• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.104-114
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• 2019

In the global market competition, countries and businesses are actively engaged in technology prediction activities to maximize their profits by attempting to enter and preempting the core technology of the future. In this paper, we propose a growth model based on patent application trends to predict the time to replace a product with a promising new technology to dominate the market. Although the Fisher-Pry model that Bhargava generalized to predict the emergence of promising alternative technologies was relatively satisfactory compared to the original Fisher-Pry model, it was difficult to predict the replacement rate behavior properly due to a parameter problem. The application of the Fisher-Pry Modification Model in the form of a quadratic equation through the patent trend analysis of the optical storage system for the purpose of verifying the time alternative to the light storage technology has resulted in satisfactory verification results. It is expected that small and medium-sized companies and individual researchers will apply this model and use it more easily to predict the time to replace the market for promising replacement technologies.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.69-79
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• 2014

Coastal wetlands are among the most productive biomes in the Earth. The economic values include the direct use of a coastal wetland's ecosystem services, such as food, raw materials, recreation, and tourism. Other values comprise the indirect use of a coastal wetland's ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, waste-water treatment, and erosion prevention. In particular, Suncheon Bay is recently attracting attention as the most successful case of the preservation and restoration. This study applies Travel Cost Method (TCM) to estimate the economic value by drawing the demand curve for trips to Suncheon Bay. The TCM is an approach used for economic valuation of non-market goods and services. Based on the results of TCM, this study shows that the economic benefit from recreational uses of the site adds up to \174.7 billion per year. It is also significant in the sense that monetary information is suggested to help local policy makers evaluate the realistic values of coastal wetlands.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.255-273
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• 2014

The widespread use of smart phones and smart pads has given rise to the use of eBook services based on these smart devices. Consequently, the size of eBook services has exploded both in the domestic as well as overseas market. However, the growth curve becomes flatter than before, and the adoption rate is still not high in Korea. Hence, this study explores the factors affecting the intention to use eBook services based on smart devices, and their relationships. Finally, we propose an eBook adoption model, which extends the Technology Adoption Model. An online survey was conducted to validate the research model. By applying Partial Least Squares, we found that there are strong relationships among perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, perceived playfulness, social influence, and intention to use. In addition, we found that smart devices enjoyment positively affects the perceived playfulness of eBooks, and that personal innovativeness positively affects perceived ease of use. Our findings shed some light on how to design eBook services based on smart devices.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.333-341
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to forecast the penetration rate of renewable energy and a reasonable scale for the R&D investment plan in Korea based on the relationship between the diffusion and R&D investments drawn by analogy from empirical cases of advanced countries. Among numerous candidate developed countries, the German market was chosen based on the similarity of the diffusion patterns to those of the Korean plan. We then figured out how the investment triggers the growth of technology from the selected benchmark, and applied the technology S-curve relation formula to derive the desirable investment plan for Korea. The present paper is a pioneering attempt to forecast the diffusion process of renewable energy technology in Korea using the comparative analogy from cases of advanced countries.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.38C no.10
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• pp.867-873
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• 2013

Competition policy for growth and activation of market should consider structural nature of relevant industry closely. In this viewpoint, whether domestic MNOs(mobile network operators) are competing while securing the effect of scale economies and maximum production efficiency is an important element when looking for competition policy means of domestic mobile communication market. With this, present study analyzed level of MES (Minimum Efficient Scale) and whether achieving them or not through investigating the relation between the cost per minute and call traffic of domestic MNOs. This analysis is differentiated from existing econometric studies entailing several assumptions by enhancing a reality reflection through directly deducing of cost curve using verified data(cost per minute and call traffic). As a result of analysis, the levels of minimum efficient scale were different from each other between domestic MNOs, and an incumbent MNO(SKT) accomplished minimum efficient scale while entrant MNOs(KT and LGU+) could not yet reach minimum efficient scale level. This result demonstrates a gap exists in production efficiency level among domestic MNOs and implies that the policy to alleviate the gap among operators is required when establishing competitive policy in the future.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2923-2934
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• 2009

This paper presents study on technological forecasting of Next-Generation Display technology. Next-Generation Display technology is one of the emerging technologies lately. So databases on patent documents of this technology were analyzed first. And patent analysis was performed for finding out present technology trend. And the forecast for this technology was made by growth curves which were obtained from forecast models using patent documents. In previous study, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass were used for forecasting diffusion of demand in market. Gompertz, Logistic models which were often used for technological forecasting, too. So, two models were applied in this study. But Gompertz, Logistic models only consider internal effect of diffusion. And it is difficult to estimate maximum value of growth in two models. So, Bass model which considers both internal effect and external effect of diffusion was also applied. And maximum value of growth in Gompertz, Logistic models was estimated by Bass model.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.29 no.12
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• pp.1267-1271
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• 2012

