• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model prediction

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The Anti-obesity Effects of Bangpungtongseong-san and Daesiho-tang: A Study Protocol of Randomized, Double-blinded Clinical Trial (방풍통성산 및 대시호탕의 항비만효과 분석: 단일기관 무작위배정 이중맹검 임상시험 프로토콜)

  • Oh, Jihong;Shim, Hyeyoon;Cha, Jiyun;Kim, Ho Seok;Kim, Min Ji;Ahn, Eun Kyung;Lee, Myeong-Jong;Lee, Jun-Hwan;Kim, Hojun
    • Journal of Korean Medicine for Obesity Research
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of Bangpungtongseong-san (Fangfengtongsheng-san, BTS) and Daesiho-tang (Dachaihu-tang, DST) on weight loss and improvement in lipid metabolism and glucose metabolism. Furthermore, we intend to develop a prediction model for drug effects through the analysis of the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), gut-microbiota, and the expression of immune-related biomarkers. Methods: This study is a single-center, randomized, double-blind, parallel-design clinical trial. One hundred twenty-eight participants will be assigned to the BTS group (n=64) and DST group (n=64). Both groups will be administered 4 g medication three times a day for up to 2 weeks. The primary outcomes is weight loss. The secondary outcomes include bioelectrical impedance analysis, waist circumstance, body mass index, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, triglyceride, insulin resistance. The exploratory outcomes include 3-day dietary recall, food frequency questionnaire, quality of life questionnaire, gut microbiota analysis, immune biomarkers analysis, and SNP analysis. Assessment will be made at baseline and at week 4, 8, and 12. Conclusions: This protocol will be implemented by approval of the Institutional Review Board of Dongguk University. The results of this trial will provide a systematic evidence for the treatment of obesity and enable more precise herbal medicine prescriptions.

The Study of Statistical Optimization of MTBE Removal by Photolysis(UV/H2O2) (광분해반응을 통한 MTBE 제거에 대한 통계적 최적화 연구)

  • Chun, Sukyoung;Chang, Soonwoong
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2011
  • This study investigate the use of ultraviolet(UV) light with hydrogen peroxide($H_2O_2$) for Methyl Tert Butyl Ether(MTBE) degradation in photolysis reactor. The process in general demands the generation of OH radicals in solution at the presence of UV light. These radicals can then attack the MTBE molecule and it is finally destroyed or converted into a simple harmless compound. The MTBE removal by photolysis were mathematically described as the independent variables such as irradiation intensity, initial concentration of MTBE and $H_2O_2$/MTBE ratio, and these were modeled by the use of response surface methodology(RSM). These experiments were carried out as a Box-Behnken Design(BBD) consisting of 15 experiments. Regression analysis term of Analysis of Variance(ANOVA) shows significantly p-value(p<0.05) and high coefficients for determination values($R^2$=94.60%) that allow satisfactory prediction of second-order regression model. And Canonical analysis yields the stationery point for response, with the estimate ridge of maximum responses and optimal conditions for Y(MTBE removal efficiency, %) are $x_1$=25.75 W of irradiation intensity, $x_2$=7.69 mg/L of MTBE concentration and $x_3$=11.04 of $H_2O_2$/MTBE molecular ratio, respectively. This study clearly shows that RSM is available tool for optimizing the operating conditions to maximize MTBE removal.

Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values of Financial Ratios (재무비율의 극단치에 대한 통계적 분석)

  • Joo, Jihwan
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.247-268
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    • 2021
  • Investors mainly use PER and PBR among financial ratios for valuation and investment decision-making. I conduct an analysis of two basic financial ratios from a statistical perspective. Financial ratios contain key accounting numbers which reflect firm fundamentals and are useful for valuation or risk analysis such as enterprise credit evaluation and default prediction. The distribution of financial data tends to be extremely heavy-tailed, and PER and PBR show exceedingly high level of kurtosis and their extreme cases often contain significant information on financial risk. In this respect, Extreme Value Theory is required to fit its right tail more precisely. I introduce not only GPD but exGPD. GPD is conventionally preferred model in Extreme Value Theory and exGPD is log-transformed distribution of GPD. exGPD has recently proposed as an alternative of GPD(Lee and Kim, 2019). First, I conduct a simulation for comparing performances of the two distributions using the goodness of fit measures and the estimation of 90-99% percentiles. I also conduct an empirical analysis of Information Technology firms in Korea. Finally, exGPD shows better performance especially for PBR, suggesting that exGPD could be an alternative for GPD for the analysis of financial ratios.

