• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.800-807
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• 2009

The limited public funds available for infrastructure projects have led governments to consider private entities' participation in long-term contracts for finance, construction, and operation of these projects to share risks and rewards between the public and the private. Because these projects have complicated risk evolutions, diverse contractual forms for each project member to hedge risks involved in a project are necessary. In light of this, Build-Operate-Transfer(BOT) model is considered as effective to accomplish Public Private Partnerships(PPPs) with a characteristic of an ownership-reversion. In BOT projects, the government has used such an incentive system as minimum revenue guarantee(MRG) agreement to attract the private's participation. Although this agreement turns out critical in success of BOT project, there still exist problematic issues in a financial feasibility analysis since the traditional capital budgeting theory, Net Present Value(NPV) analysis, has failed to evaluate the contingent characteristic of MRG agreement. The purpose of this research is to develop real option model based on option pricing theory so as to provide a theoretical framework in valuing MRG agreement in BOT projects. To understand the applicability of the model, the model is applied to the example of the BOT toll road project and the results are compared with that by NPV analysis. Finally, we found that the impact of the MRG agreement is significant on the project value. Hence, the real option model can help the government establish better BOT policies and the developer make appropriate bidding strategies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.1 s.94
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• pp.49-59
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• 2007

This study has examined the allocation of risk in Korea's private provided Infrastructure(PPI) with the following contents (1) Developing a quantitative risk allocation model for Korea's PPI and (2) examining the implication of changes in the minimum revenue guarantees (MRG) clause of government legislation using the developed empirical model. The model of this study adopts and extends H. Yamaguchi's model developed in 2002. To investigate Korea's actual risk allocation deals, the author incorporated the MRG framework. The payment related to the MRG is indeterminable. Hence. the average MRG rate was calculated using probabilistic risk analysis. The risk allocation model is applied to the two eases to validate the model and evaluate the project's VFM(Value for Money). As the revenue guarantee rate is lowered, the government subsidies are increased. This in turn worsens VFM. The same relationship is true when the revenue guarantee Period is shortened.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.606-609
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• 2008

Traditionally, the feasibility of the private investment is determined by NPV(Net Presented Value) based on DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) and the volume of government's subsidiary without quantifying the effect of overturn share ratio and MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee), these variables which can seriously effect on the economic feasibility. One of the most important reasons why these variables are not underestimated is that the quantifying methods are insufficiently or so complicatedly studied to apply practically the real project. Therefore, this study suggests the modified binominal option model to estimate the overturn share ratio and MRG and estimates how much these variables impact the private investment. Also, these results are helpful to estimate how much the government's subsidiary can be reduced.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.53-63
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• 2012

Korean Public-Private Partnership, mainly implemented using BTO (Build-Transfer-Operate) and BTL (Build-Transfer-Lease) methods, has contributed in increasing benefits of the people by providing the needed public services in a timely and efficient manner. It has also induced flexible national fiscal management. However, in addition to the repeal of the Minimum Revenue Guarantee (MRG) program in 2009, changes in business environment including recent financial crisis aggravated financial situation in pursing PPPs, resulting in significant contraction of BTO projects. Therefore, the new methods are to be suggested and applied to overcome this situation. This paper seeks to find ways to apply "Mixed Model," characterized as the compound of BTO and BTL, two different implementation methods of PPPs, as an enhanced burden-sharing mechanism.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.121-131
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• 2009

This study will estimate the fair return on private participants' investments on BTO type PPI (Private Public Infrastructure) projects using the data from past BTO projects in Korea. In the past, the real returns of $6%\sim9%$ were provided to private participants. The results of this study show that those returns were too high compared with the estimated fair returns, especially for projects with the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) by the government. Moreover, the excess portion of the return over the fair return becomes even larger when there is a demand forecast bias. In reality, most of the BTO projects have far lower actual revenues than the initial forecasted revenue in concession agreements. This phenomenon implies that BTO projects have a tendency of overly forecasting revenues. If so, the value of the minimum revenue guarantee becomes larger, and therefore, the fair return to private participants should decrease. It is hoped that this study helps future BTO projects' concession agreements between the government and private participants to become more fair from the perspectives of risk and return profiles.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.778-784
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to figure out the differences of the inflow rates of Sewage Treatment Plants (STP), invested by public fund or public-private partnership (PPP). This paper finds that the average ratio of sewage inflow according to facility capacities (medium and small scale STP) was either nearly below 30% or above 100% in the first year. As the size of STP increased, there was decrease in the accuracy of demand assumption. This was because the operation time when the ratio of sewage inflow was uniform was different according to the size of STP, whereby the time was short when the STP were small. The design average ratio of sewage inflow was 10% larger than the real average ratio; this was considered overdesigned. In the case of a plant built by the PPP scheme, the average ratio of inflow of the STP before an abolition of MRG was larger than after the abolition of MRG. This may be explained by moral hazard from too much reliance on MRG. After the abolition of MRG, the demand risk of PPP was shifted from a PPP project to a conventional project.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.41-82
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• 2017

This paper studies the risks associated with local finance in Korea by identifying the financial status of each local government, including the financial burdens of PPP projects, and examined governmental future burdens related to PPP projects. We reviewed all fiscal burdens associated with projects, such as, for BTL (Build-Transfer-Lease) types of projects, facility lease and operating expenses, and, for the BTO (Build-Transfer-Operate) types of projects, construction subsidies that are paid at the construction stage, MRG (Minimum Revenue Guarantee) payments and the government's share of payment. Furthermore, we compared the annual expenditures of local governments on PPP projects against their annual budgets and checked if the 2% ceiling rule could be applied.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.1572-1581
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• 2011

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment has been active on transport infrastructure. But investment of transport infrastructure has more risks than others due to overforecast of transport demand for ensuring project validity, and cost uncertainty arising from financial crisis, commodity prices and so on. In the case of Incheon international airport express, after 2 years and 6 months, Incheon international airport express is opened, Korail take over equity stake in private investor due to the problems of MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee) be contracted with private investor. Not only that, in other case of Yong-in light rail, it is ongoing for legal disputes between Yong-in local government and private investor on account of opening delaying. On current Investment Assessment System of Transport Infrastructure, Risk Management system on investment of transport infrastructure is inadequate because Sensitivity Analysis in economic efficiency have been performed on the simple method which only changes benefits, expense and social discount rate. For this reason, this study analyze risks for investment of transport infrastructure demand forecast, and rise to the management practice for every particular item.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.135-150
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• 2010

This paper focuses on finding out which covenants are different among the concession agreements of Korean BTO projects and how these influenced IRR(Internal Rate of Return). That is, to figure out the political and economical determinants of IRR by analyzing the concession agreements which are the basic contract of implementing projects. As IRR is an index of profitability, so spread is an indicator of risk to collect debts. That's the reason why the analysis of spread is included. For the empirical analysis, the data of concession agreements for 75 projects and financial models are used. These 75 concession agreements are contracted from 1995 to 2008. The dependent variables are after tax nominal IRR and the spread of long term interest rates of 75 BTO projects. The independent variables are project's proceeding factors, the feasibility variables, the variables related to financial character and the variables related to covenants or the government's policy. The analysis shows that IRR has been influenced by the equity level of financial investors, the national government managed projects, the projects with minimum revenue guarantee (MRG), etc. And the equity level of financial investors, the national government managed projects and the implementation of supplementary project have an effect on spread also.