• Architectural research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.31-37
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• 2007

This study presents the so-called Modified Allowable Stress Design (MASD) method for structural designs. The objective of this study is to qualitatively estimate uncertainties of tensile steel member's cross-sectional structural designs and find the optimal resulting design which can resist all uncertainty cases. The design parameters are assumed to be interval associated with lower and upper bounds and consequently interval methods are implemented to non-stochastically produce design results including the structural uncertainties. By seeking optimal uncertainty combinations among interval parameters, engineers can qualitatively describe uncertain design solutions which were not considered in conventional structural designs. Under the assumption that structures have basically uncertainties like displacement responses, the safety range of resulting designs is represented by lower and upper bounds depending on given tolerance error and structural parameters. As a numerical example uncertain cross-sectional areas of members that can resist applied loads are investigated and it demonstrates that the present design method is superior to conventional allowable stress designs (ASD) with respect to a reliably structural safety as well as an economical material.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.311-330
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• 2007

Model-based predictions of structural behavior are negatively affected by uncertainties of various type and in various stages of the structural analysis. The present paper focusses on dynamic analysis and addresses the effects of uncertainties concerning material and geometric parameters, mainly in the context of modal analysis of large-scale structures. Given the large number of uncertain parameters arising in this case, highly scalable simulation-based methods are adopted, which can deal with possibly thousands of uncertain parameters. In order to solve the reliability problem, i.e., the estimation of very small exceedance probabilities, an advanced simulation method called Line Sampling is used. In combination with an efficient algorithm for the estimation of the most important uncertain parameters, the method provides good estimates of the failure probability and enables one to quantify the error in the estimate. Another aspect here considered is the uncertainty quantification for closely-spaced eigenfrequencies. The solution here adopted represents each eigenfrequency as a weighted superposition of the full set of eigenfrequencies. In a case study performed with the FE model of a satellite it is shown that the effects of uncertain parameters can be very different in magnitude, depending on the considered response quantity. In particular, the uncertainty in the quantities of interest (eigenfrequencies) turns out to be mainly caused by very few of the uncertain parameters, which results in sharp estimates of the failure probabilities at low computational cost.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.319-324
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• 2006

Release rate is one of the important items for the environmental impact assessment caused by radioactive materials in case of an accidental release from the nuclear facilities. In this study, the uncertainty of the estimated release rate is evaluated using Monte Carlo method. Gaussian plume model and linear programming are used for estimating the release rate of a source material. Tracer experiment is performed at the Yeoung-Kwang nuclear site to understand the dispersion characteristics. The optimized release rate was 1.56 times rather than the released source as a result of the linear programming to minimize the sum of square errors between the observed concentrations of the experiment and the calculated ones using Gaussian plume model. In the mean time, 95% confidence interval of the estimated release rate was from 1.41 to 2.53 times compared with the released rate as a result of the Monte Carlo simulation considering input variations of the Gaussian plume model. We confirm that this kind of the uncertainty evaluation for the source rate can support decision making appropriately in case of the radiological emergencies.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.467-471
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• 2014

The natural frequencies of a mechanical system are determined by the system parameters such as masses and stiffness of the system. Since material irregularities and manufacturing tolerances always exist in most of practical engineering situations, the system parameters always have uncertainties. As the uncertainties of the parameters increase, the uncertainties of the system natural frequencies also increases. Then, the reliability of the system deteriorates. So, the uncertainty of the system natural frequencies should be analyzed accurately and considered in the design of the system. In order to analyze the uncertainty of the system natural frequencies employing most of existing uncertainty analysis methods, the probability distributions of the uncertain system parameters should be identified. In most practical situations, however, identification of the probability distributions is almost impossible because of limited time and cost. For that case, the reliability should be estimated based on finite samples of the system parameters. In this paper, sample based reliability estimation method employing extreme value theory was proposed. Using the proposed estimation method, sample based reliability design of the system natural frequencies was conducted.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.469-488
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• 2008

Finite element methods have often been used for structural analyses of various mechanical problems. When finite element analyses are utilized to resolve mechanical systems, numerical uncertainties in the initial data such as structural parameters and loading conditions may result in uncertainties in the structural responses. Therefore the initial data have to be as accurate as possible in order to obtain reliable structural analysis results. The typical finite element method may not properly represent discrete systems when using uncertain data, since all input data of material properties and applied loads are defined by nominal values. An interval finite element analysis, which uses the interval arithmetic as introduced by Moore (1966) is proposed as a non-stochastic method in this study and serves a new numerical tool for evaluating the uncertainties of the initial data in structural analyses. According to this method, the element stiffness matrix includes interval terms of the lower and upper bounds of the structural parameters, and interval change functions are devised. Numerical uncertainties in the initial data are described as a tolerance error and tree graphs of uncertain data are constructed by numerical uncertainty combinations of each parameter. The structural responses calculated by all uncertainty cases can be easily estimated so that structural safety can be included in the design. Numerical applications of truss and frame structures demonstrate the efficiency of the present method with respect to numerical analyses of structural uncertainties.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.195-200
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• 2021

