• Title/Summary/Keyword: Market Timing

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Using correlated volume index to support investment strategies in Kospi200 future market (거래량 지표를 이용한 코스피200 선물 매매 전략)

  • Cho, Seong-Hyun;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.235-244
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we propose a new trading strategy by using a trading volume index in KOSPI200 futures market. Many studies have been conducted with respect to the relationship between volume and price, but none of them is clearly concluded. This study analyzes the economic usefulness of investment strategy, using volume index. This analysis shows that the trading volume is a preceding index. This paper contains two objectives. The first objective is to make an index using Correlated Volume Index (CVI) and second objective is to find an appropriate timing to buy or sell the Kospi200 future index. The results of this study proved the importance of the proposed model in KOSPI200 futures market, and it will help many investors to make the right investment decision.

The Life Course Events and the Career Interruption among Korean Women (여성의 경력단절 기간별 생애사건 효과분석)

  • Min, Hyun-Joo
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.53-72
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    • 2011
  • This study analyzes the effects of life course events and labor market conditions on the duration of career interruption among Korean women. The data were drawn from 'A Survey on the Women's Employment Interruption in Korea' conducted by the Korean Ministry of Gender Equality in 2009(currently the Korean Ministry of Gender Equality and Family). This study categorizes the duration of career interruption into three categories: (1) short term interruption(less than 12months), (2) short-medium term interruptio(12-35 months), (3) intermediate term interruption(36-59 months), (4) long term interruption(longer than 36 months), and then analyzes how demographic factors, labor market condition, and life events shape the timing of re-entry into the labor market among women. According to the findings, the jobs that are conducive to combining market work and mother's role expedite women's return to the labor market. Further, the younger, higher the level of human capital, and higher monthly wages that women earned before leaving the labor market, women are likely to experience short-term interruption(less than 12 months) rather than long-term interruption(longer than 60 months). Women who left from the labor market to care for kids are also likely to return to the labor market. However, women who have preschoolers are likely to experience long-term career interruption. These findings highlight the role of family supportive culture at the workplace in order for women to continue their employment while intensive family formation period. Furthermore, the finding that the discriminatory practices against women, in particular mother workers at the workplace lead women to exit from the market work calls for attention to establish family friendly workplace.

Trading Strategies in Bulk Shipping: the Application of Artificial Neural Networks

  • Yun, Hee-Sung;Lim, Sang-Seop;Lee, Ki-Hwan
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.337-343
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    • 2016
  • The core decisions of bulk shipping businesses can be summarized as the timing and the choice of period for which carrying capacity is traded. In particular, frequent decisions to trade freight either with repeated spot transactions or with a one-off long-term deal critically impact business performance. Even though a variety of freight trading strategies can be employed to facilitate the decisions, chartering practitioners have not been active in utilizing these strategies, and academic research has rarely proposed applicable solutions. The specific properties of freight as a tradable commodity are not properly reflected in existing studies, and limitations have been reported in their application to the real world. This research focused on the establishment of applicable freight trading strategies by taking into account two properties of freight: time perishability and term-dependant pricing. In addition to traditional trading strategies, artificial neural networks were applied for the first time to the test of freight trading strategies. The performances of the trading strategies were measured and compared to produce a remarkable outperformance of the ANN. This research is expected to make a significant contribution to chartering practices by enhancing the quality of chartering decisions and eventually enabling the effective management of freight rate risk. In addition to methodological expansion, the result will propose a way to approach the controversial issue of freight market efficiency.

Limiting the Number of Open Projects to Shorten the NPD Schedule

  • Wang, Miao-Ling;Yang, Chun-I;Chang, Sheng-Hung
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.34-42
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    • 2011
  • Many companies open multiple projects simultaneously due to market trends, which results in a crowding out effect because of limited resources. R&D engineers become overloaded and scheduling of product development is delayed resulting in timing misses and lost sales leads. The company in this case study (Company A), often opens up many projects simultaneously in order to respond to market needs quickly. The engineers are overloaded and, of course, the schedule is delayed. In order to identify problems, Company A began using Dr. Goldratt's Thinking Processes (TP) during new product development (NPD). When the analysis phase of TP was completed, Company A's core problem was identified as "the quantity of kick-off projects." Consequently, new rules and conditions and procedures were proposed for the opening, suspending, stopping, and closing of projects. Finally, the "Future Reality Tree" ensured that the proposed rules, conditions and procedures were set up as an available solution approved for practical application by executives. After a one-year trial run, the results showed that the Project Duration Rate was reduced by 53%, the Project Closed Rate was increased by 140% and the Project on Time Rate was increased from 10% to 68%. The above results give significant evidence of the benefits of the proposed methodology.

