• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.4 s.82
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• pp.71-79
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• 2005

Existing arterial link travel time estimation methods relying on either aggregate point-based or individual section-based traffic data have their inherent limitations. This paper demonstrates the utility of data fusion for improving arterial link travel time estimation. If the data describe traffic conditions, an operator wants to know whether the situations are going better or worse. In addition, some traffic information providing strategies require predictions of what would be the values of traffic variables during the next time period. In such situations, it is necessary to use a prediction algorithm in order to extract the average trends in traffic data or make short-term predictions of the control variables. In this research. a multi-step ahead prediction algorithm using Data fusion was developed to predict a link travel time. The algorithm performance were tested in terms of performance measures such as MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MARE(mean absolute relative error), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), EC(equality coefficient). The performance of the proposed algorithm was superior to the current one-step ahead prediction algorithm.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.107-113
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• 2011

To evaluate the performance of the hydrodynamic model, we introduced 10 skill assessments that are assorted by two groups: quantitative skill assessments (Absolute Average Error or AAE, Root Mean Squared Error or RMSE, Relative Absolute Average Error or RAAE, Percentage Model Error or PME) and qualitative skill assessments (Correlation Coefficient or CC, Reliability Index or RI, Index of Agreement or IA, Modeling Efficiency or MEF, Cost Function or CF, Coefficient of Residual Mass or CRM). These skill assessments were applied and calculated to evaluate the hydrodynamic modeling at one of Florida estuaries for water level, current, and salinity as comparing measured and simulated values. We found that AAE, RMSE, RAAE, CC, IA, MEF, CF, and CRM are suitable for the error assessment of water level and current, and AAE, RMSE, RAAE, PME, CC, RI, IA, CF, and CRM are good at the salinity error assessment. Quantitative and qualitative skill assessments showed the similar trend in terms of the classification for good and bad performance of model. Furthermore, this paper suggested the criteria of the "good" model performance for water level, current, and salinity. The criteria are RAAE < 10%, CC > 0.95, IA > 0.98, MEF > 0.93, CF < 0.21 for water level, RAAE < 20%, CC > 0.7, IA > 0.8, MEF > 0.5, CF < 0.5 for current, and RAAE < 10%, PME < 10%, CC > 0.9, RI < 1.15, CF < 0.1 for salinity.

• Animal Bioscience
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.817-825
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• 2024

Objective: The aim of this study was to identify suitable polynomial regression for modeling the average growth trajectory and to estimate the relative development of the rib eye area, scrotal circumference, and morphometric measurements of Guzerat young bulls. Methods: A total of 45 recently weaned males, aged 325.8±28.0 days and weighing 219.9±38.05 kg, were evaluated. The animals were kept on Brachiaria brizantha pastures, received multiple supplementations, and were managed under uniform conditions for 294 days, with evaluations conducted every 56 days. The average growth trajectory was adjusted using ordinary polynomials, Legendre polynomials, and quadratic B-splines. The coefficient of determination, mean absolute deviation, mean square error, the value of the restricted likelihood function, Akaike information criteria, and consistent Akaike information criteria were applied to assess the quality of the fits. For the study of allometric growth, the power model was applied. Results: Ordinary polynomial and Legendre polynomial models of the fifth order provided the best fits. B-splines yielded the best fits in comparing models with the same number of parameters. Based on the restricted likelihood function, Akaike's information criterion, and consistent Akaike's information criterion, the B-splines model with six intervals described the growth trajectory of evaluated animals more smoothly and consistently. In the study of allometric growth, the evaluated traits exhibited negative heterogeneity (b<1) relative to the animals' weight (p<0.01), indicating the precocity of Guzerat cattle for weight gain on pasture. Conclusion: Complementary studies of growth trajectory and allometry can help identify when an animal's weight changes and thus assist in decision-making regarding management practices, nutritional requirements, and genetic selection strategies to optimize growth and animal performance.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.111-121
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• 2023

