• Strategy21
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• 통권45호
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• pp.91-115
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• 2019

1997년 Issue Correlates of War(ICOW) 프로젝트 시작 이후 해양관할권 분쟁에 대한 정량적 연구가 미국을 중심으로 활발하게 진행되었다. 이러한 정량적 연구는 일부 해양관할권 분쟁 중심의 사례 연구에 비해 많은 해양관할권 분쟁을 연구 범위에 포함하고 있고, 통계적 오류를 최소화하기 위해 다양한 통계기법을 적용함으로써 광범위한 사례에 적용될 수 있는 일반화된 연구결과를 도출하고 있다. 이번 연구는 ICOW 데이터를 바탕으로 해양관할권 분쟁을 정량적으로 연구한 결과를 분석한 후 독도 문제에 적용될 수 있는 요소를 도출하고, 이를 바탕으로 독도 문제의 평화적 관리 및 해결에 어떤 전략이 효과적일지 설명하고자 한다.

• Strategy21
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• 통권44호
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• pp.103-141
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• 2018

As the South China Sea maritime dispute illustrates, when considering the place where maritime claims occur, states do not have many choices to respond to maritime claims in which disputed areas are located far away from the land and are surrounded by the sea. As Mearsheimer (2014) points out, the sea stops power projection. Therefore, in order to adopt coercive as well as peaceful settlement policies to deal with maritime claims, states need to overcome obstacles (the sea) to project power. It means that if states want to conduct a specific foreign policy action, such as negotiating maritime borderlines or arguing sovereignty on islands, they need a tool (naval power) to coerce or to persuade the opponent. However, there are lack of research that studies maritime claims from the perspective of naval power. This research project fills this gap based on naval power. How do relative levels of naval power and (dis) parities of naval power influence the occurrence of MIDs over maritime claims? Naval power is a constitutive element during maritime claims. If disputants over maritime claims have required naval power to project their capability, it means that they have the capability to apply various ways, such as aggressive options including MIDs, to accomplish their goals. So, I argue that when two claimants have enough naval power to project their capabilities, the likelihood of MIDs over maritime claims increases. Given that one or both states have a certain level of naval power, how does relative naval power between two claimants influence the management of maritime claims? Based on the power transition theory, I argue that when the disparities of relative naval power between claimants becomes distinctive, militarized conflicts surrounding maritime territory are less probable. Based on the ICOW project which codes maritime claims from 1900 to 2001, the empirical results of the Poisson models show if both claimants have projectable naval power, the occurrence of MIDs over maritime claims increases. In addition, the result shows that when disputants maintain similar relative naval powers, they are more likely to initiate MIDs over maritime claims. To put it differently, if naval capabilities' gap between two claimants becomes larger, the probability of the occurrence of MIDs decreases.

• 해양안보
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.1-44
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• 2021

중국의 새로운 해양정책법(Maritime Policy Law: MPL)은 중국해안경비대 등의 중국 해양경찰 기관들의 임무를 규제하고, 중국의 주권, 안보, 권리, 이해관계를 보호한다고 주장한다. [하지만] 중국이 본토 주위 및 남중국해에서 넓은 해역에 대한 권리를 주장하고 있다는 점에서, MPL은 훨씬 광범위하게 적용될 수 있다. 중국이 제기하는 대부분의 해양 주장이 국제법에 부합하지 않는다는 점을 고려하면, 이렇게 해양법 집행 관할권을 광범위하게 적용하는 것은 문제의 소지가 많다. MPL이 분쟁해역 또는 공해에서 외국선적 선박에 대한 관할권을 주장한다면, 이는 국제법 위반이다. 무력 사용에 관한 MPL의 많은 규정 역시, 해양법 집행 관할권의 사용에 관한 국제 규칙 및 기준을 위반한 것이며, 모든 국가의 영토 온전성이나 정치적 독립성에 반하는 위협이나 무력사용을 금하는 유엔헌장에도 위배된다. 중국은 MPL을 남중국해와 동중국해에서 불법적인 영토 및 해양 주장을 제기하기 위한 구실로 사용할 수 있으며, 다른 연안국의 배타적경제수역 내 자원 권리 행사를 방해하기 위한 구실로도 사용할 수 있다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.313-322
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• 2013

