• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte-Carlo 기법

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A Study for the Estimation of Joint Diameter Distribution Using the Trace Length Distribution from Cylindrical Window Survey (원통형조사창에서의 절리선 길이분포를 이용한 암반 내 절리직경분포 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Ki-Hwan;Song, Jae-Joon;Jo, Young-Do
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.386-393
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    • 2011
  • This study suggests an algorithm for estimating joint diameter distribution in rock mass from the joint trace length distribution around a circular tunnel. For estimating the joint diameter distribution, the concept of Joint Center Volume (JCV) suggested by Song. (2005) was applied and the calculation method of JCV for the cylindrical window survey was developed by using the complete survey method. The estimated joint diameter distribution was verified against the original joint diameter distribution by Monte-Carlo simulation. It was observed that the estimated joint diameter distribution was converged to the original joint diameter distribution with less than 20% of error.

Development of Flood Inundation Map by Applying Probabilistic Estimation Method of Levee Breach Outflow (제방붕괴유출량의 확률론적 산정기법을 적용한 홍수범람도 개발)

  • Nam, Myeong Jun;Lee, Jae Young;Lee, Chang Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.377-377
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    • 2020
  • 이상기후변화에 따른 홍수피해는 매년 빈번히 발생하고 있고, 이러한 피해에 대비하여 예측 및 대응방안을 신속히 확보할 수 있는 재난예측 및 대응시스템은 필수로 요구되는 실정이다. 강우의 의한 홍수발생과 하천수위 급상승에 의한 제방의 월류 및 파제 메커니즘은 상당히 복잡하고 유동적이며 다양한 불확실성을 포함한다. 본 연구에서는 극치 강수량의 매개변수들의 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 수행된 비정상성 빈도해석 기반의 수문시나리오를 바탕으로 산정된 MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation)기반 확률홍수위를 산정하였고, 이를 활용하여 2차원 제내지 침수해석의 경계조건으로 활용하여 홍수위 변동에 의한 하천 제방 붕괴 변동폭의 범위를 설정하고, 그에 따른 제방붕괴 유출량의 변동 범위를 산정하였다. 또한 확률론적 파제 유입량에 의한 제내지의 침수심과 침수범위를 MCS기반의 2차원 제내지 침수해석을 통해 정량화하여 확률침수심도를 작성하였다. 이러한 홍수발생의 전반적인 메커니즘을 고려하여 매개변수들의 불확실도를 정량적으로 평가함으로써 기존의 결정론적 해석기법보다 신뢰성 있는 침수심 예측결과를 확보하였다.

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An application of risk assessment method for coastal dike failure mechanisms due to erosion (방조제 침식에 의한 복합 매커니즘을 고려한 위험도 평가 기법)

  • Jung, Min-Kyu;Lee, Baeg;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.292-292
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    • 2020
  • 방조제는 국토 확장, 수자원 확보 및 배수 개선에 사용되는 구조물로, 재난 발생 시 자산, 국가산업 및 환경에 큰 영향을 끼칠 위험이 있다. 따라서, 파도월류, 지진, 투수, 액상화와 같은 다양한 피해 원인에 대비하여 구조적 사용성과 안정성을 확보하기 위해 신중한 검토 및 분석이 수행된다. 그러나 변화하는 환경조건에서 방조제는 다양한 외력의 변동성과 불확실성에 노출되며, 설계 시 고려된 손상 요인이 개별적으로 발생하기보다는 여러 요인이 복합적으로 반응하고 그 영향이 전달되어 피해의 발생과 전파 과정이 복잡한 양상을 나타낸다. 따라서 방조제에 대한 사고 예방 및 안정적인 유지관리를 위해서는 발생 가능한 위험을 종합적으로 고려한 위험도 평가가 중요하게 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 방조제 손상 원인 중 큰 비중을 차지하는 제체 내부 침식 위험에 대하여 위험인자 간 상호작용을 고려할 수 있는 확률통계학적 접근으로 Bayesian network 기법을 도입하였다. 위험인자에 대한 파괴 메커니즘을 조사하여 분류 후, 설계값과 측정자료를 기반으로 위험변수의 통계적 특성을 반영하기 위해 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 수행하여 파괴 매커니즘의 위험도를 계산하였다. 위험도는 연간기대피해액으로 제공되었으며, 이는 방조제 손상으로 인한 피해에 대비하여 예방할 수 있는 솔루션을 제공할 것으로 기대된다.

