• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제40권3호
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• pp.283-290
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• 2014

In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• 제51권3호
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• pp.127-134
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• 2012

Objective: To analyze the prognostic factors thought to be related with survival time after a spinal metastasis operation. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 217 patients who underwent spinal metastasis operations in our hospital from 2001 to 2009. Hematological malignancies, such as multiple myeloma and lymphoma, were excluded. The factors thought to be related with postoperative survival time were gender, age (below 55, above 56), primary tumor growth rate (slow, moderate, rapid group), spinal location (cervical, thoracic, and lumbo-sacral spine), the timing of radiation therapy (preoperative, postoperative, no radiation), operation type (decompressive laminectomy with or without posterior fixation, corpectomy with anterior fusion, corpectomy with posterior fixation), preoperative systemic condition (below 5 points, above 6 points classified by Tomita scoring), pre- and postoperative ambulatory function (ambulatory, non-ambulatory), number of spinal metastases (single, multiple), time to spinal metastasis from the primary cancer diagnosis (below 21 months, above 22 months), and postoperative complication. Results: The study cohort mean age at the time of surgery was 55.5 years. The median survival time after spinal operation and spinal metastasis diagnosis were 6.0 and 9.0 months. In univariate analysis, factors such as gender, primary tumor growth rate, preoperative systemic condition, and preoperative and postoperative ambulatory status were shown to be related to postoperative survival. In multivariate analysis, statistically significant factors were preoperative systemic condition (p=0.048) and postoperative ambulatory status (p<0.001). The other factors had no statistical significance. Conclusion: The factors predictive for postoperative survival time should be considered in the surgery of spinal metastasis patients.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.2893-2900
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• 2014

Background: Statistical methods are very important to precisely measure breast cancer patient survival times for healthcare management. Previous studies considered basic statistics to measure survival times without incorporating statistical modeling strategies. The objective of this study was to develop a data-based statistical probability model from the female breast cancer patients' survival times by using the Bayesian approach to predict future inferences of survival times. Materials and Methods: A random sample of 500 female patients was selected from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results cancer registry database. For goodness of fit, the standard model building criteria were used. The Bayesian approach is used to obtain the predictive survival times from the data-based Exponentiated Exponential Model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used to obtain the summary results for predictive inference. Results: The highest number of female breast cancer patients was found in California and the lowest in New Mexico. The majority of them were married. The mean (SD) age at diagnosis (in years) was 60.92 (14.92). The mean (SD) survival time (in months) for female patients was 90.33 (83.10). The Exponentiated Exponential Model found better fits for the female survival times compared to the Exponentiated Weibull Model. The Bayesian method is used to obtain predictive inference for future survival times. Conclusions: The findings with the proposed modeling strategy will assist healthcare researchers and providers to precisely predict future survival estimates as the recent growing challenges of analyzing healthcare data have created new demand for model-based survival estimates. The application of Bayesian will produce precise estimates of future survival times.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권9호
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• pp.3923-3926
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• 2015

Background: Lung cancer is a fatal malignancy with high mortality and short survival time. The aim of this study was to estimate survival rates of Iranian patients with lung cancer and its associate predictive factors. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on 355 patients admitted to hospitals of West Azerbaijan in the year 2007. The patients were followed up by phone calls until the end of June 2014. The survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test for comparison. The Cox's proportional hazard model was used to investigate the effect of various variables on patient survival time, including age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance, smoking status, tumor type, tumor stage, treatment, metastasis, and blood hemoglobin concentration. Results: Of the 355 patients under study, 240 died and 115 were censored. The mean and median survival time of patients was 13 and 4.8 months, respectively. According to the results of Kaplan-Meier method, 1, 2, and 3 years survival rates were 39%, 18%, and 0.07%, respectively. Based on Cox regression analysis, the risk of death was associated with ECOG group V (1.83, 95% CI: 1 Conclusions: The survival time of the patients with lung cancer is very short. While early diagnosis may improve the life expectancy effective treatment is not available.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권15호
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• pp.6445-6449
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• 2015

Background: NSCLC is a disease involving uncontrolled cell growth, which could result in metastases into nearby tissues beyond the lungs. Materials and Methods: The aim of the present study was to analyze the influence of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene expression on metastasis and survival in NSCLC patients. The present case-control study included 100 cases of NSCLC patients and 100 age and sex matched controls. EGFR gene expression was analyzed by quantitative real time PCR using serum RNA. Association with NSCLC patient survival was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: We analyzed EGFR gene expression and observed mean increased gene expression of 13.5 fold in NSCLC patients. Values reflected overall survival of patients with a median of 15.8 months in the cases of <13 fold increased gene expression vs 6.7 months with >13 fold increased EGFR gene expression (p=0.005). Distant metastatic patients with <13 fold increased EGFR gene expression had 7.9 months of median survival time while>13 fold increased EGFR gene expression had only 5 months of median survival time (p=0.03). Non metastatic patients with <13 fold increased EGFR gene expression had 18 months of median survival time as compared to only 7.1 months with >13 fold increased expression. Conclusions: Higher cell free EGFR mRNA expression may play an important role in causing distant metastases and reducing overall survival of NSCLC patients in the Indian population.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제24권5호
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• pp.871-881
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• 2011

