• Journal of Wind Energy
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.54-60
• /
• 2023

In order to reveal the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of Korean and foreign wind turbines, a study was conducted for Korean onshore wind farms. Actual CapEx and OpEx data were obtained from audit reports for 26 onshore wind farms corresponding to 53.87 percent of the total onshore wind farms in Korea in the Data Analysis, Retrieval Transfer (DART) system. In addition, capacity factor (CF) data were calculated from data provided by Statistics Korea. Random numbers were generated from distributions that were fitted by the datasets, which were used as input data to perform a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The levelized fixed cost (LFC) and the levelized variable cost (LVC) were calculated from distributions of the CapEx, the OpEx and the CF. As a result, the LCOEs of the analyzed total Korean wind farms, and Korean and foreign wind turbines were 147, 148, and 146 USD/MWh, respectively. The averaged LCOE of Korea was estimated to be 4 USD/MWh lower than that of Japan, while it was much higher than German and global averages.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.119-139
• /
• 2014

A new method is proposed for random vibration anaylsis of hysteretic systems subjected to non-stationary random excitations. With the Bouc-Wen model, motion equations of hysteretic systems are first transformed into quasi-linear equations by applying the concept of equivalent excitations and decoupling of the real and hysteretic displacements, and the derived equation system can be solved by either the precise time integration or the Newmark-${\beta}$ integration method. Combining the numerical solution of the auxiliary differential equation for hysteretic displacements, an explicit iteration algorithm is then developed for the dynamic response analysis of hysteretic systems. Because the computational cost for a large number of deterministic analyses of hysteretic systems can be significantly reduced, Monte-Carlo simulation using the explicit iteration algorithm is now viable, and statistical characteristics of the non-stationary random responses of a hysteretic system can be obtained. Numerical examples are presented to show the accuracy and efficiency of the present approach.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
• /
• v.55 no.9
• /
• pp.384-391
• /
• 2006

The harmonic currents generated along with the operating speed of electrical railroad traction are very difficult to analyze because of its nonlinear characteristics. This paper therefore presents probabilistic approach for the evaluation of harmonic currents about the operating speed of the arbitrary single traction. To use probabilistic method for railroad system, PDF(Probability Density Function) using measuring data based on the realistic h 따 monic currents per operating speed is calculated. Measuring data of harmonic current per operating speed is obtained using the result data of PSCAD/EMTDC dynamic simulation based on an IAT(Intra Airport Transit) in Incheon International Airport. The means(expected values) and variances of harmonic currents of single traction also are obtained by the PDF of the operating traction speed and harmonic currents. The uncertainty of harmonic currents can be calculated through the mean and variance of PDF. The probability of harmonic currents generated with the operating of arbitrary many tractions is calculated by the convolution of functions. The harmonics of different number of tractions are systematically investigated to assess the TDD(Total Demand Distortion) for the railroad system. The calculation of TDD was carried out using Monte-Carlo Simulations(MSCs) and the results of TDD evaluation of the power quality in the IAT power feeding system.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
• /
• v.1 no.4
• /
• pp.337-353
• /
• 2011

In the present study, an offshore platform having large partial porous cylindrical members, which are composed of permeable and impermeable cylinders, is suggested. In order to calculate the wave force on large partial porous cylindrical members, the fluid domain is divided into three regions: a single exterior region, N inner regions and N beneath regions, and the scattering wave in each fluid region is expressed by an Eigen-function expansion method. Applying Darcy's law to the porous boundary condition, the effect of porosity is simplified. Wave excitation forces and wave run up on the structures are presented for various wave conditions. For the idealized three-dimensional platform having large partial porous cylindrical members, the dynamic response evaluations of the platform due to wave forces are carried out through the modal analysis. In order to examine the effects of soil-structure interaction, the substructure method is also applied. The displacement and bending stress at the selective nodal points of the structure are computed using various input parameters, such as the shear-wave velocity of soil, the wave height and the wave period. Applying the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method, the reliability evaluations at critical structure members, which contained uncertainties caused by dynamic forces and structural properties, are examined by the reliability index with the results obtained from MCS.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
• /
• v.19 no.8
• /
• pp.70-76
• /
• 2005

Unlike the large sized generations of transmission system, the distributed generations have complexities in analyzing and determining model. This paper resents an analytical method for the reliability evaluation of distribution system, including the distributed generations. The method using Load Duration Curve model is simpler than the Monte-Carlo Simulation and is more accurate than that using peak load model. The modeling of distributed generation to analysis reliability of customers using LDC is proposed in this paper, and is compared with the MCS method as a result of case studies.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.54 no.8
• /
• pp.3073-3084
• /
• 2022