The concept of effective control is a crucial element for the acquisition as well as maintenance of territorial title. The general meaning of the concept has been described as 'an intentional display of power and authority over the territory, by the exercise of jurisdiction and State functions, on a continuous and peaceful basis'. The concept has been developed through some significant international cases such as the Island of Palmas case (1928), Legal Status of Eastern Greenland (1933), Minquiers and Ecrehos case (1953), Burkina Faso/Mali case (1986) and Nicaragua/Colombia case (2012). In relation to Dokdo, the concept has an important bearing in regard to Korea's claims of territorial sovereignty over the island. This paper reviews the definition, components and ramifications of the effective control with regard to the acquisition and maintenance of territorial title through analyzing the relevant judgements of international courts and tribunals. Furthermore, it exams the legal ramifications of the current effective control on Dokdo and makes some suggestions for the strengthening of Korea's position on the island.

• Strategy21
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• 통권33호
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• pp.148-177
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• 2014

The regional security and stability in Northeast Asia has become more complicated because of a sudden establishment of China's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on 23 November 2013. One dimensional conflicts on the territorial sovereignty over the islands between the regional States has developed into the two dimensional conflicts like maritime delimitations among the States concerned since they have all ratified the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which adopts the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone regime. Moreover, due to the notion of the outer limit of the continental shelf, the conflicts have developed into three dimensional ones in order to acquire more natural resources even in the seabed. To make matters worse, such three dimensional conflicts have expanded to the airspace as well. The paper will analyze what implications the sudden declaration of China's ADIZ have for the regional security in Northeast Asia from the perspectives of public international law. To this end, the paper 1) starts with the debates on the legal nature of the ADIZ, 2) identifies the Chinese government's political motives for the establishment of the ADIZ over the East China Sea, 3) assesses the responses of the regional States and the USA to the China's establishment of the ADIZ, and then 4) discuss what implications the overlapped ADIZ of the three key States in the region have for the regional security and stability.

• Strategy21
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• 통권40호
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• pp.131-143
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• 2016

On 12 July 2016, China's maritime claim to most of the South China Sea (SCS) based on the so-called nine-dash line was rejected by the Arbitral Tribunal, constituted under Annex VII to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) concerning issues in the South China Sea including the legality of the so-called "nine-dashed line", the status of certain maritime features and their corresponding maritime entitlements, together with the lawfulness of certain actions by China which the Philppines, in a case brought in 2013, alleged were violations. As having the Tribunal determined that China's claim had no legal grounds in UNCLOS, thus undermining China's claims, and establishing that China has no exclusive legal rights to control the area roughly the size of India. There are some major implications from the Tribunal's ruling in the Arbitration award. These include implications on: how to delimit the maritime boundary in disputed waters, how to promote maritime confidence-building measures, how to safeguard maritime safety and security, and how to promote the rule of law in the SCS. Since its application of UNCLOS in East Asia, it has been obvious that the only way to resolve maritime disputes in the region is to build strong maritime cooperative partnerships under the auspices of the rule of law.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.112-129
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• 2018

Produced by Chinese local television stations, Maritime Silk Road is a documentary which adopts ancient Maritime Silk Road as a historical nostalgia to interpret "the Belt and Road Initiative", a contemporary Chinese economic, political, and cultural strategy put forward by Chinese government mainly aiming at the countries of Southeast Asia. The main body of this article has three parts and the first part analyses how the documentary adopts computer-generated imagery (CGI) to create a historical nostalgia about ancient Maritime Silk Road in the period of Imperial China. At the same time, this part also presents a sense of diasporic nostalgia of the overseas Chinese. This historical and diasporic nostalgia is related to Chinese President Xi Jinping's political discourse: "Chinese dream" that propagandises to build a strong China put forward by Xi in 2013. The second part analyses how this historical and diasporic nostalgia legitimates Xi's "Chinese dream" and how it responds to recent territorial dispute when China continuously claims its territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea. In this light, the documentary repeatedly mentions two political rhetoric: "coexistence" (gongcun) and "mutual benefit"(huli gongying) as a practical strategy to deal with the dispute between China and some countries of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In the third section, the concept of "community of common destiny" (mingyun gongtongti) is adopted by the documentary to depict a convenient and effective organization of China and ASEAN, which is framed as an ultimate goal that Chinese government is depicted as the potential leader of this nostalgic community. At the same time, by providing different and even opposite viewpoints, this article discusses three controversial political rhetoric to present how historical and diasporic nostalgia is politicalized and served for Chinese diplomacy and national interest. Overall, this article argues that the documentary creates a glorious ancient Maritime Silk Road, as a sense of nostalgia, to expand China's economic and political influence, to respond to the controversial issues, and to reassert China's leadership as the centre of Asia.

