• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monetary Economy

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The Methodological Aspects of Forecasting and the Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators

  • VYBOROVA, Elena Nikolaevna
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The main research goals by macroeconomic analysis is to assess the effectiveness of state regulation, the sustainability of development, and the financial stability of the state. Research design, Data, and methodology - The research were analyzed using the methods of multivariate statistics and application of the software package Stat graphics. The volume of data from the 1995 to the 2021 was analyzed by Russian Federation. The scale of research on Belarus: to be analyzed the amount of data from the 2015 by 2021, on Kazakhstan - from the 19941, on Kyrgyzstan - from the 2002, on Tajikistan - from the 2008, on Armenia - from the 2021, on Japan - since the 1970, on China - since the 1950, on South Korea - since the 1953. Result - The methods of multivariate statistics was demonstrated exact of result in forecasting of macroeconomic indicators. The most of tendency with the accurate results of are described using the second-degree polynomials. In the most research of country there are the macroeconomic proportion are broken. Conclusion - In the countries studied, the monetary aggregates have a significant growth rate. The shares with a substantial monetary stock and the speed of its growth are divided in the two groups: having placements in the real sectors of the economy and not having received the same result of development from the growth of the monetary stock.

The Connectedness between Categorical Policy Uncertainty Indexes and Volatility Index in Korea, Japan and the US (한국, 일본, 미국의 정책별 불확실성 지수와 변동성지수 간의 연계성)

  • Hangyong Lee; Sea-Gan Oh
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.319-330
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the connectedness between categorical economic policy uncertainty (monetary, fiscal, trade and foreign exchange policy uncertainty) indexes and option-implied volatility index in Korea, Japan and the US. Design/methodology/approach - This paper employs the Diebold-Ylmaz (2012) model based on a VAR and generalized forecast error variance decomposition. This paper also conducts regression analyses to investigate whether the volatility indexes are explained by categorical policy uncertainty indexes. Findings - First, we find the total connectedness is stronger in Korea and Japan relative to the US. Second, monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange policy uncertainty indexes are connected to each other but trade policy uncertainty index is not. Third, the volatility index in Japan and the US is mainly associated with monetary policy uncertainty while the volatility index in Korea is explained by fiscal policy uncertainty index. Research implications or Originality - To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the connectedness among categorical policy uncertainty indexes and the volatility index in Korea, Japan, and the US. The empirical results on the connectedness suggest that transparent policy and communication with the market in one type of policy would reduce the uncertainty in other policies.

Monetary policy synchronization of Korea and United States reflected in the statements (통화정책 결정문에 나타난 한미 통화정책 동조화 현상 분석)

  • Chang, Youngjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2021
  • Central banks communicate with the market through a statement on the direction of monetary policy while implementing monetary policy. The rapid contraction of the global economy due to the recent Covid-19 pandemic could be compared to the crisis situation during the 2008 global financial crisis. In this paper, we analyzed the text data from the monetary policy statements of the Bank of Korea and Fed reflecting monetary policy directions focusing on how they were affected in the face of a global crisis. For analysis, we collected the text data of the two countries' monetary policy direction reports published from October 1999 to September 2020. We examined the semantic features using word cloud and word embedding, and analyzed the trend of the similarity between two countries' documents through a piecewise regression tree model. The visualization result shows that both the Bank of Korea and the US Fed have published the statements with refined words of clear meaning for transparent and effective communication with the market. The analysis of the dissimilarity trend of documents in both countries also shows that there exists a sense of synchronization between them as the rapid changes in the global economic environment affect monetary policy.

Evaluation of Green GDP by Emergy Analysis (Emergy 분석법에 의한 녹색 GDP 산정)

  • Lee, Dong Joo;Jo, Hyo Seon;Lee, Suk Mo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.9
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    • pp.1139-1144
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    • 2015
  • The gross domestic product(GDP) measures the welfare of a nation's economy through the aggregation of products and services produced in a nation. Although GDP is a proficient measure of the magnitude of the economy, many economists, environmentalists, and citizens have recently criticized the gross domestic product. The criticism stems from the fact that this measurement of domestic product does not account for environmental degradation and resource depletion. We need to estimate the environmentally adjusted net domestic product. The gross domestic product was 913 trillion won while environmental protection expenditure was 32.9 trillion won by monetary accounts of Korea, 2010. Loss of natural assets was 76.6 trillion emwon by emergy analysis of Korea, 2010. The Green GDP was accounted for 88.0% of the GDP to 803.5 trillion won.

Effects of Consumption Value on Consumer Attitude in Purchasing HMR Products through Subscription Service (구독서비스를 통한 HMR 제품 구매에 있어 소비가치가 소비자태도에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hang;Kim, Joon-Hwan
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2020
  • In recent years, Korean consumption trends have undergone rapid changes. Also, subscription economy has emerged and is growing as a new shopping method. The purpose of this study was to verify the relationship between consumer attitude and intention to continue to use of the consumption value of subscription service based on subscription economy. To this end, we analyzed the structural equation modeling for 300 consumers who used HMR products through subscription services. The analysis results are as follows. First, consumption value (functional, emotional, social and monetary) of HMR products perceived by subscribers had a significantly positive effect on consumer attitude except for monetary value. Second, consumer attitude was found to have a positive effect on consumers' intention to continue to use. This study contributes to the development of academic theories related to the subscription service in the early stages and provides managerial implications for HMR-related companies that want to utilize subscription service.

