• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monitoring

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A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

The inference about the cause of death of Korean Fir in Mt. Halla through the analysis of spatial dying pattern - Proposing the possibility of excess soil moisture by climate changes - (한라산 구상나무 공간적 고사패턴 분석을 통한 고사원인 추정 - 기후변화에 따른 토양수분 과다 가능성 제안 -)

  • Ahn, Ung San;Kim, Dae Sin;Yun, Young Seok;Ko, Suk Hyung;Kim, Kwon Su;Cho, In Sook
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the density and mortality rate of Korean fir at 9 sites where individuals of Korean firs were marked into the live and dead trees with coordinates on orthorectified aerial images by digital photogrammetric system. As a result of the analysis, Korean fir in each site showed considerable heterogeneity in density and mortality rate depending on the location within site. This make it possible to assume that death of Korean fir can occur by specific factors that vary depending on the location. Based on the analyzed densities and mortality rates of Korea fir, we investigated the correlation between topographic factors such as altitude, terrain slope, drainage network, solar radiation, aspect and the death of Korean fir. The density of Korean fir increases with altitude, and the mortality rate also increases. A negative correlation is found between the terrain slope and the mortality rate, and the mortality rate is higher in the gentle slope where the drainage network is less developed. In addition, it is recognized that depending on the aspect, the mortality rate varies greatly, and the mean solar radiation is higher in live Korean fir-dominant area than in dead Korean fir-dominant area. Overall, the mortality rate of Korean fir in Mt. Halla area is relatively higher in areas with relatively low terrain slope and low solar radiation. Considering the results of previous studies that the terrain slope has a strong negative correlation with soil moisture and the relationship between solar radiation and evaporation, these results lead us to infer that excess soil moisture is the cause of Korean fir mortality. These inferences are supported by a series of climate change phenomena such as precipitation increase, evaporation decrease, and reduced sunshine duration in the Korean peninsula including Jeju Island, increase in mortality rate along with increased precipitation according to the elevation of Mt. Halla and the vegetation change in the mountain. It is expected that the spatial patterns in the density and mortality rate of Korean fir, which are controlled by topography such as altitude, slope, aspect, solar radiation, drainage network, can be used as spatial variables in future numerical modeling studies on the death or decline of Korean fir. In addition, the method of forest distribution survey using the orthorectified aerial images can be widely used as a numerical monitoring technique in long - term vegetation change research.

Does the Availability of Various Types and Quantity of Food Limit the Community Structure of the Benthos (Mollusks) Inhabiting in the Hard-bottom Subtidal Area? (먹이생물의 종류와 양이 암반 조하대 저서동물(연체동물) 군집구조 결정요소가 될 수 있는가?)

  • SON, MIN-HO;KIM, HYUN-JUNG;KANG, CHANG-KEUN;HWANG, IN-SUH;KIM, YOUNG-NAM;MOON, CHANG-HO;HWANG, JUNG-MIN;HAN, SU-JIN;LEE, WON-HAENG
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.128-138
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    • 2019
  • Effects of feeding type and food resource availability on community structure of mollusks inhabiting hard-bottom subtidal areas were investigated. By following guidance from several references, mollusks observed in this study were divided into 5 groups according to feeding type - 1) grazing, 2) filter feeding, 3) deposit feeding, 4) omnivorous and 5) predation. The results showed that both grazing and filter feeders were the most numerous, explaining grazing type in the East Sea accounting for 47.9%, 32.6% in the South Sea and 29.6% for filter feeding, and filter feeding as a dominant feeding type in Yellow Sea accounting for 42.3%. Results of this study showed distinctive difference in community structure depending on mechanism of feeding type and geographical areas where sampling took place. With the results, attempts were made to understand whether community structure could be affected by feeding type or feeding availability and found out that community structure depended heavily on food resource availability. In the East Sea where marine algal density was high, the algal community in the forms of thick-leathery and sheet often occurred in water column with high transparency which provides proper environment for growth. In the South Sea where grazing and filter feeding types were predominated similarly, the algal density was high, but had the relative highest phytoplankton density. Whereas in the Yellow Sea showing the lowest algal biomass compared to the one in the East and the South Sea, and phytoplankton density was similar to those. It might be a adequate environment for filter feeders than grazers. This study concluded that community structure of mollusks showing high abundance was present where food resource availability with types and quantity was high.

