• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model prediction

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Bigdata Analysis of Fine Dust Theme Stock Price Volatility According to PM10 Concentration Change (PM10 농도변화에 따른 미세먼지 테마주 주가변동 빅데이터 분석)

  • Kim, Mu Jeong;Lim, Gyoo Gun
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2020
  • Fine dust has recently become one of the greatest concerns of Korean people and has been a target of considerable efforts by governments and local governments. In the academic world, many researches have been carried out in relation to fine dust, but the research on the economic field has been relatively few. So we wanted to know how fine dust affects the economy. Big data of PM10 concentration for fine dust and fine dust theme stock price were collected for five years from 2013 to 2017. Regression analysis was performed using the linear regression model, the generalized least squares method. As a result, the change in the fine dust concentration was found to have a effect on the related theme stocks' price. When the fine dust concentration increased compared to the previous day, the fine dust theme stocks' price also showed a tendency to increase. Also, according to the analysis of stock price change from 2013 to 2017 based on fine dust theme stocks, companies with large regression coefficients were changed every year. Among them, the regression coefficients of Monalisa were repeatedly high in 2014, 2015, 2017, Samil Pharmaceutical in 2015, 2016 and 2017, and Welcron in 2016 and 2017, and the companies were judged to be sensitive to the concentration of fine dust. The companies that responded the most in the past 5 years were Wokong, Welcron, Dongsung Pharmaceutical, Samil Pharmaceutical, and Monalisa. If PM2.5 measurement data are accumulated enough, it would be meaningful to compare and analyze PM2.5 concentration with independent variables. In this study, only the fine dust concentration is used as an independent variable. However, it is expected that a more clear and well-explained result can be found by adding appropriate additional variables to increase the explanatory power.

Atmospheric Turbulence Simulator for Adaptive Optics Evaluation on an Optical Test Bench

  • Lee, Jun Ho;Shin, Sunmy;Park, Gyu Nam;Rhee, Hyug-Gyo;Yang, Ho-Soon
    • Current Optics and Photonics
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2017
  • An adaptive optics system can be simulated or analyzed to predict its closed-loop performance. However, this type of prediction based on various assumptions can occasionally produce outcomes which are far from actual experience. Thus, every adaptive optics system is desired to be tested in a closed loop on an optical test bench before its application to a telescope. In the close-loop test bench, we need an atmospheric simulator that simulates atmospheric disturbances, mostly in phase, in terms of spatial and temporal behavior. We report the development of an atmospheric turbulence simulator consisting of two point sources, a commercially available deformable mirror with a $12{\times}12$ actuator array, and two random phase plates. The simulator generates an atmospherically distorted single or binary star with varying stellar magnitudes and angular separations. We conduct a simulation of a binary star by optically combining two point sources mounted on independent precision stages. The light intensity of each source (an LED with a pin hole) is adjustable to the corresponding stellar magnitude, while its angular separation is precisely adjusted by moving the corresponding stage. First, the atmospheric phase disturbance at a single instance, i.e., a phase screen, is generated via a computer simulation based on the thin-layer Kolmogorov atmospheric model and its temporal evolution is predicted based on the frozen flow hypothesis. The deformable mirror is then continuously best-fitted to the time-sequenced phase screens based on the least square method. Similarly, we also implement another simulation by rotating two random phase plates which were manufactured to have atmospheric-disturbance-like residual aberrations. This later method is limited in its ability to simulate atmospheric disturbances, but it is easy and inexpensive to implement. With these two methods, individually or in unison, we can simulate typical atmospheric disturbances observed at the Bohyun Observatory in South Korea, which corresponds to an area from 7 to 15 cm with regard to the Fried parameter at a telescope pupil plane of 500 nm.

