• Title/Summary/Keyword: Meteorological Modeling

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A Statistical Correction of Point Time Series Data of the NCAM-LAMP Medium-range Prediction System Using Support Vector Machine (서포트 벡터 머신을 이용한 NCAM-LAMP 고해상도 중기예측시스템 지점 시계열 자료의 통계적 보정)

  • Kwon, Su-Young;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Man-Il
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.415-423
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    • 2021
  • Recently, an R-based point time series data validation system has been established for the statistical post processing and improvement of the National Center for AgroMeteorology-Land Atmosphere Modeling Package (NCAM-LAMP) medium-range prediction data. The time series verification system was used to compare the NCAM-LAMP with the AWS observations and GDAPS medium-range prediction model data operated by Korea Meteorological Administration. For this comparison, the model latitude and longitude data closest to the observation station were extracted and a total of nine points were selected. For each point, the characteristics of the model prediction error were obtained by comparing the daily average of the previous prediction data of air temperature, wind speed, and hourly precipitation, and then we tried to improve the next prediction data using Support Vector Machine( SVM) method. For three months from August to October 2017, the SVM method was used to calibrate the predicted time series data for each run. It was found that The SVM-based correction was promising and encouraging for wind speed and precipitation variables than for temperature variable. The correction effect was small in August but considerably increased in September and October. These results indicate that the SVM method can contribute to mitigate the gradual degradation of medium-range predictability as the model boundary data flows into the model interior.

Evaluation of water quality in the Sangsa Lake under climate change by combined application of HSPF and AEM3D (HSPF 와 AEM3D를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 상사호 유역의 수질오염 부하 및 댐 내 수질 변화 특성 분석)

  • Goh, Nayeon;Kim, Jaeyoung;Seo, Dongil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.877-886
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    • 2022
  • This study was carried out to analyze how the flow and water quality of the Sangsa Lake (juam control basin) change according to future climate change and what countermeasures are needed. Aquatic Ecosystem Model) was used in conjunction. As climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of AR5 (5th Assessment Report) according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. For the climate change scenario, detailed data on the Sangsa Lake basin were used by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and after being evaluated as a correction and verification process for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021, the present, 2025-2036, 2045- The summer period from June to August and the winter period from December to February were analyzed separately for each year by dividing it into 2056 and 2075-2086. RCP 8.5 was higher than RCP 4.5 as an arithmetic mean for the flow rate of the watershed of the superior lake for the entire simulation period, and TN and TP also showed a tendency to be higher at RCP 4.5. However, in RCP 8.5, the outflow of pollutants decreased during the dry season and the outflow of pollutants increased during the summer, indicating that the annual pollutant outflow was concentrated during the flood season, and it is analyzed that countermeasures are needed.

Stochastic Self-similarity Analysis and Visualization of Earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula (한반도에서 발생한 지진의 통계적 자기 유사성 분석 및 시각화)

  • JaeMin Hwang;Jiyoung Lim;Hae-Duck J. Jeong
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2023
  • The Republic of Korea is located far from the boundary of the earthquake plate, and the intra-plate earthquake occurring in these areas is generally small in size and less frequent than the interplate earthquake. Nevertheless, as a result of investigating and analyzing earthquakes that occurred on the Korean Peninsula between the past two years and 1904 and earthquakes that occurred after observing recent earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula, it was found that of a magnitude of 9. In this paper, the Korean Peninsula Historical Earthquake Record (2 years to 1904) published by the National Meteorological Research Institute is used to analyze the relationship between earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. In addition, the problem solved through this paper was the first to investigate the relationship between earthquake data occurring on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. As a result of measuring the degree of self-similarity of earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula using three quantitative estimation methods, the self-similarity parameter H value (0.5 < H < 1) was found to be above 0.8 on average, indicating a high degree of self-similarity. And through graph visualization, it can be easily figured out in which region earthquakes occur most often, and it is expected that it can be used in the development of a prediction system that can predict damage in the event of an earthquake in the future and minimize damage to property and people, as well as in earthquake data analysis and modeling research. Based on the findings of this study, the self-similar process is expected to help understand the patterns and statistical characteristics of seismic activities, group and classify similar seismic events, and be used for prediction of seismic activities, seismic risk assessments, and seismic engineering.

