• Title/Summary/Keyword: Maximum Demand

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Estimation of the Probable Maximum Water Thermal Energy in Korean Dams based on the Water-Energy Nexus Concept (물-에너지 넥서스기반 국내 댐 가능최대 수열에너지 산정)

  • Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2018
  • Demand for essential resources including water, energy and food is rapidly increasing due to climate change, population growth and urbanization. To solve this problem, the concept of water-energy-food nexus has been introduced, and many countries have been trying to acquire the Nexus technology that can maximize the efficiency by analyzing the interconnection between resources. In this regard, this study attempted to estimate the probable maximum water thermal energy in the dam based on the water-energy nexus concept. The estimation of the probable maximum water thermal energy was implemented to monthly water storage of the largest dams in the four major river systems. As a result of analyzing the estimated monthly water thermal energy from 2000 to 2016, Soyang River dam has the largest probable maximum water thermal energy, and Sumjin River dam has the smallest. However, the probable maximum water thermal energy was small in common between March and April, between September and October due to the small temperature difference between the ambient air and the dam water. Also, according to the characteristics of the dam, Daecheong dam and Soyang River dam were beneficial for supplying water thermal energy for heating, and Sumjin River dam and Andong dam were advantageous for supplying water thermal energy for cooling. Our findings can be useful to realize the water-energy-food nexus by increasing the utilization and value of water resources as well as expanding the roles and functions of dams as a starting point to use dam water thermal energy.

A review of artificial intelligence based demand forecasting techniques (인공지능 기반 수요예측 기법의 리뷰)

  • Jeong, Hyerin;Lim, Changwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.795-835
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    • 2019
  • Big data has been generated in various fields. Many companies have now tried to make profits by building a system capable of analyzing big data based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Integrating AI technology has made analyzing and utilizing vast amounts of data increasingly valuable. In particular, demand forecasting with maximum accuracy is critical to government and business management in various fields such as finance, procurement, production and marketing. In this case, it is important to apply an appropriate model that considers the demand pattern for each field. It is possible to analyze complex patterns of real data that can also be enlarged by a traditional time series model or regression model. However, choosing the right model among the various models is difficult without prior knowledge. Many studies based on AI techniques such as machine learning and deep learning have been proven to overcome these problems. In addition, demand forecasting through the analysis of stereotyped data and unstructured data of images or texts has also shown high accuracy. This paper introduces important areas where demand forecasts are relatively active as well as introduces machine learning and deep learning techniques that consider the characteristics of each field.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of confined masonry wall buildings

  • Ranjbaran, Fariman;Hosseini, Mahmood
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.201-216
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    • 2014
  • In this paper the vulnerability of the confined masonry buildings is evaluated analytically. The proposed approach includes the nonlinear dynamic analysis of the two-story confined masonry buildings with common plan as a reference structure. In this approach the damage level is calculated based on the probability of exceedance of loss vs a specified ground motion in the form of fragility curves. The fragility curves of confined masonry wall buildings are presented in two levels of limit states corresponding to elastic and maximum strength versus PGA based on analytical method. In this regard the randomness of parameters indicating the characteristics of the building structure as well as ground motion is considered as likely uncertainties. In order to develop the analytical fragility curves the proposed analytical models of confined masonry walls in a previous investigation of the authors, are used to specify the damage indices and responses of the structure. In order to obtain damage indices a series of pushover analyses are performed, and to identify the seismic demand a series of nonlinear dynamic analysis are conducted. Finally by considering various mechanical and geometric parameters of masonry walls and numerous accelerograms, the fragility curves with assuming a log normal distribution of data are derived based on capacity and demand of building structures in a probabilistic approach.

