• Title/Summary/Keyword: Machine-being

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Predicting stock movements based on financial news with systematic group identification (시스템적인 군집 확인과 뉴스를 이용한 주가 예측)

  • Seong, NohYoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2019
  • Because stock price forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, research in stock price prediction has been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into using structured data and using unstructured data. With structured data such as historical stock price and financial statements, past studies usually used technical analysis approach and fundamental analysis. In the big data era, the amount of information has rapidly increased, and the artificial intelligence methodology that can find meaning by quantifying string information, which is an unstructured data that takes up a large amount of information, has developed rapidly. With these developments, many attempts with unstructured data are being made to predict stock prices through online news by applying text mining to stock price forecasts. The stock price prediction methodology adopted in many papers is to forecast stock prices with the news of the target companies to be forecasted. However, according to previous research, not only news of a target company affects its stock price, but news of companies that are related to the company can also affect the stock price. However, finding a highly relevant company is not easy because of the market-wide impact and random signs. Thus, existing studies have found highly relevant companies based primarily on pre-determined international industry classification standards. However, according to recent research, global industry classification standard has different homogeneity within the sectors, and it leads to a limitation that forecasting stock prices by taking them all together without considering only relevant companies can adversely affect predictive performance. To overcome the limitation, we first used random matrix theory with text mining for stock prediction. Wherever the dimension of data is large, the classical limit theorems are no longer suitable, because the statistical efficiency will be reduced. Therefore, a simple correlation analysis in the financial market does not mean the true correlation. To solve the issue, we adopt random matrix theory, which is mainly used in econophysics, to remove market-wide effects and random signals and find a true correlation between companies. With the true correlation, we perform cluster analysis to find relevant companies. Also, based on the clustering analysis, we used multiple kernel learning algorithm, which is an ensemble of support vector machine to incorporate the effects of the target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with features of financial news of the target firm and its relevant firms. The results of this study are as follows. The results of this paper are as follows. (1) Following the existing research flow, we confirmed that it is an effective way to forecast stock prices using news from relevant companies. (2) When looking for a relevant company, looking for it in the wrong way can lower AI prediction performance. (3) The proposed approach with random matrix theory shows better performance than previous studies if cluster analysis is performed based on the true correlation by removing market-wide effects and random signals. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, this study shows that random matrix theory, which is used mainly in economic physics, can be combined with artificial intelligence to produce good methodologies. This suggests that it is important not only to develop AI algorithms but also to adopt physics theory. This extends the existing research that presented the methodology by integrating artificial intelligence with complex system theory through transfer entropy. Second, this study stressed that finding the right companies in the stock market is an important issue. This suggests that it is not only important to study artificial intelligence algorithms, but how to theoretically adjust the input values. Third, we confirmed that firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) might have low relevance and suggested it is necessary to theoretically define the relevance rather than simply finding it in the GICS.