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Macrozoobenthos in the Three Estuaries of South Korea (우리나라 3개 하구역 대형저서동물 군집 시공간 분포)

  • LIM, HYUN-SIG;LEE, JIN-YOUNG;LEE, JUNG-HO;SHIN, HYUN-CHUL;RYU, JONGSEONG
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.106-127
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to understand spatio-temporal variations of macrozoobenthos community in Han River (HRE), Geum River (GRE), and Nakdong River estuaries (NRE) of Korea, sampled by National Survey of Marine Ecosystem. The survey was seasonally performed at a total of 20 stations for three years (2015-2017). Sediment samples were taken three times with van Veen grab of $0.1m^2$) areal size and sieved through a 1 mm pore size mesh on site. A total of 1,008 species were identified with 602 species in HRE, 612 in GRE, and 619 in NRE, showing similar number of species between estuaries. Mean density was $1,357ind./m^2$, showing the high in NRE ($1,357ind./m^2$), mid in GRE ($1,357ind./m^2$), and low in HRE ($1,127ind./m^2$). Mean biomass was $116.8g/m^2$, showing similar variations to density ($174.2g/m^2$ in NRE, $129.0g/m^2$ in GRE, $49.0g/m^2$ in HRE). Polychaeta dominated in number of species and density in three estuaries. Biomass-dominated taxon was Mollusca in HRE and GRE, and Echinodermata in NRE. Polychaetous species dominated all three estuaries over 4% of density, such as Dispio oculata, Heteromastus filiformis and Aonides oxycephala in HRE, Heteromastus filiformis and Scoletoma longifolia in GRE, and Pseudopolydora sp. and Aphelochaeta sp. in NRE, showing various density between estuaries. Community structure was determined by various environmental variables among estuaries such as mean grain size and sorting (HRE), salinity and mean grain size (GRE), and salinity, dissolved oxygen, loss on ignition and mud content (NRE). Our study demonstrates the application of different measures to manage ecosystems in three estuaries. HRE needs to alleviate sedimentary stressors such as sand mining, land-filling, dike construction. Management of GRE should be focused on fresh water control and sedimentary stressors. In NRE, monitoring of dominant benthos and process study on hypoxia occurrence in inner Masan Bay are necessary.

Evaluation of stream flow and water quality behavior by weir operation in Nakdong river basin using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 낙동강유역의 보 개방에 따른 하천유량 및 수질 거동 분석)

  • Lee, Ji Wan;Jung, Chung Gil;Woo, So Young;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.349-360
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the stream flow and water quality (SS, T-N, and T-P) behavior of Nakdong river basin ($23,609.3km^2$) by simulating the dam and weir operation scenarios using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The operation senarios are the simultaneous release for all dam and weirs (scenario 1), simultaneous release for all weirs (scenario 2), and sequential release for the weirs with one month interval from upstream weirs (scenario 3). Before evaluation, the SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2005-2015) daily multi-purpose dam inflow at 5 locations (ADD, IHD, HCD, MKD, and MYD), multi-function weir inflow at 7 locations (SHW, GMW, CGW, GJW, DSW, HCW, and HAW), and monthly water quality monitoring data at 6 locations (AD-4, SJ-2, EG, HC, MK-4, and MG). For the two dam inflow and dam storage, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was 0.56~0.79, and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.68~0.90. For water quality, the $R^2$ of SS, T-N, and T-P was 0.64~0.79, 0.51~0.74, and 0.53~0.72 respectively. For the three scenarios of dam and weir release combination suggested by the ministry of environment, the scenario 1 and 3 operations were improved the stream water quality (for T-N and T-P) within the 3 months since the time of release, but it showed the negative effect for 3 months after compared to scenario 2.