• Strategy21
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• 통권31호
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• pp.220-250
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• 2013

South Korean national security strategy should be developed to effectively handle and counter increasing maritime threats and challenges. There are three major maritime threats South Korea faces today; maritime disputes on the EEZ boundary and Dokdo islet issues, North Korean threats, and international maritime security. Maritime disputes in the region are getting intensified and turned into a military confrontation after 2010. Now regional countries confront each other with military and police forces and use economic leverage to coerce the others. They are very eager to create advantageous de facto situations to legitimize their territorial claims. North Korean threat is also increasing in the sea as we witnessed in the Cheonan incident and Yeonpyoung shelling in 2010. North Korea resorts to local provocations and nuclear threats to coerce South Korea in which it may enjoy asymmetric advantages. The NLL area of the west sea would be a main hot spot that North Korea may continue to make a local provocation. Also, South Korean national economy is heavily dependent upon foreign trade and national strategic resources such as oil are all imported. Without an assurance on the safety of sea routes, these economic activities cannot be maintained and expanded. This paper argues that South Korea should make national maritime strategy and enhance the strength of naval forces. As a middle power, its national security strategy needs to consider all the threats and challenges not only from North Korea but also to maritime security. This is not a matter of choice but a mandate for national survival and prosperity. This paper discusses the importance of maritime security, changing characteristics of maritime threats and challenges, regional maritime disputes and its threat to South Korea's security, and South Korea's future security strategy and ways to enhance the role of naval forces. Our national maritime strategy needs to show middle and long term policy directions on how we will protect our maritime interests. Especially, it is important to build proper naval might to carry out all the roles and missions required to the military.

• 해양환경안전학회:학술대회논문집
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• 해양환경안전학회 2003년도 추계학술발표회
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• pp.35-44
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• 2003

본 연구는 제주해협의 통항문제를 유엔해양법협약을 기초로 검토하여 제주해협의 국제법상 지위 및 이에 상응하는 통항제도를 구체적으로 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 제주해협의 지리적 특성, 유엔해양법협약상의 통항제도, 제주해협의 통항문제 및 북한상선의 제주해협문제 등을 고찰한다.

• Strategy21
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• 통권38호
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• pp.287-320
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• 2015

On October 27, 2015, USS Lassen(DDG82), a 9,200 ton class Aegis destroyer of the United States Navy, began its operations within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef, one of the seven artificial islands that China has built and claimed sovereignty over. The maneuver was joined by anti-submarine patrol airplanes such as P-8A and P-3. The White House press secretary mentioned that the President of the United States approved the operation. In response, China announced that it warned the US Navy ship about the 'illegal violation' by sending two destroyers(PLAN Lanzhou and Taizhou). This event represents a close call case where tension between the United States and China in the South China Sea might have been elevated to a conflict between the two navies. Moreover, considering that this happened only one month after Chinese president Xi's state visit to the United States, the event shows that the positions of the two countries have become starkly different to the extent that they are so hard to be reconciled. The United States' position is different from those of Vietnam and the Philippines. Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines have been directly involved in disputes with regard to sovereignty claims across the waters in the South China sea. As for the United States, being a third party in the disputes, it still cannot be a by-stander watching the whole waters in the region fall under the influence of China. Accordingly, the United States maintains that all countries bear the rights of innocent passage and military operations in the Exclusive Economic Zones(EEZ) as stipulated by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS). In contrast, China claims that, historically, the South China sea has been part of China's territorial waters, and that foreign countries are not allowed to conduct military operations within the waters. It strongly accuses that such military operations are illegal. Against this background, this paper tracks the different positions of the United States and China on the issues regarding the South China sea. It also carefully looks at the possibility that, in the process of dealing with the issues, the two countries may get into an armed conflict as the phrase 'Thucydides Trap' predicts.