Analysis of influential factors of cyanobacteria in the mainstream of Nakdong river using random forest (랜덤포레스트를 이용한 낙동강 본류의 남조류 발생 영향인자 분석)

  • Jung, Woo Suk;Kim, Sung Eun;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the main influencing factors of the occurrence of cyanobacteria at each of the eight Multifunctional weirs were derived using a random forest, and a categorical prediction model based on a Algal bloom warning system was developed. As a result of examining the importance of variables in the random forest, it was found that the upstream points were directly affected by weir operation during the occurrence of cyanobacteria. This means that cyanobacteria can be managed through efficient security management. DO and E.C were indicated as major influencers in midstream. The midstream section is a section where large-scale industrial complexes such as Gumi and Gimcheon are concentrated as well as the emissions of basic environmental facilities have a great influence. During the period of heatwave and drought, E.C increases along with the discharge of environmental facilities discharged from the basin, which promotes the outbreak of cyanobacteria. Those monitoring sites located in the middle and lower streams are areas that are most affected by heat waves and droughts, and therefore require preemptive management in preparation for the outbreak of cyanobacteria caused by drought in summer. Through this study, the characteristics of cyanobacteria at each point were analyzed. It can provide basic data for policy decision-making for customized cyanobacteria management.

Long Range Forecast of Garlic Productivity over S. Korea Based on Genetic Algorithm and Global Climate Reanalysis Data (전지구 기후 재분석자료 및 인공지능을 활용한 남한의 마늘 생산량 장기예측)

  • Jo, Sera;Lee, Joonlee;Shim, Kyo Moon;Kim, Yong Seok;Hur, Jina;Kang, Mingu;Choi, Won Jun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.391-404
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    • 2021
  • This study developed a long-term prediction model for the potential yield of garlic based on a genetic algorithm (GA) by utilizing global climate reanalysis data. The GA is used for digging the inherent signals from global climate reanalysis data which are both directly and indirectly connected with the garlic yield potential. Our results indicate that both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts reasonably capture the inter-annual variability of crop yields with temporal correlation coefficients significant at 99% confidence level and superior categorical forecast skill with a hit rate of 93.3% for 2 × 2 and 73.3% for 3 × 3 contingency tables. Furthermore, the GA method, which considers linear and non-linear relationships between predictors and predictands, shows superiority of forecast skill in terms of both stability and skill scores compared with linear method. Since our result can predict the potential yield before the start of farming, it is expected to help establish a long-term plan to stabilize the demand and price of agricultural products and prepare countermeasures for possible problems in advance.

Development of online drone control management information platform (온라인 드론방제 관리 정보 플랫폼 개발)

  • Lim, Jin-Taek;Lee, Sang-Beom
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.193-198
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    • 2021
  • Recently, interests in the 4th industry have increased the level of demand for pest control by farmers in the field of rice farming, and the interests and use of agricultural pest control drones. Therefore, the diversification of agricultural control drones that spray high-concentration pesticides and the increase of agricultural exterminators due to the acquisition of national drone certifications are rapidly developing the agricultural sector in the drone industry. In addition, as detailed projects, an effective platform is required to construct large-scale big data due to pesticide management, exterminator management, precise spraying, pest control work volume classification, settlement, soil management, prediction and monitoring of damages by pests, etc. and to process the data. However, studies in South Korea and other countries on development of models and programs to integrate and process the big data such as data analysis algorithms, image analysis algorithms, growth management algorithms, AI algorithms, etc. are insufficient. This paper proposed an online drone pest control management information platform to meet the needs of managers and farmers in the agricultural field and to realize precise AI pest control based on the agricultural drone pest control processor using drones and presented foundation for development of a comprehensive management system through empirical experiments.

Establishment of a Nondestructive Analysis Method for Lignan Content in Sesame using Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (근적외선분광(NIRS)을 이용한 참깨의 lignan 함량 비파괴 분석 방법 확립)