Determination of Baicalin and Baicalein Contents in Scutellaria baicalensis by NIRS (근적외선분광분석기를 이용한 황금(Scutellaria baicalensis)의 baicalin 및 baicalein 함량 분석)

  • Kim, Hyo-Jae;Kim, Se-Young;Lee, Young-Sang;Kim, Yong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.286-292
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    • 2014
  • Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) is a rapid and accurate analytical method for determining the composition of agricultural products and feeds. This study was conducted to measure baicalin, baicalein, and wogonin contents in Scutellaria baicalensis by using NIRS system. Total 63 samples previously were analyzed by HPLC, which showed baicalin, baicalein, and wogonin contents ranging 4.56 to 13.59%, 0.28 to 5.54%, and 0.50 to 1.63% with an average of 9.66%, 2.09% and 0.52%, respectively. Each sample was scanned by NIRS and calculated for calibration and validation equation. A calibration equation calculated by modified partial least squares(MPLS) regression technique was developed in which the coefficient of determination for baicalin, baicalein, and wogonin content was 0.958, 0.944, and 0.709, respectively. Each calibration equation was applied to validation set that was performed with the remaining samples not included in the calibration set, which showed high positive correlation both in baicalin and baicalein content file. In case of wogonin, the prediction model was needed more accuracy because of low $R^2$ value in validation set. These results demonstrate that the developed NIRS equation can be practically used as a rapid screening method for quantification of baicalin and baicalein contents in Scutellaria baicalensis.

Risk-Targeted Seismic Performance of Steel Ordinary Concentrically Braced Frames Considering Seismic Hazard (지진재해도를 고려한 철골 보통중심가새골조의 위험도기반 내진성능)

  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Suk-Jae;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.371-380
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    • 2017
  • The risk-targeted seismic design concept was first included in ASCE/SEI 7-10 to address problems related to the uniform-hazard based seismic concept that has been constructed without explicitly considering probabilistic uncertainties in the collapse capacities of structures. However, this concept is not yet reflected to the current Korean building code(KBC) because of insufficient strong earthquake data occurred at the Korean peninsula and little information on the collapse capacities of structures. This study evaluates the risk-targeted seismic performance of steel ordinary concentrically braced frames(OCBFs). To do this, the collapse capacities of prototype steel OCBFs are assessed with various analysis parameters including building locations, building heights and soil conditions. The seismic hazard curves are developed using an empirical spectral shape prediction model that is capable of reflecting the characteristics of earthquake records. The collapse probabilities of the prototype steel OCBFs located at the Korean major cities are then evaluated using the risk integral concept. As a result, analysis parameters considerably influence the collapse probabilities of steel OCBFs. The collapse probabilities of taller steel OCBFs exceed the target seismic risk of 1 percent in 50 years, which the introduction of the height limitation of steel OCBFs into the future KBC should be considered.

Study of the Molecular Reorientation in Ammonium Sulfate by Neutron Scattering

  • Kim, Huhn-Jun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.306-321
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    • 1972
  • Molecular reorientation in (NH$_4$)$_2$SO$_4$, has been studied by cold neutron scattering. For T=300$^{\circ}$K data, the isolated quasielastic spectra and form-factors at various scattering angles are compared with four reorientational models based on SKOLD theory. Front these, it is concluded that the NH$_4$ions are performing either 3-fold four axes or 2-fold three axes reorientation with $\tau$$_{c}$=2.0$\times$10$^{-11}$ sec. The temperature dependence of f. is studied over 100$^{\circ}$K-413$^{\circ}$K and for the high-temperature phase, the widths of composite spectra are compared with the results from NMR relaxation measurements. All the results have shown that the neutron scattering method is capable of giving detalis of the reorientational modes in solids and therefore some discussions are given on the application of this method. A study of the form-factor is applied for NH$_4$I (Phase I) by comparing the measurement with the calculation based on free rotation approximation and proposed a reorientation model of NH$_4$ ions in the octahedral potential cage with $\tau$$_{c}$$\leq$10$^{-12}$ sec. Also a brief theoretical prediction for the effect of reorientational motions on the inelastic spectrum is discussed.sed.

