• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.176-180
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• 2001

In Korea, the mobile telecommunication service market is expanding rapidly and becoming more competitive. For service providers in such a dynamic environment, it is very important to accurately forecast demand including market potential in order to work out marketing strategies. In this paper, we suggest a general approach to forecast the market potential using a multinomial logit model, which is applied to individual-level market survey data. Then we develop a dynamic market potential model that can adapt to changes in the external environment without requiring further market survey. The proposed model is applied to the mobile telecommunication service market in Korea.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.45-62
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• 2016

This paper analyzes changes in the export potential and competitiveness of China, Japan, and Korea. The analysis of Japan's export market share reveals that in sectors where Korea's potential was strong in the early 1990s, Japan's market share diminished. This suggests the possibility that Korea was catching up with Japan, eating into Japan's market share. The same analysis of Korea's export market share in the 2000s shows, for items in which China's export potential was high, Korea's market share has declined comparatively since 2010, with the tendency growing much larger. China's export potential continues to expand in markets for Korea's key export products, making it difficult to rule out the possibility that Korea's competitiveness in key export products will be hindered, driven by the catching up of China. To respond to these challenges, it is important for Korea continuously to foster and enhance creative and core capabilities that latecomers will not easily be able to emulate.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.691-700
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• 2023

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the diffusion pattern of the Mongolian mobile phone market. In particular, we used a generalized diffusion model to explore the factors affecting market potenial. Methods: We used three diffusion models to estimate the number of mobile subscribers in Mongolia. Based on the Logistic model with the best fitness, we introduced time-varying market potential and explored the influence of various independent variables such as GDP and inflation. Results: Among the basic diffusion models, the Logistic model was the best in terms of estimation performance and statistical significance. The estimation results of the Generalized Logistic model confirm that investment in the telecommunication sector has a significant positive effect on market potential. The estimation of the Generalized Logistic model effectively describes the continuous growth of the Mongolian telecommunications market until recently. Conclusion: We have analyzed the diffusion pattern of the Mongolian telecommunications market and found that the amount of investment in the sector leads to the growth of the market size. This study is original in terms of its subject - Mongolian telecommunications market and methodology - time-varying market potential.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.41-47
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• 2012

The Asian food market has been growing recently, due to the role played by major Asian countries, which include Korea, China, and Japan. This study is purposed to investigate the potential of the food market in these Northeast Asian countries and to suggest future direction for global food companies. For in-depth analysis, this study is limited in scope to the confectionery market and analyzes that market within two frameworks: first, the 'Market Attractiveness Matrix' which transforms the 'BCG Matrix' to fit into the food market in order to analyze the flow in the Asian confectionery market; and second, analysis of the potential growth of the market using a Category Development Index (CDI), which aids in understanding the growth potential of a market. The European food market has recently reached its capacity and is now experiencing a low growth rate (Data Monitor, 2011). It is time for food companies to find a new 'blue ocean' to avoid fierce competition in the mature markets of Europe. Therefore, this analysis of the confectionery market, using the Market Attractiveness Matrix and CDI will suggest opportune directions for global food companies.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.79-112
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• 2007

대외개방의 진전은 해외로부터의 실재적 경쟁(actual competition)과 잠재적 경쟁(potential competition)을 동시에 촉진할 수 있다. 경쟁정책을 집행하는 데 있어 지금까지 경쟁당국은 국내시장에서 수입품이 차지하는 비율, 즉 실재적 해외경쟁만을 고려해 온 경향이 있으며, 잠재적 경쟁에 대한 고려는 상대적으로 적었던 것으로 판단된다. 본 논문은 수입침투율의 국내시장조건에 대한 동태적 반응을 잠재적 경쟁의 측정지표로 사용하여 해외로부터의 잠재적 경쟁이 한국의 산업별 시장구조에 따라 어떤 차이를 가지는가를 살펴보는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 동태적 패널모형을 이용한 실증분석의 결과, 해외로부터의 잠재적 경쟁이 유의하게 존재하며, 이는 국내시장구조가 상대적으로 독과점화되어 있는 경우 보다 강하게 나타난다는 것을 발견하였다. 이러한 결과는 국내시장구조만으로 경쟁의 정도를 파악하는 데에는 한계가 있으며, 따라서 경쟁정책의 왜곡을 줄이기 위해서는 해외부문과의 잠재적 경쟁을 적절히 반영하는 것이 필요하다는 것을 시사해 주는 것이라고 할 수 있을 것이다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제55권6호
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• pp.259-264
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• 2006

This paper addresses the collusive bidding that functions as a potential obstacle to a fully competitive wholesale electricity market. Cooperative game is formulated and the equation of its Nash Equilibrium (NE) is derived on the basis of the supply function model. Gencos' willingness to selectively collude is expressed through a bargain theory. A Collusion Incentive Index(CII) for representing the willingness is defined through computing the Gencos' profits at NE. In order to keep the market non-cooperative, the market operator has to know the highest potentially collusive combination among the Gencos. Another index, which will be called the Collusion Monitoring Index(CMI), is suggested to detect the highest potential collusion and it is calculated using the marginal cost functions of the Gencos without any computation of NE. The effectiveness of CMI for detecting the highest potential collusion is verified through application on many test market cases.

