• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.58 no.2
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• pp.239-241
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• 2009

In this paper, an estimation methodology for stand-by energy savings of electric appliances is proposed and some case studies are carried out for televisions. The methodology is based on learning curves and diffusion models, which are able to explain the market characteristics such as market prices and the diffusion speed. Some models were developed to estimate power and energy savings for high-efficient appliances and these model have been used broadly. These models are also applied to this study and modified to estimate stand-by energy savings.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.27 no.5_6
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• pp.1073-1086
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• 2009

This paper considers the problems of martingale measures and risk-minimizing hedging strategies in the market with restricted information. By constructing a general restricted information market model, the explicit relation of arbitrage and the minimal martingale measure between two different information markets are discussed. Also a link among all equivalent martingale measures under restricted information market is given. As an example of restricted information markets, this paper constitutes a jump-diffusion process model and presents a risk minimizing problem under different information. Through $It\hat{o}$ formula and projection results in Schweizer[13], the explicit optimal strategy for different market information are given.

• International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.279-293
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• 2023

This study investigates network effects to measure how strongly the early adopters affect the brand choice of the potential consumer. By using the Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula, this study checks the magnitude of network effects varied from country to country. To consider consumer heterogeneity and network effects in the growth market, this study proposes the multi-brand Gamma/Shifted-Gompertz (m-G/SG) model based on the GH copula. Out of eighteen Western European cellular phone market data and South Korea smartphone data sets, the m-G/SG model provides an improvement in the estimation accuracy over the Libai, Muller, and Peres model. The results show that network effects enhance (i) the polarization of brand choice probabilities as time elapses; (ii) the dominance of the more preferred and the earlier entered brand; and (iii) the deceleration of category-level diffusion. Potential followers can analyze their relationship with earlier entrants through the m-G/SG model and also establish an optimal market entry strategy.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.267-273
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• 2001

While forecasting sales of a new product is very difficult, it is critical to market success. This is especially true when other products have a highly negative influence on the product because of competition effect. In this paper, we develop a choice-based competitive diffusion model and apply to the case where two digital mobile telecommunication services, that is, digital cellular and PCS services, compete. The basic premise is that demand patterns result from choice behavior, where customers choose a product to maximize their utility. In comparison with Bass-type competitive diffusion models, our model provides superior fitting and forecasting performance. The choice-based model is useful in that it enables the description of such competitive environments and provides the flexibility to include marketing mix variables such as price and advertising.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.95-114
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to search information attributes suitable for SNS and to identify the influence of individuals or groups who contribute to the creation and diffusion of information in the SNS. The researchers extracted the accuracy, two-sided information, novelty, diversity, and experiential factors that influence the acceptance and diffusion of information in the SNS, and identified the relationships among the variables, the usefulness of information and the degree of information diffusion intention. And researchers studied market maven who play the key role in creating and diffusing SNS information. A total of 600 questionnaires were collected and 549 questionnaires were used to test the research hypothesis. The results of the study are as follows. Consumers considered information, which had accuracy, two-sided, and experiential attributes, as useful. But novelty or diversity information were regarded as unuseful because of motive to avoid ambiguity. In the Market Maven Group who have the ability to acquire and edit SNS information, however, there were weak or negative causality between experience and accuracy and information usability factors. but positive causality between novelty and diversity factors of information and usability.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.87-106
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• 1996

This paper proposes a new model as a framework for forecasting demand and technological substitution, which can accommodate different patterns of technological change. This model, which we named, "Adaptive Diffusion Model", is formalized from a conceptual framework that incorporates several underlying factors determining the market demand for technological products. The formulation of this model is given in terms of a period analysis to improve its explanatory power for dynamic processes in the real world, and is described as a continuous form which approximates a discrete derivation of the model. In order to illustrate the applicability and generality of this model, time-series data of the diffusion rates for some typical products in electronics and telecommunications market have been empirically tested. The results show that the model has higher explanatory power than any other existing model for all the products tested in our study. It has been found that this model can provide a framework which is sufficiently robust in forecasting demand and innovation diffusion for various technological products.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.11
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• pp.17-24
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• 2018

Purpose - The portability, functionality, and convenience of smart phones are constantly updated. With the rapid popularization of users of mobile terminals, Xiaomi is also developing rapidly. In February 2015, the users of Xiaomi exceeded 100 million people. As a transnational industry, Xiaomi has developed rapidly in not only China but also Korea. However, through the literature review, there is no radmissible study on the Xiaomi mobile telephones in the Korean market, so it is necessary to study the Xiaomi mobile phones in Korean market. Research design, data, and methodology - Figure analysis of data and social science analytical software of IBM SPSS AMOS 23.0 and IBM Statistics 23.0 were used for all the data researched. Results - First, the innovative diffusion temperament and the compatibility of Xiaomi have positive impacts on achievement expectations and effort expectations. Second, the innovative diffusion temperament and the complexity of Xiaomi have negative impacts on achievement expectations and effort expectations. Third, the innovative diffusion characteristics and the relative superiority of Xiaomi have positive impacts on achievement expectations and effort expectations. Conclusions - Through the analysis of the prior study, the innovation acceptance characteristics consist of compatibility, complexity, relative superiority, observation possibility, and the attempt possibility; the technical acceptance characteristics consist of achievement expectations, effort expectations, social influence, promotion condition, the study conducts relevant research on the continued use intention and analyze the hypothesis of research model.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.45-55
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• 2015

This paper examines the diffusion of smartphones with a special emphasis on the diffusive interactions between Apple iOS and Google Android in a global context. Since the two mobile platforms were first introduced in the market, the use of smartphones has skyrocketed, suggesting that the dramatic diffusion of smartphones may be explained in part by the growth and competition of these two platforms. To study this, an extended Bass model is applied to a data set of quarterly smartphone sales between 2008 and 2013 for 15 countries. Our findings suggest that the innovation effect was more salient for iOS than for Android in developed countries, whereas the imitation effect was more striking for Android than for iOS in developing countries. Furthermore, our results from the co-diffusion model suggest that the diffusion of Android negatively affected by the diffusion of iOS, but not vice versa.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.141-159
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• 2005

In this research, we develope an estimation method for the estimation of the market potential in the new service (or product) diffusion model. The developed method is based on the ordered response model which can effectively incorporate the survey result of the multi-point scale intention for subscription as well as the responder's characteristics, the characteristics & attitudes of the related service. We also apply the developed method to an estimation of the market potential of the digital multimedia broadcasting (DMB) service. As a result, an optimistic and a pessimistic estimates of DMB market potential are 41.10% and 14.83% of the cellular subscribers respectively.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1232-1255
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• 2011

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.