The influence of material composition such as aggregate types, addition of supplementary cementitious materials as well as exposed temperature levels have significant impacts on concrete residual mechanical strength properties when exposed to elevated temperature. This study is based on data obtained from literature for fly ash blended concrete produced with natural and recycled concrete aggregates to efficiently develop prediction models for estimating its residual compressive strength after exposure to high temperatures. To achieve this, an extensive database that contains different mix proportions of fly ash blended concrete was gathered from published articles. The specific design variables considered were percentage replacement level of Recycled Concrete Aggregate (RCA) in the mix, fly ash content (FA), Water to Binder Ratio (W/B), and exposed Temperature level. Thereafter, a simplified mathematical equation for the prediction of concrete's residual compressive strength using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) was developed. The relative importance of each variable on the model outputs was also determined through global sensitivity analysis. The GEP model performance was validated using different statistical fitness formulas including R², MSE, RMSE, RAE, and MAE in which high R² values above 0.9 are obtained in both the training and validation phase. The low measured errors (e.g., mean square error and mean absolute error are in the range of 0.0160 - 0.0327 and 0.0912 - 0.1281 MPa, respectively) in the developed model also indicate high efficiency and accuracy of the model in predicting the residual compressive strength of fly ash blended concrete exposed to elevated temperatures.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.73-84
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• 1992

The TIDE, finite element model for the simulation of tidal flow in shallow sea was tested for its applicability at the Saemangeum area. Several pre and post processors were developed to facilitate handling of the complicated and large amount of input and output data for the model developed. Also an operation scheme to run the model and the processors were established. As a result of calibration test using the observed data collected at 9 points within the region, linearlized friction coefficients were adjusted to be ranged 0.0027~0.0072, and water depths below the mean sea level at every nodes were changed to be increased generally by 1 meter. Comparisons of tidal velocities between the observed and the simulated for the 5 stations were made and obtained the result that the average relative error between simulated and observed tidal velocities was 11% for the maximum velocities and 22% for the minimum, and the absolute errors were less than 0.2m/sec. Also it was found that the average R.M.S. error between the velocities of observed and simulated was 0.119 m/sec and the average correlation coefficient was 0.70 showing close agreement. Another comparison test was done to show the result that R.M.S. error between the simulated and the observed tidal elevations at the 4 stations was 0.476m in average and the correlation coefficients were ranged 0.96~0.99. Though the simulated tidal circulation pattern in the region was well agreed with the observed, the simulated tidal velocities and elevations for specific points showed some errors with the observed. It was thought that the errors mainly due to the characteristics of TIDE Model which was developed to solve only with the linearized scheme. Finally it was concluded that, to improve the simulation results by the model, a new attempt to develop a fully nonlinear model as well as further calibration and the more reasonable generation of finite element grid would be needed.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.531-545
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper is to develop a prediction model for the compressive strength of waste LCD glass applied in concrete by analyzing a series of laboratory test results, which were obtained in our previous study. The hyperbolic function was used to perform the nonlinear-multivariate regression analysis of the compressive strength prediction model with the following parameters: water-binder ratio w/b, curing age t, and waste glass content G. According to the relative regression analysis, the compressive strength prediction model is developed. The calculated results are in accord with the laboratory measured data, which are the concrete compressive strengths of different mix proportions. In addition, a coefficient of determination $R^2$ value between 0.93 and 0.96 and a mean absolute percentage error MAPE between 5.4% and 8.4% were obtained by regression analysis using the predicted compressive analysis value, and the test results are also excellent. Therefore, the predicted results for compressive strength are highly accurate for waste LCD glass applied in concrete. Additionally, this predicted model exhibits a good predictive capacity when employed to calculate the compressive strength of washed glass sand concrete.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.222-233
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• 2010

This paper aims at predicting the BDI from Jan. to Dec. 2010 using such econometric techniues of the univariate time series as stochastic ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the two ARIMA models and five Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through December 2009. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean error (ME). The RMSE and MAE indicate that the ARIMA-type models outperform the random walk model And the mean errors for all models are small in magnitude relative to the MAE's, indicating that all models don't have a tendency of overpredicting or underpredicting systematically in forecasting. The pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are expected to be 2,820 at the end of 2010 compared with the optimistic forecasts of 4,230.