• 마케팅과학연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.141-159
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 신규서비스에 대한 수요를 분석하기 위한 설문에서 다점척도로 조사된 신규서비스에 대한 응답자들의 가입의향을 함께 조사된 응답자특성 및 대상 신규서비스와 관련된 속성/태도 등의 요인변수들을 이용하여 효과적으로 설명할 수 있는 순위반응모형(Ordered Response Model)을 통한 확산모형의 잠재시장규모 추정 방안을 제시하였다. 또한, 제시된 순위반응모형에 의한 신규서비스의 잠재시장규모 추정 방안을 곧 도입될 예정인 디지털멀티미디어방송(DMB)서비스에 대해 적용한 결과, DMB서비스의 잠재시장규모는 낙관적인 상황과 비관적인 상황으로 구분할 때 각각 이동전화가입자의 41.10% 및 14.83%로 추정되었다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.45-59
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• 2013

A long-term forecasting method for a new product in early stage of diffusion is proposed. The method includes a constrained non-linear least square estimation with the logistic diffusion model. The constraints would be critical market informations such as market potential, peak point, and take-off. Findings on 20 cases having almost full life cycle are that (i) combining any market information improves the forecasting accuracy, (ii) market potential is the most stable information, and (iii) peak point and take-off information have negative effect in case of overestimation.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.53-68
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• 1993

The field of marketing research in the satellite communication services is still in the early stage of its development. Particularly, in Korean domestic satellite service market, many theoretical and methodological opportunities now exist. In this paper we develop a model, which identifies target markets and promising application services in Korean satellite communication service Market. One key contribution of this paper is a modeling approach to the assessment of market potential and priorities of the application services in each Korean industry. We define and estimate the degree of attractiveness for each segmented market which represents the market potential estimated by current usage of terrestrial services and each market segment's willingness to adopt satellite technology. Since all possible satellite application services are not equally important in the market, they should be differentiated in terms of the likelihood of success. We introduce another index prioritizing application services by tying together three important factors affecting Korean satellite service demand. Some marketing implications of model results are also discussed. Finally the findings of our model are compared with those of other similar studies.

• 한국언론정보학보
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• 제41권
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• pp.181-199
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• 2008

지역신문 위기를 진단하고 분석한 대부분의 연구들은 개별 원인들의 경중을 간과해 왔다. 지역신문 활성화를 위한 다양한 정책이 집행되고 있지만 아직까지 가시적인 성과를 보이지 못하는 것도 정책을 집중할 대상, 즉 핵심 원인들에 대한 파악이 잘못된 탓일 수도 있다. 이에 이 연구는 지역신문의 위기를 초래한 다양한 원인들을 통계적으로 검증해 보고자 한다. 그동안의 연구 성과에 따라, 위기의 원인을 중앙집권적인 정치 구조, 광고 잠재 시장, 구독 잠재 시장, 그리고 지역산문 간 경쟁 이상 네 가지로 나눈 뒤, 이를 지역보도 비중으로 대변되는 지역성과의 관계를 45개 지역신문을 대상으로 살펴보았다. 그 결과 그동안 학계의 주장과는 달리, 중앙집권적인 정치 구조와 구독 잠재 시장은 통계적으로 의미가 없었던 것에 비해서, 광고 잠재 시장과 지역신문 간 경쟁만이 통계적으로 유의미한 결과를 보였다. 그러나 광고 잠재 시장이 부정적 회귀계수 값을 가진 것에 비해서 지역신문 간 경쟁은 긍정적 회귀계수값을 보여 방향성에 차이를 보여주었다. 이러한 결과는 지역신문 간 경쟁이 치열한 곳에서는 생존전략 차원에서 지역 관련 보도의 비중을 확대하는 반면에 광고 잠재 시장이 각 지역신문의 생존을 담보해 주는 상황에서는 지역신문이 동종 지역신문과의 경쟁보다는 중앙지와의 경쟁에 초점을 두기 때문에 지역성보다는 전국성에 비중을 두는 것으로 해석할 수 있다.