The Economic Evaluation of the Forest Biodiversity in South Korea (산림생물다양성의 경제적 가치 평가)

  • Kim, Jung-Taek;Lee, Gwan-Gyu;Kim, Joon-Soon
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2012
  • In this study, biodiversity was classified as 4 sectors (genes, species, ecosystems, and cultures) and overall 14 indicators were subdivided by the classification criterion of 4 sectors. Among those 14 indicators, monetary evaluation was conducted for 11 indicators that can be quantified in economic perspectives. Results show that negative economy effects (forest degradation, forest fire, forest damage caused by diseases and insects, deforestation, and cost under the assumption with the adoption of the Nagoya Protocol to be compensated for traditional knowledge) by reducing forest biodiversity were evaluated as 254.5 billion won annually. Also, Bioindustry, indigenous species, forest production, protection area, and income associated with mountain village were considered as positive economy effects and their annual economic value was 6.72 trillion won. Net annual benefit by maintaining forest biodiversity was about 6.5 trillion won.

International Inflation Synchronization and Implications

  • CHON, SORA
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.57-84
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes global inflation synchronization and derives policy implications for the Korean economy. Unlike previous studies that assume a single global inflation factor, this study investigates if inflation in Korea can be explained further by other global inflation factors. Our principal component analysis provides three principal components for global inflation that are linked to the Korea inflation rate - the first component is closely related to OECD inflation, and the second and third components reflect China's inflation. This study empirically demonstrates via in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting that the three principal components of global inflation play a significant role in explaining and predicting Korean inflation in the short-term, while their role is limited in the mid-term. Domestic macroeconomic variables are found to be more important for the mid-term movements of the Korean inflation rate. The empirical results here suggest that the Bank of Korea should focus more on domestic economic conditions than on global inflation when implementing monetary policy because global factors are likely to be already reflected in domestic macro-variables in the mid-term.

The Impact of US Monetary Policy upon Korea's Financial Markets and Capital Flows: Based on TVP-VAR Analysis (미국 통화정책이 국내 금융시장 및 자금유출입에 미치는 영향: TVP-VAR 모형 분석)

  • Suh, Hyunduk;Kang, Tae Soo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.132-176
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    • 2019
  • We use a time-varying parameter vector auto regression (TVP-VAR) model to understand the impact of U.S. monetary policy normalization on Korean financial markets and capital accounts. The U.S. monetary policy is represented by the federal funds rate, term premium and credit spread. During the U.S. monetary contraction period of 2004 to 2006, changes in the federal funds rate presented negative pressure on Korean financial markets. The changes in federal funds rate also led to a simultaneous contraction in inward and outward capital flows. However, the effects of a federal funds rate shock has been reduced since 2015. On the other hand, the effects of U.S. term premiums is getting stronger after the period of quantitative easing (QE). The influence of the U.S. credit spread also significantly increased after the global financial crisis. Simulation results show that a rise in the U.S. credit spread, which can be triggered by a contractionary monetary policy, can pose a larger adverse impact on the Korean economy than a rise in the federal funds rate itself. As for capital flows, a U.S. monetary policy contraction causes an outflow of foreign investment, but the repatriation of overseas investment by Korean residents can offset this outflow.

A Study on Social Value Creation in Social Enterprise by Sector - Focusing on Social Enterpreise in Incheon (업종별 사회적기업의 사회적가치 창출에 관한 현황 연구 - 인천의 사회적기업을 중심으로)

  • Yong-Gu kim;Jae Ho Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.1119-1126
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    • 2023
  • This study measured the social value of social economy enterprises in Incheon Metropolitan City using the Social Value Index (SVI) developed by the Korea Social Enterprise Promotion Agency. The results showed that the social value orientation of the business activities of SSEs averaged 9.3 out of 15 points, and their innovation efforts were 8.0 out of 10 points. The average monetary and non-monetary social contribution efforts of SSEs was 5.1 out of 10. When comparing the average sales and social value scores by industry, the manufacturing sector shows that social enterprises have higher average sales and social value orientation of business activities, but lower social return efforts. Social work facility management and business support services have high average sales, but low social value orientation of business activities and efforts to make monetary or non-monetary social contributions. On the other hand, education services; arts, sports, and leisure-related services; and publishing, video, broadcasting, communication, and information services have lower average revenues but higher social value orientation of business activities. These SVI indicators are well utilized by local governments, but not yet by the central government. In the future, governments and public institutions should reflect the differences between sectors when formulating policies for social enterprises.

History of The Legal Developments of Corporations in Saudi Arabia

  • Alzhrani, Abdulrahman AA
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.420-424
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    • 2022
  • The Arab Automotive Company was the first corporation in Saudi Arabia and was founded in 1928. Since then, the number of Saudi corporations had increased. In 1985, Tadawul (The Saudi Stock Exchange ) was instituted under the supervision of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) and the base value of the index was 1000. This decision came as a response to accelerated growth in the number of Saudi corporations which had increased during the 1970s as the Saudi's economy developed.