A Study on Health Impact Assessment and Emissions Reduction System Using AERMOD (AERMOD를 활용한 건강위해성평가 및 배출저감제도에 관한 연구)

  • Seong-Su Park;Duk-Han Kim;Hong-Kwan Kim;Young-Woo Chon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-105
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aims to quantitatively determine the impact on nearby risidents by selecting the amount of chemicals emitted from the workplace among the substances subject to the chemical emission plan and predicting the concentration with the atmospheric diffusion program. Method: The selection of research materials considered half-life, toxicity, and the presence or absence of available monitoring station data. The areas discharged from the materials to be studied were selected as the areas to be studied, and four areas with floating populations were selected to evaluate health risks. Result: AERMOD was executed after conducting terrain and meteorological processing to obtain predicted concentrations. The health hazard assessment results indicated that only dichloromethane exceeded the threshold for children, while tetrachloroethylene and chloroform appeared at levels that cannot be ignored for both children and adults. Conclusion: Currently, in the domestic context, health hazard assessments are conducted based on the regulations outlined in the "Environmental Health Act" where if the hazard index exceeds a certain threshold, it is considered to pose a health risk. The anticipated expansion of the list of substances subject to the chemical discharge plan to 415 types by 2030 suggests the need for efficient management within workplaces. In instances where the hazard index surpasses the threshold in health hazard assessments, it is judged that effective chemical management can be achieved by prioritizing based on considerations of background concentration and predicted concentration through atmospheric dispersion modeling.

Comparative assessment of sequential data assimilation-based streamflow predictions using semi-distributed and lumped GR4J hydrologic models: a case study of Namgang Dam basin (준분포형 및 집중형 GR4J 수문모형을 활용한 순차자료동화 기반 유량 예측 특성 비교: 남강댐 유역 사례)

  • Lee, Garim;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.9
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    • pp.585-598
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    • 2024
  • To mitigate natural disasters and efficiently manage water resources, it is essential to enhance hydrologic prediction while reducing model structural uncertainties. This study analyzed the impact of lumped and semi-distributed GR4J model structures on simulation performance and evaluated uncertainties with and without data assimilation techniques. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter (PF) methods were applied to the Namgang Dam basin. Simulation results showed that the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) index was 0.749 for the lumped model and 0.831 for the semi-distributed model, indicating improved performance in semi-distributed modeling by 11.0%. Additionally, the impact of uncertainties in meteorological forcings (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) on data assimilation performance was analyzed. Optimal uncertainty conditions varied by data assimilation method for the lumped model and by sub-basin for the semi-distributed model. Moreover, reducing the calibration period length during data assimilation led to decreased simulation performance. Overall, the semi-distributed model showed improved flood simulation performance when combined with data assimilation compared to the lumped model. Selecting appropriate hyper-parameters and calibration periods according to the model structure was crucial for achieving optimal performance.

Analysis of the Changesin PM2.5 Concentrations using WRF-CMAQ Modeling System: Focusing on the Fall in 2016 and 2017 (WRF-CMAQ 모델링 시스템을 활용한 PM2.5 농도변동 원인 분석: 2016년과 2017년의 가을철을 중심으로)

  • Nam, Ki-Pyo;Lim, Yong-Jae;Park, Ji-Hoon;Kim, Deok-Rae;Lee, Jae-Bum;Kim, Sang-Min;Jung, Dong-Hee;Choi, Ki-Chul;Park, Hyun-Ju;Lee, Han-Sol;Jang, Lim-Seok;Kim, Jeong-Soo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.215-231
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    • 2018
  • It was analyzed to identify the cause of $PM_{2.5}$ concentration changes for the fall in 2016 and 2017 in South Korea using ground measurement data such as meterological variables and $PM_{2.5}$, AOD from GOCI satellite, and WRF-CMAQ modeling system. The result of ground measurement data showed that the $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations for the fall in 2017 decreased by 12.3% ($3.0{\mu}g/m^3$) compared to that of 2016. The difference of $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations between 2016 and 2017 mainly occurred for 11 Oct. - 20 Oct. (CASE1) and 15 Nov. - 19 Nov. (CASE2) when weather conditions were difficult to long-range transport from foreign regions and favored atmospheric ventilation in 2017 compared to 2016. Simulated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations in 2017 decreased by 64.0% ($23.1{\mu}g/m^3$) and 35.7% ($12.2{\mu}g/m^3$) during CASE1 and CASE2, respectively. These results corresponded to the changes in observed $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations such as 53.6% for CASE1 and 47.8% for CASE2. It is implied that the changes in weather conditions affected significantly the $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations for the fall between 2016 and 2017. The contributions to decreases in $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations was assessed as 52.8% by long-range transport from foreign regions and 47.2% by atmospheric ventilation effects in domestic regions during CASE1, whereas their decreases during CASE2 were affected by 66.4% from foreign regions and 33.6% in domestic regions.

