• 제목/요약/키워드: Methodology for Prediction

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전력 부하 패턴 자동 예측을 위한 분류 기법 (Classification Methods for Automated Prediction of Power Load Patterns)

  • ;박진형;이헌규;류근호
    • 한국정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보과학회 2008년도 한국컴퓨터종합학술대회논문집 Vol.35 No.1 (C)
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    • pp.26-30
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    • 2008
  • Currently an automated methodology based on data mining techniques is presented for the prediction of customer load patterns in long duration load profiles. The proposed our approach consists of three stages: (i) data pre-processing: noise or outlier is removed and the continuous attribute-valued features are transformed to discrete values, (ii) cluster analysis: k-means clustering is used to create load pattern classes and the representative load profiles for each class and (iii) classification: we evaluated several supervised learning methods in order to select a suitable prediction method. According to the proposed methodology, power load measured from AMR (automatic meter reading) system, as well as customer indexes, were used as inputs for clustering. The output of clustering was the classification of representative load profiles (or classes). In order to evaluate the result of forecasting load patterns, the several classification methods were applied on a set of high voltage customers of the Korea power system and derived class labels from clustering and other features are used as input to produce classifiers. Lastly, the result of our experiments was presented.

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소수력발전소의 성능예측 기법 (A Study on the Performance Prediction Technique for Small Hydro Power Plants)

  • 박완순;이철형
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the methodology to analyze flow duration characteristics and performance prediction technique for small hydro power(SHP) Plants and its application. The flow duration curve can be decided by using monthly rainfall data at the most of the SHP sites with no useful hydrological data. It was proved that the monthly rainfall data can be characterized by using the cumulative density function of Weibull distribution and Thiessen method were adopted to decide flow duration curve at SHP plants. And, the performance prediction technique has been studied and development. One SHP plant was selected and performance characteristics was analyzed by using the developed technique, Primary design specfications such as design flowrate, plant capacity, operational rate and annual electricity production for the SHP plant were estimated, It was found that the methodology developed in this study can be a useful tool to predict the performance of SHP plants and candidate sites in Korea.

초임계 탄화수소 항공유의 열역학적 물성치 예측 기법 연구 (Investigation on a Prediction Methodology of Thermodynamic Properties of Supercritical Hydrocarbon Aviation Fuels)

  • 황성록;이형주
    • 한국분무공학회지
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.171-181
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    • 2021
  • This study presents a prediction methodology of thermodynamic properties by using RK-PR Equation of State in a wide range of temperature and pressure conditions including both sub-critical and super-critical regions, in order to obtain thermophysical properties for hydrocarbon aviation fuels and their products resulting from endothermic reactions. The density and the constant pressure specific heat are predicted in the temperature range from 300 to 1000 K and the pressure from 0.1 to 5.0 MPa, which includes all of the liquid and gas phases and the super-critical region of three representative hydrocarbon fuels, and then compared with those data obtained from the NIST database. Results show that the averaged relative deviations of both predicted density and constant pressure specific heat are below 5% in the specified temperature and pressure conditions, and the major sources of the errors are observed near the saturation line and the critical point of each fuel.

선박의 Springing 진동 현상과 예측 방법 (Vibrational Behavior of Ship Springing and Its Prediction)

  • 이수목;정건화
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2001년도 추계학술대회논문집 II
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    • pp.1055-1060
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    • 2001
  • Springing phenomena of ships is introduced with its concept, research history and approach methodology. Being a hydroelasticity problem, non-linear vibration and stochastic process, springing was formulated and modeled in vibration point of view separating hydrodynamic force into system properties and excitation force. Both RAO and response spectrum as well as wave spectrum were presented as a case study of springing analysis for a flexible vessel with wide breadth. The effect of advance speed, heading angle and loading condition were investigated as parametric study. The results and observations showed availability of analysis for the prediction of the ship springing behavior.

