• Health Policy and Management
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.146-168
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• 1993

The study was conducted to project supply and demand of the nurses till year 2010 based on analysis of supply and demand of nurses up to year 1991. Results of the study will provide invaluable information for nurses manpower planning as well as overall health manpower planning for the 21th century. It is projected that nurses will be oversupplied based on the current prductivity which is undesirable situation if the quality of care is considered, and undersupplied based on the the medical law as well as optimal productivity. Thus, it is desirable to increase active supply of nurses. One of the ways of increasing active supply would be increasing the size of training and education. But, considering low employment rate of nurses which is about 59% better way of solving problems related to nurses shortage would be improvement in nurses' employment rate. According to simulation study done as part of this study, if nurses' employment rate goes up to 80%, there is no need for increasing the size of training to meet the demand at the level of medical law.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.33-52
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• 1999

The purpose of this study is to project the supply and demand for nurses till the year 2012 and to make recommendations for establishment of proper policies regarding them. To predict the supply of nurses. a baseline projection and demographic methods were employed. The derivative demand was used to forecast the demand of nurses. The results of this study provide us with valuable information on nursing manpower planning for the 21th century. Specifically. results indicate that there will be an oversupply of nurses in the near future based on the current productivity. Based on the medical law. there will be an undersupply of nurses till 2002 but an oversupply after that. Thus. the active supply of nurses must be decreased. One way to achieve this would be decreasing the size of training and education. Thus. we recommend that the number of entrances to 4 year programs will be reduced 20% in 2004. and a reduction of 20% by 2005 in 3 year programs. The results of this study suggest the following: First. a manpower bank for nurses who are trying to reenter the market must be established. Second, improvement of education and retraining is needed for the quality control of nurses. Further studies should take into consideration the above factors.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.136-152
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• 1991

The study was conducted to project supply and demand of the physicians from year 1991 to year 2010 based on the analysis of supply and demand of the physicians up to year 1989. Results of the study will provide information for the physicians manpower planning of the 7th 5-year Economic Social Development Planning(1992-1996) and contribute to the overall health manpower planning for the 21the century. It is projected that physician will be oversupplied from the very near future based on the current productivity or underestimated based on the optimal productivity. Thus, it is desirable not to change size of training and education during the 7the 5-year planning period and re-examine the status of the physician manpower at the end of the 7th 5-year period taking into consideration medical services utilization pattern, patients' satisfaction, and physicians' productivity.

• Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.149-162
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• 2013

Objectives : This study was conducted to estimate the future demand and supply of physicians for korean medicine from 2016 year to 2026 year in order to make an adequate manpower policy in a way of keeping a balance between demand and supply. Methods : Baseline projection method and trend analysis(a polynomial log power equation model) were used in the estimation of future supply and demand respectively. We used data about the amount of oriental doctors from Ministry of Health and Welfare Statistics Yearbook and the treatment days from HIRA Statistics Yearbook. Results : It was projected that the total number of physician of Korean medicine will be 25,178 registered and 18,967 available in clinical setting. According to polynomial equation model which explained the trend of demand and had the highest score of $R^2$ among the equation models, 3,800~5,600 physician in Korean medicine will be oversupplied in 2016 year, 9,000~10,700 physicians in 2021 year and 15,700~17,000 persons in 2026 year depends on annual working days which is 265days, 255days or 239days. Log equation model also showed that overall excess supply of physician manpower in Korean medicine. Conclusions : Alternative manpower policies for Korean medicine doctors should be implemented in a way of both dwindling supplies and growing demand in Korean medical service in terms of Korean medical services utilization and improving physician's productivity.