Probabilistic analysis of spectral displacement by NSA and NDA

  • Devandiran, P.;Kamatchi, P.;Rao, K. Balaji;Ravisankar, K.;Iyer, Nagesh R.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.439-459
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    • 2013
  • Main objective of the present study is to determine the statistical properties and suitable probability distribution functions of spectral displacements from nonlinear static and nonlinear dynamic analysis within the frame work of Monte Carlo simulation for typical low rise and high rise RC framed buildings located in zone III and zone V and designed as per Indian seismic codes. Probabilistic analysis of spectral displacement is useful for strength assessment and loss estimation. To the author's knowledge, no study is reported in literature on comparison of spectral displacement including the uncertainties in capacity and demand in Indian context. In the present study, uncertainties in capacity of the building is modeled by choosing cross sectional dimensions of beams and columns, density and compressive strength of concrete, yield strength and elastic modulus of steel and, live load as random variables. Uncertainty in demand is modeled by choosing peak ground acceleration (PGA) as a random variable. Nonlinear static analysis (NSA) and nonlinear dynamic analysis (NDA) are carried out for typical low rise and high rise reinforced concrete framed buildings using IDARC 2D computer program with the random sample input parameters. Statistical properties are obtained for spectral displacements corresponding to performance point from NSA and maximum absolute roof displacement from NDA and suitable probability distribution functions viz., normal, Weibull, lognormal are examined for goodness-of-fit. From the hypothesis test for goodness-of-fit, lognormal function is found to be suitable to represent the statistical variation of spectral displacement obtained from NSA and NDA.

A numerical investigation of seismic performance of large span single-layer latticed domes with semi-rigid joints

  • Zhang, Huidong;Han, Qinghua
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.57-75
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    • 2013
  • It is still inadequate for investigating the highly nonlinear and complex mechanical behaviors of single-layer latticed domes by only performing a force-based demand-capacity analysis. The energy-based balance method has been largely accepted for assessing the seismic performance of a structure in recent years. The various factors, such as span-to-rise ratio, joint rigidity and damping model, have a remarkable effect on the load-carrying capacity of a single-layer latticed dome. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the maximum load-carrying capacity of a dome under extreme loading conditions. In this paper, a mechanical model for members of the semi-rigidly jointed single-layer latticed domes, which combines fiber section model with semi-rigid connections, is proposed. The static load-carrying capacity and seismic performance on the single-layer latticed domes are evaluated by means of the mechanical model. In these analyses, different geometric parameters, joint rigidities and roof loads are discussed. The buckling behaviors of members and damage distribution of the structure are presented in detail. The sensitivity of dynamic demand parameters of the structures subjected to strong earthquakes to the damping is analyzed. The results are helpful to have a better understanding of the seismic performance of the single-layer latticed domes.

Performance Comparison Between Routing Protocols Based on the Correlation Analysis of Performance Metrics for AODV Routing Protocol (AODV 라우팅 프로토콜의 성능 매트릭들 간의 상관관계 분석에 기반한 라우팅 프로토콜들 간의 성능 비교)

  • Lee, Yun-Kyung;Kim, Ju-Gyun
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.349-367
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    • 2013
  • In MANET, the AODV routing protocol with on-demand method has a problem in large control packet overhead. In order to improve this, we first need a comprehensive analysis of correlation between performance metrics and factors affecting the performance of AODV. Selected parameters based on this analysis make it enable to be a more accurate and fair performance analysis, as well as to reduce the time and effort when constructing a scenario for performance analysis. In this paper, various scenarios are configured to apply AODV by varying the values of factors affecting the performance with network simulator QualNet 5.0, and then the results are analysed using performance metrics proposed by IETF MANET working group. This paper also founds a correlation between performance metrics and factors affecting the performance for AODV routing protocol, choosing the values of factors that represent many of the most maximum and minimum values of each performance metrics, and proposes optimal simulation parameters for a more accurate performance evaluation of routing protocols with minimal scenario in experiments. Next, performance comparison of AODV, DSR and DYMO routing protocols based on the proposed simulation parameters is shown which provides a comparative analysis on the performance of on-demand routing protocols. Results of this paper could be very useful for the researcher or service provider who wants to find nice simulation environment or select a proper routing protocol.