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External validation of IBTR! 2.0 nomogram for prediction of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence

  • Lee, Byung Min;Chang, Jee Suk;Cho, Young Up;Park, Seho;Park, Hyung Seok;Kim, Jee Ye;Sohn, Joo Hyuk;Kim, Gun Min;Koo, Ja Seung;Keum, Ki Chang;Suh, Chang-Ok;Kim, Yong Bae
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.139-146
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: IBTR! 2.0 nomogram is web-based nomogram that predicts ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR). We aimed to validate the IBTR! 2.0 using an external data set. Materials and Methods: The cohort consisted of 2,206 patients, who received breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy from 1992 to 2012 at our institution, where wide surgical excision is been routinely performed. Discrimination and calibration were used for assessing model performance. Patients with predicted 10-year IBTR risk based on an IBTR! 2.0 nomogram score of <3%, 3%-5%, 5%-10%, and >10% were assigned to groups 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. We also plotted calibration values to observe the actual IBTR rate against the nomogram-derived 10-year IBTR probabilities. Results: The median follow-up period was 73 months (range, 6 to 277 months). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.607, showing poor accordance between the estimated and observed recurrence rate. Calibration plot confirmed that the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram predicted the 10-year IBTR risk higher than the observed IBTR rates in all groups. High discrepancies between nomogram IBTR predictions and observed IBTR rates were observed in overall risk groups. Compared with the original development dataset, our patients had fewer high grade tumors, less margin positivity, and less lymphovascular invasion, and more use of modern systemic therapies. Conclusions: IBTR! 2.0 nomogram seems to have the moderate discriminative ability with a tendency to over-estimating risk rate. Continued efforts are needed to ensure external applicability of published nomograms by validating the program using an external patient population.

Study on SCS CN Estimation and Flood Flow Characteristics According to the Classification Criteria of Hydrologic Soil Groups (수문학적 토양군의 분류기준에 따른 SCS CN 및 유출변화특성에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Seung-Seop;Park, Ro-Sam;Ko, Soo-Hyun;Song, In-Ryeol
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.775-784
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    • 2006
  • In this study, CN value was estimated by using detailed soil map and land cover characteristic against upper basin of Kumho watermark located on the upper basin of Kumho river and the hydrologic morphological characteristic factors were extracted from the basin by using the DEM document. Also the runoff analysis was conducted by the WMS model in order to study how the assumed CN value affects the runoff characteristic. First of all, as a result of studying the soil type in this study area, mostly D type soil was Identified by the application of the 1987 classification criteria. However, by that in 1995, B type soil and C type soil were distributed more widely in that area. When CN value was classified by the 1995 classification criteria, it was estimated lower than in 1987, as a result of comparing the estimated CNs by those standars. Also it was assumed that CN value was underestimated when the plan for Geum-ho river maintenance was drawn up. As a result of the analysis of runoff characteristic, the pattern of generation of the classification criteria of soil groups appeared to be similar, but in the case of the application of the classification criteria in 1995, the peak rate of runoff was found to be smaller on the whole than in the case of the application of the classification criteria in 1987. Also when the statistical data such as the prediction errors, the mean squared errors, the coefficient of determination and other data emerging from the analysis, was looked over in total, it seemed appropriate to apply the 1995 classification criteria when hydrological soil classification group was applied. As the result of this study, however, the difference of the result of the statistical dat was somewhat small. In future study, it is necessary to follow up evidence about soil application On many more watersheds and in heavy rain.

Proposal of Construction System to prevent Dongbari Collapse by applying IT Convergence Technology (IT 융합기술을 적용한 동바리 붕괴사고 방지를 위한 건설공사 시스템 제안)

  • Jeon, Kyong-Deck;Shin, Seung-Jung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2020
  • Safety accidents, called industrial accidents in construction work, are causing a lot of casualties, property damage and social controversy in the event of an accident, causing the construction to lose public confidence. The risk of safety accidents at construction sites may continue to increase as the construction of high-rise, large-scale, and multi-purpose complex buildings has increased in recent years. In particular, the most frequently constructed apartment construction among reinforced concrete buildings is designed and constructed with a wall-like structure with no beams for each floor, while the lower floors are made of lamen with columns and beams. As a result, the transfer beam or transfer slab to withstand the upper load is installed on the upper part of the Ramen structure, so the system Dongbari, which is installed as a temporary material during concrete laying construction, may collapse at any time during plowing and curing. The purpose of this study is to apply IT convergence technology to prevent the collapse of the system Dongbari during concrete installation, and to apply many of the variables that may occur during construction on a case-by-case basis to check the stability of the system Dongbari and to propose a model of the anti-conducting prediction system.