A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

A Study on Improvement of Collaborative Filtering Based on Implicit User Feedback Using RFM Multidimensional Analysis (RFM 다차원 분석 기법을 활용한 암시적 사용자 피드백 기반 협업 필터링 개선 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Seong;Kim, Jaeyoung;Kang, Byeongwook
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.139-161
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    • 2019
  • The utilization of the e-commerce market has become a common life style in today. It has become important part to know where and how to make reasonable purchases of good quality products for customers. This change in purchase psychology tends to make it difficult for customers to make purchasing decisions in vast amounts of information. In this case, the recommendation system has the effect of reducing the cost of information retrieval and improving the satisfaction by analyzing the purchasing behavior of the customer. Amazon and Netflix are considered to be the well-known examples of sales marketing using the recommendation system. In the case of Amazon, 60% of the recommendation is made by purchasing goods, and 35% of the sales increase was achieved. Netflix, on the other hand, found that 75% of movie recommendations were made using services. This personalization technique is considered to be one of the key strategies for one-to-one marketing that can be useful in online markets where salespeople do not exist. Recommendation techniques that are mainly used in recommendation systems today include collaborative filtering and content-based filtering. Furthermore, hybrid techniques and association rules that use these techniques in combination are also being used in various fields. Of these, collaborative filtering recommendation techniques are the most popular today. Collaborative filtering is a method of recommending products preferred by neighbors who have similar preferences or purchasing behavior, based on the assumption that users who have exhibited similar tendencies in purchasing or evaluating products in the past will have a similar tendency to other products. However, most of the existed systems are recommended only within the same category of products such as books and movies. This is because the recommendation system estimates the purchase satisfaction about new item which have never been bought yet using customer's purchase rating points of a similar commodity based on the transaction data. In addition, there is a problem about the reliability of purchase ratings used in the recommendation system. Reliability of customer purchase ratings is causing serious problems. In particular, 'Compensatory Review' refers to the intentional manipulation of a customer purchase rating by a company intervention. In fact, Amazon has been hard-pressed for these "compassionate reviews" since 2016 and has worked hard to reduce false information and increase credibility. The survey showed that the average rating for products with 'Compensated Review' was higher than those without 'Compensation Review'. And it turns out that 'Compensatory Review' is about 12 times less likely to give the lowest rating, and about 4 times less likely to leave a critical opinion. As such, customer purchase ratings are full of various noises. This problem is directly related to the performance of recommendation systems aimed at maximizing profits by attracting highly satisfied customers in most e-commerce transactions. In this study, we propose the possibility of using new indicators that can objectively substitute existing customer 's purchase ratings by using RFM multi-dimensional analysis technique to solve a series of problems. RFM multi-dimensional analysis technique is the most widely used analytical method in customer relationship management marketing(CRM), and is a data analysis method for selecting customers who are likely to purchase goods. As a result of verifying the actual purchase history data using the relevant index, the accuracy was as high as about 55%. This is a result of recommending a total of 4,386 different types of products that have never been bought before, thus the verification result means relatively high accuracy and utilization value. And this study suggests the possibility of general recommendation system that can be applied to various offline product data. If additional data is acquired in the future, the accuracy of the proposed recommendation system can be improved.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Deep Neural Network and Convolutional Neural Network (Deep Neural Network와 Convolutional Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 취약성 매핑)

  • Gong, Sung-Hyun;Baek, Won-Kyung;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_2
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    • pp.1723-1735
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    • 2022
  • Landslides are one of the most prevalent natural disasters, threating both humans and property. Also landslides can cause damage at the national level, so effective prediction and prevention are essential. Research to produce a landslide susceptibility map with high accuracy is steadily being conducted, and various models have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Pixel-based machine learning models such as frequency ratio models, logistic regression models, ensembles models, and Artificial Neural Networks have been mainly applied. Recent studies have shown that the kernel-based convolutional neural network (CNN) technique is effective and that the spatial characteristics of input data have a significant effect on the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to analyze landslide vulnerability using a pixel-based deep neural network model and a patch-based convolutional neural network model. The research area was set up in Gangwon-do, including Inje, Gangneung, and Pyeongchang, where landslides occurred frequently and damaged. Landslide-related factors include slope, curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic position index (TPI), timber diameter, timber age, lithology, land use, soil depth, soil parent material, lineament density, fault density, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) were used. Landslide-related factors were built into a spatial database through data preprocessing, and landslide susceptibility map was predicted using deep neural network (DNN) and CNN models. The model and landslide susceptibility map were verified through average precision (AP) and root mean square errors (RMSE), and as a result of the verification, the patch-based CNN model showed 3.4% improved performance compared to the pixel-based DNN model. The results of this study can be used to predict landslides and are expected to serve as a scientific basis for establishing land use policies and landslide management policies.

Modeling of Vegetation Phenology Using MODIS and ASOS Data (MODIS와 ASOS 자료를 이용한 식물계절 모델링)

  • Kim, Geunah;Youn, Youjeong;Kang, Jonggu;Choi, Soyeon;Park, Ganghyun;Chun, Junghwa;Jang, Keunchang;Won, Myoungsoo;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_1
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    • pp.627-646
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the seriousness of climate change-related problems caused by global warming is growing, and the average temperature is also rising. As a result, it is affecting the environment in which various temperature-sensitive creatures and creatures live, and changes in the ecosystem are also being detected. Seasons are one of the important factors influencing the types, distribution, and growth characteristics of creatures living in the area. Among the most popular and easily recognized plant seasonal phenomena among the indicators of the climate change impact evaluation, the blooming day of flower and the peak day of autumn leaves were modeled. The types of plants used in the modeling were forsythia and cherry trees, which can be seen as representative plants of spring, and maple and ginkgo, which can be seen as representative plants of autumn. Weather data used to perform modeling were temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation observed through the ASOS Observatory of the Korea Meteorological Administration. As satellite data, MODIS NDVI was used for modeling, and it has a correlation coefficient of about -0.2 for the flowering date and 0.3 for the autumn leaves peak date. As the model used, the model was established using multiple regression models, which are linear models, and Random Forest, which are nonlinear models. In addition, the predicted values estimated by each model were expressed as isopleth maps using spatial interpolation techniques to express the trend of plant seasonal changes from 2003 to 2020. It is believed that using NDVI with high spatio-temporal resolution in the future will increase the accuracy of plant phenology modeling.