Development and Validation of an Analytical Method for Quinoxyfen in Agricultural Products using QuEChERS and LC-MS/MS (QuEChERS법 및 LC-MS/MS를 이용한 농산물 중 살균제 Quinoxyfen의 잔류시험법 개발 및 검증)

  • Cho, Sung Min;Do, Jung-Ah;Lee, Han Sol;Park, Ji-Su;Shin, Hye-Sun;Jang, Dong Eun;Choi, Young-Nae;Jung, Yong-hyun;Lee, Kangbong
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.140-147
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    • 2019
  • An analytical method was developed for the determination of quinoxyfen in agricultural products using the QuEChERS (Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe) method by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The samples were extracted with 1% acetic acid in acetonitrile and water was removed by liquid-liquid partitioning with $MgSO_4$ (anhydrous magnesium sulfate) and sodium acetate. Dispersive solid-phase extraction (d-SPE) cleanup was carried out using $MgSO_4$, PSA (primary secondary amine), $C_{18}$ (octadecyl) and GCB (graphitized carbon black). The analytes were quantified and confirmed by using LC-MS/MS in positive mode with MRM (multiple reaction monitoring). The matrix-matched calibration curves were constructed using six levels ($0.001-0.25{\mu}g/mL$) and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was above 0.99. Recovery results at three concentrations (LOQ, 10 LOQ, and 50 LOQ, n=5) were in the range of 73.5-86.7% with RSDs (relative standard deviations) of less than 8.9%. For inter-laboratory validation, the average recovery was 77.2-95.4% and the CV (coefficient of variation) was below 14.5%. All results were consistent with the criteria ranges requested in the Codex guidelines (CAC/GL 40-1993, 2003) and Food Safety Evaluation Department guidelines (2016). The proposed analytical method was accurate, effective and sensitive for quinoxyfen determination in agricultural commodities. This study could be useful for the safe management of quinoxyfen residues in agricultural products.

Vegetative Propagation and Morphological Characteristics of Amelanchier spp. with High Value as Fruit Tree for Landscaping (정원용 유실수로서 가치가 높은 채진목속(Amelanchier spp.)의 형태적 특성 및 영양번식방법)

  • Kang, Ho Chul;Hwang, Dae Yul;Ha, Yoo Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to investigate the growth characteristics and propagation methods of the Korean native Amelanchier asiatica, A. arborea, and A. alnifolia as fruit trees for gardens. Due to the lack of recent research on Amelanchier spp., their superficial classification is still unclear and the names are being used interchangeably. The results are obtained as follows : A. arborea and A. alnifolia were globular type multi-stemmed shrubs. A 20-year-old tree of A. asiatica was 7.8m in height, with a 5.2m crown width, with one trunk. As for the morphological characteristics, leaves of A. asiatica were oblong, with an acuminate of, 6.1cm and 3.6cm width, but A. arborea and A. alnifolia had acute obovate leaves. The leaf size of A. alnifolia was the largest among the three species. The flower size of A. asiatica was bigger than that of A. arborea and A. alnifolia. In addition, its petals and flower clusters were also the largest among the three species. The flowering of A. asiatica initiated on April 21 and then bloomed for a duration of 24 days in Osan, while that of A. arborea and A. alnifolia initiated flowering on April 12 and then bloomed for a duration of 22 days in the same location. The fruit of A. arborea and A. alnifolia were green on May 10~12, it changed into purplish red on May 24~26, and its matured on June 1~3. The duration of fruit persistence of A. arborea and A. alnifolia were 48~50 days. On the other hand, A. asiatica showed greenish fruit on May 20, it became red on September 4, and had fallen by October 3. The fruit size was the largest at 1.03cm of height and 1.12cm of diameter in the A. arborea, followed by the big berry of A. alnifolia and the smallest fruit in the native, A. asiatica. It was difficult to root due to the hardwood cutting of A. arborea at a 40% rate of rooting. In the softwood cutting, the rooting rate of A. arborea was increased by the treatment with concentrated IBA, especially at 5,000 and 7,000ppm. The optimum date for cutting was on June 27, when the rooting rate was more than 80%. The most effective method for rooting of A. arborea was rootone or 7,000 ppm IBA treatment on June 27 softwood cuttings, which showed a rooting rate of over 80%.

