• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.77-88
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• 2021

The stock markets in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries are the leading emerging markets globally. Therefore, it is pertinent to ascertain the critical drivers of stock market development in these economies. The currrent study empirically investigates to identify the linkages between stock market development, key macro-economic factors and institutional factors in the BRICS economies. The study covers the time period from 2000 to 2017. The dependent variable is the country's stock market development and the independent variables consist of six macroeconomic variables and five institutional variables. The study employs a panel cointegration test, Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach and a heterogeneous panel non-causality test.The findings of the study indicate co-integration among the selected variables across the BRICS stock markets. Long-run estimations reveal that five macroeconomic variables and four variables related to institutional quality are positive and statistically significant. Further, short-run causalities between stock market capitalization and selected variables are detected through the test of non-causality in a heterogeneous panel setting. The findings suggest that policymakers in the BRICS countries should enhance robust macroeconomic conditions to support their financial markets and should strengthen the institutional quality drivers to stimulate the pace of stock market development in their countries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.741-750
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• 2021

The budget deficit is closely related to expansionary fiscal policy as a fiscal instrument to encourage economic growth. This study aims to apply optimal control theory in the Keynesian macroeconomic model for the economy, so that optimal growth can be found. Macroeconomic variables include GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, and budget deficit as control variables. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series, the time period 1990 to 2018. Performing optimal control will result in optimal fiscal policy. The optimal determination is done through simulation, for the period 2019-2023. The discrete optimal control problem is to minimize the objective function in the form of a quadratic function against the deviation of the state variable and control variable from the target value and the optimal value. Meanwhile, the constraint is Keynes' macroeconomic model. The results showed that the optimal value of macroeconomic variables has a deviation from the target values consisting of: consumption, investment, exports, imports, GDP, and budget deficit. The largest deviation from the average during the simulation occurs in GDP, followed by investment, exports, and the budget deficit. Meanwhile, the lowest average deviation is found in imports.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.7-17
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• 2018

This paper examines short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Korea Stock Exchange. The data is restricted to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to October 2016 (370 observations) retrieved from the Economic Statistics System database sponsored by the Bank of Korea. The study employs unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction estimates, impulse response test, and structural break test. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate at least three cointegrating equations exist at the 0.05 level in the model, confirming that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Korea. The results of vector error correction model (VECM) estimates indicate that money supply and short-term interest rate are not related to stock prices in the short-run. However, exchange rate is positively related to stock prices while the industrial production index and inflation are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run. Furthermore, the VECM estimates indicate that the external shock, such as regional and global financial crisis shocks, neither affects changes in the endogenous variables nor causes instability in the cointegrating vector. This study finds that the endogenous variables are determined by their own dynamics in the model.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.128-136
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 부동산 시장뿐만 아니라 우리 생활에 많은 비중을 차지하는 주택 가격에 영향을 미치는 거시경제변수에 대해 살펴보았다. 주택 전세가격에 영향을 미칠 것으로 파악되는 거시경제변수로는 가계대출금리, 가계예금총액, 취업자 수로 분석모형을 설정하였으며, 각 변수에 대한 시계열 자료를 활용하여 다중회귀분석을 실시하였다. 분석한 결과에 따르면, 주택 전세가격은 네 가지 거시경제변수 모두에 영향을 받으며 각각의 변수가 높아질수록 전세가격 또한 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과를 통해 주택 전세가격 안정화를 위한 해결책을 모색하고, 효율적이고 지속 가능한 주택시장 정책을 수립할 수 있을 것이다.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.17-29
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• 2021

Purpose: The aim of this study is to explore the dynamic linkage between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty of Bangladesh. Research design, data, and methodology: This study uses monthly data covering the time period from January 2005 to December 2018. A comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IP), consumer price index (CPI), broad money supply (M2), 91-day treasury bill rate (TB), treasury bond yield (GB), exchange rate (EX), inflow of foreign remittance (RT) and stock market index of DSEX are used for analysis. Symmetric and asymmetric univariate GARCH family of models and multivariate VAR model, along with block exogeneity and impulse response functions, are implemented on conditional volatility series to discover the possible interactions and causal relations between macroeconomic forces and stock return. Results: The analysis of the study exhibits time-varying volatility and volatility persistence in all the variables of interest. Moreover, the asymmetric effect is found significant in the stock return and most of the growth series of macroeconomic fundamentals. Results from the multivariate VAR model indicate that only short-term interest rate significantly influence the stock market volatility, while conditional stock return volatility is significant in explaining the volatility of industrial production, inflation, and treasury bill rate. Conclusion: The findings suggest an increasing interdependence between the money market and equity market as well as the macroeconomic fundamentals of Bangladesh.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권7호
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• pp.27-39
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• 2022

The exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variable that influences internal and external balances. Nepal follows a dual exchange rate such that the Nepali rupee (NPR) is pegged with the Indian rupee (INR) but floats with the United States dollar (USD) and all other currencies. There have been very few studies on the exchange rate of Nepal, of which the majority focus on the bivariate relationship between exchange rate and another variable. However, this paper analyses the multivariate relationship between the USD-NPR exchange rate and major macroeconomic variables. Determinants of Nepal's exchange rate have been derived with multiple regression using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach. Since the explanatory variables could not significantly capture the movement of the dependent variable, a long-run relationship between Nepal and India's exchange rate has been analyzed using Engle-Granger cointegration to establish a relationship as suggested by a graphical representation. This explains that Nepal's exchange rate long run is determined by India's exchange rate than its own fundamentals. In addition, the macro-linkages of Nepal's macroeconomic variables have been analyzed using Standard Vector Autoregressive models followed by impulse response analysis which is useful for policy decisions. Some policy implications indicating the sustainability of Nepal's pegged regime have been drawn based on the empirical analysis.

• 한국조리학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.212-223
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• 2016

본 연구의 목적은 거시경제변수의 수익률 및 변동성이 호텔 레저 주가지수 수익률 및 변동성에 대해 정보이전효과가 존재하는 지에 대해 알아보는 것이다. 실증분석을 위해 2000년 1월 4일부터 2015년 12월 31일까지 자료가 사용되었다. 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 시간가변 AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) 모형을 이용하여 분석한 결과, 거시경제변수으로부터 호텔 레저 주가지수로 수익률 및 변동성의 이전효과는 통계적으로 존재하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 환율(KOSPI)과 호텔 레저 주가지수의 수익률 간에는 음(양)의 관계를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 원유(금리)와 호텔 레저 주가지수의 변동성 간에는 양(음)의 관계를 가지는 것으로 관측되었다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제11권7호
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• pp.5-13
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• 2013

Purpose - The study explores social well-being of the community of five selected countries of the South Asia: India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh. The study compares effectiveness of macroeconomic policies across the countries through interactive effects of the macroeconomic policy variables with the regional dummy variables. Research design, data, and methodology - Using the data set for the period of 1990-2008, this study employs panel data models, quantile regression methods, and the fixed effects method, which the constant is treated as group or country-specific. The model can also be known as the least-squares dummy variables estimator. Results - The results reveal significant chances of improvement in the well-being of the people while living in India and Pakistan as compared to the other countries of the region where India relatively stands with better chances of providing opportunities to improve the well-being of the people. Conclusions - This study recommends an increasing allocation of budget on education and health in order to enhance social well-being in the South Asian region. Inflation is the main cause of deteriorating well-being of the South Asian community by escalating the cost of living. Comprehensive study is recommended by employing the micro data models in the region.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.181-190
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• 2021

This paper empirically examines the asymmetric response of the Indonesian Islamic stock market to macroeconomic variables encompassing money supply, domestic output, exchange rate, and Federal Reserve rate. Our study employs the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) after the financial crisis in the Southeast Asian country using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2019. Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag (NARDL) is applied. Our study considers two models consisting of the model without the Federal Reserve rate and the model with it. Our findings confirm the long-run link between Jakarta Islamic Index and macroeconomic factors being studied. Furthermore, the Jakarta Islamic Index asymmetrically responds to broad money supply and exchange rate, but not to domestic output and Federal Reserve rate. A reduction in the money supply has a worse effect on Islamic stock prices as compared to an increase in the money supply. The Jakarta Islamic Index responds differently to depreciation and appreciation. The transmission of the exchange rate to Islamic stock prices occurs only for appreciation. Our study finds an absence of transmission mechanism from the domestic output and the interest rate to Islamic stock prices. Our results imply that the easy money policy and stabilizing currency are key to supporting Indonesian Islamic stock prices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권12호
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• pp.95-105
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• 2021

A prerequisite of a sound financial system is effective channeling of financial resources to efficient users; hence maximizing economic and societal welfare. To that end, the prevalence of bad loans in banks in emerging economies is a major policy concern. In an attempt to add to the growing body of literature explaining the interrelationship between macroeconomic and firm-specific factors, and non-performing loans (NPL), this paper examines data from 24 scheduled commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2019. Macroeconomic factors as well as firm-specific factors related to profitability, capital strength, and efficiency are considered. Panel data regression analysis is performed to estimate pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects models. Following the necessary testing, it was found that the fixed effects model with robust standard error is appropriate. Results show that return on assets and inflation have a negative influence on NPL, but GDP growth has a favorable impact. The paper concludes by asserting that the evidence supports similar findings from studies both in Bangladesh and elsewhere and it is noted that a combination of these macroeconomic and firm-specific factors explains only a small portion of the total variation in NPL.