• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.115-143
• /
• 2023

In this paper, we address how the monetary authority should react to financial market status and exchange rate movements in a small open economy New Keynesian model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between savers and borrowers. We show that the small economy with financial frictions is more susceptible to the exogenous shocks under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. The small economy experiences a more prolonged and deeper economic recession under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange rate regime. The monetary policy taking into account external finance premium is better than the interest rate rule without considering the financial market status.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.1-44
• /
• 2011

Terms of trade shocks have been considered one of the main driving forces causing business cycle fluctuations in small open economies. Despite their importance in business cycles of small open economies, it is hard to find a serious study in existing literature investigating their implications on monetary policy under a small open economy. Considering it, this paper studies what form of monetary policy rule is the most adequate for a small open economy where terms of trade shocks are dominant factors in generating its business cycle fluctuations. For this purpose, various implementable monetary policy rules frequently analyzed in existing literature are compared in terms of social welfare levels which they can provide for the economy respectively. Main results of this paper can be summarized as follows. First, for a small open economy where terms of trade shocks are main driving forces of its business cycle fluctuations, the nontradable goods price inflation targeting can provide higher level of social welfare than other traditional monetary policy rules such as the CPI inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate regime. Second, the social welfare improvement of the non-tradable goods price inflation targeting is more apparent when export goods price shocks are more important than import goods price shocks.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.337-370
• /
• 2018

This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.301-335
• /
• 2014

In this paper, we consider a small open economy under the New Keynesian model with unemployment of Gal$\acute{i}$ (2011a, b) to discuss the design of the monetary policy. Our findings can be summarized in three parts. First, even with the existence of unemployment, the optimal policy is to minimize variance of domestic price inflation, wage inflation, and the output gap when both domestic price and wage are sticky. Second, stabilizing unemployment rate is important in reducing the welfare loss incurred by both technology and labor supply shocks. Therefore, introducing the unemployment rate as an another argument into the Taylor-rule type interest rate rule will be welfare-enhancing. Lastly, controlling CPI inflation is the best option when the policy is not allowed to respond to unemployment rate. Once the unemployment rate is controlled, however, stabilizing power of CPI inflation-based Taylor rule is diminished.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.189-203
• /
• 1992

Any money model should address the most important phenomenon of a monetary economy, which is the phenomenon of the rate of return dominance. Even if the holding returns on financial or nonfinancial assets are higher than the rate of return on fiat money holding, which is typically zero, people still hold and use money. In a period of accelerating inflation, number of dominating assets increases continuously, yet people continue to hold and use money. Wallace's (1980) overlapping generations model cannot address the rate of return dominance phenomenon. His model does not capture the mediun of exchange role of fiat money. In this paper, an overlapping types model of fiat money is constructed, in which different types of consumers have different preferences on different types of goods, are endowed with different types of goods, are located at seperated regions, and live for only two periods. In this model, people hold and use money despite the dominating assets, even if inflation accelates. Money in this case serves as a pure medium of exchange, whereas in Wallace's model, money serves as a pure store of value, and money disappears if a dominating asset exists. An interesting feature of the overlapping types model presented in this paper is that money does not provide a cheap approximation to an idealized and efficient real allocation. A monetary economy is always superior to a nonmonetary economy, because money helps overcome the incompleteness of the overlapping types friction. In a monetary economy, however, a pareto optimal allocation cannot always be achieved, because money cannot always overcome the overlapping types friction itself. Therefore, with the criterion of optimality of real allocations, the monetary economy is more optimal than a nonmonetary economy but less optimal than a complete Arrow-Debreu economy. This feature has important implications on macro modelling. Because of the difficulty in introducing money into a macro model in an essential and endogenous manner as in the overlapping types model of this paper, a macro model typically ignores money and studies real allocations without the money factor. The possible inefficiencies of a monetary economy, relative to a complete real Arrow-Debreu economy, may indicate differences in real allocations between the two models.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.9
• /
• pp.263-269
• /
• 2022

