• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.647-654
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• 2021

This study examines the non-performing loans of rural banks and macroeconomic factors in Indonesia, including inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. Theoretically, the existence of erratic macroeconomic conditions can affect the level of non-performing credit risk in rural credit banks in Indonesia. The effect of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans has a different response for each economic sector. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of macroeconomic factors (inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates) and bank-specific factors (credit) on the Non-Performing Loans (NPL) of Rural Banks in Indonesia for the period from January 2015 to December 2018. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation to determine the effect of independent variables consisting of macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors. Based on the estimation results of the Vector Error Correction Model, three variables that have a positive and significant effect on long-term non-performing loans are credit, inflation, and interest rates. Meanwhile, in the short term, there are only two variables that have a positive and significant effect on non-performing loans, namely, credit and interest rates. Inflation and exchange rate variables have a negative and insignificant effect on bad credit in the short term.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.9-18
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relation between conservative loan loss accounting practice of banks, defined as accounting behavior that increases loan loss allowances against expected credit losses, and bank lending. Furthermore, we specify the macroeconomic conditions reflecting debtors' borrowing environments and analyze how these conditions affect the relation between conservative loan loss allowances and bank lending. Although existing literature reports that accounting conservatism has a direct effect on non-financial firms' investment behavior, there is little evidence about an effect of conservatism on banks' lending behavior. By exploiting data showing the links between individual Japanese firms and their individual lenders to control both loan demand and supply, we estimate OLS regressions to test the relationships among conservative loan loss allowance, bank lending, and macroeconomic conditions using a unique dataset containing bank-firm-year observations between 2001 and 2013. We find banks that have conservative loan loss allowances tend to provide fewer loans to firms with financing needs when macroeconomic conditions are good and these conservative banks are likely to provide more loans to firms when macroeconomic conditions are bad. Our findings suggest that reflecting expected credit loss into loan loss allowances can mitigate the procyclical behavior of banks.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.683-692
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• 2020

The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic factors to the Islamic stock market returns. The study focuses on the Islamic stock indices of emerging economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Turkey. The Macroeconomic factors are industrial production, consumer price index, exchange rate. EGARCH model is employed for investigation of volatility spillovers. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty has a significant spillover effect only on the returns of Turkish Islamic stock index. Similarly, the shocks in macroeconomic factors have little influence on the volatility of Islamic indices returns. The volatility of Indonesian and the Turkish Islamic stock indices returns is not influenced from the fluctuations in macroeconomic factors. However, there is significant volatility spillover only from industrial production to the returns of Malaysian Islamic index. The results suggest that the Islamic stock markets are less likely to influence from the global economic policies and macroeconomic factors. The stability of Islamic stocks provide opportunity for diversification of portfolios, particularly in stressed market conditions. The major price factors of Islamic markets could be firms' specific factors or investors' behaviors. The findings are helpful for policy makers and investors in formulating policies and portfolios.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.57-69
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• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic conditions on the relationship between CSR and firm value. Design/methodology/approach - Employing KEJI index as a proxy for a firm's CSR activities, we investigate whether investors discount the value of CSR activity during the economic recession when a firm's bankruptcy risk is high and thus its future sustainability is suspected. Findings - Our empirical result represents that the value of a firm with high CSR score is undervalued during recession, reflecting investors doubt the sustainability of a firm whose CSR score is high when overall economy is exposed to high downside risk. Research implications or Originality - It implies that investors may not regard the CSR activities as an indicator of corporate sustainability. Also, the result represents that stable macroeconomic condition can be one of the important factors to make the CSR activity increase a firm's value.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.63-94
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• 2013

This study aims to understand the long-run movement of volatility in Korean stock market by decomposing stock volatility into the long-lived and the short-lived components. In addition, I analyze how the low-frequency movement of stock market volatility is related to changes in macroeconomic conditions. The volatility decomposition is made based on the GARCH-MIDAS model, in which the long-lived volatility is constructed based on the combination of realized volatilities (RVs). The results show that the long-lived volatility contains information of up to 3~4 years of past RVs. In addition, the changes in the long-lived volatility can explain about two thirds of volatility changes in the Korean stock market from 1994 to 2009. Meanwhile, the low-frequency movement in the market volatility can be related to changes in macroeconomic conditions. The analysis shows that the stock market volatility appears to be countercyclical while showing a positive correlation with the inflation. In addition, the stock market volatility tends to rise as macroeconomic uncertainty increases. These results imply that macroeconomic policies aiming at economic stabilization could contribute to reduction in the stock market volatility.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.77-88
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• 2021