• Animal Bioscience
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.648-658
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• 2022

Objective: The identification of nonlinear mixed models that describe the growth trajectory of New Zealand rabbits was performed based on weight records and carcass measures obtained using ultrasonography. Methods: Phenotypic records of body weight (BW) and loin eye area (LEA) were collected from 66 animals raised in a didactic-productive module of cuniculture located in the southern Piaui state, Brazil. The following nonlinear models were tested considering fixed parameters: Brody, Gompertz, Logistic, Richards, Meloun 1, modified Michaelis-Menten, Santana, and von Bertalanffy. The coefficient of determination (R²), mean squared error, percentage of convergence of each model (%C), mean absolute deviation of residuals, Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to determine the best model. The model that best described the growth trajectory for each trait was also used under the context of mixed models, considering two parameters that admit biological interpretation (A and k) with random effects. Results: The von Bertalanffy model was the best fitting model for BW according to the highest value of R² (0.98) and lowest values of AIC (6,675.30) and BIC (6,691.90). For LEA, the Logistic model was the most appropriate due to the results of R² (0.52), AIC (783.90), and BIC (798.40) obtained using this model. The absolute growth rates estimated using the von Bertalanffy and Logistic models for BW and LEA were 21.51g/d and 3.16 cm², respectively. The relative growth rates at the inflection point were 0.028 for BW (von Bertalanffy) and 0.014 for LEA (Logistic). Conclusion: The von Bertalanffy and Logistic models with random effect at the asymptotic weight are recommended for analysis of ponderal and carcass growth trajectories in New Zealand rabbits. The inclusion of random effects in the asymptotic weight and maturity rate improves the quality of fit in comparison to fixed models.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.589-597
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• 2019

The purpose of this study was improve accuracy the IOPs inversion model(IOPs-IM) developed in 2016 for phycocyanin(PC) concentration estimation in the Nakdong River. Additionally, two optimum models were developed and evaluated with 2017 measurement field spectral data for the Geum River and the Yeongsan River. The used measurement data for IOPs-IM analyzation was randomly classified as training and verification materials at the ratio of 2:1 in all data sets. Using the training data set from 2015-2017, accuracy results of the IOPs-IM generally improved for the Nakdong River. The RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) decreased by 14 % compared to 2016. For the GeumRiver, the results of the IOPs-IM were suitable, except for some point results in 2016. Results of the IOPs-IM in the Yeongsan River followed the overall 1:1 line and MAE(Mean Absolute Error) was lower than other rivers. But the RMSE and MAE values were higher. As a result of applying the validation data to the IOPs-IM, the accuracy of the Nakdong River was reduced to RMSE 17.7 % and MRE 16.4 %, respectively compared with 2016. However, the MRE(Mean Relative Error) was estimated to be higher by 400 % in the Geum River, and the RMSE was more than 100 mg/㎥ of the Yeongsan River. Therefore, it is necessary to get the continuously data with various sections of each river for obtain objective and reliable results and the models should be improved.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.148-159
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• 2018

Purpose: Unmanned air vehicle (UAV) remote sensing was applied to test various vegetation indices and make prediction models of protein content of rice for monitoring grain quality and proper management practice. Methods: Image acquisition was carried out by using NIR (Green, Red, NIR), RGB and RE (Blue, Green, Red-edge) camera mounted on UAV. Sampling was done synchronously at the geo-referenced points and GPS locations were recorded. Paddy samples were air-dried to 15% moisture content, and then dehulled and milled to 92% milling yield and measured the protein content by near-infrared spectroscopy. Results: Artificial neural network showed the better performance with $R^2$ (coefficient of determination) of 0.740, NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) of 0.733 and RMSE (root mean square error) of 0.187% considering all 54 samples than the models developed by PR (polynomial regression), SLR (simple linear regression), and PLSR (partial least square regression). PLSR calibration models showed almost similar result with PR as 0.663 ($R^2$) and 0.169% (RMSE) for cloud-free samples and 0.491 ($R^2$) and 0.217% (RMSE) for cloud-shadowed samples. However, the validation models performed poorly. This study revealed that there is a highly significant correlation between NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and protein content in rice. For the cloud-free samples, the SLR models showed $R^2=0.553$ and RMSE = 0.210%, and for cloud-shadowed samples showed 0.479 as $R^2$ and 0.225% as RMSE respectively. Conclusion: There is a significant correlation between spectral bands and grain protein content. Artificial neural networks have the strong advantages to fit the nonlinear problem when a sigmoid activation function is used in the hidden layer. Quantitatively, the neural network model obtained a higher precision result with a mean absolute relative error (MARE) of 2.18% and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.187%.