The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 along with the slow and unstable recovery of the global economy have raised concerns about the impact of global uncertainty on the macroeconomics of the countries. The paper used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the impact of global uncertainty shocks on Vietnam's economy from the period 2008-2022. We found that Vietnam's output dropped following the shock of global uncertainty, the peak was in the third month, and lasted for one year. Inflation in Vietnam had a rapid downturn in the first month, peaked in the seventh month, and took a long time to cease. When the economy experienced the shock of increased global uncertainty, Vietnam's policy interest rate was adjusted downward. Additionally, we included a long-term interest rate to consider the overall impact of monetary policy into account. A decreasing trend was also found with this rate. The global uncertainty shock effects acted as the aggregate demand shocks, reducing output and inflation as the uncertainty increases and vice versa, thus monetary policy can be used to regulate Vietnam's economy to deal with negative shocks without the trade-offs between output and inflation as aggregate supply shocks.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.145-154
• /
• 2020

The paper aims to investigate the interactions between rule of law, economic growth and the shadow economy in 18 selected transition economies. This study uses annual data over the period 2002-2015 for 18 transition countries to estimate the effects of rule of law and other factors on the size of shadow economy. The transition country group is classified based on International Monetary Fund resources and is selected on the basis of the availability of data. The data examined in this research are derived from the World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators project and Working Paper from International Monetary Fund. This study employs GMM method. The results show that the economic growth indicators have negative and statistically significant impact on the shadow economy. Additionally, these results also reveal that in transition countries the size of shadow economy is negatively related to the quality of rule of law. However, the findings of this research also point out that there are positive relationships between inflation, public expenditure and the size of shadow economy. Hence the results from this study suggest that the size of shadow economy could be controlled by improving the effectiveness of rule of law and the growth of economy particularly in transition countries.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.33-49
• /
• 2017

This article can see the analysis of the monetary market of Russia at the present stage, its main segments. An assessment is given to the regulation of mechanism by liquidity, the transactions of the Bank of Russia on the provision of liquidity and on absorption of liquidity, the transaction of fixed action and the transaction in the public market are analyzed. To determine the tendency of development of the monetary market and its segments. In the work using the methods of multivariate statistics, the tools of financial mathematics. To be analyzed the amount of data from the 2015 -2016 year, the 2013 year. (daily data). Hypothesis 1. The dynamics of the money market of Russia at the present stage of development of domestic economy is rather stable. Hypothesis 2.The many transactions of regulation to decrease the liquidity of by monetary movement, the control function. Also in the article consider the contour of the financial transaction. This article reveals the theoretical bases of analysis of profitability of credit operations.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.73-97
• /
• 2021

China has experienced many structural changes in the process of economic development over the past three decades. Using a time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations, this study investigates whether such structural changes in, especially tools and operational aims of monetary policy, affect the monetary transmission mechanism. We find that impulse responses of output growth and inflation to monetary shocks have substantially increased and then reversed to decrease around 2005-2006. This time variation is mainly caused by changes in the monetary transmission mechanism, i.e., the manner in which main macroeconomic variables respond to policy shocks, rather than by changes in volatilities of exogenous shocks. The result implies that aggressive monetary policy to facilitate economic growth in the developing economies may be legitimized, unless it causes inflation seriously.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.1-26
• /
• 2010

This paper empirically examines whether Korean monetary policy is independent of U.S. monetary policy during the post-crisis period in which capital account is liberalized and floating exchange rate regime is adopted and during the pre-crisis period in which capital mobility is restricted and tightly managed exchange rate regime is adopted. Before capital account liberalization, monetary autonomy can be achieved in view of the trillema, even under tightly managed exchange rate regime, as capital mobility is restricted. On the other hand, for the period after capital account liberalization, monetary autonomy can be also achieved in view of the trillema, as exchange rate stability is given up. Securing monetary autonomy, however, may not be easy under liberalized capital account for a small open economy like Korea. Huge capital movements can generate excessive instability in foreign exchange and asset markets. Strengthened international economic linkages may also be another factor to prevent monetary policy from being independent. Using block-exogenous structural VAR model, the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on Korean economy are examined. Empirical results show that Korean monetary policy is not independent of U.S. monetary policy for both periods before and after capital account liberalization. For the period after capital account liberalization, Korea does not seem to have implemented floating exchange rate policy in practice, which may lead Korean monetary policy to be dependent on U.S. monetary policy. For the period after capital account liberalization, portfolio flows respond dramatically to the U.S. monetary policy, which may also keep Korean monetary policy from being independent.