  • Lee, Jeongeun;Kim, Sung-Up;Lee, Myoung-Hee;Kim, Jung-In;Oh, Eun-Young;Kim, Sang-Woo;Kim, MinYoung;Park, Jae-Eun;Cho, Kwang-Soo;Oh, Ki-Won
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.67 no.1
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2022
  • Sesamin and sesamolin are major lignan components with a wide range of potential biological activities of sesame seeds. Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) is a rapid and non-destructive analysis method widely used for the quantitative determination of major components in many agricultural products. This study was conducted to develop a screening method to determine the lignan contents for sesame breeding. Sesamin and sesamolin contents of 482 sesame samples ranged from 0.03-14.40 mg/g and 0.10-3.79 mg/g with an average of 4.93 mg/g and 1.74 mg/g, respectively. Each sample was scanned using NIRS and calculated for the calibration and validation equations. The optimal performance calibration model was obtained from the original spectra using partial least squares (PLS). The coefficient of determination in calibration (R2) and standard error of calibration (SEC) were 0.963 and 0.861 for sesamin and 0.875 and 0.292 for sesamolin, respectively. Cross-validation results of the NIRS equation showed an R2 of 0.889 in the prediction for sesamin and 0.781 for sesamolin and a standard error of cross-validation (SECV) of 1.163 for sesamin and 0.417 for sesamolin. The results showed that the NIRS equation for sesamin and sesamolin could be effective in selecting high lignan sesame lines in early generations of sesame breeding.

Evaluation of the future monthly groundwater level vulnerable period using LSTM model based observation data in Mihostream watershed (LSTM을 활용한 관측자료 기반 미호천 유역 미래 월 단위 지하수위 관리 취약 시기 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Beom;Agossou, Amos;Yang, Jeong-Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.481-494
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    • 2022
  • This study proposed a evaluation of the monthly vulnerable period for groundwater level management in the Miho stream watershed and a technique for evaluating the vulnerable period for future groundwater level management using LSTM. Observation data from groundwater level and precipitation observation stations in the Miho stream watershed were collected, LSTM was constructed, predicted values for precipitation and groundwater levels from 2020 to 2022 were calculated, and future groundwater management was evaluated when vulnerable. In order to evaluate the vulnerable period of groundwater level management, the correlation between groundwater level and precipitation was considered, and weights were calculated to consider changes caused by climate change. As a result of the evaluation, the Miho stream watershed showed high vulnerability to underground water management in February, March, and June, and especially near the Cheonan Susin observation well, the vulnerability index for groundwater level management is expected to deteriorate in the future. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the evaluation of the vulnerable period of groundwater level management and the derivation of preemptive countermeasures to the problem of groundwater resources in the basin by presenting future prediction techniques using LSTM.

Distribution and Prediction Modeling of Snake Roadkills in the National Parks of South Korea: Odaesan National Park (오대산국립공원 내 뱀류 로드킬 분포현황 및 발생예측 모델링)

  • Kim, Seok-Bum;Park, Il-Kook;Park, Daesik
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.460-467
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we collected snake roadkill data from 2006 to 2017 and developed a species distribution model to identify the pattern of snake roadkill and predict the potential hotspot of snake roadkill in the Odaesan National Park of South Korea. During the study period, snake roadkills occurred most frequently on the road, which passes through between forest and stream at an altitude of about 600 m. The modeling result showed that the occurrence probability of snake roadkill was high on a road with a gentle slope at a distance of 25 m from the stream and an altitude of 600 m. The most susceptible regions for snake roadkill in the Odaesan National Park were located on National Route 6, about 2.2 km and 11.7 km away from the southern border of the park, and on Local Road 446, 3.44 km away from the southern border of the park. The results of this study suggest that providing alternative basking places and eco-corridors and installing protection fences that block the inflow of snakes into roads, preferentially around roads and streams at an altitude lower than 700 m would be an effective way of reducing snake roadkill in the Odaesan National Park.

A Study on the Prediction of Yard Tractors Required by Vessels Arriving at Container Terminal (컨테이너터미널 입항 선박별 야드 트랙터 소요량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Hyun-Jun;Shin, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2021
  • Currently, the shipping and port industries are implementing strategies to improve port processing capabilities through the expansion and efficient operation of port logistics resources to survive fierce competition with rapidly changing trends. The calculation of the port's processing capacity is determined by the loading and unloading equipment installed at the dock, and the port's processing capacity can be improved through various methods, such as additional deployment of logistics resources or efficient operation of resources in use. However, it is difficult to expect an improvement effect in a short period of time because the additional deployment of logistics resources is clearly limited in time is clear. Therefore, it is a feasible way to find an efficient operation method for resources being used to improve processing capacity. Domestic ports are also actively promoting informatization and digitalization with the development of the 4th industrial revolution technology. However, the calculation of the number of Y/T (Yard Tractor) assignments in the current unloading process depends on expert experience, and related previous studies also focus on the allocations of Y/T or Calculation of the total number of Y/T required. Therefore, this study analyzed the factors affecting the number of Y/T allocations using the loading and unloading information of incoming ships, and based on this, cluster analysis, regression analysis, and deep neural network(DNN) model were used.