A study of the antifungal properties and flexural strength of 3D printed denture base resin containing titanium dioxide nanoparticles (이산화티타늄 나노입자를 함유한 3D 프린팅 의치상 레진의 항진균성 및 굽힘 강도에 대한 연구)

  • Seok-Won Yoon;Young-Eun Cho
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.62 no.2
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2024
  • Purpose. With the advancement of digital technology, 3D printing is being utilized in the fabrication of denture base. Nevertheless, increasing microbial adhesion to the surface of denture base has been reported as the disadvantage of 3D-printed denture base. The purpose of this study is to investigate the antifungal properties and flexural strength of 3D-printed denture base resin according to the different contents of titanium dioxide nanoparticles. Materials and methods. Titanium dioxide nanoparticles were mixed with the 3D printing resin at the ratios of 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 wt%. Twenty specimens per each group were printed in the form of cylindrical shape (diameter: 20 mm, height: 3 mm) to evaluate antifungal properties. Ten specimens from each group underwent polishing using autogrinder, while the remaining ten specimens did not. Candida albicans in hyphae form was inoculated onto each specimen, optical density and colony-forming unit were analyzed. The surface of the specimen was observed using scanning electron microscopy. To evaluate the flexural strength, twenty specimens per each group were 3D printed in the form of rectangular prism shape (length: 64 mm, height: 10 mm, width: 3 mm) and three-point bending tests were conducted using universal testing machine according to ISO 20795-1. Results. Colony-forming unit of C.albicans and optical density of culture medium showed no difference between non-polished groups, but decreased in the polished groups at concentration of 1, 1.5, 2 wt% titanium dioxide nanoparticles. Flexural strength increased with titanium dioxide nanoparticle at concentration of 0.5, 1, 1.5 wt%, but decreased at 2 wt% compared to 1.5 wt%. Conclusion. When 1.5 wt% of titanium dioxide nanoparticles were added to the 3D-printed denture base resin with polishing, antifungal properties were increased.

The Empirical Exploration of the Conception on Nursing (간호개념에 대한 기초조사)

