• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.262-273
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• 2003

기상청에서 현업 예보용으로 사용되는 중규모 기상 모델(MM5/KMA)의 해상풍 예측 결과와 이를 입력 자료로 제 3세대 파랑 모델(WAVEWATCH-III)을 적용하여 2002년 1년 동안의 한반도 주변해역의 해상풍과 파랑 특성을 분석하였다. 모델 결과의 검증을 위해서 해양기상 관측 부이의 관측 자료와 TOPEX/POSEIDON위성의 유의 파고 자료를 이용한 통계 비교 분석을 실시하였다. 관측 값과 모델 결과 사이에 약 60-80%의 상관성을 나타내었고, 연안에 가장 근접해 위치한 칠발도의 풍향을 제외하면, 연안 지역까지의 해상풍과 파고를 본 모델에서 잘 재현하고 있다고 분석되었다. 위의 검증 결과를 토대로 2002년 한반도를 포함한 동아시아 해역의 월평균 해상풍 및 유의파고, 파장, 파주기의 분포도를 제시하였다.

• 한국환경과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국환경과학회 2003년도 International Symposium on Clean Environment
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• pp.37-42
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• 2003

We have analyzed the characteristics of the sea surface winds and wind waves near the Korean marginal seas on the basis of prediction results of the sea surface winds from MM5/KMA model, which is being used for the operation system at the Korea Meteorological observation buoy data to verify the model results during Typhoon events. The correlation coefficients between the models and observation data reach up to about 95％, supporting that these models satisfactorily simulate the sea surface winds and wave heights even at the coastal regions. Based on these verification results, we have carried out numerical experiments about the wave modulation. When there exist an opposite strong current for the propagation direction of the waves or wind direction, wave height and length gets higher and shorter, and vice versa. It is proved that these modulations of wave parameters are well generated when wind speed is relatively week.

• 대기
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.341-351
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• 2022

Recently, interest in the possibility of a washout effect using artificial rain enhancement technology to reduce high-concentration fine dust is growing. Therefore, in this study, the reduction rate of PM₁₀ concentration according to the amount of artificial rain enhancement was calculated during Asian Dust event which occurred over the Korean Peninsula on March 29, 2021 using air quality model [i.e., Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ)] combined with the mesoscale model for artificial rain enhancement (i.e., WRF-MMS). According to WRF-MMS, the washout effect lasted 5 hours, and the maximum precipitation rate was calculated to be 1.5 mm hr^-1. According the CMAQ results, the PM₁₀ reduction rate was up to 22%, and the affected area was calculated to be 6.4 times greater than that of the artificial rain enhancement area. Even if the maximum amount of precipitation per hour is lowered to 0.8 mm hr^-1 (about 50% level), the PM₁₀ reduction rate appears to be up to 16%. In other words, it is believed that this technique can be used as a direct method for reducing high-concentration fine dust even when the artificial rain enhancement effect is weak.

• 대기
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.327-337
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• 2007

In this study, we examined the new ensemble training approach to reduce the systematic error and improve prediction skill of wind by using the Short-range Ensemble prediction system (SENSE), which is the mesoscale multi-model ensemble prediction system. The SENSE has 16 ensemble members based on the MM5, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM. We evaluated the skill of surface wind prediction compared with AWS (Automatic Weather Station) observation during the summer season (June - August, 2006). At first stage, the correction of initial state for each member was performed with respect to the observed values, and the corrected members get the training stage to find out an adaptive weight function, which is formulated by Root Mean Square Vector Error (RMSVE). It was found that the optimal training period was 1-day through the experiments of sensitivity to the training interval. We obtained the weighted ensemble average which reveals smaller errors of the spatial and temporal pattern of wind speed than those of the simple ensemble average.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.186-194
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• 2001

