• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.56 no.6
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• pp.523-531
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• 2019

The low birthrate and the need for national defense reform in Korea drive the Navy to develop efficient human resource planning such as a manpower forecasting model. However, to our knowledge, there is no study exploring the manpower forecasting model for naval ships in Korea. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting manpower demand in naval ships. Data for analyses were drawn from 19 ships in the Korean Navy. Results indicate that mission type is significantly related to the number of manpower. Specifically, battleships need the more manpower than the battle support ships. The results also showed that the weight of hull structure-engine and the weight of the weapons system significantly increased the number of manpower. However, the weight of the combat system was not significant. In addition, whereas the automation level of hull structure-engine and the automation level of weapon system was found to be negatively related to the number of manpower, the automation level of combat system was positively related to it. The model developed here contributes to an advanced human resource planning of the Korean Navy. Implications, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.130-145
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• 1991

The literature has recorded many models dealing with manpower forecasting and planning. The approaches used by the various authors are clearly disparate. This paper presents a taxonomy for manpower planning and forecasting methodologies and classifies the landmark developments in this field. The taxonomical schema is then applied to unify the models in consideration of the methods and the decision factors used for forecasting and/or planning. The taxonomy allows for the most complex model structure containing all the factors considered germane in the existing literature.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.155-166
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• 2023

Trend analysis and time series analysis were conducted to predict the demand of manpower under the smartization of shipping and port logistics with transportation survey data of Statistic Korea during the period from 2000 to 2020 and Statistical Yearbook data of Korean Seafarers from 2004 to 2021. A linear regression model was adopted since the validity of the model was evaluated as the highest in forecasting manpower demand in the shipping and port logistics industry. As a result of forecasting the demand of manpower in autonomous ship, remote ship management, smart shipping business, smart port, smart warehouse, and port logistics service from 2021 to 2035, the demand for smart shipping and port logistics personnel was predicted to increase to 8,953 in 2023, 20,688 in 2030, and 26,557 in 2035. This study aimed to increase the predictability of manpower demand through objective estimation analysis, which has been rarely conducted in the smart shipping and port logistics industry. Finally, the result of this research may help establish future strategies for human resource development for professionals in smart shipping and port logistics by utilizing the demand forecasting model described in this paper.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.85-93
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• 2006

This study is started from a situation of korean construction which has been undergoing diversity. And risk of construction project has been increased recently. The purpose of this study is to propose the model which is able to estimate the proper manpower by eliciting the variable which is offered in the pre-design and construction phase. The existing method of estimate has a problem with calculating exact costs. For this model, it was analyzed the existing manpower estimating model and used historical data of 38 apartment houses, constructed from 2000 to now. Based on these, the regression model of the construction manpower was built. And then the regression model was verified. The result of verification was relatively adequate in the statistics exept for some cases. This regression model will help make it possible for constructor to estimate the deduction of retirement more accurate than existing method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.20 no.44
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• pp.257-261
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• 1997

Patents often serve as leading indicators of technological change. This patenting activity reflected R&D (Research & Development) of new technology. The purpose of this study is to set up a forecasting model that anticipate the number of domestic patent applications and the number of patents granted relating to R&D inputs (R&D expenditure, R&D manpower) at the level of three industrial sectors in Korea : electrical-electronic, machinery, chemical etc. In this study, forecasting models were used trend extrapolation and a set of regressions. Both Theil's inequality coefficient and MAE(Mean Absolute Error) were utilized to test the precision of predicted value. The patent data and the R&D data were based on Indicators of Industrial Technology data throught 1980 to 1996. The major results obtained in this study are as follows (1) The regression model is more useful for forecasting the trends of the number of patent applications and patents granted than the trend extrapolation method. (2) The variance of Theil's inequality is smaller in patent applications than in patent granted.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.47-53
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• 2005

