• Title/Summary/Keyword: Marginal likelihood

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Weighted Hω and New Paradox of κ (가중 합치도 Hω와 κ의 새로운 역설)

  • Kwon, Na-Young;Kim, Jin-Gon;Park, Yong-Gyu
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.1073-1084
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    • 2009
  • For ordinal categorical $R{\times}R$ tables, a weighted measure of association, $H_{\omega}$, was proposed and its maximum likelihood estimator and asymptotic variance were drived. We redefined the last paradox of ${\kappa}$ and proved its relation to marginal distributions. We also introduced the new paradox of ${\kappa}$ and summaried the general relationships between ${\kappa}$ and marginal distributions.

The economic value of water in Korean manufacturing industry

  • Ku, Se-Ju;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.447-451
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    • 2010
  • It is quite important for manufacturing firms to stably secure water, because industrial water is used for a variety of purposes as one of the important inputs in the production process. Despite the significance of industrial water use and the increase of industrial water demand, relatively little has studied regarding the industrial water use in Korea. This paper employs the marginal productivity approach in order to estimate the economic value of water in Korean manufacturing industry, and we use the information of 53,912 factories surveyed in 2003. The result of the likelihood ratio test shows that Trans-log is an appropriate model for estimating the data of this study. In Trans-log function model, the industry-wide output elasticity of water is 0.0104, and the marginal value is KRW 1,156 per ton. The estimated values differ across the sectors and these values range from the high value of about KRW 13,760 per ton in the transportation equipment sector to low values of KRW 428 per ton in the precision instrument sector. The research provides useful information to help policy-makers in developing and implementing more appropriate policies regarding the management and distribution of water resources by estimating the value of water resources by sector. In addition, Korean government enables the drafting of future water pricing scenarios based on the estimated value information.

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Bayesian Test of Quasi-Independence in a Sparse Two-Way Contingency Table

  • Kwak, Sang-Gyu;Kim, Dal-Ho
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.495-500
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    • 2012
  • We consider a Bayesian test of independence in a two-way contingency table that has some zero cells. To do this, we take a three-stage hierarchical Bayesian model under each hypothesis. For prior, we use Dirichlet density to model the marginal cell and each cell probabilities. Our method does not require complicated computation such as a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to draw samples from each posterior density of parameters. We draw samples using a Gibbs sampler with a grid method. For complicated posterior formulas, we apply the Monte-Carlo integration and the sampling important resampling algorithm. We compare the values of the Bayes factor with the results of a chi-square test and the likelihood ratio test.

An importance sampling for a function of a multivariate random variable

  • Jae-Yeol Park;Hee-Geon Kang;Sunggon Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.65-85
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    • 2024
  • The tail probability of a function of a multivariate random variable is not easy to estimate by the crude Monte Carlo simulation. When the occurrence of the function value over a threshold is rare, the accurate estimation of the corresponding probability requires a huge number of samples. When the explicit form of the cumulative distribution function of each component of the variable is known, the inverse transform likelihood ratio method is directly applicable scheme to estimate the tail probability efficiently. The method is a type of the importance sampling and its efficiency depends on the selection of the importance sampling distribution. When the cumulative distribution of the multivariate random variable is represented by a copula and its marginal distributions, we develop an iterative algorithm to find the optimal importance sampling distribution, and show the convergence of the algorithm. The performance of the proposed scheme is compared with the crude Monte Carlo simulation numerically.

A Bayes Rule for Determining the Number of Common Factors in Oblique Factor Model

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2000
  • Consider the oblique factor model X=Af+$\varepsilon$, with defining relation $\Sigma$$\Phi$Λ'+Ψ. This paper is concerned with suggesting an optimal Bayes criterion for determining the number of factors in the model, i.e. dimension of the vector f. The use of marginal likelihood as a method for calculating posterior probability of each model with given dimension is developed under a generalized conjugate prior. Then based on an appropriate loss function, a Bayes rule is developed by use of the posterior probabilities. It is shown that the approach is straightforward to specify distributionally and to imploement computationally, with output readily adopted for constructing required cirterion.

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A Comparison of Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood Estimations in a SUR Tobit Regression Model (SUR 토빗회귀모형에서 베이지안 추정과 최대가능도 추정의 비교)

  • Lee, Seung-Chun;Choi, Byongsu
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.991-1002
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    • 2014
  • Both Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods are efficient for the estimation of regression coefficients of various Tobit regression models (see. e.g. Chib, 1992; Greene, 1990; Lee and Choi, 2013); however, some researchers recognized that the maximum likelihood method tends to underestimate the disturbance variance, which has implications for the estimation of marginal effects and the asymptotic standard error of estimates. The underestimation of the maximum likelihood estimate in a seemingly unrelated Tobit regression model is examined. A Bayesian method based on an objective noninformative prior is shown to provide proper estimates of the disturbance variance as well as other regression parameters

Noise Removal Using Complex Wavelet and Bernoulli-Gaussian Model (복소수 웨이블릿과 베르누이-가우스 모델을 이용한 잡음 제거)

  • Eom Il-Kyu;Kim Yoo-Shin
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.43 no.5 s.311
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 2006
  • Orthogonal wavelet tansform which is generally used in image and signal processing applications has limited performance because of lack of shift invariance and low directional selectivity. To overcome these demerits complex wavelet transform has been proposed. In this paper, we present an efficient image denoising method using dual-tree complex wavelet transform and Bernoulli-Gauss prior model. In estimating hyper-parameters for Bernoulli-Gaussian model, we present two simple and non-iterative methods. We use hypothesis-testing technique in order to estimate the mixing parameter, Bernoulli random variable. Based on the estimated mixing parameter, variance for clean signal is obtained by using maximum generalized marginal likelihood (MGML) estimator. We simulate our denoising method using dual-tree complex wavelet and compare our algorithm to well blown denoising schemes. Experimental results show that the proposed method can generate good denoising results for high frequency image with low computational cost.

Joint Modeling of Death Times and Counts Considering a Marginal Frailty Model (공변량을 포함한 사망시간과 치료횟수의 모형화를 위한 주변환경효과모형의 적용)

  • Park, Hee-Chang;Park, Jin-Pyo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.311-322
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    • 1998
  • In this paper the problem of modeling count data where the observation period is determined by the survival time of the individual under study is considered. We assume marginal frailty model in the counts. We assume that the death times follow a Weibull distribution with a rate that depends on some covariates. For the counts, given a frailty, a Poisson process is assumed with the intensity depending on time and the covariates. A gamma model is assumed for the frailty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are obtained. The model is applied to data set of patients with breast cancer who received a bone marrow transplant. A model for the time to death and the number of supportive transfusions a patient received is constructed and consequences of the model are examined.

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Chi-Squared Test of Independence in Case that Two Marginal Distributions are Given Exactly (모집단 부분정보가 주어진 상황에서의 분할표 독립성 검정)

  • 이광진
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.89-103
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    • 2004
  • If the given information is exact, though it is the little, we had better use it than not use in analysis. In this article, the problem of independence test in a contingency table is considered when two marginal distributions of a population are given exactly. For that case, a likelihood-ratio chi-squared test statistic and its Pearsonian type chi-squared test statistic are derived. By Monte Carlo Simulations the traditional chi-square tests and the derived tests are compared. And the related some testing problems are synthetically explained on a geometrical viewpoint.

Design wind speed prediction suitable for different parent sample distributions

  • Zhao, Lin;Hu, Xiaonong;Ge, Yaojun
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.423-435
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    • 2021
  • Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.