• 제목/요약/키워드: Marginal structural model

검색결과 19건 처리시간 0.023초

로지스틱회귀모형의 평가를 위한 그래픽적 방법 (Various Graphical Methods for Assessing a Logistic Regression Model)

  • 김경진;강명욱
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제28권6호
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    • pp.1191-1208
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    • 2015
  • 대부분의 통계분석방법은 요약통계량에 의존하지만 그래픽적 방법을 이용하면 자료의 특성을 파악하기 쉽고 통계량만으로는 알아낼 수 없는 부분까지도 접근이 가능하다. 그래프를 통한 로지스틱회귀모형의 평가 방법으로 로그-밀도비를 통한 검토, 차원 검토, 주변모형산점도, 카이잔차산점도, CERES 그림을 알아보고 모의자료들을 통해 다양한 상황에서 그래픽적 방법들 어떠한 결과를 나타내지를 비교 검토한다.

Kinematic Interpretation for the Development of the Yeonghae Basin, Located at the Northeastern Part of the Yangsan Fault, Korea

  • Altaher, Zooelnon Abdelwahed;Park, Kiwoong;Kim, Young-Seog
    • 지질공학
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.467-482
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    • 2022
  • The Yeonghae basin is located at the northeastern part of the Yangsan fault (YSF; a potentially active fault). The study of the architecture of the Yeonghae basin is important to understand the activity of the Yangsan fault system (YSFS) as well as the basin formation mechanism and the activity of the YSFS. For this study, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to highlight the marginal faults, and structural fieldwork was performed to understand the geometry of the intra-basinal structures and the nature of the bounding faults. DEM analysis reveals that the eastern margin is bounded by the northern extension of the YSF whereas the western margin is bounded by two curvilinear sub-parallel faults; Baekseokri fault (BSF) and Gakri fault (GF). The field data indicate that the YSF is striking in the N-S direction, steeply dipping to the east, and experienced both sinistral and dextral strike-slip movements. Both the BSF and GF are characterized dominantly by an oblique right-lateral strike-slip movement. The stress indicators show that the maximum horizontal compressional stress was in NNE to NE and NNW-SSE, which is consistent with right-lateral and left-lateral movements of the YSFS, respectively. The plotted structural data show that the NE-SW is the predominant direction of the structural elements. This indicates that the basin and marginal faults are mainly controlled by the right-lateral strike-slip movements of the YSFS. Based on the structural architecture of the Yeonghae basin, the study area represents a contractional zone rather than an extensional zone in the present time. We proposed two models to explain the opening and developing mechanism of the Yeonghae basin. The first model is that the basin developed as an extensional pull-apart basin during the left-lateral movement of the YSF, which has been reactivated by tectonic inversion. In the second model, the basin was developed as an extensional zone at a dilational quadrant of an old tip zone of the northern segment of the YSF during the right-lateral movement stage. Later on, the basin has undergone a shortening stage due to the closing of the East Sea. The second model is supported by the major trend of the collected structural data, indicating predominant right-lateral movement. This study enables us to classify the Yeonghae basin as an inverted strike-slip basin. Moreover, two opposite strike-slip movement senses along the eastern marginal fault indicate multiple deformation stages along the Yangsan fault system developed along the eastern margin of the Korean peninsula.

Minimum life-cycle cost design of ice-resistant offshore platforms

  • Li, Gang;Zhang, Da-Yong;Yue, Qian-Jin
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.11-24
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    • 2009
  • In China, the oil and natural gas resources of Bohai Bay are mainly marginal oil fields. It is necessary to build both ice-resistant and economical offshore platforms. However, risk is involved in the design, construction, utilization, maintenance of offshore platforms as uncertain events may occur within the life-cycle of a platform under the extreme ice load. In this study, the optimum design model of the expected life-cycle cost for ice-resistant platforms based on cost-effectiveness criterion is proposed. Multiple performance demands of the structure, facilities and crew members, associated with the failure assessment criteria and evaluation functions of costs of construction, consequences of structural failure modes including damage, revenue loss, death and injury as well as discounting cost over time are considered. An efficient approximate method of the global reliability analysis for the offshore platforms is provided, which converts the implicit nonlinear performance function in the conventional reliability analysis to linear explicit one. The proposed life-cycle optimum design formula are applied to a typical ice-resistant platform in Bohai Bay, and the results demonstrate that the life-cycle cost-effective optimum design model is more rational compared to the conventional design.