The efficiency of fabrication (fab) operation is one of the key factors in order for a semiconductor manufacturing company to stay competitive. Optimization of manpower and forecasting manpower needs in a modern fab is an essential part of the future strategic planing and a very important to the operational efficiency. As the semiconductor manufacturing technology has entered the 8-inch wafer era, the complexity of fab operation increases with the increase of wafer size. The wafer handling method has evolved from manual mode in 6-inch wafer fab to semi-automated or fully automated factory in 8-inch and 12-inch wafer fab. The distribution of manpower requirement in each specialty varied as the trend of fab operation goes for downsizing manpower with automation and outsourcing maintenance work. This paper is to study the specialty distribution of manpower from the requirement in a typical 6-inch, 8-inch to 12-inch wafer fab. The human resource planning in today’s fab operation shall consider many factors, which include the stability of technical talents. This empirical study mainly focuses on the human resource planning, the manpower distribution of specialty structure and the forecast model of internal demand/supply in current semiconductor manufacturing company. Considering the market fluctuation with the demand of varied products and the advance in process technology, the study is to design a headcount forecast model based on current manpower planning for direct labour (DL) and indirect labour (IDL) in Taiwan’s fab. The model can be used to forecast the future manpower requirement on each specialty for the strategic planning of human resource to serve the development of the industry.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.19
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• pp.1-21
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• 2009

Manpower demand forecasting in private security industry can be used for both policy and information function. At a time when police agencies have fewer resources to accomplish their goals, forming partnership with private security firms should be a viable means to choose. But without precise understanding of each other, their partnership could be superficial. At the same time, an important debate is coming out whether security industry will continue to expand in numbers of employees, or level-off in the near future. Such debates are especially important for young people considering careers in private security industry. Recently, ARIMA model has been widely used as a reliable instrument in the many field of industry for demand forecasting. An ARIMA model predicts a value in a response time series as a linear combination of its own past values, past errors, and current and past values of other time series. This study conducts a short-term forecast of manpower demand in private security industry using ARIMA model. After obtaining yearly data of private security officers from 1976 to 2008, this paper are forecasting future trends and proposing some policy orientations. The result shows that ARIMA(0, 2, 1) model is the most appropriate one and forecasts a minimum of 137,387 to maximum 190,124 private security officers will be needed in 2013. The conclusions discuss some implications and predictable changes in policing and coping strategies public police and private security can take.

• Korea Science and Art Forum
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.35-46
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• 2019

The purpose of this study was to develop a hybrid model forecasting the optimal number of employees for the hotel MICE and investigate indicators' reliability and validity empirically. The dominant approach of manpower planning has long been conducted based on heuristic experience in the field of Hotel and MICE. There is little research on the manpower planning and forecasting in the hotel and MICE studies. However, it is significantly important to ensure how many the optimal number of employees are calculated to meet the goals of the company as well as the expectation of their customers. A focus group interview was used to collect data through a series of surveys. A total of 289 samples were collected to test validity of finalized indicators for forecasting the optimal number of employees for the Hotel MICE. The study developed 15 quantitative indicators and 19 qualitative indicators to forecasting the optimal number of employees for the Hotel MICE, based on three types of groups such as 'service-oriented', 'stability-oriented', and 'profitability-oriented' hotel company The study revealed the econometrics formula for the practical application for this field.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.115-123
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• 2015

This study focused on the alternative to estimate the demand of employment in Kenya logistics. First of all, it investigated the importance and necessity of search about the present circumstance of the country's industry. Next, it reviewed respectively the concept and limitation of several previous models for employment, including Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA; ROA, Netherlands; IER (Institute for Employment Research), UK; and IAB, Germany. In regard to the demand forecasting of employers in logistics, it could anticipate more realistically the future demand by the time-lag approach. According to the findings, if value of output record 733,080 KSH million in 2015 and 970,640 in 2020, compared to 655,222 in 2013, demand on wage employment in logistics industry would be reached up to 95,860 in 2015 and 104,329 in 2020, compared to about 89,600 in 2012. To conclude, this study showed the more rational numbers about the demand forecasting of employment than the previous researches and displayed the systematic approach to estimate industry manpower in logistics.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.1D
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• pp.37-44
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• 2010

The present annexed parking lot standards for buildings in Parking Act are categorized in 9 groups with 13 parking standards in terms of recreation, culture and assembly, housing, factory, warehouse, and so on, in which same grouped facilities have same parking standards. These days diversity in building types and functions need more fractionated parking standards; however, most local governments focusing merely on applying strengthened parking standards in general without systematic rules of consistency. The current problem of parking standards being used is lack of regarding facility characteristics; expecially, a large sized high-tech manufacturing facility located in industrial site is still applied by same parking standards as normal manufacturing facility, even though most part of manufacturing process is automated and hence less manpower is employed. This paper presents a parking generation forecasting model for factory facilities in industrial site in terms of facility use and scale characteristics.