• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.1-13
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• 2023

Demand forecasting is a crucial task for an online retail where has to manage daily fresh foods effectively. Failing in forecasting results loss of profitability because of incompetent inventory management. This study investigated the optimal performance of different forecasting models for a very short shelf-life product. Demand data of 13 perishable items with aging of 210 days were used for analysis. Our comparison results of four methods: Trivial Identity, Seasonal Naïve, Feed-Forward and Autoregressive Recurrent Neural Networks (DeepAR) reveals that DeepAR outperforms with the lowest MAPE. This study also suggests the managerial implications by employing coefficient of variation (CV) as demand variation indicators. Three classes: Low, Medium and High variation are introduced for classify 13 products into groups. Our analysis found that DeepAR is suitable for medium and high variations, while the low group can use any methods. With this approach, the case can gain benefit of better fill-rate performance.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.45-56
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• 2024

The weakening effect of water on rocks is one of the main factors inducing deformation and failure in rock engineering. To clarify this weakening effect, immersion tests and post-immersion triaxial compression tests were conducted on sandstone and mudstone. The results showed that the strength of water-immersed sandstone decreases with increasing immersion time, exhibiting an exponential relationship. Similarly, the strength of water-immersed mudstone decreases with increasing environmental humidity, also following an exponential relationship. Subsequently, a statistical damage model for water-weakened rocks was proposed, changes in elastic modulus to describe the weakening effect of water. The model effectively simulated the stress-strain relationships of water-affected sandstone and mudstone under compression. The R² values between the theoretical and experimental peak values ranged from 0.962 to 0.996, and the MAPE values fell between 3.589% and 9.166%, demonstrating the model's effectiveness and reliability. The damage process of water-saturated rocks corresponds to five stages: compaction stage - no damage, elastic stage - minor damage, crack development stage - rapid damage increase, post-peak residual stage - continuous damage increase, and sliding stage - damage completion. This study provides a foundational reference for researching the fracture characteristics of overlying strata during coal mining under complex hydrogeological conditions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.68-74
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• 2024

This study develops a model to determine the input rate of the chemical for coagulation and flocculation process (i.e. coagulant) at industrial water treatment plant, based on real-world data. To detect outliers among the collected data, a two-phase algorithm with standardization transformation and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) is applied. In addition, both of the missing data and outliers are revised with linear interpolation. To determine the coagulant rate, various kinds of machine learning models are tested as well as linear regression. Among them, the random forest model with min-max scaled data provides the best performance, whose MSE, MAPE, R² and CVRMSE are 1.136, 0.111, 0.912, and 18.704, respectively. This study demonstrates the practical applicability of machine learning based chemical input decision model, which can lead to a smart management and response systems for clean and safe water treatment plant.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.66-79
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• 2024

The model developed in this study holds significant importance in predicting carbon emissions in maritime transport. By utilizing ship data and EEDI (Energy Efficiency Design Index) guidelines, the model presents a highly accurate prediction tool, providing a solid foundation for maximizing operational efficiency and effectively managing carbon emissions in ship operations. The model's accuracy was demonstrated by an R² score of 0.95 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.4%. Through SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), it was identified that Speed Over Ground and relative wind speed are the most significant variables, both showing a positive correlation with increased CO2 emissions. Additionally, environmental factors such as exceeding an average draft of 22(m), a Leeway over 5°, and a current angle exceeding 200° were found to increase emissions significantly. Specific ranges of wind and swell wave angles also notably affected emissions. Conversely, lower pitch, roll, and rudder angle were associated with reduced emissions, indicating that stable ship operation enhances efficiency.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.835-845
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• 2013

Travel-time is considered the most typical and preferred traffic information for intelligent transportation systems(ITS). This paper proposes a real-time travel-time prediction method for a national highway. In this paper, the K-nearest neighbor(KNN) method is used for travel time prediction. The KNN method (a nonparametric method) is appropriate for a real-time traffic management system because the method needs no additional assumptions or parameter calibration. The performances of various models are compared based on mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and coefficient of variation(CV). In real application, the analysis of real traffic data collected from Korean national highways indicates that the proposed model outperforms other prediction models such as the historical average model and the Kalman filter model. It is expected to improve travel-time reliability by flexibly using travel-time from the proposed model with travel-time from the interval detectors.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.230-237
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• 2018