A Study on the Optimal Trading Frequency Pattern and Forecasting Timing in Real Time Stock Trading Using Deep Learning: Focused on KOSDAQ (딥러닝을 활용한 실시간 주식거래에서의 매매 빈도 패턴과 예측 시점에 관한 연구: KOSDAQ 시장을 중심으로)

  • Song, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Suk-Jun
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.123-140
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    • 2018
  • Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore the optimal trading frequency which is useful for stock price prediction by using deep learning for charting image data. We also want to identify the appropriate time for accurate forecasting of stock price when performing pattern analysis. Design/methodology/approach In order to find the optimal trading frequency patterns and forecast timings, this study is performed as follows. First, stock price data is collected using OpenAPI provided by Daishin Securities, and candle chart images are created by data frequency and forecasting time. Second, the patterns are generated by the charting images and the learning is performed using the CNN. Finally, we find the optimal trading frequency patterns and forecasting timings. Findings According to the experiment results, this study confirmed that when the 10 minute frequency data is judged to be a decline pattern at previous 1 tick, the accuracy of predicting the market frequency pattern at which the market decreasing is 76%, which is determined by the optimal frequency pattern. In addition, we confirmed that forecasting of the sales frequency pattern at previous 1 tick shows higher accuracy than previous 2 tick and 3 tick.

A Case Study on the Overseas Patent Application Strategies of Korean Innovative Companies (사례를 통해 살펴본 기술혁신형 기업의 해외출원 전략)

  • Kwak, Hyun;Kwak, Choong Mok
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.169-183
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    • 2020
  • In order to strengthen competitiveness of Korean companies in the intensifying global market, it is crucial to establish preemptive strategy for filing and securing overseas patent in connection with the company strategies. Therefore, this study conducted in-depth interviews with technology innovative companies such as bio-life, manufacturing industry, information and communication, and information service industries with overseas application experience. By analyzing overseas patent application strategy for selecting a patent application route and country, reducing costs, utilizing agents, and adjusting the timing of the examination request according to the internal and external environment of the company, the direction of establishing an overseas patent application strategy for companies considering the overseas market entry was suggested.

Information in the Implied Volatility Curve of Option Prices and Implications for Financial Distribution Industry (옵션 내재 변동성곡선의 정보효과와 금융 유통산업에의 시사점)

  • Kim, Sang-Su;Liu, Won-Suk;Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the importance of the slope and curvature of the volatility curve implied in option prices in the KOSPI 200 options index. A number of studies examine the implied volatility curve, however, these usually focus on cross-sectional characteristics such as the volatility smile. Contrary to previous studies, we focus on time-series characteristics; we investigate correlation dynamics among slope, curvature, and level of the implied volatility curve to capture market information embodied therein. Our study may provide useful implications for investors to utilize current market expectations in managing portfolios dynamically and efficiently. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical purpose, we gathered daily KOSPI200 index option prices executed at 2:50 pm in the Korean Exchange distribution market during the period of January 2, 2004 and January 31, 2012. In order to measure slope and curvature of the volatility curve, we use approximated delta distance; the slope is defined as the difference of implied volatilities between 15 delta call options and 15 delta put options; the curvature is defined as the difference between out-of-the-money (OTM) options and at-the-money (ATM) options. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method to verify correlations among level, slope, and curvature of the implied volatility curve with statistical support. Results - We find that slope as well as curvature is positively correlated with volatility level, implying that put option prices increase in a downward market. Further, we find that curvature and slope are positively correlated; however, the relation is weakened at deep moneyness. The results lead us to examine whether slope decreases monotonically as the delta increases, and it is verified with statistical significance that the deeper the moneyness, the lower the slope. It enables us to infer that when volatility surges above a certain level due to any tail risk, investors would rather take long positions in OTM call options, expecting market recovery in the near future. Conclusions - Our results are the evidence of the investor's increasing hedging demand for put options when downside market risks are expected. Adding to this, the slope and curvature of the volatility curve may provide important information regarding the timing of market recovery from a nosedive. For financial product distributors, using the dynamic relation among the three key indicators of the implied volatility curve might be helpful in enhancing profit and gaining trust and loyalty. However, it should be noted that our implications are limited since we do not provide rigorous evidence for the predictability power of volatility curves. Meaning, we need to verify whether the slope and curvature of the volatility curve have statistical significance in predicting the market trough. As one of the verifications, for instance, the performance of trading strategy based on information of slope and curvature could be tested. We reserve this for the future research.