지대주 연결 형태와 골질에 따른 저작압이 임프란트 주위골내 응력분포에 미치는 영향 (Study on the stress distribution depending on the bone type and implant abutment connection by finite element analysis)

  • 박현수;임성빈;정진형;홍기석
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • 제36권2호
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    • pp.531-554
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    • 2006
  • Oral implants must fulfill certain criteria arising from special demands of function, which include biocompatibility, adequate mechanical strength, optimum soft and hard tissue integration, and transmission of functional forces to bone within physiological limits. And one of the critical elements influencing the long-term uncompromise functioning of oral implants is load distribution at the implant- bone interface, Factors that affect the load transfer at the bone-implant interface include the type of loading, material properties of the implant and prosthesis, implant geometry, surface structure, quality and quantity of the surrounding bone, and nature of the bone-implant interface. To understand the biomechanical behavior of dental implants, validation of stress and strain measurements is required. The finite element analysis (FEA) has been applied to the dental implant field to predict stress distribution patterns in the implant-bone interface by comparison of various implant designs. This method offers the advantage of solving complex structural problems by dividing them into smaller and simpler interrelated sections by using mathematical techniques. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the stresses induced around the implants in bone using FEA, A 3D FEA computer software (SOLIDWORKS 2004, DASSO SYSTEM, France) was used for the analysis of clinical simulations. Two types (external and internal) of implants of 4.1 mm diameter, 12.0 mm length were buried in 4 types of bone modeled. Vertical and oblique forces of lOON were applied on the center of the abutment, and the values of von Mises equivalent stress at the implant-bone interface were computed. The results showed that von Mises stresses at the marginal. bone were higher under oblique load than under vertical load, and the stresses were higher at the lingual marginal bone than at the buccal marginal bone under oblique load. Under vertical and oblique load, the stress in type I, II, III bone was found to be the highest at the marginal bone and the lowest at the bone around apical portions of implant. Higher stresses occurred at the top of the crestal region and lower stresses occurred near the tip of the implant with greater thickness of the cortical shell while high stresses surrounded the fixture apex for type N. The stresses in the crestal region were higher in Model 2 than in Model 1, the stresses near the tip of the implant were higher in Model 1 than Model 2, and Model 2 showed more effective stress distribution than Model.

The Bivariate Kumaraswamy Weibull regression model: a complete classical and Bayesian analysis

  • Fachini-Gomes, Juliana B.;Ortega, Edwin M.M.;Cordeiro, Gauss M.;Suzuki, Adriano K.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.523-544
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    • 2018
  • Bivariate distributions play a fundamental role in survival and reliability studies. We consider a regression model for bivariate survival times under right-censored based on the bivariate Kumaraswamy Weibull (Cordeiro et al., Journal of the Franklin Institute, 347, 1399-1429, 2010) distribution to model the dependence of bivariate survival data. We describe some structural properties of the marginal distributions. The method of maximum likelihood and a Bayesian procedure are adopted to estimate the model parameters. We use diagnostic measures based on the local influence and Bayesian case influence diagnostics to detect influential observations in the new model. We also show that the estimates in the bivariate Kumaraswamy Weibull regression model are robust to deal with the presence of outliers in the data. In addition, we use some measures of goodness-of-fit to evaluate the bivariate Kumaraswamy Weibull regression model. The methodology is illustrated by means of a real lifetime data set for kidney patients.

경제충격 시기의 한계소비성향 분석 - FIML 마코프-스위칭 모형 이용 (Marginal Propensity to Consume with Economic Shocks - FIML Markov-Switching Model Analysis)

  • 윤재호;이주형
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권11호
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    • pp.6565-6575
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    • 2014
  • 본 논문에서 Hamilton의 마코프-스위칭 모형을 연립방정식으로 확장한 FIML 마코프-스위칭 모형을 제시해 보았다. 본 논문의 FIML 마코프-스위칭 모형을 LIML 마코프-스위칭 모형 등과 비교하면 LIML 마코프-스위칭 모형은 FIML 마코프-스위칭 모형의 특별한 경우이며 FIML 마코프-스위칭 모형은 연립방정식으로 확장된 일반화된 모형 형태를 띄게 된다. 본 논문의 FIML 마코프-스위칭 모형을 Campbell and Mankiw 소비함수에 적용해 본 결과, 2008년 부동산 거품 붕괴와 같은 경제충격 시기의 한계소비성향은 매우 민감도가 높아진다는 것을 알 수 있다.