Demand for optical glass device used for lighting could increase rapidly because of LED lighting market growth. The optical glass devices that have been formed by hot press molding process the desired optical performance without being subjected to mechanical processing such as curve generation or grinding. EL-Max material has been used for many engineering applications because of their high wear resistance, high compressive strength, corrosion resistant and very good dimensional stability. EL-Max is very useful for a glass lens mold especially at high temperature and pressure. The performance and reliability of optical components are strongly influenced by the surface damage of EL-Max during grinding process. Therefore, the severe process condition optimization shall be necessary for the highly qualified EL-Max glass lens mold. To get the required qualified surface of EL-Max, the selection of type of the diamond wheel is also important. In this paper, we report best grinding conditions of ultra-precision grinding machining. The grinding machining results of the form accuracy and surface roughness have been analyzed by using Form Talysurf and NanoScan.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.107-114
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• 1998

This study aimed for the examination of quality characteristics and safety of potassium sorbate-free meat products. Therefore, experiments were carried out on the frankfurter sausage and pressed ham, which were stored at 4 and 30$^{\circ}C$ for up to 40 days. The potassium sorbate concentrations of the frankfurter sausage and pressed ham obtained from local market ranged from 1.087 to 1.449g / kg, which were below the permitted value as prescribed in the Korean Hygienic Regulation. At the 0 day the total aerobic bacterial counts of frankfurter sausage and pressed ham were in the level of around 103.0 and 103.4 CFU / g, respectively. However, they were prominently increased after 20 days at 4$^{\circ}C$ and 10 days at 30$^{\circ}C$ to higher than 105 CFU / g. After 30 days the counts were increased to 106.5 and 107.2 CFU / g, respectively. The growth curve of lactic acid bacteria was shown to be similar with that of total bacteria. the counts of lactic acid bacteria of the products stored at 4$^{\circ}C$ were 101∼102 CFU / g lower than those stored at 30$^{\circ}C$. Coliform bacteria was not detected in both of the products stored at 4$^{\circ}C$ even after 40 days storage, but after 10 days at the 30$^{\circ}C$. No significant differences in the microbial counts examined in this study were observed between frankfurter sausage and pressed ham. The biochemical tests on the isolated colonies from Clostridein agar showed no presence of Clostridium botulinum and Clostridium perfringens in the meat products examined. The pH of frankfurter sausage and pressed ham at the beginning was about 6.6, which level was maintained relatively constant during the storage at 4$^{\circ}C$, but it was increased after decrease to about 5.5 during the storage at 30$^{\circ}C$. TBA value was increased slightly till 30 days, but after that time increased sharply. VBN value was increased slowly during the whole storage, but it was more than 30 mg% for the samples stored at 30$^{\circ}C$.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.331-359
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• 2009

We forecast the performance of the Korean biotechnology industry by adopting similar development paths taken by the U.S. biotechnology and Korean ICT industries. Our long-term forecasting techniques predict that Korean BT market size will increase from 3.7 billion to 10.8 billion U.S. dollars by year 2030. The pharmaceutical industry, one of major bio-subindustries, is expected to dominate Korean BT market in the long-run. Also, the relative portion of the exports in the Korean BT industry will be larger and thus the export-oriented government policy is required for the long-run growth of the Korean BT industry. Since the Korean ICT industry has already slowed down in the development, Korean BT industry is likely to catch up with ICT industry in the near future.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.493-518
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• 2005

It has been taken for 10 years since Climate Change Convention could it be made. And Kyoto Protocol will come into force as an international law as from 16. Feb 2005. As based on it, Annex I countries will implement their mitigation projects on GHG reductions and press developing countries on GHG reduction target. Korea has not duty target on it yet. But it will be held a COP(Conference of Party) on negotiation for reduction target of second commitment period. If Korea has a real duty, Industry sector should reduce GHG emissions. Then Market mechanism will be need to introduce for this. This study started having a question "Is it possible to introduce emissions trading in Korea?". To solve the problem, this study analysed GHG emissions, marginal abatement cost, market price with 11 companies of industry (about 36% of Korea emissions). minus target is impossible to implement reduction target ver base year (2002). And emissions trading scheme also can't make the market without additional policy and measures. This study suggest that it is need to import credits and give a subsidy of government to encourage it. The imported credit can reduce the demand curve within the marginal abatement cost curves. But the effectiveness of credit is not the same as continually growth. As a result, Allowing 40% credit into emissions trading market is the best to reduce costs. However, a subsidy is the little bit difference. A subsidy make marginal abatement cost curves down for itself. Giving 30% for subsidy, it is the best. Considering both of importing credits and subsidy, it is the best effects in the reducing cost for company. especially 30% is the best effects respectively. This Study show that government wants to consider designing emissions trading, encourage participants competitiveness, and encourage the early action, government has to allow credit trading and give a subsidy to participants.