• The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.55-64
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• 2003

The purposes of this study which was conducted by applying three projection formulae to the data from admission quota for paramedic of the Ministry of Education & Human Resources Development the number of ambulances the number of emergency medical centers of the Ministry of Health & Welfare and rate of successful candidates of annual report of the National Health Personnel Licensing Examination Board were to find out demand and supply of paramedic from 2002 to 2045 and to expand scope of practice of paramedic in Korea. The conclusions from this study were summarized as follows; (1) The simple formulae derived from the projection formula of the Economic Planning Board were applied under the present Emergency Medical Services Act including qualifying over 3-years experienced EMT-Basic for paramedic examinee, stationing paramedic or EMT-Basic or physician or nurse per ambulance, stationing paramedic or EMT-Basic per emergency medical center and under the amended Emergency Medical Services Act including qualifying only paramedic graduate for paramedic examinee, stationing 4.5 paramedics per ambulance, stationing 10 to 2 paramedics per emergency medical center. (2) It was estimated that on the American basis of 5.6 EMTs per 10,000 in 1996, the number of paramedics under the present act will reach the basis before 2020, the number of paramedics under the amended act will reach the basis about 2040. (3) It was estimated that on the basis of 22,000 paramedics demanded from the number of ambulances, the number of emergency medical centers in 2001, the number of paramedics under the present act will reach the basis before 2015, the number of paramedics under the amended act will reach the basis about 2030. (4) There was relationship between requirements for emergency medical centers scope of practice of paramedic in the act and demand-supply of paramedic, this necessitates surveys, studies, amendment of the act, legalization for expanded scope of practice of paramedic including EMD, instructor, teacher of safety. (5) This study which includes only expanded scope of practice of paramedic and projection for paramedic in the act needs complementary studies such as decision-making process in health manpower policy and so on.

• Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.585-595
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• 2003

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to suggest the projected manpower of hospice and palliative care nurses & APNs(advanced practice nurses)needed in the future. Method: Need model, ratio model and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of hospice and palliative care nurses & APNs. Result: 1. The number of Korean hospice facilities was 64 in 2002. The number of hospice nurses in 2001 was 194 and that of beds was 407. 2. The number of hospice target patients was estimated at a minimum of 16,415 to a maximum of 25,254 in 2002, 12,366 to 26,389 in 2005, and 14,057 to 30,000 in 2020. 3. The number of hospice and palliative nurses needed to meet the demands in 2002, 2005 and 2020 was estimated at a minimum of 1,136 to maximum of 1,748, 1,187 to 1,826, and 1,349 to 2,076, respectively. 4. The number of hospice & palliative care APNs needed to meet the demands in 2002, 2005 and 2020 was estimated at 232, 242, and 274, respectively. Conclusion: The legalization of hospice is expected to increase demands for hospice nurses and advanced practice hospice and palliative care nurses in the future.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.21 no.1 s.23
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• pp.61-69
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• 1988

In this study, the number of physicians presently living in Korea was thoroughly estimated by several means and, on this basis, their productivity and level of supply were estimated. The results were as follows First, the number of physicians who did not notify the Korea Medical Association in May 1987 were 10,110, including 4,093 emigrant physicians(40.5%) ,861 military medical officers,745 public health doctors, and 107 deceased physicians. A total of 1,330 physicians could not be identified by any effort. Second, among the 34,897 registered physicians as of May 1987, 29,933(85.8%) were residing in Korea, 4,115 physicians(11.8%) had emigrated to other countries, and 849 physicians(2.4%) were deceased. Practicing physicians difined as those in Korea who were not retired, serving in the military, or completing residencies or internships, comprised 78.6%(27,414 physicians) of the total number of registered physicians. Third, it is estimated that in the year 2000 the number of registered physicians, physicians residing in Korea, and practicing physician will be 75,040, 64,038, and 57,655, respectively and these are increases of 115.0%, 113.9%, and 110.3%, respectively, compared to 1987. Fourth, the population physician ratio will be 759 to one physician in the year 2000. Fifth, the productivity of physicians, as calculated by relative values defining the productivity of 35 to 44 year-old male physicians as 10, will increase 110.7% in the year 2000 compare to that of 1987, and this increment is almost the same level as that of physician supply. From the results of the present analysis of physician manpower and supply projection, it can be recognized that the development of a regular notification system is necessary in order to identify precisely the number of physicians. Also a policy of physician supply is essential in order to adjust in advance the number of physicians, otherwise there will be surplus to the medical demand.

