• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.129-139
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• 2009

Development of an artificial neural network model was presented to predict the daily maximum $SO_2$ concentration in the urban-industrial area of Ulsan. The network model was trained during April through September for 2000-2005 using $SO_2$ potential parameters estimated from meteorological and air quality data which are closely related to daily maximum $SO_2$ concentrations. Meteorological data were obtained from regional modeling results, upper air soundings and surface field measurements and were then used to create the $SO_2$ potential parameters such as synoptic conditions, mixing heights, atmospheric stabilities, and surface conditions. In particular, two-stage clustering techniques were used to identify potential index representing major synoptic conditions associated with high $SO_2$ concentration. Two neural network models were developed and tested in different conditions for prediction: the first model was set up to predict daily maximum $SO_2$ at 5 PM on the previous day, and the second was 10 AM for a given forecast day using an additional potential factors related with urban emissions in the early morning. The results showed that the developed models can predict the daily maximum $SO_2$ concentrations with good simulation accuracy of 87% and 96% for the first and second model. respectively, but the limitation of predictive capability was found at a higher or lower concentrations. The increased accuracy for the second model demonstrates that improvements can be made by utilizing more recent air quality data for initialization of the model.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.263-276
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• 2022

The observation error of satellite radiation data that assimilated into the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) was diagnosed by applying the Hollingsworth and Lönnberg and Desrozier techniques commonly used. The magnitude and correlation of the observation error, and the degree of contribution for the satellite radiance data were calculated. The observation errors of the similar device, such as Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A shows different characteristics. The model resolution accounts for only 1% of the observation error, and seasonal variation is not significant factor, either. The observation error used in the KIM is amplified by 3-8 times compared to the diagnosed value or standard deviation of first-guess departures. The new inflation value was calculated based on the correlation between channels and the ratio of background error and observation error. As a result of performing the model sensitivity evaluation by applying the newly inflated observation error of ATMS, the error of temperature and water vapor analysis field were decreased. And temperature and water vapor forecast field have been significantly improved, so the accuracy of precipitation prediction has also been increased by 1.7% on average in Asia especially.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.447-458
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• 2020

This study presents the K-means clustering analysis-based classification of the meteorological patterns affecting the occurrence of high PM₁₀ concentration in the southeastern region of the Korean peninsula for the last five years (2014-2018). Regional differences in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam related to high PM₁₀ episodes, were clarified through the statistical comparison study using synoptic scale meteorological elements using NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/FNL (Final Operational Global Analysis) re-analysis meteorological data. Meteorological patterns were classified into a total of five categories (C1-C5). The incidence of each cluster was 24.8% (C1), 21.3% (C2), 20.4% (C3), 17.3% (C4), and 16.2% (C5), respectively. The high PM₁₀ concentration in the southeastern region resulted from long and short range transports (C1, C3, C5) from outside of the region, and the emissions (C2, C4) inside the region. In the high PM₁₀ episodes in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, meteorological characteristics such as different geopotential height and wind speed at 500 hPa in each cluster and the change in the location of high pressure over Korean Peninsula is strongly associated with the dispersion of PM₁₀ around inventories in the region and the tendency of long-range transportation of PM₁₀ emitted from outside of region.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.123-131
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• 2011

This study proposes a model for road surface temperature prediction on basis of the heat-energy balance equation between atmosphere and road surface. The overall model is consisted of two types of modules: 1) Canopy 1 is used to describe heat transfer between soil surface and atmosphere; and 2) Canopy 2 can reflect the characteristics of pavement type. Input data used in the model run is obtained from the Korea Meteorological For model validation, the observed and predicted surface temperature data are compared using data collected on MoonEui Bridge along CheongWon-Sangju Expressway, and the comparison is made on winter and other seasons separately. Analysis results show that average difference between two temperatures lies within ${\pm}2^{\circ}C$ which is considered as appropriate from a micrometeorology point of view. The model proposed in this paper can be adopted as a useful tool in practical applications for winter maintenance. This study being a fundamental research is anticipated to be a starting point for further development of robust surface road temperature prediction algorithms.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.37-51
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• 2018

In this study, we investigate the performance of Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) in Korea Meteorological Administration on the relationship between El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and East Asian climate for the period of 1991~2010. It is found that the GloSea5 has a great prediction skill of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ whose anomaly correlation coefficients of $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ indices are over 0.96 during winter. The eastern Pacific (EP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and the central Pacific (CP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ are considered and we analyze for EP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$, which is well simulated in GloSea5. The analysis period is divided into the developing phase of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ summer (JJA(0)), mature phase of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ winter (D(0)JF(1)), and decaying phase of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ summer (JJA(1)). The GloSea5 simulates the relationship between precipitation and temperature in East Asia and the prediction skill for the East Asian precipitation and temperature varies depending on the El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ phase. While the precipitation and temperature are simulated well over the equatorial western Pacific region, there are biases in mid-latitude region during the JJA(0) and JJA(1). Because the low level pressure, wind, and vertical stream function are simulated weakly toward mid-latitude region, though they are similar with observation in low-latitude region. During the D(0)JF(1), the precipitation and temperature patterns analogize with observation in most regions, but there is temperature bias in inland over East Asia. The reason is that the GloSea5 poorly predicts the weakening of Siberian high, even though the shift of Aleutian low is predicted. Overall, the predictability of precipitation and temperature related to El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ in the GloSea5 is considered to be better in D(0)JF(1) than JJA(0) and JJA(1) and better in ocean than in inland region.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.29 no.B
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• pp.181-186
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• 2009

