능에 중요한 역할을 하였다.

인공 신경망 모형을 활용한 저수지 군의 연계운영 기준 수립 (Development of Operating Guidelines of a Multi-reservoir System Using an Artificial Neural Network Model)

  • 나미숙;김재희;김승권
    • 산업공학
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.311-318
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    • 2010
  • In the daily multi-reservoir operating problem, monthly storage targets can be used as principal operational guidelines. In this study, we tested the use of a simple back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to derive monthly storage guideline for daily Coordinated Multi-reservoir Operating Model (CoMOM) of the Han-River basin. This approach is based on the belief that the optimum solution of the daily CoMOM has a good performance, and the ANN model trained with the results of daily CoMOM would produce effective monthly operating guidelines. The optimum results of daily CoMOM is used as the training set for the back-propagation ANN model, which is designed to derive monthly reservoir storage targets in the basin. For the input patterns of the ANN model, we adopted the ratios of initial storage of each dam to the storage of Paldang dam, ratios of monthly expected inflow of each dam to the total inflow of the whole basin, ratios of monthly demand at each dam to the total demand of the whole basin, ratio of total storage of the whole basin to the active storage of Paldang dam, and the ratio of total inflow of the whole basin to the active storage of the whole basin. And the output pattern of ANN model is the optimal final storages that are generated by the daily CoMOM. Then, we analyzed the performance of the ANN model by using a real-time simulation procedure for the multi-reservoir system of the Han-river basin, assuming that historical inflows from October 1st, 2004 to June 30th, 2007 (except July, August, September) were occurred. The simulation results showed that by utilizing the monthly storage target provided by the ANN model, we could reduce the spillages, increase hydropower generation, and secure more water at the end of the planning horizon compared to the historical records.

태양열주택의 난방성능에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Thermal Performance of a Solar House by a Computer Simulation)

  • 이상천
    • 대한설비공학회지:설비저널
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.64-72
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    • 1978
  • The determination of solar collector area requires a thermal simulation to evaluate the performance of a solar house. This study comprises a simulation of system performance including a solar house, flat-plate collectors, a water type storage tank and an auxiliary heater. Developing the steady state performance equations of each equipment, and using the actual monthly average weather data for several recent years, this study evaluates the hourly performance of a solar house model. As a result, it is shown that the desirable collector area in Seoul is 1.4-1.6 times larger than the heating area in the case of non-selective surface, 0.8-1.0 times in the case of selective surface.

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업무용 건물의 지열 히트펌프 시스템에 대한 성능 예측 (Performance Prediction on the Application of a Ground-Source Heat Pump(GSHP) System in an Office Building)

  • 손병후;권한솔
    • 설비공학논문집
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    • 제26권9호
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    • pp.409-415
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    • 2014
  • Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems have become an efficient alternative to conventional cooling and heating methods due to their higher energy efficiency. These systems use the ground as a heat source and the heat sink for cooling mode operation. The purpose of this simulation study is to evaluate the performance of a hypothetical GSHP system in an office building and to assess the energy saving effect against the existing HVAC systems (boiler and turbo chiller). We collected monthly energy consumption data from an actual office building ($32,488m^2$) in Seoul, and created a model to calculate the hourly building loads with EnergyPlus. In addition, we used GLD (Ground Loop Design) V8.0, a GSHP system design and simulation software tool, to evaluate hourly and monthly performance of the GSHP system. The energy consumption for the GSHP system based on the hourly simulation results were estimated to be 582.6 MWh/year for cooling and 593.2 MWh/year for heating, while those for the existing HVAC systems were found to be 674.5 MWh/year and 2,496.4 MWh/year, respectively. The seasonal performance factor (SPF) of the GSHP system was also calculated to be in the range of 3.37~4.28.

융설을 고려한 물수지 모형을 이용한 소양강 댐 상류 유역의 월 유출량 산정 (Simulation of Monthly Streamflow for the Soyang Basin Using Water And Snow balance MODeling System)

  • 김병식;장대원;서병하;김형수
    • 한국습지학회지
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 융설을 고려할 수 있는 물수지 모형인 WASMOD(Water And Snow MODeling system)에 대하여 기술하였으며, 소양강댐 상류유역에 적용하여 장기 월 유출량을 산정하였다. WASMOD의 장점은 입력자료의 구축이 간단하며 사용자가 쉽게 운영할 수 있다는 점이다. 모형의 매개변수를 최적화하기 위해 자동추적법인 VA05A를 이용하였으며, 관측 월 유출 수문곡선과 모의 월 수문곡선을 비교하였다. 관측 유출량과 계산 유출량간의 상관계수가 0.89이상으로, 이를 통해 WASMOD의 국내 유역에 적용가능성을 확인할 수 있었다.

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단독주택 적용 지열 히트펌프 시스템의 성능 분석 (Performance Simulation of Ground-Coupled Heat Pump(GCHP) System for a Detached House)

  • 손병후;최종민;최항석
    • 설비공학논문집
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.392-399
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    • 2011
  • Ground-coupled heat pump(GCHP) systems have been shown to be an environmentally-friendly, efficient alternative to traditional cooling and heating systems in both residential and commercial applications. Although some work related to performance evaluation of GCHP systems for commercial buildings has been done, relatively little has been reported on the residential applications. The aim of this study is to evaluate the cooling and heating performances of a vertical GCHP system applied to an artificial detached house($117\;m^2$) in Seoul. For this purpose, a typical design procedure was involved with a combination of design parameters such as building loads, heat pump capacity, borehole diameter, and ground thermal properties, etc. The cooling and heating performance simulation of the system was conducted with different prediction times of 8760 hours and 240 months. The performance characteristics including seasonal system COP, average annual power consumption, and temperature variations related to ground heat exchanger were calculated and compared.