Purpose: In Korea, traffic information is collected in real time as part of Intelligent Transportation System to enhance efficiency of road operation. However, traffic information based on real-time data is different from the traffic situation the driver will experience. Method: In this study, forecasts were made for future highway traffic by day and time period by adjusting the Archived data reference days to 3, 5 and 10 days based on existing traffic Archived data. Results: Fewer days of reference in the past showed smaller errors. The prediction of Monday based on five past histories showed greater errors than the 10 past histories, as the traffic flow on the sixth Monday of 2016 was somewhat different from the usual holiday. Conclution: This study shows that less of the reference days of the past history when estimating traffic volume, the more accurate the data of the traffic history of the event can be used on special days.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.383-392
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• 2007

In this paper, we study the prediction of depth and width of a defect in steam generator tube in nuclear power plant using neural network. To this end, we first generate eddy current testing (ECT) signals for 4 defect patterns of SG tube: I-In type, I-Out type, V-In type, and V-Out type. In particular, we generate 400 ECT signals for various widths and depths for each defect type by the numerical analysis program based on finite element modeling. From those generated ECT signals, we extract new feature vectors for the prediction of defect size, which include the angle between the two points where the maximum impedance and half the maximum impedance are achieved. Using the extracted feature vector, multi-layer perceptron with one hidden layer is used to predict the size of defects. Through the computer simulation study, it is shown that the proposed method achieves decent prediction performance in terms of maximum error and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

• Journal of the korean society of oceanography
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.46-56
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• 2004

Spectral attenuation of light and upwelling radiance were measured in the western coast of Korea on board the R/V Inchon 888 of the Korean National Fisheries Research and Development Institute(NFRDI) during four seasons. The goal of these efforts was to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of the inherent and apparent optical properties of the water, and the factors that control their distribution. Our data indicate that while stratification of the water column, phytoplankton, and wind stress determined the vertical distribution of the optical parameters offshore, it was the tidal current and sediment type that controlled both the vertical and horizontal distribution in the coastal areas. These findings led to the development of a model that estimates the spectral attenuation of light with respect to depth and time for the Yellow Sea. The model integrates water leaving radiance from satellites, sediment types, current vectors, sigma-t, bathymetry, and in situ optical measurements in a learning algorithm capable of extracting optical properties with only knowledge of the environmental conditions of the Yellow Sea. The performance of the model decreases with increase in depth. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 2% for the upper five meters, 8-10% between 6 and 50 meters, and 15% below 51 meters.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.125-132
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• 2009

The paradigm of economy has been transformed into knowledge based economic paradigm in 21th century. Analysis of patent trend is one of the strategic methods for increasing their patent competitive power. However, this method is just presenting statistical data about patent trend or qualitative analysis about some core technology. In this paper, we forecast technology diffusion using patent information for more progressive analysis. We make an experiment with bass model and logistic model and make use of patent data about information-security technology for NCW as input data. We conclude that the logistic model is more efficient for forecasting and this technology is approaching to the age of technology maturity.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.17 no.11
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• pp.93-101
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• 2019

Purpose: Blockchain technology suggests ways to solve the problems in the existing industry. Among them, Cryptocurrency system, which is an element of Blockchain technology, is a very important factor for operating Blockchain. While Blockchain cryptocurrency has attracted attention, studies on cryptocurrency prices have been mainly conducted, however previous studies mainly conducted on Bitcoin prices. On the other hand, in the context of the creation and trading of various cryptocurrencies based on the Blockchain system, little research has been done on cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. Hence, this study attempts to find variables related to the prices of Dash, Litecoin, and Monero cryptocurrencies using machine learning techniques. We also attempt to find differences in the variables related to the prices for each cryptocurrencies and to examine machine learning techniques that can provide better performance. Research design, data, and methodology: This study performed Dash, Litecoin, and Monero price prediction analysis of cryptocurrency using Blockchain information and machine learning techniques. We employed number of transactions in Blockchain, amount of generated cryptocurrency, transaction fees, number of activity accounts in Blockchain, Block creation difficulty, block size, umber of created blocks as independent variables. This study tried to ensure the reliability of the analysis results through 10-fold cross validation. Blockchain information was hierarchically added for price prediction, and the analysis result was measured as RMSE and MAPE. Results: The analysis shows that the prices of Dash, Litecoin and Monero cryptocurrency are related to Blockchain information. Also, we found that different Blockchain information improves the analysis results for each cryptocurrency. In addition, this study found that the neural network machine learning technique provides better analysis results than support-vector machine in predicting cryptocurrency prices. Conclusion: This study concludes that the information of Blockchain should be considered for the prediction of the price of Dash, Litecoin, and Monero cryptocurrency. It also suggests that Blockchain information related to the price of cryptocurrency differs depending on the type of cryptocurrency. We suggest that future research on various types of cryptocurrencies is needed. The findings of this study can provide a theoretical basis for future cryptocurrency research in distribution management.