• Title/Summary/Keyword: Market price

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Analysis of intraday price momentum effect based on patterns using dynamic time warping (DTW를 이용한 패턴 기반 일중 price momentum 효과 분석)

  • Lee, Chunju;Ahn, Wonbin;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.819-829
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    • 2017
  • The aim of this study is to analyze intraday price momentum. When price trends are formed, price momentum is the phenomenon that future prices tend to follow the trend. When the market opened and closed, a U-shaped trading volume pattern in which the trading volume was concentrated was observed. In this paper, we defined price momentum as the 10 minute trend after market opening is maintained until the end of market. The strategy is to determine buying and selling in accordance with the price change in the initial 10 minutes and liquidating at closing price. In this study, the strategy was empirically analyzed by using minute data, and it showed effectiveness, indicating the presence of an intraday price momentum. A pattern in which returns are increasing at an early stage is called a J-shaped pattern. If the J-shaped pattern occurs, we have found that the price momentum phenomenon tends to be stronger than otherwise. The DTW algorithm, which is well known in the field of pattern recognition, was used for J-shaped pattern recognition and the algorithm was effective in predicting intraday price movements. This study showed that intraday price momentum exists in the KOSPI200 futures market.

The Effects of Olive Flounder Outlook Project : Price Stabilization, Market Efficiency, and Causality Analysis on the Prices by Distributional Channel (넙치 관측사업 효과분석 : 가격안정 및 시장효율성 개선효과, 산지-도매가격간 인과성 분석을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Heon-Dong;Ahn, Byeong-Il
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of outlook project for olive flounder, from the view point of price stabilization, market efficiency, and causality of the prices in different distribution channels. Analytical results show that the volatility of producer price of olive flounder has been significantly mitigated after the implementation of the outlook project. The market efficiency is estimated to be improved after implementing the outlook project although there is an inefficiency on price determination process in some producing regions. The causality test on the producer and wholesale price shows that producing stage leads the wholesale stage in forming the prices. It is found that Jeju leads the flounder price on the size of 500g and 2kg, while Wando leads the price of 1kg size. These estimation result as whole indicate that outlook project for olive flounder has accomplished the intended goals.

Transmission Cost Allocation Considering Reliability Cost (신뢰도 비용을 고려한 송전요금 할당)

  • Park, Yeong-Hyeon;Kim, Dong-Min;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.576-581
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    • 2008
  • Electricity Market in Korea can't provide locational price signal through energy price because energy market is CBP(Cost Based Pool) using uniform price. Generators don't want to locate in a densely populated load area(like the metropolitan area). Because they are paid more fixed cost in metropolitan area. This situation has loss and congestion occurred in power system. However energy market without price signal can't lead generator to the metropolitan. So, market participants should be provided price signal through the transmission price instead of energy price. This paper proposes transmission pricing method considering reliability cost in order to offer price signal. Also, it proposes the method to allocate the transmission cost to each transmission line user through a fair and a reasonable manner. The transmission price is decided by the reliability value of each line. If a transmission line of high reliability value is broke, users using that line will get a loss and a discomfort. So, it is fair that users using a transmission line of high reliability value pay more than the other users. Also, it is reasonable that a transmission line owner get paid more form users using that line.

A Study on the Measure of purchases Savings According to the Market price dispersion. -by Food Market basket Construction Methods- (시장가격분산에 따른 소비자의 구매이득 측정에 관한 연구 -식료품 마켓바스켓 구성의 타당성검토를 중심으로-)

  • 송미영
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 1996
  • The wide range of price found in food market allows consumer reduce the cost of food purchases through comparison shopping into one more stores. Littles known however about how much can be saved by comapring price for a whole market basket of food items. This paper present evidence relating to the comparison shopping through the theories on price is dispersion and show validity constructing methods of food market basket. It is found that the savings of comparison shopping to consumers are likely to be gains in food Markets and three market basket on foods suggest in study found to be validity.

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Designing the Optimal Bilateral Contract in the Competitive Electricity Market (경쟁적 전력시장에서의 적정 직거래 계약가격 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Chung Koo Hyung;Kang Dong Joo;Kim Bal Ho
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.701-703
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    • 2004
  • Although the electricity market structure worldwide may be different in kinds, there generally exists long-term forward market and short-term spot market. Particularly, the bilateral contract in long-term forward market fixes the price between a genco and a customer so that the customer can avoid risks due to price-spike in spot market. The genco also can make an efficient risk-hedge strategy through this bilateral contract. In this paper, we propose a new mechanism for evaluating the optimal bilateral contract price using game theory. This mechanism makes a customer reveal his/her own willingness to purchase electricity so that a fair bilateral contract price can be derived.