Verification and Estimation of the Contributed Concentration of CH4 Emissions Using the WRF-CMAQ Model in Korea (WRF-CMAQ 모델을 이용한 한반도 CH4 배출의 기여농도 추정 및 검증)

  • Moon, Yun-Seob;Lim, Yun-Kyu;Hong, Sungwook;Chang, Eunmi
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate the contributed concentration of each emission source to $CH_4$ by verifying the simulated concentration of $CH_4$ in the Korean peninsula, and then to compare the $CH_4$ emission used to the $CH_4$ simulation with that of a box model. We simulated the Weather Research Forecasting-Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model to estimate the mean concentration of $CH_4$ during the period of April 1 to 22 August 2010 in the Korean peninsula. The $CH_4$ emissions within the model were adopted by the anthropogenic emission inventory of both the EDGAR of the global emissions and the GHG-CAPSS of the green house gases in Korea, and by the global biogenic emission inventory of the MEGAN. These $CH_4$ emission data were validated by comparing the $CH_4$ modeling data with the concentration data measured at two different location, Ulnungdo and Anmyeondo in Korea. The contributed concentration of $CH_4$ estimated from the domestic emission sources in verification of the $CH_4$ modeling at Ulnungdo was represented in about 20%, which originated from $CH_4$ sources such as stock farm products (8%), energy contribution and industrial processes (6%), wastes (5%), and biogenesis and landuse (1%) in the Korean peninsula. In addition, one that transported from China was about 9%, and the background concentration of $CH_4$ was shown in about 70%. Furthermore, the $CH_4$ emission estimated from a box model was similar to that of the WRF-CMAQ model.

Geographic Conditions and Garden Designs of Byeol-seo Scenic Site of Gimcheon Bangcho-Pavilion and Mrs Choi's Pond (별서 명승 김천 방초정(芳草亭)과 최씨담(崔氏潭)의 입지 및 조영 특성)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2016
  • Through literature review and on-site survey of Gimcheon Bangcho pavilion(芳草亭), the features of garden design(庭園意匠) including geographic conditions, landscape modeling of Nujeong(樓亭) and Jidang(池塘, Pond), and scenic interpretations in Nujeong Jeiyoung poetry(樓亭題詠詩) have been carefully researched and the findings are presented below. Bangcho pavilion is located in a village called Wonteomaeul, which belongs to the feng shui state of golden hairpin and floating lotus. It has long been the cultural hub of communication and social interactions among the villagers. The Head House of Jeongyanggong(靖襄公宗宅), the main house(本第) of the Yeonan Yi Clan(延安李氏), is about 150m away from Bangcho pavilion, an artistic space whose landscape modeling is of the form called Nujeong. The name 'Bangcho' reflects the noble man(君子)'s determination: "I yearn for the place where honey parrots fly and the fragrant grass grow." From the two story structure of the pavilion where there is an additional floor installed to the central ondol room by a four-sided subdivision door, one can detect the aspiration of the men for pursuing an open view. One can also observe the efforts in designing the room to be used for multiple purposes from a private place to an office for periodic publication of a family lineage document called "Garyejunghae(家禮增解)". Bangcho pavilion's main sight of interest is Mrs Choi's Pond(崔氏潭), the one and only garden structure that comprises the twin round island of square pond(方池雙圓島) among the existing Jidangs in Korea. In this special Jidang, there are two coexisting islands that represent a well thought out garden facility for symbolizing conjugal affection and unyielding fidelity between master and servent(主從). In addition, the three inflows and one outflow facing the Ramcheon valley is regarded as an ideal garden design optimized for performing the function of a village bangjuk which is the site for undercurrent creation and ecological reprocessing. At present, Giant pussy willow is the only circular vegetation identified in the area of Bangcho pavilion, although this plant species is about to wither away judging from the signs of decrepitude that seems to persist for two out of three weeks. The old pine tree that appears in the 1872 Jeiyoung poetry of Byeongseon Song(宋秉璿) no longer exists. Anjae(安齋) Jang Yoo(張瑠)'s "Eight Scenary on Bangcho pavilion(芳草亭八詠)" and its expansive reproduction "Ten Scenary on Bangcho pavilion(芳草亭十景)" from Gwagang(守岡) Lee Manyoung(李晩永) depict vividly the pastoric scenery of an idyll(田園景) that stretches throughout the natural and cultural landscape of the province of Gimcheon and Guseong surrounding the Bangcho pavilion. The Bangcho pavilion sutra aims to establish Bangcho pavilion and the village of Wonteomaeul as the centre of microcosmos by dividing and allocating its scenic features according to the four seasons and times(四季四時), the eight courses(八方) and the meteorological phenomena, and it is the incarnation(顯現) of landscape perception upon the Byeol-seo Scenic site of Bangcho pavilion, the cultural hub of the region.

