• Title/Summary/Keyword: Markov process model

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Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Components of Gyeongancheon Watershed (기후변화가 경안천 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Min-Ji;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.33-50
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    • 2009
  • The impact on hydrologic components considering future potential climate, land use change and vegetation cover information was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated (1999 - 2000) and validated (2001 - 2002) for the upstream watershed ($260.4\;km^2$) of Gyeongancheon water level gauging station with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.77 to 0.60 and 0.79 to 0.60, respectively. Two GCMs (MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM) future weather data of high (A2), middle (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the data was corrected by 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model) and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. Three periods data of 2010 - 2039 (2020s), 2040 - 2069 (2050s), 2070 - 2099 (2080s) were prepared. To reduce the uncertainty of land surface conditions, future land use and vegetation canopy prediction were tried by CA-Markov technique and NOAA NDVI-Temperature relationship respectively. MIROC3.2 hires and ECHAM5-OM showed increase tendency in annual streamflow up to 21.4 % for 2080 A1B and 8.9 % for 2050 A1B scenario respectively. The portion of future predicted ET about precipitation increased up to 3 % in MIROC3.2 hires and 16 % in ECHAM5-OM respectively. The future soil moisture content slightly increased compared to 2002 soil moisture.

Epigenetic Regulation of Fungal Development and Pathogenesis in the Rice Blast Fungus

  • Jeon, Junhyun
    • 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.11-11
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    • 2014
  • Fungal pathogens have huge impact on health and economic wellbeing of human by causing life-threatening mycoses in immune-compromised patients or by destroying crop plants. A key determinant of fungal pathogenesis is their ability to undergo developmental change in response to host or environmental factors. Genetic pathways that regulate such morphological transitions and adaptation are therefore extensively studied during the last few decades. Given that epigenetic as well as genetic components play pivotal roles in development of plants and mammals, contribution of microbial epigenetic counterparts to this morphogenetic process is intriguing yet nearly unappreciated question to date. To bridge this gap in our knowledge, we set out to investigate histone modifications among epigenetic mechanisms that possibly regulate fungal adaptation and processes involved in pathogenesis of a model plant pathogenic fungus, Magnaporthe oryzae. M. oryzae is a causal agent of rice blast disease, which destroys 10 to 30% of the rice crop annually. Since the rice is the staple food for more than half of human population, the disease is a major threat to global food security. In addition to the socioeconomic impact of the disease it causes, the fungus is genetically tractable and can undergo well-defined morphological transitions including asexual spore production and appressorium (a specialized infection structure) formation in vitro, making it a model to study fungal development and pathogenicity. For functional and comparative analysis of histone modifications, a web-based database (dbHiMo) was constructed to archive and analyze histone modifying enzymes from eukaryotic species whose genome sequences are available. Histone modifying enzymes were identified applying a search pipeline built upon profile hidden Markov model (HMM) to proteomes. The database incorporates 22,169 histone-modifying enzymes identified from 342 species including 214 fungal, 33 plants, and 77 metazoan species. The dbHiMo provides users with web-based personalized data browsing and analysis tools, supporting comparative and evolutionary genomics. Based on the database entries, functional analysis of genes encoding histone acetyltransferases and histone demethylases is under way. Here I provide examples of such analyses that show how histone acetylation and methylation is implicated in regulating important aspects of fungal pathogenesis. Current analysis of histone modifying enzymes will be followed by ChIP-Seq and RNA-seq experiments to pinpoint the genes that are controlled by particular histone modifications. We anticipate that our work will provide not only the significant advances in our understanding of epigenetic mechanisms operating in microbial eukaryotes but also basis to expand our perspective on regulation of development in fungal pathogens.