A Probabilistic Corrosion Rate Estimation Model for Longitudinal Strength Members of Bulk Carriers

  • Paik, Jeom-Kee;Kim, Sung-Kyu;Lee, Sang-Kon;Park, Young-Eel
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.58-70
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    • 1998
  • Many bulk carrier losses have been reported of late, and one of the possible causes of such casualties is thought to be the structural failure of aging hulls in rough weather. Clearly, in such cases, vessels that start out belong adequate somehow become marginal later in life. Fatigue and corrosion related potential problems may be the most important factors affecting such age related vessel damage. With respect to fatigue, extensive studies have been done worldwide both experimentally and theoretically, and the results have been applied to some extent. However, in the case of corrosion effects, additional research is still needed to better understand, clarify and address the various strength uncertainties and their effects on structural behavior. This paper develops a probabilistic corrosion rate estimation model for the longitudinal strength members of bulk carriers. The model is based on available statistical data for corrosion of existing bulk carriers. The corrosion data collected are documented for future use.

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Analysis and probabilistic modeling of wind characteristics of an arch bridge using structural health monitoring data during typhoons

  • Ye, X.W.;Xi, P.S.;Su, Y.H.;Chen, B.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제63권6호
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    • pp.809-824
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    • 2017
  • The accurate evaluation of wind characteristics and wind-induced structural responses during a typhoon is of significant importance for bridge design and safety assessment. This paper presents an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm-based angular-linear approach for probabilistic modeling of field-measured wind characteristics. The proposed method has been applied to model the wind speed and direction data during typhoons recorded by the structural health monitoring (SHM) system instrumented on the arch Jiubao Bridge located in Hangzhou, China. In the summer of 2015, three typhoons, i.e., Typhoon Chan-hom, Typhoon Soudelor and Typhoon Goni, made landfall in the east of China and then struck the Jiubao Bridge. By analyzing the wind monitoring data such as the wind speed and direction measured by three anemometers during typhoons, the wind characteristics during typhoons are derived, including the average wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density (PSD). An EM algorithm-based angular-linear modeling approach is proposed for modeling the joint distribution of the wind speed and direction. For the marginal distribution of the wind speed, the finite mixture of two-parameter Weibull distribution is employed, and the finite mixture of von Mises distribution is used to represent the wind direction. The parameters of each distribution model are estimated by use of the EM algorithm, and the optimal model is determined by the values of $R^2$ statistic and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The results indicate that the stochastic properties of the wind field around the bridge site during typhoons are effectively characterized by the proposed EM algorithm-based angular-linear modeling approach. The formulated joint distribution of the wind speed and direction can serve as a solid foundation for the purpose of accurately evaluating the typhoon-induced fatigue damage of long-span bridges.

사용후연료 저장용기 자유입상 모델의 지진응답해석 (Seismic Response Analysis of Freestanding Model of a Spent Fuel Storage Cask)

  • 이재한;서기석;구경회;이홍영;최병일;정성환
    • 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지진공학회 2003년도 추계 학술발표회논문집
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    • pp.58-65
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    • 2003
  • The seismic response analysis of a freestanding spent fuel storage cask model are performed for an artificial time history acceleration generated by the basis on the US NRC RG1.60 response acceleration spectrum. This paper focuses on the structural stability by seismic loads to check the overturing possibility of storage cask and the slipping displacement on bed. Parametric analyses of a simplified cask model are performed to take into account the variations in seismic load magnitude and cask/bed interface friction. The analyses results show that the storage cask has a large marginal integrity in the response acceleration and slipping distance for both design seismic and beyond design seismic loads.

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Evaluation of ASCE 61-14 NSPs for the estimation of seismic demands in marginal wharves

  • Smith-Pardo, J. Paul.;Reyes, Juan C.;Sandoval, Juan D.;Hassan, Wael M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제69권1호
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2019
  • The Standard ASCE 61-14 proposes the Substitute Structure Method (SSM) as a Nonlinear Static Procedure (NSP) to estimate nonlinear displacement demands at the center of mass of piers or wharves under seismic actions. To account for bidirectional earthquake excitation according to the Standard, results from independent pushover analyses in each orthogonal direction should be combined using either a 100/30 directional approach or a procedure referred to as the Dynamic Magnification Factor, DMF. The main purpose of this paper is to present an evaluation of these NSPs in relation to four wharf model structures on soil conditions ranging from soft to medium dense clay. Results from nonlinear static analyses were compared against benchmark values of relevant Engineering Design Parameters, EDPs. The latter are defined as the geometric mean demands that are obtained from nonlinear dynamic analyses using a set of 30 two-component ground motion records. It was found that SSM provides close estimates of the benchmark displacement demands at the center of mass of the wharf structures. Furthermore, for the most critical pile connection at a landside corner of the wharf the 100/30 and DMF approaches produced displacement, curvature, and force demands that were reasonably comparable to corresponding benchmark values.