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Is Foreign Investors' behavior Involved in Investor Sentiment? Evidence Based on the Korean Stock Crashes

  • Choi, Suyoung
    • Journal of East Asia Management
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates whether foreign investors' behavior is involved in firm-specific investor sentiment. Because the mixed role of foreign investors on investor sentiment formation seems to exist in the Korean stock market, it needs to examine the moderate or incremental effect of foreign investors on the stock price crash risk which is due to investor sentiment. The analysis results using Korea Stock Exchanges - listed firms for the period of 2011-2019 show the increased future stock price crash risk which is attributable to high investor sentiment is mitigated for firms with the high foreign ownership, indicating the moderate effect. This study expands the literature on the foreign investors' behavior in the Korean stock market, by showing foreign investors are not involved in firm-specific investor sentiment, which improves market's efficiency in the Korean stock market. Also, the paper is valuable to the academic and practice field in that the findings shed light on the foreign investors' mitigating role in stock price crashes in the behavioral finance perspective.

Using Neural Networks to Forecast Price in Competitive Power Markets

  • Sedaghati, Alireza
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.271-274
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    • 2005
  • Under competitive power markets, various long-term and short-term contracts based on spot price are used by producers and consumers. So an accurate forecasting for spot price allow market participants to develop bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefit. Artificial Neural Network is a powerful method in forecasting problem. In this paper we used Radial Basis Function(RBF) network to forecast spot price. To learn ANN, in addition to price history, we used some other effective inputs such as load level, fuel price, generation and transmission facilities situation. Results indicate that this forecasting method is accurate and useful.

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Development of System Marginal Price Forecasting Method Using ARIMA Model (ARIMA 모형을 이용한 계통한계가격 예측방법론 개발)

  • Kim Dae-Yong;Lee Chan-Joo;Jeong Yun-Won;Park Jong-Bae;Shin Joong-Rin
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2006
  • Since the SMP(System Marginal Price) is a vital factor to the market participants who intend to maximize the their profit and to the ISO(Independent System Operator) who wish to operate the electricity market in a stable sense, the short-term marginal price forecasting should be performed correctly. In an electricity market the short-term market price affects considerably the short-term trading between the market entities. Therefore, the exact forecasting of SMP can influence on the profit of market participants. This paper presents a new methodology for a day-ahead SMP forecasting using ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model based on the time-series method. And also the correction algorithm is proposed to minimize the forecasting error in order to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the SMP forecasting. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method, the case studies are performed using historical data of SMP in 2004 published by KPX(Korea Power Exchange).

Congested Market Equilibrium Analysis

  • Oh, Hyung-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 1987
  • Congestion occurs whenever users interfere with each other, while competing for scarce resources. In a congested market, such as a telecommunication service market, users of telecommunication services incur costs in using the service in addition to the price. The user's own time costs involved in learning to use the service, waiting for the service, and making use of the service are typically greater than the price of telecommunication services. A market equilibrium analysis is performed in which a method for user demand aggregation is developed. The effects of price changes on user demands and market demands for congested services are examined. It is found that total market demands may increase as the price for less-congested services increase under certain demand conditions. This suggests that a nonuniform pricing scheme for a congested service may improve the utilization of the congested system. The sign of price cross-elasticity for congested services is show to vary with demand conditions. A possible complementary property of congested services is found and the implication of such a property is discussed. It is argued that such a complementary property may lead to a cross subsidy in a market with congestion. Finally, comparisons between uniform pricing and nonuniform pricing policies are made. A specific numerical example is given to show that a nonuniform pricing policy may be Pareto superior to a uniform pricing policy.

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Reliability Analysis for Price Forecasting of Chinese Cabbage (신뢰성 해석기법을 이용한 배추 가격 예측 모형의 개발)

  • Suh, Kyo;Kim, Tae-Gon;Lee, Jeong-Jae
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2008
  • Generally the price of agricultural products has much different characteristics from that of manufacturing products. If products have the limitation of long-term storage and the short period of cultivation, the price of products can be more unstable. Moreover, the price forecasting is very difficult because it doesn't follow any cycle or trend. However price can be regarded as risk instead of uncertainty if we can calculate the probability of price. Reliability analysis techniques are used for forecasting the price change of Chinese cabbage. This study aims to show the usability of reliability analysis for price forecasting. A price-forecasting model was developed based on weather data of the first 10 days of the full cultivating cycle (80 days) 70 days and the average price and standard deviation of wholesale market prices from 1996 to 2001 and applied to forecast the boom price, or the orice which is over the tolerance of market prices, of upland Chinese cabbage in 2002 and 2003. Applied results showed the possibility of boom price forecasting using reliability analysis techniques.