In this paper we propose a logistic regression method to estimate the survival function and the median survival time in interval-censored data. The proposed method is motivated by the data augmentation technique with no sacrifice in augmenting data. In addition, we develop a cross validation criterion to determine the size of data augmentation. We compare the proposed estimator with other existing methods such as the parametric method, the single point imputation method, and the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator through extensive numerical studies to show that the proposed estimator performs better than others in the sense of the mean squared error. An illustrative example based on a real data set is given.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제14권12호
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• pp.7117-7120
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• 2013

Background: This study hypothesized living in a poor neighborhood decreased the cause specific survival in individuals suffering from carcinoid carcinomas. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) carcinoid carcinoma data were used to identify potential socioeconomic disparities in outcome. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socioeconomic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for carcinoid carcinomas. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze time to events and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to compare survival curves. The Cox proportional hazard method was employed for multivariate analysis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were computed to screen the predictors for further analysis. Results: There were 38,546 patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 68.1 (70.7) months. SEER stage was the most predictive factor of outcome (ROC area of 0.79). 16.4% of patients were un-staged. Race/ethnicity, rural urban residence and county level family income were significant predictors of cause specific survival on multivariate analysis, these accounting for about 5% of the difference in actuarial cause specific survival at 20 years of follow up. Conclusions: This study found poorer cause specific survival of carcinoid carcinomas of individuals living in poor and rural neighborhoods.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권10호
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• pp.4143-4145
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• 2014

Background: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Ewing sarcoma (ES) outcome data. The aim of this study was to identify and optimize ES-specific survival prediction models and sources of survival disparities. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for ES. 1844 patients diagnosed between 1973-2009 were used for this study. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a Generalized Linear Model to predict the outcome (bone and joint specific death, yes/no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. Results: The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 74.48 (89.66) months. 36% of the patients were female. The mean (S.D.) age was 18.7 (12) years. The SEER staging has the highest ROC (S.D.) area of 0.616 (0.032) among the factors tested. We simplified the 4-layered risk levels (local, regional, distant, un-staged) to a simpler non-metastatic (I and II) versus metastatic (III) versus un-staged model. The ROC area (S.D.) of the 3-tiered model was 0.612 (0.008). Several other biologic factors were also predictive of ES-specific survival, but not the socio-economic factors tested here. Conclusions: ROC analysis measured and optimized the performance of ES survival prediction models. Optimized models will provide a more efficient way to stratify patients for clinical trials.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권11호
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• pp.5735-5739
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• 2012

Background: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is an insidious tumor with poor prognosis, arising from mesothelial surfaces such as pleura, peritoneum and pericardium. We here aimed to evaluate the demographic, clinical, and radiological features of patients with MM followed in our center as well as their survival. Methods: The study included 228 patients (131 male, 97 female) who were followed up in our institution between 1993 and 2010 with the diagnosis of MM. Results: The mean age was 59.1 years in men and 58.7 years in women and the sex ratio was 1.4:1 in favor of males. Environmental asbestos exposure was present in 86% of the patients for a mean duration of $40{\pm}20$ years (range: 3-70). Pleural effusion and thoracic/abdominal pain were the most common presenting signs and symptoms (70.2% and 57.8%, respectively). One hundred-thirteen (66%) patients were treated with platinum-based combination chemotherapy (PBCT) plus supportive care (SC) and 67 (34%) patients received SC alone. The median follow-up time was 10.0 months. The median overall survival was significantly improved with PBCT plus SC compared to SC alone (11.4 vs. 5.1 months; p=0.005). The 6, 12, 18, and 24-month survival rates were significantly improved with PBCT plus SC compared to SC alone (72%, 43%, 19%, and 2% vs. 49%, 31%, 11%, and 1%). Conclusion: The survival of patients with MM improved in patients treated with PBCT. The survival advantage continued 12- and 24-month after the initial time of combination chemotherapy.

• Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2013

Purpose: Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-C and its tyrosine kinase receptor, VEGF receptor (VEGFR)-3 are recently known to have lymphangiogenic activities in various tumor types. In this study, we determined whether the expression of lymphangiogenic factors correlate with nodal metastasis or survival in a nude mouse model of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Methods: Three OSCC cells (KB, SCC4, SCC9) were xenografted into the right mandibular gland of athymic nude mice. The mice were followed for tumor development and growth, and the mice were sacrificed when they had lost more than 20% of their initial body weight, or the diameter of the induced tumor exceeds 20 mm. After necropsy, the murine tumors were examined histologically and radiologically (micro-positron emission tomography computed tomography) for regional or distant metastasis. We performed immunohistochemical assays with anti-VEGF-C, VEGFR-3, CD105, and D2-40 antibodies. Immunofluorescence double staining for LYVE-1/CD31 was also performed. To quantify the VEGF-C and VEGFR-3 level in the cancer tissue, Western blotting was performed. Finally, we determined the correlation between the degree of expression of VEGF-C/VEGFR-3 and the mean survival time. Results: OSCC tumor cells into the mandibular gland of the nude mice successfully resulted in the formation of recapitulating orthotopic tumor. Tumor cells of the induced tumor did not express VEGF-C. VEGF-C/VEGFR-3 expression was mainly distributed in the endothelial cells of the stromal area. There were no correlation between the degree of expression of VEGF-C/VEGFR-3 and the mean survival time of mice injected with different OSCC cell lines. Conclusion: An recapitulating orthotopic model of OSCC in nude mice was established, which copies the cervical nodal metastasis of human OSCC. Overexpression of lymphangiogenic factors seems to have no effect on survival of hosts in this in vivo experiment.