• Asian Oncology Nursing
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.49-61
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• 2004

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to suggest the projected manpower of oncology nurses & Advanced oncology certified nurses needed in the future. Method: Need models, ratio models and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of oncology nurses & Advanced oncology certified nurses. Resul: 1. The demand for the oncology nurses was estimated 6,043 in the year 2003, 6,548 in the year 2005, and 4,556 in the year 2010. 2. The demand range of the advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of hospitalized patients were estimated 358-538 in the year 2003, 388-583 in the year 2005, and 448-672 in the year 2010. 3. The demand range of the middle and long term advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of sickbed were estimated 507-787 in the year 2005, 523-810 in the year 2010, and 540-837 in the year 2020. 4. The demand range of the advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of organizations were estimated 374 in the year 2003, 399 in the year 2005, 410 in the year 2010. 5. The total demand range, concerning the numbers of hospitalized patients, hospital bed, and organizations are estimated 358-538 in the year 2003, 388-787 in the year 2005, 428-840 in the year 2010, and 540-837 in the year 2020. 6. In the demand of developed country's level oncology nurses are OCN's level 1,495, AOCN's level 102 in the year 2003, OCN's level 1,613, AOCN's level 111 in the year 2005, OCN's level 1,879, AOCN's level 128 in the year 2010 in case of the United States, and in case of Canada, 765 in the year 2003, 826 in the year 2005, and 956 in the year 2010.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.235-256
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• 2024

Background: The adequate provision of medical care relies on the availability of a suitable number of healthcare professionals. To ensure stability in healthcare delivery, it is crucial for a country to accurately estimate and address the supply of doctors. This study aims to contribute to the formulation of effective policies for securing and distributing doctor manpower, with a focus on medically underserved areas at both the national and local government levels. Methods: Employing the system dynamics methodology, this research utilizes stock and flow diagrams, including level and rate diagrams, to quantitatively analyze the cumulative structure of the doctor supply and demand system. Results: The analysis reveals a substantial shortage of clinical doctors in Gyeongsangnam-do, amounting to 15,477 as of 2021. Projections indicate a need for an additional 7,570 doctors by the year 2050 to maintain the current healthcare service level. Examination of medical treatment rights and distribution across cities and counties indicates an insufficiency in doctor supply relative to demand in the majority of regions. Alternative scenarios, such as increasing medical school enrollments and adjusting retirement ages, were explored, yet none provided a sufficient resolution to the shortage. Conclusion: The findings underscore an impending exacerbation of the doctor shortage in Gyeongsangnam-do if the existing system is perpetuated. Addressing this issue necessitates not only augmenting the number of medical school students and adapting retirement age policies but also implementing diverse strategies employed successfully in other countries. This study serves as a foundational step in informing evidence-based policies aimed at securing an ample and appropriately distributed doctor workforce for sustainable healthcare delivery.

• Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.511-524
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to provide policy recommendations for manpower planning by forecasting the supply and demand of Medical Technologists. Supply was estimated using an in-and-out movement method with a demographic method based on a baseline projection model. Demand was projected according to a demand-based method using the number of clinico-pathologic examinations taken for Medical Technologists. Over- or undersupply of Medical Technologists will depend on the productivity scenario and assumptions and ultimately on governmental policy direction. In other words, whether the production of Medical Technologists is higher or lower than the current level depends on the government policy to consider insurance finances. In this study, we assessed 'productivity scenario 3' based on the productivity as of 2012, when the government's policy direction was not considered. Based on the demand scenario using the ARIMA model, the supply of Medical Technologists is expected to be excessive. This oversupply accounts for less than 10% of the total and therefore should not be a big problem. However, given that the employment rate of Medical Technologists is 60%, it is necessary to consider policies to utilize the unemployed. These measures should expand the employment opportunities for the unemployed. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the functions of laboratories in the public health center, to increase the quota of Medical Technologists, to assure their status, to establish a permanent inspection system for outpatient patients, and to expand the export of Medical Technologists overseas.