Teachers' Recognition of Victims of School Bullying Using Data from the Adolescents' Mental Health and Problem Behavior Screening Questionnaire-II Standardization Study in Korea (청소년정서행동발달검사 표준화 연구 자료를 활용한 교사의 학교폭력 피해자 인지도)

  • Hwang, Jun-Won;Bhang, Soo-Young;Yoo, Han-Ik K.;Kim, Ji-Hoon;Kim, Bong-Seog;Ahn, Dong-Hyun;Suh, Dong-Su;Cho, Soo-Churl;Bahn, Geon-Ho;Lee, Young-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2012
  • Objectives : The current study was conducted in order to investigate teachers' recognition of school bullying using a nationwide database of adolescents in middle and high school in Korea. Methods : Students in the 7th to 12th grades at 23 secondary schools participated in the current study during the fall of 2009. Subjects completed the self-report form of the Adolescent Mental Health and Problem Behavior Screening Questionnaire-II (AMPQ-II) and Symptom Checklist-90 Revised (SCL-90-R). In addition, relevant teachers used the teachers' rating scale of the AMPQ-II to report their students' status. Differences in the number of bullied students between teachers' recognition and students' report were explored. Results : A total of 2270 subjects provided relevant responses to the questionnaire. While the one-month prevalence of victimization according to students' self-reports was 28.9%, the recognized prevalence by teachers was only 10.6%. For prediction of the presence of school bullying according to students' self reports on the AMPQ-II, item 7 of the teachers' report on the AMPQ-II showed a sensitivity of 16%, a specificity of 92%, a positive predictability of 44%, a negative predictability of 72%, a false positive rate of 8%, a false negative rate of 84%, and an accuracy of 69%, respectively. No significant differences in subscores of students' self reports of the AMPQ-II and SCL-90-R were observed between bullied students who were recognized by teachers and those who were not recognized. In stepwise discriminant analysis, classification of teachers' item 2 and item 7 on the AMPQ-II with respect to school bullying according to students' reports showed an accuracy of 63.4%. Using this model, 75.2% of non-victimized subjects were classified correctly, while only 35.2% of victimized subjects were classified correctly. Conclusion : Despite the high prevalence in Korea, teachers' recognition of school violence among their students remains low. Pre-professional and continuing education to improve teachers' understanding of school bullying and knowledge of effective classroom-based prevention activities should be encouraged.

Identification of yearly variation in Hwacheon dam inflow using trend analysis and hydrological sensitivity method (경향성 분석과 수문학적 민감도 기법을 이용한 화천댐 유입량의 연별 변동량 규명)

  • Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.425-438
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    • 2018
  • Existing studies that analyze the causes and effects of water circulation use mostly rainfall - runoff models, which requires much effort in model development, calibration and verification. In this study, hydrological sensitivity analysis which can separate quantitatively the impacts by natural factors and anthropogenic factor was applied to the Hwacheon dam upper basin from 1967 to 2017. As a result of using various variable change point detection methods, 1999 was detected as a statistically significant change point. Especially, based on the hydrological sensitivity analysis using 5 Budyko based functions, it was estimated that the average inflow reduction amount by Imnam dam construction was $1.890\;billion\;m^3/year$. This results in this study was slightly larger than the those by existing researchers due to increase of rainfall and decrease of Hwacheon dam inflow. In future, it was suggested that effective water management measures were needed to resolve theses problems. Especially, it can be suggested that the monthly or seasonal analysis should be performed and also the prediction of discharge for future climate change should be considered to establish resonable measures.