제주 지방 기상청을 대상으로 하는 지역 규모 단시간 수치예보 시스템을 구축하였다. 기상청 본청에서 하루 2회 제공되는 30 km해상도의 수치예보 자료로는 지방 기상청의 예보관들이 우리 나라와 같이 복잡한 지형에서 발생하는 그 지역의 국지 악기상을 파악하기에는 무리가 있다. 지역 규모의 고해상도 수치예보를 위해 LAPS와 MM5를 자료분석과 예보 모델로 이용하였다. LAPS는 양질의 수치예보 초기자료를 생산해 내기 위해 종관 관측 자료뿐만 아니라 위성 및 레이더 등의 비 종관 관측자료도 자료동화에 이용한다. MM5 모델은 16노드의 펜티엄 PC로 구성된 클러스터에서 수행되었으며 이 시스템은 분산병렬 클러스터 컴퓨터로 가격대비 성능이 매우 우수한 미니 슈퍼컴퓨터이다. 자료동화 모델, 수치예보 모델 그리고 PC-클러스터를 종합한 지역 규모 단시간 수치예보 시스템을 한라 단시간 예측 시스템이라 명명하였으며 이 시스템은 현재 제주 지방 기상청에서 독자적으로 운영되고 있다. 기상청 본청에서 제공되는 수치예보 정보로는 탐지할 수 없었던 1999년 7월 9일 제주 지역의 집중호우 사례에 대하여 본 시스템을 검증한 결과 모델이 예측한 강수량이 실제 강수량을 잘 재현하였다. 한라 단시간 예측 시스템은 2000년 4월부터 하루 4회 제주 지방기상청에서 독자적으로 운영되고 있다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.138-149
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• 2003

KoFlux는 생태계와 대기 사이에 교환되는 이산화탄소, 수증기 및 에너지에 대한 우리의 이해를 높이고, FLUXNET과 CEOP등의 지역, 대륙 및 전구 규모의 관측망에 기여하기 위해서 시작되었다. 그거나 한반도의 지형적 특성 때문에 KoFlux의 대부분의 플럭스 타워는 관측에 이상적이지 못한 장소에 위치하고 있다. 탄소 및 에너지 교환의 정량화를 위해서 뿐만 아니라 군락 규모에서 지역 규모로 확장하기 위해서는 관측과 모델링을 병용한 다양한 접근 방법의 적용이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 지역 규모의 현열 플럭스를 추정하기 위해 타워 플럭스 관측, 대류 경계층(CBL) 수지 방법, MM5 중규모 모형, 그리고 NCAR/NCEP 재분석 자료의 네 가지의 방법을 사용하여 다양한 면적을 대표하는 현열 플럭스를 산출하여 비교하였다. 비록 제한된 짧은 기간의 자료를 사용하였으나, 예비 분석을 통하여 (1) 해남 농경지 플럭스 타워에서 관측된 현열 플럭스가 지표의 불균질성을 보였고, (2) CBL 수지 방법으로 얻어진 지역 규모의 현열 플럭스는 수평 이류 효과의 계산 방법에 따라 다른 결과를 보였으며, (3) MM5 중규모 모형은 타워 플럭스 관측 값과 아주 유사한 현열 값을 수치 모사하였다. 그러나 관측지의 불균질성과 두 방법이 대표하는 면적의 근본적인 차이를 고려할 때, 플럭스 발자국 분석, 지리정보 시스템 및 관측지의 위성 영상 분석에 근거한 타워 플럭스의 공간 대표성을 정량화하는 것이 시급한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.274-277
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• 2008

To evaluate high-resolution wind resources for local and coastal area with complex terrain was attemped to combine the prognostic MM5 mesoscale model with CALMET diagnostic modeling this study. Firstly, MM5 was simulated for 1km resolution, nested fine domain, with FDDA using QuikSCAT seawinds data was employed to improve initial meteorological fields. Wind field and other meteorological variables from MM5 with all vertical levels used as initial guess field for CALMET. And 5 surface and 1 radio sonde observation data is performed objective analysis whole domain cells. Initial and boundary condition are given by 3 hourly RDAPS data of KMA in prognostic MM5 simulation. Geophysical data was used high-resolution terrain elevation and land cover(30 seconds) data from USGS with MM5 simulation. On the other hand SRTM 90m resolution and EGIS 30m landuse was adopted for CALMET diagnostic simulation. The simulation was performed on whole year for 2007. Vertical wind field a hour from CALMET and latest results of MM5 simulation was comparison with wind profiler(KEOP-2007 campaign) data at HAENAM site.