  • 백혜자
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.65-87
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    • 1981
  • The study is aimed at exploring concept held by clinical nurses of nursing. The data were collected from 225 nurses conviniently selected from the population of nurses working in Kang Won province. Findings include. 1) Nurse's Qualification. The respondents view that specialized knowledge is more important qualification of the nurse. Than warm personality. Specifically, 92.9% of the respondents indicated specialized knowledge as the most important qualification while only 43.1% indicated warm personality. 2) On Nursing Profession. The respondents view that nursing profession as health service oriented rather than independent profession specifically. This suggests that nursing profession is not consistentic present health care delivery system nor support nurses working independently. 3) On Clients of Nursing Care The respondents include patients, family and the community residents in the category of nursing care. Specifically, 92.0% of the respondents view that patient is the client, while only 67.1% of nursing student and 74.7% of herself. This indicates the lack of the nurse's recognition toward their clients. 4) On the Priority of Nursing care. Most of the respondents view the clients physical psychological respects as important component of nursing care but not the spiritual ones. Specially, 96.0% of the respondents indicated the physical respects, 93% psychological ones, while 64.1% indicated the spiritual ones. This means the lack of comprehensive conception on nursing aimension. 5) On Nursing Care. 91.6% of the respondents indicated that nursing care is the activity decreasing pain or helping to recover illness, while only 66.2% indicated earring out the physicians medical orders. 6) On Purpose of Nursing Care. 89.8% of the respondents indicated preventing illness and than 76.6% of them decreasing 1;ai of clients. On the other hand, maintaining health has the lowest selection at the degree of 13.8%. This means the lack of nurses' recognition for maintaining health as the most important point. 7) On Knowledge Needed in Nursing Care. Most of the respondents view that the knowledge faced with the spot of nursing care is needed. Specially, 81.3% of the respondents indicated simple curing method and 75.1%, 73.3%, 71.6% each indicated child nursing, maternal nursing and controlling for the communicable disease. On the other hand, knowledge w hick has been neglected in the specialized courses of nursing education, that is, thinking line among com-w unity members, overcoming style against between stress and personal relation in each home, and administration, management have a low selection at the depree of 48.9%,41.875 and 41.3%. 8) On Nursing Idea. The highest degree of selection is that they know themselves rightly, (The mean score measuring distribution was 4.205/5) In the lowest degree,3.016/5 is that devotion is the essential element of nursing, 2.860/5 the religious problems that human beings can not settle, such as a fatal ones, 2,810/5 the nursing profession is worth trying in one's life. This means that the peculiarly essential ideas on the professional sense of value. 9) On Nursing Services. The mean score measuring distribution for the nursing services showed that the inserting of machine air way is 2.132/5, the technique and knowledge for surviving heart-lung resuscitating is 2.892/s, and the preventing air pollution 3.021/5. Specially, 41.1% of the respondents indicated the lack of the replied ratio. 10) On Nurses' Qualifications. The respondents were selected five items as the most important qualifications. Specially, 17.4% of the respondents indicated specialized knowledge, 15.3% the nurses' health, 10.6% satisfaction for nursing profession, 9.8% the experience need, 9.2% comprehension and cooperation, while warm personality as nursing qualifications have a tendency of being lighted. 11) On the Priority of Nursing Care The respondents were selected three items as the most important component. Most of the respondents view the client's physical, spiritual: economic points as important components of nursing care. They showed each 36.8%, 27.6%, 13.8% while educational ones showed 1.8%. 12) On Purpose of Nursing Care. The respondents were selected four items as the most important purpose. Specially,29.3% of the respondents indicated curing illness for clients, 21.3% preventing illness for client 17.4% decreasing pain, 15.3% surviving. 13) On the Analysis of Important Nursing Care Ranging from 5 point to 25 point, the nurses' qualification are concentrated at the degree of 95.1%. Ranging from 3 point to 25, the priorities of nursing care are concentrated at the degree of 96.4%. Ranging from 4 point to 16, the purpose of nursing care is concentrated at the degree of 84.0%. 14) The Analysis, of General Characteristics and Facts of Nursing Concept. The correlation between the educational high level and nursing care showed significance. (P < 0.0262). The correction between the educational low level and purpose of nursing care showed significance. (P < 0.002) The correlation between nurses' working yeras and the degree of importance for the purpose of nursing care showed significance (P < 0.0155) Specially, the most affirmative answers were showed from two years to four ones. 15) On Nunes' qualification and its Degree of Importance The correlation between nurses' qualification and its degree of importance showed significance. (r = 0.2172, p< 0.001) 0.005) B. General characteristics of the subjects The mean age of the subject was 39 ; with 38.6% with in the age range of 20-29 ; 52.6% were male; 57.9% were Schizophrenia; 35.1% were graduated from high school or high school dropouts; 56.l% were not have any religion; 52.6% were unmarried; 47.4% were first admission; 91.2% were involuntary admission patients. C. Measurement of anxiety variables. 1. Measurement tools of affective anxiety in this study demonstrated high reliability (.854). 2. Measurement tools of somatic anxiety in this study demonstrated high reliability (.920). D. Relationship between the anxiety variables and the general characteristics. 1. Relationship between affective anxiety and general characteristics. 1) The level of female patients were higher than that of the male patient (t = 5.41, p < 0.05). 2) Frequencies of admission were related to affective anxiety, so in the first admission the anxiety level was the highest. (F = 5.50, p < 0.005). 2, Relationship between somatic anxiety and general characteristics. 1) The age range of 30-39 was found to have the highest level of the somatic anxiety. (F = 3.95, p < 0.005). 2) Frequencies of admission were related to the somatic anxiety, so .in first admission the anxiety level was the highest. (F = 9.12, p < 0.005) 0. Analysis of significant anxiety symptoms for nursing intervention. 1. Seven items such as dizziness, mental integration, sweating, restlessness, anxiousness, urinary frequency and insomnia, init. accounted for 96% of the variation within the first 24 hours after admission. 2. Seven items such as fear, paresthesias, restlessness, sweating insomnia, init., tremors and body aches and pains accounted for 84% of the variation on the 10th day after admission.

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