In recent years, Vietnam's economic growth rate has been attributed to the growth of many well-managed industries within Southeast Asia. Among them is the civil construction industry. Construction projects typically take a long time to complete and require a huge budget. Many socio-economic variables and factors affect total construction project costs due to market fluctuations. In recent years, crucial socioeconomic development indicators of construction reached a fairly high growth rate. Also, most infrastructure and construction projects have a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. This makes it challenging to predict the accurate project price. These challenges raise the need to recognize significant factors that influence the construction price index of civil buildings in Vietnam, both micro and macro. Therefore, this paper presents critical factors that affect the construction price index using the fuzzy extent analysis process in an uncertain environment. This proposed quantitative model is expected to reflect the uncertainty in the process of evaluating and ranking the influencing factors of the construction price index in Vietnam. The research results would also allow project stakeholders to be more informed of the factors affecting the construction price index in the context of Vietnam's civil construction industry. They also enable construction contractors to estimate project costs and bid rates better, enhancing their project and risk management performance.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.4412-4421
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• 2022

The pressure measurement in the high-temperature liquid metal system, such as Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor(SFR), is important and yet it is very challenging due to its nature. The measuring pressure is relatively at low range and the applied temperature varies in wide range. Moreover, the pressure transfer material in impulse line needs to considered the high temperature condition. The conventional diaphragm-based approach cannot be used for it is impossible to remove the effect of thermal expansion. In this paper, the Fiber Bragg Grating(FBG) sensor-based pressure measuring concept is suggested that it is free of problems induced by the thermal expansion. To verify this concept, a prototype was fabricated and tested in an appropriate conditions. The uncertainty analysis result of the experiment is also included. The final result of this study clearly showed that the FBG-based pressure transmitter system is applicable to the extreme environment, such as SFR and any other high-temperature liquid metal system and the measurement uncertainty is within reasonable range.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.137-146
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• 2016

In recent years, business environment is faced with multi uncertainty that have not been suffered in the past. As supply chain is getting expanded and longer, the flow of information, material and production is also being complicated. It is well known that development service industry using application software has various uncertainty in random events such as supply and demand fluctuation of developer's capcity, project effective date after winning a contract, manpower cost (or revenue), subcontract cost (or purchase), and overrun due to developer's skill-level. This study intends to social contribution through attempts to optimize enterprise's goal by supply chain management platform to balance demand and supply and stochastic programming which is basically applied in order to solve uncertainty considering economical and operational risk at solution supplier. In Particular, this study emphasizes to determine allocation of internal and external manpower of developers using S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) as monthly resource input has constraint on resource's capability that shared in industry or task. This study is to verify how Stochastic Programming such as Markowitz's MV (Mean Variance) model or 2-Stage Recourse Model is flexible and efficient than Deterministic Programming in software enterprise field by experiment with process and data from service industry which is manufacturing software and performing projects. In addition, this study is also to analysis how profit and labor input plan according to scope of uncertainty is changed based on Pareto Optimal, then lastly it is to enumerate limitation of the study extracted drawback which can be happened in real business environment and to contribute direction in future research considering another applicable methodology.

• Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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• v.15 no.5 s.58
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• pp.289-297
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• 2006

This study was begun on the premise that architecture which has the definite disposition for survival even in the urban, social structure of that uncertainty and constructs specialty is biomorphic architecture. This study was made with the following four specific purposes largely. First, through the theoretical investigation of biomorphic architecture that appears in the tendency that mordern architecture develops into the architecture of do-stereotype and new form, its meaning and definition are examined. Second, the analysis of biomorphic architecture is investigated and the generation causes are applied architecturally and generate biomorphic architecture is made. Third, by analyzing the material expression characteristics of biomorphic architecture, the meaning and possibility of architecture, which expresses the vitality of organism, as the material expression characteristics of biomorphic architecture, are investigated. The material expression characteristics was deduced through the generation background of biomorphic architecture. The material expression characteristics of biomorphic architecture is the various modeling by smart-network and the response system of sensitivity poly-logue.

• Analytical Science and Technology
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.125-134
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• 2013

This study was demonstrated to estimate the measurement uncertainty of 23 multiple-component amino acids from beef bone extract by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The sources of measurement uncertainty (i.e. sample weight, final volume, standard weight, purity, standard solution, calibration curve, recovery and repeatability) in associated with the analysis of amino acids were evaluated. The estimation of uncertainty obtained on the GUM (Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement) and EURACHEM document with mathematical calculation and statistical analysis. The content of total amino acids from beef bone extract was 36.18 g/100 g and the expanded uncertainty by multiplying coverage factor (k, 2.05~2.36) was 3.81 g/100 g at a 95% confidence level. The major contributors to the measurement uncertainty were identified in the order of recovery and repeatability (25.2%), sample pretreatment (24.5%), calibration-curve (24.0%) and weight of the reference material (10.4%). Therefore, more careful experiments are required in these steps to reduce uncertainties of amino acids analysis with a better personal proficiency improvement.