• 대기
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.623-637
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• 2015

The accurate analysis of water vapor in initial of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is required as one of the necessary conditions for the improvement of heavy rainfall prediction and reduction of spin-up time on a very-short-range forecast. To study this effect, the impact of a ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS)-Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) on very-short-range forecast are examined. Data assimilation experiments of GPS-PWV data from 19 sites over the Korean Peninsula were conducted with Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System (ASAPS) based on the Korea Meteorological Administration's Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) included "Hot Start" as very-short-range forecast system. The GPS total water vapor was used as constraint for integrated water vapor in a variational humidity analysis in KLAPS. Two simulations of heavy rainfall events show that the precipitation forecast have improved in terms of ETS score compared to the simulation without GPS-PWV data. In the first case, the ETS for 0.5 mm of rainfall accumulated during 3 hrs over the Seoul-Gyeonggi area shows an improvement of 0.059 for initial forecast time. In other cases, the ETS improved 0.082 for late forecast time. According to a qualitative analysis, the assimilation of GPS-PWV improved on the intensity of precipitation in the strong rain band, and reduced overestimated small amounts of precipitation on the out of rain band. In the case of heavy rainfall during the rainy season in Gyeonggi province, 8 mm accompanied by the typhoon in the case was shown to increase to 15 mm of precipitation in the southern metropolitan area. The GPS-PWV assimilation was extremely beneficial to improving the initial moisture analysis and heavy rainfall forecast within 3 hrs. The GPS-PWV data on variational data assimilation have provided more useful information to improve the predictability of precipitation for very short range forecasts.

• 대기
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.187-204
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• 2013

This study analyzed the synoptic distribution and vertical structure about four cases of precipitation occurrences using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and upper level data of winter intensive observation to be performed by National Institute of Meteorological Research at Bukgangneung, Incheon, Boseong during 63days from 4 JAN to 6 MAR in 2012, and Observing System Experiment (OSE) using 3DVAR-WRF system was conducted to examine the precipitation predictability of upper level data at western and southern coastal regions. The synoptic characteristics of selected precipitation occurrences were investigated as causes for 1) rainfall events with effect of moisture convergence owing to low pressure passing through south sea on 19 JAN, 2) snowfall events due to moisture inflowing from yellow sea with propagation of Siberian high pressure after low pressure passage over middle northern region on 31 JAN, 3) rainfall event with effect of weak pressure trough in west low and east high pressure system on 25 FEB, 4) rainfall event due to moisture inflow according to low pressures over Bohai bay and south eastern sea on 5 MAR. However, it is identified that vertical structure of atmosphere had different characteristics with heavy rainfall system in summer. Firstly, depth of convection was narrow due to absence of moisture convergence and strong ascending air current in middle layer. Secondly, warm air advection by veering wind with height only existed in low layer. Thirdly, unstable layer was limited in the narrow depth due to low surface temperature although it formed, and also values of instability indices were not high. Fourthly, total water vapor amounts containing into atmosphere was small due to low temperature distribution so that precipitable water vapor could be little amounts. As result of OSE conducting with upper level data of Incheon and Boseong station, 12 hours accumulated precipitation distributions of control experiment and experiments with additional upper level data were similar with ones of observation data at 610 stations. Although Equitable Threat Scores (ETS) were different according to cases and thresholds, it was verified positive influence of upper level data for precipitation predictability as resulting with high improvement rates of 33.3% in experiment with upper level data of Incheon (INC_EXP), 85.7% in experiment with upper level data of Boseong (BOS_EXP), and 142.9% in experiment with upper level data of both Incheon and Boseong (INC_BOS_EXP) about accumulated precipitation more than 5 mm / 12 hours on 31 January 2012.

• 대기
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.207-216
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• 2007

The Moving-nest Typhoon Model (MTM) was installed on the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)'s CRAY X1E in 2006 and started its test operation in August 2006 to provide track and intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones. In this study, feasibility of the MTM forecast is compared with the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the KMA and the operational typhoon forecast models in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), from the sixth tropical cyclone to the twentieth in 2006. Forecast skills in terms of the storm position error of the two KMA models were comparable, but MTM showed a slightly better ability. While both GDAPS and MTM produced larger errors than JMA models in track forecast, the predicted intensity was much improved by MTM, making it comparable to the JMA's typhoon forecast model. It is believed that the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) bogus initialization method in MTM improves the ability to forecast typhoon intensity.