The propagation of radiation source uncertainties in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) cask shielding calculations is presented in this paper. The uncertainty propagation employs the depletion and source term outputs of the deterministic code STREAM as input to the transport simulation of the Monte Carlo (MC) codes MCS and MCNP6. The uncertainties of dose rate coming from two sources: nuclear data and modeling parameters, are quantified. The nuclear data uncertainties are obtained from the stochastic sampling of the cross-section covariance and perturbed fission product yields. Uncertainties induced by perturbed modeling parameters consider the design parameters and operating conditions. Uncertainties coming from the two sources result in perturbed depleted nuclide inventories and radiation source terms which are then propagated to the dose rate on the cask surface. The uncertainty analysis results show that the neutron and secondary photon dose have uncertainties which are dominated by the cross section and modeling parameters, while the fission yields have relatively insignificant effect. Besides, the primary photon dose is mostly influenced by the fission yield and modeling parameters, while the cross-section data have a relatively negligible effect. Moreover, the neutron, secondary photon, and primary photon dose can have uncertainties up to about 13%, 14%, and 6%, respectively.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.263-274
• /
• 2011

A reliability-based slope stability assessment method considering fluctuations in the monitored matric suction was proposed for real-time identification of slope risk. The assessment model was based on the limit equilibrium model for infinite slope failure. The first-order reliability method (FORM) was adopted to calculate the probability of slope failure, and results of the model were compared with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) results to validate the accuracy and efficiency of the model. The analysis shows that a model based on Advanced First-Order Reliability Method (AFORM) generates results that are in relatively good agreement with those of the MCS, using a relatively small number of function calls. The contribution of random variables to the slope reliability index was also examined using sensitivity analysis. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the effective cohesion c' is a significant variable at low values of mean matric suction, whereas matric suction ($u_a-u_w$) is the most influential factor at high mean suction values. Finally, the reliability indices of an unsaturated model soil slope, which was monitored by a wireless matric suction measurement system, were illustrated as 2D images using the suggested probabilistic model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.37 no.3
• /
• pp.195-206
• /
• 2004

One of the main factors which reduces the efficiency of a sewage treatment plant is the Inflow/Infiltration(Ⅰ/Ⅰ) in the sewer First we must calculate the quantity of Ⅰ/Ⅰ via the investigation of each sewer to establish the reduction plan of Ⅰ/Ⅰ. However, in Korea, we apply the results of a surveyed sample to the entire study area to establish the reduction plan of Ⅰ/Ⅰ. This methodology just considers the total Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the entire study area but it does not consider the quantity of Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the individual sewer systems. Therefore, we may need the model to consider the Ⅰ/Ⅰ in the individual sewer systems and we develop the model to calculate the Ⅰ/Ⅰ that happen in urban sewer systems. We estimate the Ⅰ/Ⅰ of individual systems by the developed model and the estimated Ⅰ/Ⅰ are utilized as the basic data for the establishment of Ⅰ/Ⅰ reduction plan. The observed Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the entire study area is distributed into the individual sewer systems according to their defect states. Here, the weights of defect elements are calculated using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and we perform the uncertainty analysis for considering the errors using MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation).

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
• /
• v.3 no.4
• /
• pp.471-502
• /
• 2016

This paper presents the dynamic instability analysis of un-damped elastically supported piezoelectric functionally graded (FG) beams subjected to in-plane static and dynamic periodic thermomechanical loadings with uncertain system properties. The elastic foundation model is assumed as one parameter Pasternak foundation with Winkler cubic nonlinearity. The piezoelectric FG beam is subjected to non-uniform temperature distribution with temperature dependent material properties. The Young's modulus and Poison's ratio of ceramic, metal and piezoelectric, density of respective ceramic and metal, volume fraction exponent and foundation parameters are taken as uncertain system properties. The basic nonlinear formulation of the beam is based on higher order shear deformation theory (HSDT) with von-Karman strain kinematics. The governing deterministic static and dynamic random instability equation and regions is solved by Bolotin's approach with Newmark's time integration method combined with first order perturbation technique (FOPT). Typical numerical results in terms of the mean and standard deviation of dynamic instability analysis are presented to examine the effect of slenderness ratios, volume fraction exponents, foundation parameters, amplitude ratios, temperature increments and position of piezoelectric layers by changing the random system properties. The correctness of the present stochastic model is examined by comparing the results with direct Monte Caro simulation (MCS).

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.20 no.6
• /
• pp.609-630
• /
• 2005

A reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper through a combination of the advantages of the response surface method (RSM), finite element method (FEM), first order reliability method (FORM) and the importance sampling updating method. The accuracy and efficiency of the method is demonstrated through several numerical examples. Then the method is used to estimate the serviceability reliability of cable-stayed bridges. Effects of geometric nonlinearity, randomness in loading, material, and geometry are considered. The example cable-stayed bridge is the Second Nanjing Bridge with a main span length of 628 m built in China. The results show that the cable sag that is part of the geometric nonlinearities of cable-stayed bridges has a major effect on the reliability of cable-stayed bridge. Finally, the most influential random variables on the reliability of cable-stayed bridges are identified by using a sensitivity analysis.