• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte-carlo Simulation

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An Analysis of the Efficiency of Agricultural Business Corporations Using the Stochastic DEA Model (농업생산법인의 경영효율성 분석: 부트스트래핑 기법 활용)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Kim, Chung-Sil;Kwon, Kyung-Sup
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.137-152
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate efficiency of agricultural business corporations using Data Envelopment Analysis. A proposed method employs a bootstrapping approach to generate efficiency estimates through Monte Carlo simulation re-sampling process. The technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency measure of the corporations is 0.749 0.790, 0.948 respectively. Among the 692 agricultural business corporations, the number of Increasing Returns to Scale (IRS)-type corporations was analyzed to be 539(77.9%). The number of Constant Returns to Scale (CRS)-type corporations was 108(15.6%), and that of Decreasing Returns to Scale (DRS)-type corporations was 45(6.5%). Since an increase in input is lower than an increase in output in IRS, an increase in input factors such as new investments is required. The Tobit model suggests that the type of corporation, capital level, and period of operation affect the efficiency score more than others. The positive coefficient of capital level and period of operation variable indicates that efficiency score increases as capital level and period of operation increases.

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The signal property and structure design of CsI:Na/a-Se for diagnostic x-ray imaging (진단 X선 영상을 위한 CsI:Na/a-Se 구조설계 및 신호특성)

  • Park, Ji-Koon;Heo, Ye-Ji;Park, Jeong-Eun;Park, Sang-Jin;Kim, Hyun-Hee;No, Ci-Chul;Kang, Sang-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.35-38
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    • 2009
  • Flat-panel x-ray detectors using a phosphor and photoconductor material have been used for application in various medical modalities. In this study, the monte carlo simulation, optical and x-ray response characteristics were investigated in the conversion structure obtained by a columnar CsI:Na scintillation layer with a photosensitive amorphous selenium layer. Firstly, from the measurement of luminescent spectrum of CsI:Na and absorption spectrum of a-Se layer, the signal conversion characteristics are analysed. And also, the x-ray sensitivity is measured and compared with conventional a-Se($500{\mu}m$) as a function of electrical field. From the experimental result, the x-ray sensitivities of the CsI:Na($180{\mu}m$)/a-Se($30{\mu}m$) detector and the a-Se($500{\mu}m$) detector were $7.31nC/mR-cm^{2}$ and $3.95nC/mR-cm^{2}$at an electric field of $10V/{\mu}m$, respectively.

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Probabilistic Optimization for Improving Soft Marine Ground using a Low Replacement Ratio (해상 연약지반의 저치환율 개량에 대한 확률론적 최적화)

  • Han, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Hong-Yeon;Yea, Geu-Guwen
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.485-495
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    • 2016
  • To reinforce and improve the soft ground under a breakwater while using materials efficiently, the replacement ratio and leaving periods of surcharge load are optimized probabilistically. The results of Bayesian updating of the random variables using prior information decrease uncertainty by up to 39.8%, and using prior information with more samples results in a sharp decrease in uncertainty. Replacement ratios of 15%-40% are analyzed using First Order Reliability Method and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the replacement ratio. The results show that replacement ratios of 20% and 25% are acceptable at the column jet grouting area and the granular compaction pile area, respectively. Life cycle costs are also compared to optimize the replacement ratios within allowable ranges. The results show that a range of 20%-30% is the most economical during the total life cycle. This means that initial construction cost, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are minimized during total life cycle. Probabilistic analysis for leaving periods of shows that three months acceptable. Design optimization with respect to life cycle cost is important to minimize maintenance costs and retain the performance of the structures for the required period. Therefore, more case studies that consider the maintenance costs of soil structures are necessary to establish relevant design codes.

Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Different Management Strategies between Best Supportive Care and Second-line Chemotherapy for Platinum-resistant or Refractory Ovarian Cancer