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Two-dimensional Inundation Analysis Using Stochastic Rainfall Variation and Geographic Information System (추계학적 강우변동생성 기법과 GIS를 연계한 2차원 침수해석)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Cho, Wan-Hee;Han, Kun-Yeun;Ahn, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 2010
  • Recently actual rainfall pattern is decreasing rainy days and increasing in rainfall intensity and the frequency of flood occurrence is also increased. To consider recent situation, Engineers use deterministic methods like a PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation). If design storm wouldn't occur, increasing of design criteria is extravagant. In addition, the biggest structure cause trouble with residents and environmental problem. And then it is necessary to study considering probability of rainfall parameter in each sub-basin for design of water structure. In this study, stochastic rainfall patterns are generated by using log-ratio method, Johnson system and multivariate Monte Carlo simulation. Using the stochastic rainfall patterns, hydrological analysis, hydraulic analysis and 2nd flooding analysis were performed based on GIS for their applicability. The results of simulations are similar to the actual damage area so the methodology of this study should be used about making a flood risk map or regidental shunting rout map against the region.

A Monte Carlo Study of Dose Enhancement with kilovoltage and megavoltage photons (몬테칼로 기법을 이용한 kV, MV X선에서의 선량증가 효과 비교 평가)

  • Hwang, ChulHwan;Im, In-Chul;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2017
  • Monte Carlo simulations were used to assess dose enhancement effects for 60-, 90-, 120-, and 150-kV X-rays, and for 6- and 15-MV X-rays. The MCNPX code was used for a computer simulation of the ICRU slab phantom, and gold, gadolinium, and iron oxide (Fe2O3) were employed as dose enhancement agents. In consideration of the buildup region of the incident energy, agent concentrations of 5, 10, 15, and 20 mg/g were inserted on the surface of the phantom at a depth of 5 cm. Based on baseline values obtained in the absence of dose enhancement agents, a quantitative analysis was performed by evaluating depth-dependent changes in the absorbed energy and the dose enhancement factor (DEF). A higher concentration of dose enhancement agents led to a greater dose enhancement effect with iron oxide, gadolinium, and gold in descending order. For kilovoltage (kV) X-rays, as the incident energy was decreased and as the energy became closer to the ionization potential of the atoms in the enhancement agent, the dose enhancement effect increased. In the megavoltage (MV) X-ray range, dose enhancement was higher at 6 MV compared with 15 MV. However, the overall dose enhancements were significantly lower compared to the results obtained with kV X-rays.

A Monte Carlo Study of Secondary Electron Production from Gold Nanoparticle in Kilovoltage and Megavoltage X-rays (몬테칼로 기법을 이용한 금 나노입자에서의 2차 전자 발생 평가)

  • Hwang, Chul-Hwan;Kang, Se-Sik;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.153-159
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated relationship between secondary electrons produced from single gold nanoparticle as a result of its interaction with radiation and particle size and incidence energy, provided basic data related to the dose enhancement effect based on gold nanoparticles. Monte Carlo simulation was applied by using MCNPX MC code, 50, 100, 150 kV and 6, 15 MV x-ray energy was used. In a water phantom, single gold nanoparticles that are 30, 50, 70, 90, and 110 nm in diameter were placed and the tally volume was designated at every 10 nm. Difference in electrons produced from gold nanoparticles was normalized based on absence of nanoparticle. When the X ray energy decreased and the diameter of gold particles increased, more electrons were produced. When the energy was lower, in the linear formula related to nanoparticle size and electron production, the gradient was higher. And, in comparison to the MV X-ray, at kV X-ray, significantly more electrons were produced. This study can be used as data to understand the dose enhancement effect based on gold nanoparticles, and further research related to various materials that dose enhancement including gold nanoparticles needs to be conducted.