A Basic Study on the Performance Improvement of Safety Certification Standards (안전인증기준 성능화에 대한 기반 연구)

  • Byeon, Jung-Hwan;Kim, Jung-Gon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.487-499
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    • 2021
  • Purpose:The purpose of the paper is to review the problems of performance enhancement of safety certification standards and to suggest directions for improvement in order to rationalize safety certification standards for future industrial development and environmental changes. Method: The problems and limitations of the safety certification system are summarized through literature review and interview with manager, and the status of safety certification standards is classified into design standards, performance standards, and detailed standards, and the status analysis is performed. In addition, by synthesizing the results of the investigation and analysis, improvements are suggested to improve the performance of the safety certification standards. Result: Through the survey, the problems and limitations of safety certification could be grouped into six categories: government-led certification system operation, standardized certification standards, long time required to improve certification, poor certification standards preparation system, and lack of reflection of industry opinions. And, as a result of analyzing the certification standards by dividing them into performance and design standards, in the case of machinery, equipment, and protection devices, the design standards were high at 69.7% and 64.9%, whereas in the case of protective equipment, the performance standards were high at 61.1%. In order to improve the performance of safety certification standards centered on design standards, it is necessary to determine the possibility of performance enhancement of the certification standards and determine the feasibility of the inspection test method. In order to improve performance, it was reviewed that it was necessary to establish a systemic foundation and infrastructure, such as strengthening the Product Liability Act, systematizing market monitoring, etc., distributing certification test tasks, and participating in the preparation of certification standards by the private sector. Conclusion: Through this study, the problems and limitations of Korea's safety certification system were summarized and the necessity for performance improvement was reviewed. Performance improvement of safety certification standards is a matter that requires preparatory work, such as legislative revision and infrastructure construction, and requires mid-to-long-term promotion. In addition, rather than improving the overall safety certification standards, the performance requirements for each item subject to certification should be reviewed and promoted, and details should be specified through additional research.

Monitoring of Pesticide Residues on Herbs and Spices in the Incheon Metropolitan Area (인천 지역에 유통 중인 향신식물 및 향신료가공품 잔류농약 안전성 조사)

  • Yeo, Eun-young;Jung, Seung-Hye;Jang, Jin-Seob;Kwon, Sung-Hee;Park, Byung-Kyu;Lee, Soo-Yeon;Park, Jeong-Eun;Seo, Soon-Jae;Kim, Jung-Im;Kim, Meyong-Hee;Joo, Kwang-Sig;Hur, Myung-Je
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2021
  • In this study we investigated pesticide residues on herbs and spices disrtibuted in the Incheon Metropolitan area. A total of 112 samples were purchased from off-line and on-line markets from January to October 2020. In accordance with the implementation of the Positive List System (PLS), the proper usage of pesticides is now being enforced. It is assumed that unregistered pesticides are being used on herbs and spices due to the low number of registered pesticides in the agricultural industry. Pesticide residue levels were not detected in 99 samples but 11 kinds of pesticides in 6 samples (13 times) exceeded the MRLs. The pesticides that were used in accordance with the PLS were Diazinon, Diethofencarb and Pyridalyl. However, unregistered pesticides were on the herbs and spices. Therefore, it is necessary to educate producers of herbs and spices on the appropriate use of pesticides. It is also necessary to establish MRLs on herbs and spices.

Distribution and Conservation plan of Vascular Plants in Outstanding Forest Wetlands in Jeonnam Area (전남권역 우량 산림습원의 관속식물상 변화 및 보전방안)

  • Lee, Jong-Won;Yun, Ho-Geun;Kang, Shin-Ho;An, Jong-Bin
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.224-255
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    • 2022
  • This study was carried out to examine the changes in vascular flora in the first and second surveys targeting 32 outstanding forest wetlands in Jeonnam area including Gwangju metropolitan city, and based on this, establish a future monitoring system and effectively manage the excellent forest wetlands. The survey investigated the area seasonally every 4-5 years from 2015 to 2021. The change of flora of 32 excellent forest wetlands in Jeollanam-do increased from 103 families, 311 genera, 496 species, 16 subspecies, 38 varieties, 6 varieties, 556 taxa, to 111 families, 362 genera, 599 species, 16 subspecies, 51 varieties, 8 varieties, 674 taxa. Remarkable plants such as Red list and plants endemic to the Korean Peninsula increased also. However, Nepeta cataria and the like are exterminated locally, so an in situ and ex situ conservation strategy must be established. In the case of plants categorized according to wetland preference, the distribution ratio of such wetland plants slightly decreased and the distribution ratio of such terrestrial plants lightly increased for absolute wetland plants. It is necessary to prepare countermeasures for the terrestrialization of forest wetlands and to develop research techniques that can distinguish boundaries. In addition, the forest wetland should be systematically managed and supervised by designating it as a Forest Genetic Resources Reserve that can effectively conserve it.