  • Luealon, Phanida;Khempech, Nipon;Vasuratna, Apichai;Hanvoravongchai, Piya;Havanond, Piyalamporn
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.799-805
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    • 2016
  • Background: There is no standard treatment for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Single agent chemotherapies have evidence of more efficacy and less toxicity than combination therapy. Most are very expensive, with appreciable toxicity and minimal survival. Since it is difficult to make comparison between outcomes, economic analysis of single-agent chemotherapy regimens and best supportive care may help to make decisions about an appropriate management for the affected patients. Objective: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of second-line chemotherapy compared with best supportive care for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: A Markov model was used to estimate the effectiveness and total costs associated with treatments. The hypothetical patient population comprised women aged 55 with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Four types of alternative treatment options were evaluated: 1) gemcitabine followed by BSC; 2) pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) followed by BSC; 3) gemcitabine followed by topotecan; and 4) PLD followed by topotecan. Baseline comparator of alternative treatments was BSC. Time horizon of the analysis was 2 years. Health care provider perspective and 3% discount rate were used to determine the costs of medical treatment in this study. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were used to measure the treatment effectiveness. Treatment effectiveness data were derived from the literature. Costs were calculated from unit cost treatment of epithelial ovarian cancer patients at various stages of disease in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital (KCMH) in the year 2011. Parameter uncertainty was tested in probabilistic sensitivity analysis by using Monte Carlo simulation. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore each variable's impact on the uncertainty of the results. Results: Approximated life expectancy of best supportive care was 0.182 years and its total cost was 26,862 Baht. All four alternative treatments increased life expectancy. Life expectancy of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 0.510, 0.513, 0.566, and 0.570 years, respectively. The total cost of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 113,000, 124,302, 139,788 and 151,135 Baht, respectively. PLD followed by topotecan had the highest expected quality-adjusted life-years but was the most expensive of all the above strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 344,643, 385,322, 385,856, and 420,299 Baht, respectively. Conclusions: All of the second-line chemotherapy strategies showed certain benefits due to an increased life-year gained compared with best supportive care. Moreover, gemcitabine as second-line chemotherapy followed by best supportive care in progressive disease case was likely to be more effective strategy with less cost from health care provider perspective. Gemcitabine was the most cost-effective treatment among all four alternative treatments. ICER is only an economic factor. Treatment decisions should be based on the patient benefit.

Evaluation of Image Quality using Monte Carlo Simulation in Digital Mammography System (디지털유방영상시스템에서 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 영상평가)

  • Kim, Changsoo;Kang, Se-Sik;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Lee, Jin-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2014
  • For the purpose of early diagnosis of the breast cancer, the attention on the screening mammography has been increasing-with supply of digital mammography day by day. Image quality is decided by target materials and filter combinations. Optimized selection by a glandular density and a thickness is needed, because these combinations change x-ray spectrum and effect to image quality. The purpose of this study is to find out optimized target and filter combinations through the evaluation of quantitative image quality and to suggest means which minimize patient dose through MCNPX. In results, spatial frequency resolution evaluation which is quantitative image quality evaluation method, MTF, NPS, DQE shows that we have to select Mo/Mo combinations or Mo/Rh combinations when compressed breast is thin. but in case of that when compressed breast is thick, we have to select Rh/Rh combinations or W /Rh combinations. In a comprehensive evaluation, W!Rh combinations which are not used in thin breasts in practice was superior to all image quality evaluation. This result is somewhat different-with clinical examination results. Secondary end point was organ dose evaluation, radiation dose of opposite breast was approximately 47 ~73% effectiveness when selecting standard breast. In conculsion, the most important point is that we have to select the optimal combinations-with considering dose evaluation and various thickness.

OVI EMISSION LINE DETECTION LIMIT OF FAR-ULTAVIOLET IMAGING SPECTROGRAPH (과학위성 1호 탑재체 원자외선 분광기의 OVI 방출선 검출 한계)

  • 선광일;유광선;육인수;박장현;남욱원;한원용;선종호;민경옥
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2000
  • There have been a few attempts to measure diffuse line emission between 900 $\AA$ and 1200 $\AA$, and only in a limited number of sight lines has it been detected. The main contributions to the equilibrium radiative cooling curve between $10^{4.5}K\;to\;10^6K$ are from the doublet of Ovi ${lambda}{lambda}1032;and;{lambda}{lambda}1038$ in the FUV spectral region. There are several bright airglow lines which could interfere with attempts to observe the OVI lines. The nearest lines HI 1025 $\AA$, OI 1027 $\AA$ have a combined intensity of about $10^{5.5}$ photons/s/$cm^2$/sr. In the present study, the detectability simulation of OVI doublet is performed using a Monte-Carlo technique and chi-square statistics. The analysis results are compared with the previous observations and with the predictions of several interstellar medium models, and are used to limit manufacturing and alignment errors of FIMS optical system.

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Financial Feasibility Study by Considering Risk Factors for High-Rise Development Project (초고층 개발사업의 리스크 요인을 고려한 재무적 타당성 분석)

  • Chun, Young-Jun;Cho, Joo-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.3-16
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    • 2017
  • Forecasting cash flow is very important but is difficult and complicated to analysis in high-rise development projects. And An expected value which was forecasted on the early stage is likely to fluctuate due to uncertainties around such complicated huge project to consider the probable uncertainty. There are not objectified method which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected financial analysis does not include liquidity of cash flow. Through such a stochastic method, developer can cope with cash flow fluctuation and set up a financial plan. Also this study is meaningful for laying the foundation for high-rise development project and feasibility study as well as the suitability and accuracy of feasibility study. Analysis showed that NPV and IRR include residential apartments shows surplus revenue as return of apartments offset deficit of hotel and office. Factors influencing the project feasibility for high-rise development project are sales account of $1^{st}$ year and annual vacancy rate of office.

