• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte carlo analysis

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Microbial Risk Assessment in Treated Wastewater Irrigation on Paddy Rice Plot (하수처리수를 관개한 후 벼재배 시험구에 대한 미생물 위해성 평가)

  • Jung, Kwang-Wook;An, Youn-Joo;Jang, Jae-Ho;Jeon, Ji-Hong;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.38 no.2 s.112
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2005
  • The protection of public health In wastewater reclamation and reuse is one of the most important issues. Monitoring data of Escherichia coli were collected from paddy rice plots in 2003 and 2004 experiments. Five treatments were used and each one was triplicated to evaluate the changes of E. coli: surface water, biofilter effluent (secondary level), UV-disinfected water and pond treatment. Microbial risk was quantified to assess human health risk by exposure to E. coli in paddy rice plots, which were irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. Beta-Poisson model was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogen ingestion that may occur to farmer and neighbor children. Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. In the following analysis, two scenarios were related to the reduction of risk against direct ingestion and exposure times. Scenarios A and B were assumed that the risk was 1,000 and 10,000 times lower than direct ingestion.'Golfers were assumed to be 0.001 L of reclaimed water by contact with balls and their cloths. Opportunity of contact in paddy rice field with pathogens was more frequent than handing golf balls, because of agricultural activity was practiced in ponded water in paddy rice culture. As a result of microbial risk assessment using total data of experimental period, risk value of E. coli in 2003 and 2004 experiment ranged from $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-8}$ and $10^{-4}$ to $10^{-8}$, respectively. The risk values in biofilter effluent irrigation was the highest, which is $10^{-4}$ in 2003 and $10^{-5}$ in 2004 experiments with scenario A. Ranges of $10^{-6}$ to $10^{-8}$ were considered at reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure and the risk value above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be attributable to the risk of infection. Irrigation with UV-disinfected water in the paddy field during the agricultural Period showed significantly lower microbial risk than others, and their levels of risk value were within the range of actual paddy rice field with surface water.

A Study on Developing a Model for Cancer Damage Cost Due to Risk from Benzene in Ulsan Metropolitan City (울산 지역에서 대기중 벤젠으로 인한 암 사망 손실비용 추정 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Jin;Kim, Ye-Shin;Shin, Dong-Chun;Shin, Young-Chul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.49-82
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    • 2004
  • The study aimed to evaluate cancer damage cost due to risk from benzene inhalation. We performed health risk assessment based on US EPA guideline to estimate annual population risk in Ulsan metropolitan city. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay amount for reducing a cancer mortality rate to evaluate a value of statistical life. We combined the annual population risk and the value of statistical life to calculate the cancer damage cost. In the health risk assessment, we applied the benzene unit risk ($2.2{\times}10^{-6}{\sim}7.8{\times}10^{-6}$) in the US EPA'S Integrated Risk Information System to assess the annual population risk. Average concentration of benzene in ambient air is $7.88{\mu}g/m^3$(min: 1.16~max: $23.32{\mu}g/m^3$). We targeted an exposure population of 516,641 persons who aged over 30 years old. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we evaluated that the population risk of benzene during ten years in Ulsan city is 2.90 persons (5 percentile: 0.32~95 percentile: 9.11persons). And the monthly average WTP for 5/1,000 cancer mortality reduction during ten years is 14,852 Won(95% C.I: 13,135~16,794 Won) and the implied VSL is 36 million Won(95% C.I: 30~40 million Won). Cancer damage cost due to risk from benzene inhalation during 10 years in Ulsan city is about 104 million Won(5 percentile: 13~95 percentile: 328 million Won). Health benefit cost to reduce a cancer mortality risk of benzene is about 50 million Won is Ulsan metropolitann city. But, it is very important that this cost is not for all health damage cost of cancer mortality in some area. We just recommended a model for evaluating a cancer risk reduction, so we must re-evaluate an integrated application of total VOCs damage cost including benzene.

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Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Edible Mushrooms (국내 유통 버섯 중 중금속 함량 조사 및 위해성 평가)

  • Kim, Ji-Young;Yoo, Ji-Hyock;Lee, Ji-Ho;Kim, Min-Ji;Kang, Dae-Won;Ko, Hyeon-Seok;Hong, Su-Myeong;Im, Geon-Jae;Kim, Doo-Ho;Jung, Goo-Bok;Kim, Won-Il
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2012
  • BACKGROUND: Many edible mushrooms are known to accumulate high levels of heavy metals. This research was focused on health risk assessment to investigate the mushrooms in Korea, arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and mercury (Hg) contaminations in edible mushrooms in cultivated areas were investigated, and health risk was assessed through dietary intake of mushrooms. METHODS AND RESULTS: The heavy metals in mushrooms were analyzed by ICP/MS after acid digestion. Probabilistic health risk were estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation techniques. The average contents of As, Cd, Pb, and Hg were $0.035{\pm}0.042$ mg/kg, $0.017{\pm}0.020$ mg/kg, $0.043{\pm}0.013$ mg/kg, and $0.004{\pm}0.004$ mg/kg, respectively. The results showed that contents of Cd and Pb did not exceed maximum residual levels established by European Uion regulation (Cd 0.20 mg/kg and Pb 0.30 mg/kg). For health risk assessment, estimated intakes in all age populations did not exceed the provisional tolerable daily intake of As and Hg, provisional tolerable monthly intake of Cd, provisional tolerable weekly intake of Pb. The Hazard Index (HI) were ranged from $0.03{\times}10^{-4}{\sim}0.01{\times}10^{-3}$ for As, $0.02{\times}10^{-3}{\sim}0.81{\times}10^{-3}$ for Cd, $0.06{\times}10^{-3}{\sim}0.38{\times}10^{-3}$ for Pb, and $0.08{\times}10^{-4}{\sim}0.14{\times}10^{-3}$ for Hg at general population. CONCLUSION: The HI from the ratio analysis between daily exposure and safety level values was less than 1.0. This results demonstrated that human exposure to heavy metals through dietary intake of mushrooms might not cause adverse effect.