The stock markets in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries are the leading emerging markets globally. Therefore, it is pertinent to ascertain the critical drivers of stock market development in these economies. The currrent study empirically investigates to identify the linkages between stock market development, key macro-economic factors and institutional factors in the BRICS economies. The study covers the time period from 2000 to 2017. The dependent variable is the country's stock market development and the independent variables consist of six macroeconomic variables and five institutional variables. The study employs a panel cointegration test, Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach and a heterogeneous panel non-causality test.The findings of the study indicate co-integration among the selected variables across the BRICS stock markets. Long-run estimations reveal that five macroeconomic variables and four variables related to institutional quality are positive and statistically significant. Further, short-run causalities between stock market capitalization and selected variables are detected through the test of non-causality in a heterogeneous panel setting. The findings suggest that policymakers in the BRICS countries should enhance robust macroeconomic conditions to support their financial markets and should strengthen the institutional quality drivers to stimulate the pace of stock market development in their countries.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.49-66
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• 2014

This paper studies optimal consumption and investment behaviors of an individual when risky asset returns and her income are affected by the business cycle. The investor considers the incomplete information risk of unobservable macroeconomic conditions and updates her belief of expected risky asset returns through Bayesian learning. We find that the optimal investment strategy, certainty equivalent wealth, and portfolio hedging demand significantly depend on the belief about the macroeconomic conditions.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.1113-1119
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• 2021

This study aims to determine the impact of the news coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic on the composite stocks' movement (IHSG) in Indonesia. This study used secondary data of daily time series with an observation range of March 2020-June 2020. This study used three main variables, namely, COVID-19 news, the daily price of a composite stock market index (IHSG), and interest rate. This study clarifies pandemic news into two forms to facilitate quantitative analysis, namely, good news and bad news. Both pandemic news conditions, which have been clarified, are then processed into the index and reprocessed along with two other variables using vector autoregressive (VAR). The results showed that the good news have a dominant effect on developing the composite stock price index (IHSG) in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the good news dominates the composite stock price index (IHSG) movement in Indonesia, the bad news must also be anticipated. By implementing a series of macroeconomic policies that follow the conditions of the composite stock price index (IHSG) movements on the stock exchange floor, the bad news response can decrease the potential for a decline in investor confidence, so that the financial system's macroeconomic stability is maintained.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.1-48
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• 2013

Taking the cases of Korean garment factories in Binh Duong area, this study aims to explain the phases and causes of the wildcat strikes that have rapidly expanded recently in Vietnam. For the purpose, this study raises several questions as follows. Why the strikes sometimes increase and decrease other times? Why the factory workers prefer a wildcat strike even though it is politically risky, unproductive, and complicated? By the same token, why the foreign management cannot or will not preemptively preclude the wildcat strikes that are usually predictable and the workers are mostly able to accomplish their demands? While answering these questions, this study explores the economic, political, and socio-cultural conditions of the wildcat strikes respectively. Based on the fieldwork in around 30 Korean owned garment factories and the interview with around 100 Vietnamese factory workers in Binh Duong, this study confirms several findings on the phases and causes of the strikes in the area in specific and in Vietnam in general. First, the annual trends of the wildcat strikes reflect the macroeconomic conditions in which the consumer prices and the labor market in Vietnamese economy and business conditions in the world economy are pivotal. Second, however, the influence of macroeconomic conditions on both the management and the workers in the garment factories are differential, depending on the financial situations of the multinational corporations and the workers' capability of reproducing their household economies. Thirdly, the possibility of the wildcat strike in each factory is relatively independent on the financial conditions of a factory and rather associated with the stable political structure and active political processes within the factory that enable the management and the workers to efficiently communicate each other. Lastly, the necessity of establishing political stability in a factory arises from the distinctive social and cultural characteristics of the multinational corporation in which foreign managers and native workers inevitably live in separate and different socio-cultural worlds.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.91-97
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• 2001

A macroeconomic minimodel was simulated to analyze the effect of global exchange on the Korea\\`s economy. The simulation results illustrate some of the consequences of public policy and some insight into current world problems. All computer simulation runs made under various conditions suggest that the Korea\\`s system in the near future may be strongly influenced by the favorable availability of outside resources, while the national power and assets may be declined by indigenous environmental stock depletion. The borrowed capital allows the temporary money stock to increase and the national assets to grow faster and a little higher, as using up the environmental resources more quickly. Later, when the debt is paid off, the foreign exchange holdings may not go so high. For the environmentally sound and sustainable development, over 75% of total economic production should be invested to the natural resource management. Therefore, the economic structure of Korea should be transferred from the present industrial structure to social-economic structure based on ecological-recycling concept.