• The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.19-33
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• 2017

In this paper, we suggest proper policy directions through an analysis onthe impact of changes in self-employment on the national economy. In other words, we intend to identify the current status of self-employment jobs and present policy directions for supporting self-employed workers. In order to grasp the dynamic relationship of variables, we used a VAR model to measure the impact of self-employment job fluctuations and macroeconomic variables on each other. The analysis results demonstrate that an exogenous shock to the ratio of self-employed workers does not show a significant impact on the nominal growth ratio. However, when the analysis was done separately on an exogenous shock to the ratio of self-employed workers with employees and without employees, an increase in the ratio of self-employed workers with employees showed a positive impact on nominal growth. On the other hand, an increase in the ratio of self-employed workers without employees showeda negative impact on nominal growth. In future studies, it will be necessary to do additional analysis on quarterly data to estimate the short-term impact of macroeconomic variables on changes in the ratio of self-employed workers.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.55-62
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• 2019

This study analyzed the relationship between housing price, purchase price, Gini coefficient, interest rate, and the employment, considering that the change in housing price was an important factor influencing macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The panel VAR model was constructed considering the panel data, and the Granger causality, Impulse response and Variance dispersion analysis were performed. As a result, when compared to before and after the global financial crisis, it was shown that the rent price had an effect on income inequality, but in the following period, both the rent price and the selling price affected the income inequality. And that it has a large impact on inequality. In addition, the causality between income inequality and employment rate, interest rate, and tax rate was confirmed. Therefore, it is expected that it will be a desirable policy to mitigate income inequality considering the influence of policy variables for economic activation including government real estate policy.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.11
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• pp.445-456
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to identify the importance of variables affecting women's golf wear sales with macroeconomic variables and consumer selling prices that affect consumers' purchasing behavior, and to propose a price strategy to increase sales of golf wear. Data of domestic women's golf wear brands were analyzed using decision tree algorithms and ensemble. Consumer selling price is the most significant factors in terms of sales volume for T-shirt, pants and knit, while categories were found to be the most important factors in addition to consumer sales prices for skirt and one piece dress. These findings suggest that items have different economic variables that affect consumers' purchasing behavior, suggesting that sales and profits can be maximized through appropriate price strategies.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.67-81
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• 2016

This paper examines the influence of Brexit on container volume of Korea, especially of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate and industrial production of EU and United Kingdom. To do this, we use monthly time series data during 2000-2016, and introduce the analysis method of cointegration test and VECM, and analyze the influence of industrial production and exchange rate of EU and U.K. on container volume of Korea. The results are as follows. First, the container volume of Korea is influenced by the exchange rate and industrial production of EU in the long run. But the exchange and industrial production of U.K. influenced on only export container volume of Korea, and the influence of U.K. macroeconomic variables on container volume of Korea was not large in the long lun. Second, In the shot run, the influence of exchange rate on container volume of Korea, especially on export container volume was significant in EU and U.K. To sum up, the influence of EU macroeconomic variables on container volume of Korea is larger than that of U.K., and the influence of exchange rate variable is more significant than that of industrial production variable.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2009.11a
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• pp.387-397
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• 2009

In these OECD countries, left-wingers Government focus on unemployment, but right-wingers Government cares more about inflation. It is that inflation and unemployment don't have differential effects across rich and poor and the happiness levels of these two groups are unaffected by identity of the Government in power. The poor people choose to left-wingers Government, but rich people prefer to right-wingers Government. I estimate whether above opinion is correct or not. Especially I check how my results change when I control for aggregate economy activity and government consumption, two variables that could be correlated with inflation and unemployment and affect each Government's happiness differentially. This paper, and I believe much of the happiness literature, can be understood as an application of experienced utility, a conception that emphasis the pleasures derived from private consumption and sentiment of it. In Granger Causality test, private consumption sentiment index related with industrial production interactively in Korea. The business cycles affect on private consumption sentiment index.

• Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.99-113
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• 2021

This study to verify the influence of the macroeconomic factors to sportainment industry and also to find the value of use. For this, 'Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)', 'West Texas intermediate (WTI)', and 'Gold Price (GP)' were selected from macroeconomic factors, and the 'Stock Price' of NIKE and Adidas for sportainment industry factor. The transaction data for 20 years (5,285 trade days) were analyzed through a two-step extraction process. Durbin-Watson regression analysis was performed to prove the influence and predict. From these analyses, the first, the Macroeconomics factors were found to have a significant effect on the sportainment industry. The second, each different levels of regression equations were found by the time setting, the environmental characteristics of each time period, and mutual relation between factors. Finally, it was found that the regression equation between specific period can be used for the future prediction in sportainment industry.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.39-50
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine how Korea's macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, CPI, Export, Import, Unemployment rate and USD/KRW exchange rate, are affected by the oil price shocks. Design/methodology/approach - This study used monthly and quarterly time-series data of each variable for the period 1983 to 2022, consisting of two sub-periods, to employ Granger causality test and GARCH method in order to identify the role of the oil price movement in macroeconomic factors in Korea. Findings - Korea's currency rate to the US dollar is negatively correlated with the price change of crude oil while the GDP change is positively correlated with the price change of crude oil with strong relationship between Export and Import in particular. The exchange rate and GDP growth are believed to be not correlated with the oil price change for the pre-GFC period. According to the Granger causality test, the price change in crude oil has a causal impact on CPI, Export and Import while other factors are relatively slightly affected. Transmission effect from the oil price to Export is found and there also exists volatility spillover from oil price to economic variables under examination. Comparing two sub-periods, CPI and Export volatility responds negatively to shocks in the oil price for the pre-GFC period while volatility of CPI and Unemployment reacts positively to the oil price shocks for the post-GFC period. Research implications or Originality - The findings of this study could be helpful for both domestic and international investors to build their portfolio for the risk management since rising WTI price can be interpreted as a result of global economic growth and ensuing increase in the worldwide demand of the crude oil. Consequently, the national output is expected to increase and the currency is also expected to be strong in the long run.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.441-448
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• 2022

The aim of this study was to examine determinants of secondhand Bulk carrier and Oil tanker prices. This study compiled S& P transaction data taken from the Clarksons Research during J anuary 2018 to April 2022 to see how independent variables influenced secondhand ship prices. In the secondhand ship pricing model of entire segments, size, age, and LIBOR showed significant effects on prices. A vessel built in J apan and Korea was traded at a higher price than a vessel built in other countries. In the bulk segment, size, age, Clarksea index, LIBOR, and inflation were meaningful variables. In the Tanker segment, unlike Bulk carrier, only size and age were useful variables. This study performed regression analyses for various sizes of Bulk carriers and Oil tankers. It verified that impacts of variables other than ship size and age were significantly associated with ship type and size while macroeconomic variables had no influence except for bulk carriers. By applying diverse variables affecting secondhand ship price estimation according to various sizes of Bulk carriers and Oil tankers, this study will expand the scope of practical application for investors. It also reaffirms prior research findings that the secondhand ship market is primarily market-driven.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.119-133
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• 2001

It is important to find the equilibrium level of real interest rate for it affects real and financial sector of economy. However, it is difficult to find the equilibrium level because like the most macroeconomic model the real interest model has parameter instability problem caused by structural change and it is supported by various theories and definitions. Hence, in order to cover these problems structural change detection model of real interest rate is developed to combine the real interest rate equilibrium model and the procedure to detect structural change points. 3 equations are established to find various effects of other interest-related macroeconomic variables and from each equation, structural changes are found. Those structural change points are consistent with common expectation. Oil Crisis (December, 1987), the starting point of Economic Stabilization Policy (January, 1982), the starting point of capital liberalization (January, 1988), the starting and finishing points of Interest deregulation (January, 1992 and December, 1994), Foreign Exchange Crisis (December, 1977) are detected as important points. From the equation of fisher and real effects, real interest rate level is estimated as 4.09% (October, 1988) and dependent on the underlying model, it is estimated as 0%∼13.56% (October, 1988), so it varies so much. It is expected that this result is connected to the large scale simultaneous equations to detect the parameter instability in real time, so induces the flexible economic policies.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.1093-1102
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• 2012

In this paper, we predicted the interest spread using the VAR (vector autoregressive) model. Variables used in the VAR model were selected among 56 domestic and foreign macroeconomic time series through crosscorrelation and Granger causality test. The performance of the VAR model was compared with the univariate time series model, AR (autoregressive) model, in view of MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) and RMSE (root mean square error) of forecasts for the last twelve months.