The wind data measured from automated weather stations (AWS) at complex terrains in Korea was used to predict the wind velocity at nearby sites that are several kilometers away. The ten-minute averaged wind data was measured at a height of 10 meters. A commercial CFD code, WindSIM, based on the weighted averaged Navier-Stokes equation was employed. The results were compared with the data measured using meteorological masts (MM) at a height of 40 meters. The predictions using the AWS data and WindSIM showed good agreements with the measured data.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.13-28
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• 2012

The $PM_{10}$ concentration data is useful for indentifying intensity and a transport way of Asian dust. However, it is difficult to identify them properly due to the limited spatial resolution and coverage. Therefore, a methodology to estimate $PM_{10}$ concentration using visibility data obtained from synoptic observation was developed. To derive the converting function, correlation between visibility and $PM_{10}$ concentration is investigated using visibility and $PM_{10}$ concentration data observed at 20 stations in Korea from 2005 to 2009. To minimize bias due to atmospheric moisture, data with higher relative humidity over a critical value were eliminated while deriving $PM_{10}$-visibility relationship. As a result, an exponentially decreasing function of visibility is obtained under the condition that relative humidity is less than 82%. Verification of the visibility converting function to $PM_{10}$ concentration was carried out for the dust cases in 2010. It was found that spatial distributions of $PM_{10}$ calculated by visibility are in good agreement with the observed $PM_{10}$ distribution, especially for the strong dust cases in 2010. And correlation between the derived and observed $PM_{10}$ concentration was 0.63. We applied the function to obtain distributions of $PM_{10}$ concentration over North Korea, in which concentration data are not available, and compared them with satellite derived dust index, IODI distributions for dust cases in 2010. It is shown that the visibility function estimates quite similar patterns of dust concentration with IODI image, which suggests that it can contribute for prediction by indentifying transport route of Asian dust.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.1
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• pp.107-112
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• 2015

This paper introduces an evolutionary nonlinear regression based compensation technique for the short-range prediction of wind speed using AWS(Automatic Weather Station) data. Development of an efficient MOS(Model Output Statistics) is necessary to correct systematic errors of the model, but a linear regression based MOS is hard to manage an irregular nature of weather prediction. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear and symbolic regression method using GP(Genetic Programming) is suggested for a development of MOS wind forecast guidance. Also FCM(Fuzzy C-Means) clustering is adopted to mitigate bias of wind speed data. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation by a GP based nonlinear MOS for 3 days prediction of wind speed in South Korean regions. This method is then compared to the UM model and has shown superior results. Data for 2007-2009, 2011 is used for training, and 2012 is used for testing.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.489-510
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• 2021

In this paper, we propose an algorithm for detecting convective initiation (CI) using GEO-KOMPSAT-2A/advanced meteorological imager data. The algorithm identifies clouds that are likely to grow into convective clouds with radar reflectivity greater than 35 dBZ within the next two hours. This algorithm is developed using statistical and qualitative analysis of cloud characteristics, such as atmospheric instability, cloud top height, and phase, for convective clouds that occurred on the Korean Peninsula from June to September 2019. The CI algorithm consists of four steps: 1) convective cloud mask, 2) cloud object clustering and tracking, 3) interest field tests, and 4) post-processing tests to remove non-convective objects. Validation, performed using 14 CI events that occurred in the summer of 2020 in Korean Peninsula, shows a total probability of detection of 0.89, false-alarm ratio of 0.46, and mean lead-time of 39 minutes. This algorithm can be useful warnings of rapidly developing convective clouds in future by providing information about CI that is otherwise difficult to predict from radar or a numerical prediction model. This CI information will be provided in short-term forecasts to help predict severe weather events such as localized torrential rainfall and hail.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.97-106
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• 2024

The seasonal forecast skill of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northern Hemisphere from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Seasonal Forecast System version 6 (GloSea6) hindcast has been verified for the period 1993 to 2016. The operational climate prediction system at KMA was upgraded from GloSea5 to GloSea6 in 2022, therefore further validation was warranted for the seasonal predictability and variability of this new system for TC forecasts. In this study, we examine the frequency, track density, duration, and strength of TCs in the North Indian Ocean, the western North Pacific, the eastern North Pacific, and the North Atlantic against the best track data. This methodology follows a previous study covering the period 1996 to 2009 published in 2020. GloSea6 indicates a higher frequency of TC generation compared to observations in the western North Pacific and the eastern North Pacific, suggesting the possibility of more TC generation than GloSea5. Additionally, GloSea6 exhibits better interannual variability of TC frequency, which shows relatively good correlation with observations in the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific. Regarding TC intensity, GloSea6 still underestimates the minimum surface pressures and maximum wind speeds from TCs, as is common among most climate models due to lower horizontal resolutions. However, GloSea6 is likely capable of simulating slightly stronger TCs than GloSea5, partly attributed to more frequent 6-hourly outputs compared to the previous daily outputs.