• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.9
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• pp.729-741
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• 2015

This study examined the applicability of MBLRP (Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse) rainfall generation model for an urban flood simulation which is a type of Poisson cluster rainfall generation model. This study constructed XP-SWMM model for Namgajwa area of Hongjecheon basin, which is a two-dimensional pipe network-surface flood simulation program and computed a flood discharge and a flooded area with input data of synthetic rainfall time series of 200 years that were generated by the MBLRP model. This study compared the data of flood with synthetic rainfall and flood with corresponding values which were based on design rainfall. The results showed that the flooded area computed with MBLRP model was somewhat smaller than the corresponding values on the basis of the design. A degree of underestimation was from 8% (5 year) to 34% (200 year) and the degree of underestimation increased as a return period increased. This study is meaningful in that it proposes methodology that enables quantifiability of uncertain variables which are related to a flooding through Monte Carlo analysis of urban flooding simulation and applicability and limitations thereof.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.681-688
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• 2022

According to a recent study, most construction companies in Korea do not manage risk effectively, and it is judged that the risk management system needs to be improved. In addition, most risk-related studies deal with risks from a macroscopic perspective, and there are few studies dealing with process risks at the project construction stage. Therefore, this study tried to suggest a risk response plan through analysis and classification of risk factors that may occur in retaining work among process risks. To this end, a workshop was held for risk experts to identify and analyze risks that may occur during the construction of retaining work for apartments. As a result of the study, it was expected that savings of KRW 4.97 billion would be possible in the 95 % confidence interval, and the maximum possible cost was reduced from KRW 15 billion to about KRW 10 billion. Based on the risk reduction ratio, it was found that risks that can be reduced without any special input cost, risks with large effects in response to risks, and risks with insignificant effects were found. Therefore, using the types and risk factors presented in this study as guides, it is expected that it will be helpful in successfully operating the project if an appropriate response strategy is prepared and systematically responded to the site conditions.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.4A
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• pp.647-657
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• 2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Cable Stayed Bridge, which is Prestressed Concrete Bridge consisted of cable and plate girders, based on the method of Working Stress Design and Strength Design. Component reliabilities of cables and girders have been evaluated using the response surface of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear, positive and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to obtain through Monte-Carlo Simulations. or through First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system consisting of cables and plate girder is changed into series connection system and the result of system reliability of total structure is presented. As a system reliability, the upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method, which calculates upper and lower bound failure probabilities.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.18 no.2_spc
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• pp.227-235
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• 2020

In this study, we discussed the limitations of gross alpha measurements for the characterization of radioactive wastes produced in nuclear facilities through experimental tests and Monte Carlo N-particle transport simulations. The determination of gross alpha is essential for the disposal of radioactive waste produced in nuclear facilities in Korea. The measurements of gross alpha are easy to perform and yield rapid analytical results, but it cannot be used for quantitative analysis. The error of counting efficiency for gross alpha with various masses of the deposit on planchets using KCl and ²⁴¹Am was determined. The relative deviation of the counting efficiency in samples having the same mass was 20%. Uranium was extracted from the soil through acid leaching and extraction chromatography, and the concentration of U determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was compared with the results for gross alpha. The gross alpha was underestimated by 50% compared to the U concentration by ICP-MS. The counting efficiency depended on the energy from the alpha emitters, which differed by up to three times in determination of the counting efficiency depending on the kinds of alpha radionuclides of interest. Therefore, the gross alpha is not compatible with the sum of radioactivity for each alpha emitter and is suitable as a screening method.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.8128-8139
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• 2015

Recently, the necessity of developing the load and resistance factor design(LRFD) for soft ground improvement method has been raised, since the limit state design is requested as international technical standard for the foundation of structures. In this study, to develop LRFD codes for foundation structures in Korea, target reliability index and resistance factor for static bearing capacity of driven steel pipe piles were calibrated in the framework of reliability theory. The 16 data(in Gwangyang) and the 57 data(Korea Institute of Construction Technology, 2008) sets of static load test and soil property tests conducted in the whole domestic area were collected along with available subsurface investigation results. The resistance bias factors were evaluated for the tow static design methods by comparing the representative measured bearing capacities with the expected design values. Reliability analysis was performed by two types of advanced methods : the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method using resistance bias factor statistics. As a result, when target reliability indices of the driven pipe pile were selected as 2.0, 2.33, 2.5, resistance factor of two design methods for SPT N at pile tip less than 50 were evaluated as 0.611~0.684, 0.537~0.821 respectively, and STP N at pile tip more than 50 were evaluated as 0.545~0.608, 0.643~0.749 respectively. The result from this research will be useful for developing various foundations and soil structures under LRFD.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.300-309
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• 2017

A spacecraft obtains a reaction momentum required for an orbit correction and an attitude control by exhausting a combustion gas through a small thruster in space. If the exhaust plume collides with spacecraft surfaces, it is very important to predict the exhaust plume behavior of the thruster when designing a satellite, because a generated disturbance force/torque, a heat load and a surface contamination can yield a life shortening and a reduction of the spacecraft function. The purpose of the present study is to ensure the core technology required for the spacecraft design by analyzing numerically the exhaust gas behavior of the 10 N class bipropellant thruster for an attitude control of the spacecraft. To do this, calculation results of chemical equilibrium reaction between a MMH for fuel and a NTO for oxidizer, and continuum region of the nozzle inside are implemented as inlet conditions of the DSMC method for the exhaust plume analysis. From these results, it is possible to predict a nonequilibrium expansion such as a species separation and a backflow in the vicinity of the bipropellant thruster nozzle.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.69-84
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• 1997

