• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.81-88
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• 2009

Two dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations of a non-reactive solute plume in isotropic porous media which are physically and chemically heterogeneous are conducted to determine the variations of moment. Retardation factors of 1, 2 and 5 are given to ascertain how the second moments are changed as adsorption increased. Retarded longitudinal second spatial moment, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$, increased during the transport process and as the dimensionless lengths of line plume source, $l_2'$, increased. ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$ decreased as the retardation factors increased, and the simulated moments fit well to the first-order analytical results. Retarded longitudinal plume centroid variance, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$, decreased as the dimensionless lengths of line plume source, $l_2'$, increased and as the retardation factor increased. The result indicates that the uncertainty about the plume center decreased, and the ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching. Simulated longitudinal one particle displacement covariance, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t')$, well consistent with the first-order analytical results for the three degrees of retardation factors of 1, 2 and 5 respectively. It is, consequently, concluded that the retarded longitudinal second moments could be produced by stochastic simulation, and that the first-order analytical results definitely provides very close values of the longitudinal retarded moments.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.300-309
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• 2017

A spacecraft obtains a reaction momentum required for an orbit correction and an attitude control by exhausting a combustion gas through a small thruster in space. If the exhaust plume collides with spacecraft surfaces, it is very important to predict the exhaust plume behavior of the thruster when designing a satellite, because a generated disturbance force/torque, a heat load and a surface contamination can yield a life shortening and a reduction of the spacecraft function. The purpose of the present study is to ensure the core technology required for the spacecraft design by analyzing numerically the exhaust gas behavior of the 10 N class bipropellant thruster for an attitude control of the spacecraft. To do this, calculation results of chemical equilibrium reaction between a MMH for fuel and a NTO for oxidizer, and continuum region of the nozzle inside are implemented as inlet conditions of the DSMC method for the exhaust plume analysis. From these results, it is possible to predict a nonequilibrium expansion such as a species separation and a backflow in the vicinity of the bipropellant thruster nozzle.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.69-84
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• 1997

We consider a linear calibration problem, $y_i = $$\alpha + \beta (x_i - x_0) + \epsilon_i$, $i=1, 2, {\cdot}{\cdot},n$ $y_f = \alpha + \beta (x_f - x_0) + \epsilon, $ where we observe $(x_i, y_i)$'s for the controlled calibration experiments and later we make inference about $x_f$ from a new observation $y_f$. The objective of the calibration design problem is to find the optimal design $x = (x_i, \cdots, x_n$ that gives the best estimates for $x_f$. We compare Kim(1989)'s Bayesian design which minimizes the expected value of the posterior variance of $x_f$ and some optimal designs from literature. Kim suggested the Bayesian optimal design based on the analysis of the characteristics of the expected loss function and numerical must be equal to the prior mean and that the sum of squares be as large as possible. The designs to be compared are (1) Buonaccorsi(1986)'s AV optimal design that minimizes the average asymptotic variance of the classical estimators, (2) D-optimal and A-optimal design for the linear regression model that optimize some functions of $M(x) = \sum x_i x_i'$, and (3) Hunter & Lamboy (1981)'s reference design from their paper. In order to compare the designs which are optimal in some sense, we consider two criteria. First, we compare them by the expected posterior variance criterion and secondly, we perform the Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the HPD intervals and compare the lengths of them. If the prior mean of $x_f$ is at the center of the finite design interval, then the Bayesian, AV optimal, D-optimal and A-optimal designs are indentical and they are equally weighted end-point design. However if the prior mean is not at the center, then they are not expected to be identical.In this case, we demonstrate that the almost Bayesian-optimal design was slightly better than the approximate AV optimal design. We also investigate the effects of the prior variance of the parameters and solution for the case when the number of experiments is odd.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.105-115
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• 2008

Judgement post-stratification is a new sampling method developed by MacEachern et al. (2004). This article suggests that the judgement post-stratification method can be a good alternative for the simple random sampling when analyzing real-world environmental data. It becomes an important task to accurately measure the output of a recycling facility since the EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility) system takes effect on 2003. However, the total weight of materials processed in the recycling facility may not be a proper measure because the materials are frequently mingled with other non-recycling materials. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the mixture ratio of non-recycling materials among the total materials admitted in the facility. Unfortunately, the size of sample in a recycling facility is restricted due to the inconvenience of sampling procedure such as safety, odor, time and classification of non-recycling materials. In this article, we showed the relative efficiency of the judgement post-stratification method over the simple random sampling method for equal sample sizes using Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, we applied the judgement post-stratification method on the 2004 recycling data and showed that it can replace the simple random sampling even with smaller observations.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.3347-3352
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• 2010

It is recommended that the door of control room is closed during radiography to protect a radiologic technologist. However, for those patients such as of emergency or pediatrics, the door must be kept open unavoidably to apply immediate medical administration and treatment on the potential case of emergency which could be happened through the course of radiography. In addition, it could be efficient by reducing patients waiting time when the door is open for a general case. This study was conducted to evaluate practical exposure rate to a radiologic technologist when the door is open during the radiography, and to find out the ways to minimize radiation exposure and to increase the efficiency simultaneously. Measuring practical exposure rate was fulfilled with glass dosimeter, and it was 2.02 mGy/week at the location of radiologic technologist under the condition that the door is open during the radiography, which was about 2.3 times higher than the 100 mR/week. It means that the considerable amount of scattered rays through the door opening, and increase exposure rate at the radiologic technologist. Hence we confirmed that a radiologic technologist probably overexposed if the door is open during the radiography. It was also confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation that the exposure rate could be reduced up to approximately 1/100 by change only the door opening direction. In conclusion, since the proper door opening direction provides same shielding effect whether it is open or close, the door opening direction need to be considered when it is installed at radiography facilities.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.175-184
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• 2006