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셀룰로오스 아세테이트 모노 필터의 경도 예측 (Prediction of the % Hardness Curve of Cellulose Acetate Mono Filters)

  • 김종열;김수호;신창호;박진원;임성진;김정렬;이문수
    • 한국연초학회지
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2006
  • The objective of the present study is to induct the regression equation for the hardness prediction of cellulose acetate filter which was manufactured by the domestic cellulose acetate tow manufacturer. As a result of our study, the hardness of filter was increased with increasing the plasticizer content and packing density as major factors affecting to the filter hardness. As a result which was obtained by the three dimensional response surface methodology in STATISTIC A program, the hardness prediction value well fitted with experiment result on the high plasticizer content. To make up for the this equation, the new modified fraction of solid factors which was contained the mono denier factor was introduced to the hardness prediction equation, and this third regression equation which was sufficient for the wide plasticizer content, was obtained by the three dimensional response surface methodology in STATISTICA. This results indicated that the third regression equation which was obtained this study was applicable for the hardness prediction of cellulose acetate filter which was manufactured by the domestic cellulose acetate tow manufacturer.

프로그레시브 메타모델을 이용한 3세대 초고장력강판 적용 차체 부품의 스프링백 예측 방법론 (Methodology of Springback Prediction of Automotive Parts Applied 3rd Generation AHSS Using the Progressive Meta Model)

  • 윤재익;오규환;이석렬;유지홍;김태정
    • 소성∙가공
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    • 제29권5호
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the methodology of the springback prediction of automotive parts applied 3rd generation AHSS was investigated using the response surface model analysis based on a regression model, and the meta model analysis based on a Kriging model. To design the learning data set for constructing the springback prediction models, and the experimental design was conducted at three levels for each processing variable using the definitive screening designs method. The hat-shaped member, which is the basic shape of the member parts, was selected and the springback values were measured for each processing type and processing variable using the finite element analysis. When the nonlinearity of the variables is small during the hat-shaped member forming, the response surface model and the meta model can provide the same processing parameter. However, the accuracy of the springback prediction of the meta model is better than the response surface model. Even in the case of the simple shape parts forming, the springback prediction accuracy of the meta model is better than that of the response surface model, when more variables are considered and the nonlinearity effect of the variables is large. The efficient global optimization algorithm-based Kriging is appropriate in resolving the high computational complexity optimization problems such as developing automotive parts.

확률적 포장 공용성 예측모델 개발 방법론 (Methodology of a Probabilistic Pavement Performance Prediction Model Based on the Markov Process)

  • 유평준;이동현
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제4권4호
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2002
  • 포장유지관리체계는 신설포장의 공용 이후 포장 유지보수를 실시함에 있어 기술적으로 타당하고 경제적으로 효율적인 보수전락을 적용하는 것을 목표로 한다. 이를 위해서는 신뢰성 있는 포장공용성 예측모델을 필요로 한다. 본 연구에서는 마르코프 체인 이론에 기초한 확률적 포장공용성 예측 시스템을 제안하고, 아스팔트 포장으로의 적용상 문제점 등을 기술하였다. 본 연구 결과로서 아스팔트 포장의 공용성 예측을 위한 포장상태 전이행렬을 정의하였으며, 정량적인 포장공용 수명평가 결과를 제시하였다.

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지역별,관리구별 중장기 부하밀도 예측 프로그램의 개발 (Development of Program for prediction of Mid-long term Load density in region and district respectively.)

  • 최상봉;김대경;정성환;배정효;하태현;이현구
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.307-309
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents development of program for mid-tong term load forecasting in region and district respectively. In this program, at first, the region is classified by KEPCO branch which can be analyzed in light of curl·elation between load characteristics and economic indicator and then, prediction for load density in each region was performed by scenario of economic, population and city plan. Secondly, prediction for load density in each district is performed by methodology which is based on land use method. Finally efficiency for prediction work in each KEPCO branch could be identified by applying the developed program to the Seoul city in real.

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Design ofa wideband HTS antenna

  • Hwang, Jong-Sun;Park, Sung-Jin;Han, Byoung-Sung;Chung, Dong-Chul
    • 한국초전도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국초전도학회 2000년도 High Temperature Superconductivity Vol.X
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    • pp.197-200
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we present a novel methodology for a wideband HTS antenna of finite length placed on a dielectric substrate. A methodology used in this work is based on a moment-method techniques with Green function singularity when the field point is in the source triangle. The designed resonance frequency of our HTS antenna is 11.85 GHz. The return loss is -26 dB. The bandwidth obtained is a significant 10.6 %. Experimental measurements for a HTS antenna designed in X-band are shown to agree well with the simulated prediction.

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