A study on the effect of Octane-Number on combustion characteristics and vehicle performance (옥탄가 차이가 연소특성 및 차량 성능에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Noh, Kyeong-ha;Kim, Jung-hwan;Lee, Min-ho;Kim, Ki-ho
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the combustion characteristics and emissions, fuel economy, acceleration by selecting the two fuel with octane number difference to investigate the effect on the combustion characteristics and performance of the vehicle according to the octane number. First, a single-cylinder engine was used for the combustion characteristic experiment, Of the fuel, which is distributed on the market by the selection of two different octane fuel it is performed experiments. Single cylinder experiment examined the combustion characteristics that appear when you gradually advancing the ignition timing by the ignition timing and air-fuel ratio control for each fuel and through an output, emissions, pressure, hence examined the correlation between by octane number. In addition through the actual vehicle compared the changes in the fuel octane number difference, through acceleration tests examined the impact of the octane number requirements for high-performance segment. As a result, fuel of high octane number in accordance with the ignition timing the advancing showed a slightly stable combustion characteristics, a slight increase occurred in the acceleration test and power. However, both fuel does not significantly differ from the current mode, simulating the urban and highway fuel efficiency. Therefore, the operating conditions of the vehicle currently being sold on the Effects of high-octane fuel. fuel efficiency was found insufficient.

An Analysis on the North-Africa Entry Strategies of Korea Logistics Companies (한국 물류기업의 북아프리카 진출 전략에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Choi, Hyuk-Jun
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.47-65
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    • 2012
  • Africa has got largely attention from around the world and industrial advanced countries mainly have focused their interest on the continent for the purposes of natural resources development or economic cooperation. Such is in part for their exploiting new logistics. Central America, Oceania and Africa are together now emerging as a new mecca for resources development and global logistics. Considering that Western countries are heavily investing in and preoccupying both social overhead infrastructure and logistics in Africa, it is expected that it will be new opportunities for domestic logistics companies. This research is focused on studying strategies for logistics companies to open Africa, especially Northern African market. For this, the method of questionnaire is applied for related companies. And it also considers proper time for the opening the market, how to enter, geographical market range and interests of countries there. From the result, it is important the timing for entering the market, which means competitive edge gets better with fast making inroads into the market. And strategic alliance is revealed more effective. In addition, geographical market range is another important factor in low infrastructure of logistics in Africa. It is shown that relations between governments have directly effect on business activities. It should be kept in mind that African countries have their big influences on the market.

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Forecasting the Growth of Smartphone Market in Mongolia Using Bass Diffusion Model (Bass Diffusion 모델을 활용한 스마트폰 시장의 성장 규모 예측: 몽골 사례)

  • Anar Bataa;KwangSup Shin
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.193-212
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    • 2022
  • The Bass Diffusion Model is one of the most successful models in marketing research, and management science in general. Since its publication in 1969, it has guided marketing research on diffusion. This paper illustrates the usage of the Bass diffusion model, using mobile cellular subscription diffusion as a context. We fit the bass diffusion model to three large developed markets, South Korea, Japan, and China, and the emerging markets of Vietnam, Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. We estimate the parameters of the bass diffusion model using the nonlinear least square method. The diffusion of mobile cellular subscriptions does follow an S-curve in every case. After acquiring m, p, and q parameters we use k-Means Cluster Analysis for grouping countries into three groups. By clustering countries, we suggest that diffusion rates and patterns are similar, where countries with emerging markets can follow in the footsteps of countries with developed markets. The purpose was to predict the timing and the magnitude of the market maturity and to determine whether the data follow the typical diffusion curve of innovations from the Bass model.