Aircraft Combat Survivability Analysis based on the Random Variable Weighted Score Algorithm (확률변수 가중치 환산법 기반 군용 항공기 생존성 분석기법)

  • Yang, Ju-Suk;Lee, Kyung-Tae;Jee, Cheol-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.883-890
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    • 2013
  • Aircraft combat survivability analysis is essential process for the development of combat aircraft. M&S methodology is the typical procedure for the aircraft combat survivability analysis, and the last step is the expensive Live Fire Test if it is necessary. This study introduced cost and time effective survivability analysis methodology based on the random variable weighted score algorithm in conceptual design phase. For this study, essential element and event analysis (E3A) is used to define the random variables and Monte-Carlo simulation is implemented to estimate weighted score and the final value of survivability.

An Antenna Shuffling Scheme for DSTTD System Based on Post-processing Signal to Noise Ratio (수신 신호 대 잡음비에 기반한 안테나 셔플링을 적용 DSTTD 시스템)

  • Jung Sunghun;Shim Seijoon;Lee Chungyong;Youn Dae Hee
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.75-80
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    • 2005
  • A new antenna shuffling scheme for double space time transmit diversity is proposed. The proposed method obtains the shuffling pattern directly from the estimated channel by maximizing minimum post-processing signal to noise ratio(SNR), while the conventional method minimizes channel correlation. Since the minimum post-processing SNR is directly related with error performance, the proposed method shows better bit error rate performance than the conventional method. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the proposed scheme has more 3 dB SNR gain than the conventional scheme for 10/sup -3/ bit error rate in spatially correlated fadingcaused by a single cluster model.

Air-traffic dispatching scheduling in terminal airspace (공항접근영역 항공교통 Dispatching 스케줄링 연구)

  • Jeong, Sun-Jo;Cho, Doo-Hyun;Choi, Han-Lim
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.44 no.11
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    • pp.973-980
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    • 2016
  • An air traffic management (ATM) has been studied in a variety of fields to utilize an air traffic capacity efficiently and solve a congested air traffic situation due to an increment of an air traffic demand. In this paper, an air traffic management, which is related with controlling and determining the sequencing of an aircraft approaching to an airport, in terminal control area is studied. This paper focuses on scheduling algorithms with a given problem for the air traffic management with operational constraints, such as a space separation, an overtaking on the same air-route, and a route merge point (a scheduling point). For a real-time calculation, the presented algorithms focus on dispatching heuristic rules which are able to assign tasks in a fast time period with an adequate performance, which can be demonstrated as a proper and realistic scheduling algorithm. A simulation result is presented to illustrate the validity and applicability of the proposed algorithm. Each scheduling rule is analyzed on the same static and dynamic air traffic flow scenario with the ATM Monte-Carlo simulation.

Equal Gain Differential Precoding Technique for Temporally Correlated Channels (시간 상관 채널에서 동 이득 차분 선부호화 기법)

  • Li, Xun;Kim, Sang-Gu;Kim, Young-Ju
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we propose a novel equal-gain differential precoding scheme utilizing temporal correlation of channels. The conventional differential precoding schemes only quantize a part of channel space not the whole channel space, so that it virtually increases codebook size which enhances the system capacity. But the conventional differential schemes increase peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) without preserving equal-gain transmission. This paper proposes the design method of equal-gain differential precoding scheme and analyzes the performances of the proposed equal-gain precoding scheme. Monte-Carlo simulations verify that the proposed scheme has an advantage of 1dB to obtain the same system capacity with the same amount of feedback information compared with the conventional LTE schemes, with showing very low PAPR property.