평판형 태양열 집열기의 연중 열적 성능의 모델링 해석 (Modeling Analysis for Thermal Performance of Solar Flat Plate Collector System Through a Year)

  • 김규덕;박배덕;김경훈
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.541-549
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    • 2014
  • The monthly-average meteorological data, in particular, the monthly average daily terrestrial horizontal insolation are required for designing solar thermal energy systems. In this paper, the dynamic thermal performance of a flat plate solar collector system is numerically investigated through a year from the monthly average insolation data in Seoul. For a specified data set of solar collector system, the dynamic behaviors of total solar radiation on the tilted collector surfaces, heat loss from the collector system, useful energy and collector efficiency are analyzed from January to December by a mathematical simulation model. In addition, the monthly average daily total solar radiation, useful energy, and daily collector efficiencies through a year are estimated. The simulated results show that the average total radiation is highest in March and the useful energy is highest in October, while the total radiation and the collector efficiency are lowest in July.

시뮬레이션에 의한 태양열 난방의 최적설계에 관한 연구 (The Analysis of Optimum Design Parameters for a Solar Space Heating System through Computer Simulation)

  • 서정일;이영수
    • 대한설비공학회지:설비저널
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 1985
  • This paper presents a method for estimating the useful output of solar space heating system and estimates their performance with variance of collector size, storage volume, collector tilt and other factors . The analysis is performed by the computer simulation and by 'running' conceptual systems against solar intensities and ambient temperature for a model year stored in a computer. System performance is analyzed on monthly and yearly basis respectively and at the same time, the economics of various systems are evaluated . And also, this paper shows how an optimized design can be selected for any locality for which solar data, economic parameters and system performance are provided. It is shown that storage volume of 75 liter per $m^2$ of solar collector lead to the best design.

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경기북부지역 정밀 수치기후도 제작 및 활용 - II. 콩 생육모형 결합에 의한 재배적지 탐색 (Development and Use of Digital Climate Models in Northern Gyunggi Province - II. Site-specific Performance Evaluation of Soybean Cultivars by DCM-based Growth Simulation)

  • 김성기;박중수;이영수;서희철;김광수;윤진일
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2004
  • A long-term growth simulation was performed at 99 land units in Yeoncheon county to test the potential adaptability of each land unit for growing soybean cultivars. The land units for soybean cultivation(CZU), each represented by a geographically referenced land patch, were selected based on land use, soil characteristics, and minimum arable land area. Monthly climatic normals for daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, number of rain days and solar radiation were extracted for each CZU from digital climate models(DCM). The DCM grid cells falling within a same CZU were aggregated to make spatially explicit climatic normals relevant to the CZU. A daily weather dataset for 30 years was randomly generated from the monthly climatic normals of each CZU. Growth and development parameters of CROPGRO-soybean model suitable for 2 domestic soybean cultivars were derived from long-term field observations. Three foreign cultivars with well established parameters were also added to this study, representing maturity groups 3, 4, and 5. Each treatment was simulated with the randomly generated 30 years' daily weather data(from planting to physiological maturity) for 99 land units in Yeoncheon to simulate the growth and yield responses to the inter-annual climate variation. The same model was run with input data from the Crop Experiment Station in Suwon to obtain a 30 year normal performance of each cultivar, which was used as a "reference" for evaluation. Results were analyzed with respect to spatial and temporal variation in yield and maturity, and used to evaluate the suitability of each land unit for growing a specific cultivar. A computer program(MAPSOY) was written to help utilize the results in a decision-making procedure for agrotechnology transfer. transfer.

태양광 발전 시스템의 시공간적 잠재성 평가 소프트웨어 개발 (Assessment of Distributed and Dynamic Potential of Photovoltaic Systems in Urban Areas)

  • 최요순
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2011년도 추계학술대회 초록집
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    • pp.59.2-59.2
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    • 2011
  • This study presents a new method for coupling ArcGIS (popular GIS software) with TRaNsient SYstems Simulation (TRNSYS, reference software for researchers and engineers around the world) to use capabilities of the 4 and 5-parameter PV array performance models within the ArcGIS environment. Using the validated and industry-proven solar energy simulation models implemented in TRNSYS and other built-in ArcGIS functionalities, dynamic characteristics of distributed PV potential in terms of hourly, daily or monthly power outputs can be investigated with considerations of diverse options in selecting and mounting PV panels. In addition, the proposed method allows users to complete entire procedures in a single framework (i.e., a preliminary site survey using 3D building models, shading analyses to investigate usable rooftop areas with considerations of different sizes and shapes of buildings, dynamic energy simulation to examine the performances of various PV systems, visualization of the simulation results to understand spatially and temporally distributed patterns of PV potential). Therefore tedious tasks for data conversion among multiple softwares can be significantly reduced or eliminated. While the programming environment of TRNSYS is proprietary, the redistributable executable, simulation kernel and simulation engine of TRNSYS can be freely distributed to end-users. Therefore, GIS users who do not have a license of TRNSYS can also use the functionalities of solar energy simulation models within ArcGIS.

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