Assessment of health risk associated with arsenic exposure from soil, groundwater, polished rice for setting target cleanup level nearby abandoned mines

  • Lee, Ji-Ho;Kim, Won-Il;Jeong, Eun-Jung;Yoo, Ji-Hyock;Kim, Ji-Young;Lee, Je-Bong;Im, Geon-Jae;Hong, Moo-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2011
  • This study focused on health risk assessment via multi-routes of As exposure to establish a target cleanup level (TCL) in abandoned mines. Soil, ground water, and rice samples were collected near ten abandoned mines in November 2009. The As contaminations measured in all samples were used for determining the probabilistic health risk by Monte-Carlo simulation techniques. The human exposure to As compound was attributed to ground water ingestion. Cancer risk probability (R) via ground water and rice intake exceeded the acceptable risk range of $10^{-6}{\sim}10^{-4}$ in all selected mines. In particular, the MB mine showed the higher R value than other mines. The non-carcinogenic effects, estimated by comparing the average As exposure with corresponding reference dose were determined by hazard quotient (HQ) values, which were less than 1.0 via ground water and rice intake in SD, NS, and MB mines. This implied that the non-carcinogenic toxic effects, due to this exposure pathway had a greater possibility to occur than those in other mines. Besides, hazard index (HI) values, representing overall toxic effects by summed the HQ values were also greater than 1.0 in SD, NS, JA, and IA mines. This revealed that non-carcinogenic toxic effects were generally occurred. The As contaminants in all selected mines exceeded the TCL values for target cancer risk ($10^{-6}$) through ground water ingestion and rice intake. However, the As level in soil was greater than TCL value for target cancer risk via inadvertent soil ingestion pathway, except for KK mine. In TCL values for target hazard quotient (THQ), the As contaminants in soil did not exceed such TCL value. On the contrary, the As levels in ground water and polished rice in SD, NS, IA, and MB mines were also beyond the TCL values via ground water and rice intake. This study concluded that the health risks through ground water and rice intake were greater than those though soil inadvertent ingestion and dermal contact. In addition, it suggests that the abandoned mines to exceed the risk-based TCL values are carefully necessary to monitor for soil remediation.

Evaluation on Organ Dose and Image Quality by Changing kVp and Ion Chamber Combination while Taking Digital Chest Lateral Decubitus PA Projection (디지털 흉부 측와위 후전방향 검사 시 Ion chamber조합 설정과 관전압 변화에 따른 장기선량 및 화질 평가)

  • Lee, Jin-Soo;Park, Hyong-Hu
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.316-323
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we analyzed radiation dose and MTF with setting of Ion chamber and changing kVp so that we are able to suggest acquiring optimized diagnostic images and minimizing patient dose. we assumed right lateral decubitus position among chest decubitus projection and set 7 combination of Ion chamber. By changing kVp(100, 110, 120, 130kVp), we exposed x-ray five times respectively and calculated average value after measuring entrance dose. we input the entrance dose value to PCXMC Monte carlo simulation tool and calculated organ dose and effective dose. Then we did physical image evaluation with MTF for the purpose to compare image quality. As a result, the high kVp, entrance dose is reduced. As change of ion chamber, when selecting second ion chamber, both organ dose and effective dose were the lowest. In contrast, selecting first ion chamber was the highest. MTF is superior to set second Ion chamber and using 120 kVp. Consequently, when taking chest right lateral decubitus using Digital radiography, the optimized combination which have both reducing dose efficiently without declining image quality and aquring good qualified image is set 120 kVp and selecting second Ion chamber.

Chamber to Chamber Variations of a Cylindrical Ionization Chamber for the Calibration of an $^{192}Ir$ Brachytherapy Source Based on an Absorbed Dose to Water Standards (물흡수선량 표준에 기반한 $^{192}Ir$ 근접치료 선원 교정 시 원통형 이온함의 이온함 간 변화)

  • Kim, Seong-Hoon;Huh, Hyun-Do;Choi, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Chan-Hyeong;Min, Chul-Hee;Shin, Dong-Oh;Choi, Jin-Ho
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2009
  • This work is for the preliminary study for the calibration of an $^{192}Ir$ brachytherapy source based on an absorbed dose to water standards. In order to calibrate brachytherapy sources based on absorbed dose to water standards using a clyndirical ionization chamber, the beam quality correction factor $k_{Q,Q_0}$ is needed. In this study $k_{Q,Q_0}s$ were determined by both Monte carlo simulation and semiexperimental methods because of the realistic difficulties to use primary standards to measure an absolute dose at a specified distance. The 5 different serial numbers of the PTW30013 chamber type were selected for this study. While chamber to chamber variations ran up to maximum 4.0% with the generic $k^{gen}_{Q,Q_0}$, the chamber to chamber variations were within a maximum deviation of 0.5% with the individual $k^{ind}_{Q,Q_0}$. The results show why and how important ionization chambers must be calibrated individually for the calibration of $^{192}Ir$ brachytherapy sources based on absorbed dose to water standards. We hope that in the near future users will be able to calibrate the brachytherapy sources in terms of an absorbed dose to water, the quantity of interest in the treatment, instead of an air kerma strength just as the calibration in the high energy photon and electron beam.

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