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MDP(Markov Decision Process) Model for Prediction of Survivor Behavior based on Topographic Information (지형정보 기반 조난자 행동예측을 위한 마코프 의사결정과정 모형)

  • Jinho Son;Suhwan Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2023
  • In the wartime, aircraft carrying out a mission to strike the enemy deep in the depth are exposed to the risk of being shoot down. As a key combat force in mordern warfare, it takes a lot of time, effot and national budget to train military flight personnel who operate high-tech weapon systems. Therefore, this study studied the path problem of predicting the route of emergency escape from enemy territory to the target point to avoid obstacles, and through this, the possibility of safe recovery of emergency escape military flight personnel was increased. based problem, transforming the problem into a TSP, VRP, and Dijkstra algorithm, and approaching it with an optimization technique. However, if this problem is approached in a network problem, it is difficult to reflect the dynamic factors and uncertainties of the battlefield environment that military flight personnel in distress will face. So, MDP suitable for modeling dynamic environments was applied and studied. In addition, GIS was used to obtain topographic information data, and in the process of designing the reward structure of MDP, topographic information was reflected in more detail so that the model could be more realistic than previous studies. In this study, value iteration algorithms and deterministic methods were used to derive a path that allows the military flight personnel in distress to move to the shortest distance while making the most of the topographical advantages. In addition, it was intended to add the reality of the model by adding actual topographic information and obstacles that the military flight personnel in distress can meet in the process of escape and escape. Through this, it was possible to predict through which route the military flight personnel would escape and escape in the actual situation. The model presented in this study can be applied to various operational situations through redesign of the reward structure. In actual situations, decision support based on scientific techniques that reflect various factors in predicting the escape route of the military flight personnel in distress and conducting combat search and rescue operations will be possible.

Depth Image Poselets via Body Part-based Pose and Gesture Recognition (신체 부분 포즈를 이용한 깊이 영상 포즈렛과 제스처 인식)

  • Park, Jae Wan;Lee, Chil Woo
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2016
  • In this paper we propose the depth-poselets using body-part-poses and also propose the method to recognize the gesture. Since the gestures are composed of sequential poses, in order to recognize a gesture, it should emphasize to obtain the time series pose. Because of distortion and high degree of freedom, it is difficult to recognize pose correctly. So, in this paper we used partial pose for obtaining a feature of the pose correctly without full-body-pose. In this paper, we define the 16 gestures, a depth image using a learning image was generated based on the defined gestures. The depth poselets that were proposed in this paper consists of principal three-dimensional coordinates of the depth image and its depth image of the body part. In the training process after receiving the input defined gesture by using a depth camera in order to train the gesture, the depth poselets were generated by obtaining 3D joint coordinates. And part-gesture HMM were constructed using the depth poselets. In the testing process after receiving the input test image by using a depth camera in order to test, it extracts foreground and extracts the body part of the input image by comparing depth poselets. And we check part gestures for recognizing gesture by using result of applying HMM. We can recognize the gestures efficiently by using HMM, and the recognition rates could be confirmed about 89%.

Bayesian ordinal probit semiparametric regression models: KNHANES 2016 data analysis of the relationship between smoking behavior and coffee intake (베이지안 순서형 프로빗 준모수 회귀 모형 : 국민건강영양조사 2016 자료를 통한 흡연양태와 커피섭취 간의 관계 분석)

  • Lee, Dasom;Lee, Eunji;Jo, Seogil;Choi, Taeryeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.25-46
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents ordinal probit semiparametric regression models using Bayesian Spectral Analysis Regression (BSAR) method. Ordinal probit regression is a way of modeling ordinal responses - usually more than two categories - by connecting the probability of falling into each category explained by a combination of available covariates using a probit (an inverse function of normal cumulative distribution function) link. The Bayesian probit model facilitates posterior sampling by bringing a latent variable following normal distribution, therefore, the responses are categorized by the cut-off points according to values of latent variables. In this paper, we extend the latent variable approach to a semiparametric model for the Bayesian ordinal probit regression with nonparametric functions using a spectral representation of Gaussian processes based BSAR method. The latent variable is decomposed into a parametric component and a nonparametric component with or without a shape constraint for modeling ordinal responses and predicting outcomes more flexibly. We illustrate the proposed methods with simulation studies in comparison with existing methods and real data analysis applied to a Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2016 for investigating nonparametric relationship between smoking behavior and coffee intake.