We consider a linear calibration problem, $y_i = $$\alpha + \beta (x_i - x_0) + \epsilon_i$, $i=1, 2, {\cdot}{\cdot},n$ $y_f = \alpha + \beta (x_f - x_0) + \epsilon, $ where we observe $(x_i, y_i)$'s for the controlled calibration experiments and later we make inference about $x_f$ from a new observation $y_f$. The objective of the calibration design problem is to find the optimal design $x = (x_i, \cdots, x_n$ that gives the best estimates for $x_f$. We compare Kim(1989)'s Bayesian design which minimizes the expected value of the posterior variance of $x_f$ and some optimal designs from literature. Kim suggested the Bayesian optimal design based on the analysis of the characteristics of the expected loss function and numerical must be equal to the prior mean and that the sum of squares be as large as possible. The designs to be compared are (1) Buonaccorsi(1986)'s AV optimal design that minimizes the average asymptotic variance of the classical estimators, (2) D-optimal and A-optimal design for the linear regression model that optimize some functions of $M(x) = \sum x_i x_i'$, and (3) Hunter & Lamboy (1981)'s reference design from their paper. In order to compare the designs which are optimal in some sense, we consider two criteria. First, we compare them by the expected posterior variance criterion and secondly, we perform the Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the HPD intervals and compare the lengths of them. If the prior mean of $x_f$ is at the center of the finite design interval, then the Bayesian, AV optimal, D-optimal and A-optimal designs are indentical and they are equally weighted end-point design. However if the prior mean is not at the center, then they are not expected to be identical.In this case, we demonstrate that the almost Bayesian-optimal design was slightly better than the approximate AV optimal design. We also investigate the effects of the prior variance of the parameters and solution for the case when the number of experiments is odd.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1996.02a
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• pp.59-86
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• 1996

Current methods for evaluating unsignalized intersections, and estimating level-of-service (LOS) is determined from efficiency-based criteria such as little or no delay to very long delays. At present, similar procedures to evaluate intersections using safety-based criteria do not exist. The improvement of sight distances at intersections is the most effective way of improving intersection safety. However, a set of procedures is necessary to account for the limitations in current methodology. Such an approach would build upon such methods, but also account for: deficiencies in the current deterministic solution for the determination of intersection sight distances; opportunity for an accident and severity of an accident; and cost-effectiveness of attaining various levels of sight distances. In this research, a model that estimates the degree of safety at two-way stop-controlled intersections is described. Only crossing maneuvers are considered in this study because accidents caused by the crossing maneuvers are the dominate type among intersection accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the hazard at an intersection as a function of roadway features and traffic conditions. Driver`s minimum gap acceptance in the crossing vehicles and headway distribution on the major road are used in the crossing vehicles and headway distribution on the major road are used in the model to simulate the real intersectional maneuvers. Other random variables addressed in the model are: traffic speeds; preception-reaction times of both drivers in the crossing vehicles and drivers in oncoming vehicles on the major road; and vehicles on the major roads. The developed model produces the total number of conflicts per year per vehicle and total potential kinetic energy per year per vehicle dissipated during conflicts as measurements of safety at intersections. Based on the results from the developed simulation model, desirable sight distances for various speeds were determined as 350 feet, 450 feet and 550 feet for 40 mph, 50 mph and 60 mph prevailing speed on the major road, respectively. These values are seven to eight percent less than those values recommended by AASHTO. A safety based level-of-service (LOS) is also developed using the results of the simulation model. When the total number of conflicts per vehicle is less than 0.05 at an intersection, the LOS of the intersection is `A' and when the total number of conflicts per vehicle is larger than 0.25 at an intersection, the LOS is `F'. Similarly, when the total hazard per vehicle is less than 350, 000 1b-ft2/sec2, the LOS is `F'. Once evaluation of the current safety at the intersection is complete, a sensitivity analysis can be done by changing one or more input parameters. This will estimate the benefit in terms of time and budget of hazard reduction based upon improving geometric and traffic characteristics at the intersection. This method will also enable traffic engineers in local governments to generate a priority list of intersection improvement projects.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.77-95
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• 2011

This paper investigates the relationship between export and economic variables such as trade insurance, world economy activity, relative price, unemployment rate, exchange rate volatility, using monthly data. I employ Johansen cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between export and variables. Also, the empirical analysis of cointegrating vector using the CCR, DOLS, FMOLS reveals that the increases of trade insurance has positive relations and the increases of exchange rate volatility have negative relations with export. Especially, DOLS based on Monte Carlo simulations, of this estimator being superior in small samples compared to a number of alternative estimators, as well as being able not only to accommodate higher orders of integration but also to account for possible simultaneity within regressors of a potential system. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get the additional information regarding the responses of the export to the shocks of the variables. The result indicates that export positively to trade insurance and then decay fast compare with exchange rate volatility. Consequently, trade insurance plays the role of trade policy for export promotion in Korea. Whereas, increase of exchange risk result in reduction of export. Therefore, the support of trade insurance should be expanded and the stabilization of the foreign exchange market must be done for the export promotion.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.77-86
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• 2000

There have been a few attempts to measure diffuse line emission between 900 $\AA$ and 1200 $\AA$, and only in a limited number of sight lines has it been detected. The main contributions to the equilibrium radiative cooling curve between $10^{4.5}K\;to\;10^6K$ are from the doublet of Ovi ${lambda}{lambda}1032;and;{lambda}{lambda}1038$ in the FUV spectral region. There are several bright airglow lines which could interfere with attempts to observe the OVI lines. The nearest lines HI 1025 $\AA$, OI 1027 $\AA$ have a combined intensity of about $10^{5.5}$ photons/s/$cm^2$/sr. In the present study, the detectability simulation of OVI doublet is performed using a Monte-Carlo technique and chi-square statistics. The analysis results are compared with the previous observations and with the predictions of several interstellar medium models, and are used to limit manufacturing and alignment errors of FIMS optical system.