Dispersion of Air Pollutants from Ship Based Sources in Incheon Port (인천항의 선박오염원에서 배출된 대기오염물질의 확산)

  • Kim, Kwang-Ho;Kwon, Byung Hyuk;Kim, Min-Seong;Lee, Don-Chool
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.488-496
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    • 2017
  • Emissions of pollutants from ship-based sources are controlled by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Since pollutants emitted from ship may be dispersed to the land, controlling emissions from ships is necessary for efficient air quality management in Incheon, where exposure to ship-based pollution is frequent. It has been noted that the ratios of air pollutant emissions from coastal areas to inland areas are about 14% for NOx and 10% for SOx. The air quality of coastal urban areas is influenced by the number of ships present and the dispersion pattern of the pollutants released depending on the local circulation system. In this study, the dispersion of pollutants from ship-based sources was analyzed using the numerical California Puff Model (CALPUFF) based on a meteorological field established using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Air pollutant dispersion modeling around coastal urban regions such as Incheon should consider point and line sources emitted from both anchored and running ships, respectively. The total average NOx emissions from 82-84 ships were 6.2 g/s and 6.8 g/s, entering and leaving, respectively. The total average SOx emissions from 82-84 ships, entering and leaving, were 3.6 g/s and 5.1 g/s, respectively. The total average emissions for NOx and SOx from anchored ships were 0.77 g/s and 1.93 g/s, respectively. Due to the influence of breezes from over land, the transport of pollutants from Incheon Port to inland areas was suppressed, and the concentration of NOx and SOx inland were temporarily reduced. NOx and SOx were diffused inland by the sea breeze, and the concentration of NOx and SOx gradually increased inland. The concentration of pollutants in the area adjacent to Incheon Port was more influenced by anchored ship in the port than sea breezes. We expect this study to be useful for setting emission standards and devising air quality policies in coastal urban regions.

An Initiative Study on Relationship between Algal Blooms and Asian Dust for Regulation of Algal Blooms (조류 성장 억제를 위한 녹조 및 적조 발생과 황사의 상관관계 초기적 연구)

  • Kim, Tai-Jin;Jeong, Jaechil;Seo, Rabeol;Kim, Hyung Moh;Kim, Dae Geun;Chun, Youngsin;Park, Soon-Ung;Yi, Sehyoon;Park, Jun Jo;Lee, Jin Ha;Lee, Jay J.;Lee, Eun Ju
    • KSBB Journal
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.285-296
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    • 2014
  • Although the problems of the algal blooms have been world-widely observed in freshwater, estuary, and marine throughout the year, it is not yet certain what are the basic causes of such blooms. Consequently, it is very difficult to predict when and where algal blooms occur. The constituents of the Asian dust are in a good agreement with the elements required for the algal growth, which suggests some possible relationship between the algal blooms and the Asian dust. There have been frequently algal blooms in drinking water from rivers or lakes. However, there is no any algal blooms in upwelling waters where the Asian dust cannot penetrate into the soil due to its relatively weak settling velocity (size of particles, $4.5{\pm}1.5{\mu}m$), which implies the possible close relationship of the Asian dust with algal blooms. The present initiative study is thus intended firstly in Korea to illustrate such a relationship by reviewing typical previous studies along with 12 years of weekly iron profiles (2001~2012) and two slant culture experiments with the dissolved Asian dust. The result showed bacterial suspected colonies in the slant culture experiment that are qualitatively in a good agreement with the recent Japanese studies. Since the diatoms require cheap energy (8%) compared to other phytoplankton (100%) to synthesize their cell walls by silicate, the present results can be used to predict algal blooms by diatoms if the concentrations of iron and silicate are available during spring and fall. It can be postulated that the algal blooms occur only if the environmental factors such as light, nutrients, calm water surface layer, temperature, and pH are simultaneously satisfied with the requirements of the micronutrients of mineral ions supplied by the Asian dust as enzymatic cofactors for the rapid bio-synthesis of the macromolecules during algal blooms. Simple eco-friendly methods to regulate the algal blooms are suggested for the initial stage of blooming with limited area: 1) to cover up the water surface with black curtain and inhibit photosynthesis during the day time, 2) to blow air (20.9%) or pure oxygen into the bottom of the water and inhibit rubisco for carbon uptake and nitrate reductase for nitrogen uptake activities in algal growth during the night, 3) to eliminate the resting spores or cysts by suction of bottom sediments as deep as 5 cm to prevent the next year germinations.