A Parameter Estimation of Bass Diffusion Model by the Hybrid of NLS and OLS (NLS와 OLS의 하이브리드 방법에 의한 Bass 확산모형의 모수추정)

  • Hong, Jung-Sik;Kim, Tae-Gu;Koo, Hoon-Young
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.74-82
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    • 2011
  • The Bass model is a cornerstone in diffusion theory which is used for forecasting demand of durables or new services. Three well-known estimation methods for parameters of the Bass model are Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Nonlinear Least Square (NLS). In this paper, a hybrid method incorporating OLS and NLS is presented and it's performance is analyzed and compared with OLS and NLS by using simulation data and empirical data. The results show that NLS has the best performance in terms of accuracy and our hybrid method has the best performance in terms of stability. Specifically, hybrid method has better performance with less data. This result means much in practical aspect because the avaliable data is little when a diffusion model is used for forecasting demand of a new product.

A Strong LP Formulation for the Ring Loading Problem with Integer Demand Splitting

  • Lee, Kyung-Sik;Park, Sung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.306-310
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we consider the Ring Loading Problem with integer demand splitting (RLP). The problem is given with a ring network, in which a required traffic requirement between each selected node pair must be routed on it. Each traffic requirement can be routed in both directions on the ring network while splitting each traffic requirement in two directions only by integer is allowed. The problem is to find an optimal routing of each traffic requirement which minimizes the capacity requirement. Here, the capacity requirement is defined as the maximum of traffic loads imposed on each link on the network. We formulate the problem as an integer program. By characterizing every extreme point solution to the LP relaxation of the formulation, we show that the optimal objective value of the LP relaxation is equal to p or p+0.5, where p is a nonnegative integer. We also show that the difference between the optimal objective value of RLP and that of the LP relaxation is at most 1. Therefore, we can verify that the optimal objective value of RLP is p+1 if that of the LP relaxation is p+0.5. On the other hand, we present a strengthened LP with size polynomially bounded by the input size, which provides enough information to determine if the optimal objective value of RLP is p or p+1.

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Design and Evaluation of a Dynamic Disk Striping and a Group-Alternation Round-Robin Data Placement Method for Video-on-Demand Serves (주무형 비디오 서버를 위한 동적 디스크 스트라이핑과 그룹교대 라운드로빈 데이터 배치 방법의 설계 및 평가)

  • 배인한;이재경
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 1999
  • In video-on-demand systems, movies are striped across the disks of the array in a video server to support multiple access. The blocks of the movies have to be placed carefully on the disks of the array in a video server in order to avoid load imbalance across these disks as well as to achieve maximum utilization of both space and bandwidth of these disks. This paper proposes a movie placement method called the GARR (group-alternation round-robin) that is based on the dynamic disk striping method considering the popularity of movie. The GARR uses group-alternation as movie selection policy and round-robin as data placement policy, where group-alternation allocates popular movie and unpopular movie groups to disks alternately. The performance of the GARR is evaluated by simulations.

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Development of the Reliability Traffic Assignment Model based on the Travel Time Variation (통행시간변화를 고려하는 신뢰도통행배정모형 개발)

  • 문병섭;이승재;임강원
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 1999
  • This paper defines the reliable based route choice Principle and formulates the reliability based equilibrium traffic assignment using the Principle. The reliability is defined as the difference of travel demand and capacity using the interference theory of the system engineering. An efficient solution a1gorithm based on Frank-Wo1fe algolithm is Presented to calculate and compare the reliability based traffic assignment with conventional travel time based assignment using small and large scaled road networks. The results show that reliability based traffic assignment converges to equilibrium solution in a reasonable computing time. The equilibrium link flows between reliability and travel time based traffic assignment differ each other in the sense that reliability based assignment is assigned based on the maximum difference of travel demand and link capacity whilst travel time based is assigned on the shortest travel time.

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