This study focused on developing Life Cycle Cost(LCC) analysis model for selecting sludge collectors in wastewater treatment system and applying the model to a case study. Cost items are examined through literature review and historical data of a facility. Analysis period, discount rate, energy cost escalation ratio are assumed to reasonable level. Monetary evaluation is performed using historical data and estimations from vendors. Sensitive analysis is executed using Monte Carlo Simulation for assumed factors. Interviews with operators, vendors, constructors, managers are conducted to define factors which indicates ease of maintenance, ease of delivery, technical performance, efficiency, environmental friendship. Factors are representing technical and social factors. Results from LCC analysis and qualitative analysis are evaluate together with Weighted Matrix Evaluation Methods for optimum alternative of sludge collectors.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.137-152
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to estimate efficiency of agricultural business corporations using Data Envelopment Analysis. A proposed method employs a bootstrapping approach to generate efficiency estimates through Monte Carlo simulation re-sampling process. The technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency measure of the corporations is 0.749 0.790, 0.948 respectively. Among the 692 agricultural business corporations, the number of Increasing Returns to Scale (IRS)-type corporations was analyzed to be 539(77.9%). The number of Constant Returns to Scale (CRS)-type corporations was 108(15.6%), and that of Decreasing Returns to Scale (DRS)-type corporations was 45(6.5%). Since an increase in input is lower than an increase in output in IRS, an increase in input factors such as new investments is required. The Tobit model suggests that the type of corporation, capital level, and period of operation affect the efficiency score more than others. The positive coefficient of capital level and period of operation variable indicates that efficiency score increases as capital level and period of operation increases.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.35-38
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• 2009

Flat-panel x-ray detectors using a phosphor and photoconductor material have been used for application in various medical modalities. In this study, the monte carlo simulation, optical and x-ray response characteristics were investigated in the conversion structure obtained by a columnar CsI:Na scintillation layer with a photosensitive amorphous selenium layer. Firstly, from the measurement of luminescent spectrum of CsI:Na and absorption spectrum of a-Se layer, the signal conversion characteristics are analysed. And also, the x-ray sensitivity is measured and compared with conventional a-Se($500{\mu}m$) as a function of electrical field. From the experimental result, the x-ray sensitivities of the CsI:Na($180{\mu}m$)/a-Se($30{\mu}m$) detector and the a-Se($500{\mu}m$) detector were $7.31nC/mR-cm^{2}$ and $3.95nC/mR-cm^{2}$at an electric field of $10V/{\mu}m$, respectively.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.485-495
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• 2016

To reinforce and improve the soft ground under a breakwater while using materials efficiently, the replacement ratio and leaving periods of surcharge load are optimized probabilistically. The results of Bayesian updating of the random variables using prior information decrease uncertainty by up to 39.8%, and using prior information with more samples results in a sharp decrease in uncertainty. Replacement ratios of 15%-40% are analyzed using First Order Reliability Method and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the replacement ratio. The results show that replacement ratios of 20% and 25% are acceptable at the column jet grouting area and the granular compaction pile area, respectively. Life cycle costs are also compared to optimize the replacement ratios within allowable ranges. The results show that a range of 20%-30% is the most economical during the total life cycle. This means that initial construction cost, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are minimized during total life cycle. Probabilistic analysis for leaving periods of shows that three months acceptable. Design optimization with respect to life cycle cost is important to minimize maintenance costs and retain the performance of the structures for the required period. Therefore, more case studies that consider the maintenance costs of soil structures are necessary to establish relevant design codes.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.799-805
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• 2016

Background: There is no standard treatment for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Single agent chemotherapies have evidence of more efficacy and less toxicity than combination therapy. Most are very expensive, with appreciable toxicity and minimal survival. Since it is difficult to make comparison between outcomes, economic analysis of single-agent chemotherapy regimens and best supportive care may help to make decisions about an appropriate management for the affected patients. Objective: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of second-line chemotherapy compared with best supportive care for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: A Markov model was used to estimate the effectiveness and total costs associated with treatments. The hypothetical patient population comprised women aged 55 with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Four types of alternative treatment options were evaluated: 1) gemcitabine followed by BSC; 2) pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) followed by BSC; 3) gemcitabine followed by topotecan; and 4) PLD followed by topotecan. Baseline comparator of alternative treatments was BSC. Time horizon of the analysis was 2 years. Health care provider perspective and 3% discount rate were used to determine the costs of medical treatment in this study. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were used to measure the treatment effectiveness. Treatment effectiveness data were derived from the literature. Costs were calculated from unit cost treatment of epithelial ovarian cancer patients at various stages of disease in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital (KCMH) in the year 2011. Parameter uncertainty was tested in probabilistic sensitivity analysis by using Monte Carlo simulation. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore each variable's impact on the uncertainty of the results. Results: Approximated life expectancy of best supportive care was 0.182 years and its total cost was 26,862 Baht. All four alternative treatments increased life expectancy. Life expectancy of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 0.510, 0.513, 0.566, and 0.570 years, respectively. The total cost of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 113,000, 124,302, 139,788 and 151,135 Baht, respectively. PLD followed by topotecan had the highest expected quality-adjusted life-years but was the most expensive of all the above strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 344,643, 385,322, 385,856, and 420,299 Baht, respectively. Conclusions: All of the second-line chemotherapy strategies showed certain benefits due to an increased life-year gained compared with best supportive care. Moreover, gemcitabine as second-line chemotherapy followed by best supportive care in progressive disease case was likely to be more effective strategy with less cost from health care provider perspective. Gemcitabine was the most cost-effective treatment among all four alternative treatments. ICER is only an economic factor. Treatment decisions should be based on the patient benefit.