The Analysis of Successional Trends by Topographic Positions in the Natural Deciduous Forest of Mt. Chumbong (점봉산(點鳳産) 일대 천연활엽수림(天然闊葉樹林)의 지형적(地形的) 위치(位置)에 따른 천이(遷移) 경향(傾向) 분석(分析))

  • Lee, Won Sup;Kim, Ji Hong;Jin, Guang Ze
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.89 no.5
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    • pp.655-665
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    • 2000
  • Taking account of the structural variation on species composition by topography, the successional trends were comparatively analyzed for the three topographic positions (valley, mid-slope, and ridge) in the natural deciduous forest of Mt. Chumbong area. The analysis was based upon the subsequent process of generation replacement by understory saplings and seedlings over the overstory trees which will be eventually fallen down. This study adopted the plot sampling method, establishing twenty $20m{\times}20m$ quadrats and collecting vegetation and site data on each different topographic position. The transition matrix model, which was modified from the mathematical theory of Markov chain, was employed to analyze the successional trends and thereafter to predict the overstory species composition in the future for each different topographic position. In valley, the simulation indicated the remarkable decrease in the proportion of species composition of present dominants Quercus mongolica and Fraxinus mandshurica from current 23% and 21% to around 4% of each at the steady state, which is predicted to take less than 200 years. On the other hand, the proportion of such species as Abies holophylla, Acer mono, Tilia amurensis, and Ulmus laciniata will increase at the steady state. In mid-slope, the result showed the remarkable decrease in the proportion of Juglans mandshurica, Kalopanax pictus, and Tilia amurensis from current 15%, 8%, and 15% to 2%, 1%, and 5%, respectively, at steady state predicted to take more than 250 years. In ridge, the current dominant Quercus mongolica was predicted to be decreased dramatically from 58% to 8% at steady state which could be achieved about 200 years. On the contrary, the proportion of Acer mono and Tilia amurensis will be increased from current 4% and 3% to more than 20% and 40%, respectively, at the steady state. Overall results suggested that the study forest is more likely seral rather than climax community. Even though a lot of variation is inevitable due to various kinds of site and vegetation development, the study forest is considered to be more than 200 years away from the steady state or climax in terms of overstory species composition.

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An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

Genetic Contribution of Indigenous Yakutian Cattle to Two Hybrid Populations, Revealed by Microsatellite Variation

  • Li, M.H.;Nogovitsina, E.;Ivanova, Z.;Erhardt, G.;Vilkki, J.;Popov, R.;Ammosov, I.;Kiselyova, T.;Kantanen, J.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.613-619
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    • 2005
  • Indigenous Yakutian cattle' adaptation to the hardest subarctic conditions makes them a valuable genetic resource for cattle breeding in the Siberian area. Since early last century, crossbreeding between native Yakutian cattle and imported Simmental and Kholmogory breeds has been widely adopted. In this study, variations at 22 polymorphic microsatellite loci in 5 populations of Yakutian, Kholmogory, Simmental, Yakutian-Kholmogory and Yakutian-Simmental cattle were analysed to estimate the genetic contribution of Yakutian cattle to the two hybrid populations. Three statistical approaches were used: the weighted least-squares (WLS) method which considers all allele frequencies; a recently developed implementation of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method called likelihood-based estimation of admixture (LEA); and a model-based Bayesian admixture analysis method (STRUCTURE). At population-level admixture analyses, the estimate based on the LEA was consistent with that obtained by the WLS method. Both methods showed that the genetic contribution of the indigenous Yakutian cattle in Yakutian-Kholmogory was small (9.6% by the LEA and 14.2% by the WLS method). In the Yakutian-Simmental population, the genetic contribution of the indigenous Yakutian cattle was considerably higher (62.8% by the LEA and 56.9% by the WLS method). Individual-level admixture analyses using STRUCTURE proved to be more informative than the multidimensional scaling analysis (MDSA) based on individual-based genetic distances. Of the 9 Yakutian-Simmental animals studied, 8 showed admixed origin, whereas of the 14 studied Yakutian-Kholmogory animals only 2 showed Yakutian ancestry (>5%). The mean posterior distributions of individual admixture coefficient (q) varied greatly among the samples in both hybrid populations. This study revealed a minor existing contribution of the Yakutian cattle in the Yakutian-Kholmogory hybrid population, but in the Yakutian-Simmental hybrid population, a major genetic contribution of the Yakutian cattle was seen. The results reflect the different crossbreeding patterns used in the development of the two hybrid populations. Additionally, molecular evidence for differences among individual admixture proportions was seen in both hybrid populations, resulting from the stochastic process in crossing over generations.